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Here Comes The "China Hard Landing" - Full Bank Of America Presentation Slides
Earlier today Bank of America released a presentation and a conference call in which the firm's head of China equity strategy David Cui spoke about the dreaded "China Hard Landing" or the event that would kill all decoupling dreams for ever and ever, and probably lead to a world depression. It seems that the latest down move in the market is being partially attributed to just this notification finally making the rounds as can be seen in the note below: "BofAML’s David Cui is the Markets’ #1 rated China Strategist according to the 2011 Institutional Investor All-China Survey. While he is not responsible for our China GDP forecast, he sees significant Chinese specific financial market risks that could trigger lower than expected Chinese growth. He sees that those financial market risks as having increased considerably. He will expand on this on the call, but he sees these financial stresses as having a very high probability of triggering lower than expected growth. That lower growth could well be sub 7%, and therefore by Chinese market standards would be termed a “hard landing”, clearly a HUGE issue for all global markets." Granted this is not news to those who have been following the Chinese situation (as fringe blogs have been for over a year), but the market does tend to have a habit of being about 12-18 months behind the curve. Here is what Bank of America had to say...
From Bank of America:
Fitch's head of sovereign rating Andrew Colquhoun commented that in the near term, the biggest risk to China's sovereign rating is the banking sector.
BofAML’s David Cui was ahead of the curve on this one:
He believes that there is still a large downside risk in China.
David believes that there is a good probability of a hard landing, he highlights timing associated with this could be past 2013 with the new administration.
After 3 years of loose monetary policy David doesn't think it would be wise for the government to ease from here and if what David fears about the underlying lending markets materializes then more aggressive drop is quite possible.
The anecdotes coming from this underground market are really serious and although some technical rebound for equities is probably due, this shouldn't be taken as an actual turning point.
Furthermore, copper is said to be the commodity with a “PHD in Economics”…. Look what it is telling us:
And the full presentation given to clients as part of BAC's 9 am conference call:
h/t Converttrader
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Dr. Copper needs to go see a specialist, like Dr. Silver or Dr. Gold.
Looks like Dr Silver and Dr Gold are under investigation for malpractice
Why not make an appointment with Dr Doom?
Because he does not seem to keep his appointments. Where the hell is he!?
trying to divert attention from their own inevitable hard landing
At first I was confused if that was a BAC chart.
emerging. markits. bitchez.
It's the demerging market that is causing most headlines at the moment.
The SUBmerging market?
BTW, nice rotor....:)
@Comay Mierda agree.
do we really want to read any material published by any banks or entities that needed a bail out???
BoA seems to be more forthright, lately. Maybe they know they are going down, and have decided to tell the (partial) truth.
Classic diversionary tactic.
This is schoolyard stuff.
Teacher catches kid being naughty, kid dobs on 3 others who were helping.
Prisoner's dillemma applies too.
The one who cooperates in exposing others is treated less harshly.
Once they dob though, everyone has motivation to dob. The last one to hold out cops it worst.
I still remember one day in high school (approx 14yo) being caught with mock posters suggesting our school was a nazi organisation run by the Hitler moustache wearing female principal. Crude, but amusing to us.
Well, they knew I didn't have the skills to make the poster, so they pressured me to tell. Telling me I'd be suspended for longer if I didn't. It clicked that that's all they could do. That if I dobbed, then 4-5 other friends were going to get suspended too and I had no guarantee they weren't lying to me. I explained to them that the overall punishment would be lower if I took all the blame. 2 days definitely vs 4-10 days(if they were lying) spread evenly. They didn't really like that but there wasnt much they could do.
I gained some respect that day.
You gained some respect, but I'll bet later that day the Principal was researching the cost of installing cameras in all the lockers....
Principal = King George
You= Thomas Paine.
If that happened today you would be arrested and interrogated by department of homeland security or the FBI and put on the list.....labeled a domestic terrorist.
Times have changed haven't they?
Not in my country.
Which I'd guess is Australia, from "dob," maybe also "click," and the avatar (de Vlamingh). If I'm wrong I'll eat Vegemite. Which I'd rather not. Could probably find some where I'm at though.
Deflation bitchez?
Steve Roach is one of the few analysts/economists I believe when it comes to China He was the #1 MS economist for Asia up until recently and lived in Beijing.
Please interview him about China...not a BAC person.
Plus, OzLand is leveraged 40:1 based on China's growth. For every little drop in China's demand for materials, OzLand will feel lots more pain imo. Their RE is already sinking....
GL!
Is it a surprise that the Chinese economy fails?
"Made In China"
The only question is when and what else it takes down (and how much fire, explosions, dead fish people, etc.)
Anytime anyone says anything bad about China or Israel on this site it generates a lot of junks. There wouldn't be prying eyes from those countries here, would there?
Screw China, it's the ultimate bubble resting upon the Great Bubbles that are popping in the West. It's over Hop Sing. You don't get the Century of China, and you certainly don't get laid because your One Child policy led to all the girls being aborted. All you got from all that work was a polluted landscape, corruption, bankrupt provinces, soon to be hollowed out industries, and trade barriers going up.
You, no trouble! Go now to ghost city and cry on pillow.
Awwww, those damned fringe blogs!!
if you can't stop them, join them.
China will just print, and build to timbuktu.
When inflation goes bonkers they'll then try price controls, they've already tried it with diesel and alcohol, matter of time before they try it elsewhere.
That bitch has still got some legs in it yet.
China will just print, and build to timbuktu.
and paint thin the milk
and add plastic to the rice...
Don't forget the lead painted toys for tots.
Chinese Ghost Cities Bitchez
fake economic growth!
China's Ghost Cities and Mallshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E
A great deal of China’s economic growth has been through the strategy of the government building massive cities and universities that there is no demand for. All of the materials and labor that goes into these massive projects improves GDP. Unfortunately, its led to an estimated 64 million empty apartment units in China that are too expensive for most Chinese families to afford (there is only a little over 30 million multi-unit housing units in the U.S.). Occupancy rates in these new cities are at less than 25%. And the ‘world’s largest shopping mall’ is almost completely empty.
There is even an aerial photo of the Yunan University – built to accommodate 2.3 million students. How many students actually attend? 11,000.
All of this could ultimately result in a few little problems for China:
If this is what it takes to maintain economic growth… then China has some big problems.
Wake TF up
step 1: build ghost cities
step 2: ?
step 3: PROFIT!
The GhostCity Gnomes?
HA! You got two junks for that. Suck it Chinese trolls. Put the truth in your egg rolls and shove it.
Hey, why is it everytime your f'd up military shoots someone down in international airspace they have to appologize to you?
How is it you draw a line in the China Sea, claiming distant territory for your own, that is so tortured in shape it would make a redistricting politician blush. Your claims over these islands are based on POTTERY shards? LOL, nation of bullies and theives.
You must appologize now to Smiddywesson for your barbarian antics.
The Middle Kingdom has been around for over 5,000 years.
How long has BAC been around?
BAC survives on pushing paper around...China thrives on production.
Who will Bite the Dust first?
Well, China has imploded more times than Bank of America, has had more peasant rebellions than BofA, has been conquered more times than BofA, is definately more corrupt than BofA... I vote China with BofA hot on its heels.
The land has been there for 5000 years, the system of government hasn't. And that government is scared, otherwise it wouldn't have had to censer the media and kick out Google. You throw out the "Middle Kingdom" baloney like it's one people. There are 292 languages spoken in China. There aren't any "Chinese." There are a huge number of diverse groups being held together at the point of a bayonet and the promise of "The Century of China." Well, guess what? You aren't getting your Century of China because it was built on a pipe dream that the world wasn't going to change and you would perpetually benefit from the current monetary and trade system. That system is over, so I'd be surprised if there even IS a China in another 50 years.
Message to Blythe and other scum out there.
Cover all your shorts now or get totally blown out of the water when volume overtakes you as Asians and Europe en-mass flee uncertainty and a destituter Euro for gold, silver...
CNBS see's it more important to NOT mention China. It takes too much time away from slamming Whitney's muni-bond call "one year later" every 5 minutes. Because if she's wrong in exactly one calendar year then obviously the economy is getting better.
Gee, do ya think CNBS will bring on all the "Dow 600,000/SPX 20,000" "contributors" they parade daily to slam them "one year later"?
I hate those CNBS shillfucs!
Then don't watch it.
If there is an expert out there in "hard landings", it is Bank of America...
Sub 7% growth is a hard landing?
When food inflation can hit 15% and you spend 40% of your income on food, it is.
If the housing bubble is as big as suggested than a blow off could cause the Chinese economy to actually shrink.
Collapse. When you are accustomed to a $10 million dollar salary each year, and your salary is cut to $8 million, you go bust.
Big collapse event is drawing near -- all these Truth Tellers coming out of the closet to point their finger so they arent guilty by ommission; or maybe so they can build some last minute credibility and look like Financial Jimmy the Greeks when they hang up their shingle and try and get into business after financial armagedon.
There are problems in China. And Chinese stocks both in Shanghai and Hongkong are in bear territory.
However, using the materials that presented by BOfAML to prove anything is laughable. What is wrong is not what he presented. What he presented is collection of garbage data good for American investment banking circle. Just like CIA could not predict the breakup of the Soviet Union, the I-Bank types could not do anything useful today.
"China Hard Landing" blahh blahh blahh
It's a JOKE. 8-9% growth rate expected in
2011-2012, as of now China experienced power shortages, that's how
"slow" China is moving. Pork, Agriculture product shortages as well.
I won't be left holding the bag of fried rice, wantons, sweet-sour pork, euro bonds, etc.
Fuck it. Nominal GDP growth is purely bullshit for those brainwashed yo-yos. China's REAL GDP growth has been negative for the entire year so far.
Yes, their numbers are bullshit. Don't listen to what they say, watch what they do. The very fact they buildt all that infrastructure like the ghost cities shows their desperation. I ask you thi, does a nation that is experiencing growth like they claimed to be enjoying EVER build ghost cities, malls that go empty, empty office buidings, railroads to nowhere. They are starting to crack.
And for anyone who thinks they have incredible business minds, like they did the Japanese before they blew up, I smell a large measure of Keynes in their actions. They are no smarter than anyone else.
China is evolving, bitchez! Mind your own biz and worry about your own backyard! *L*
you are the greater fool.
Why don't you just come out and say it, just call us "barbarians." That's your name for everybody, right?
Mind your own business is what you always say, except when you are poking around in other people's business. Like when you are stealing territory in the South China Sea? Like when you are building aircraft carriers and threatening your neighbors?
Appologize. You must show humility and appologize.
Economically, the entire world IS my backyard. Fsck you. But I probably already did, since I probably got those FXI and TAO shares I shorted from ya.
China will rely on regional warz to get its shit going for another while. Should I suggest the upcoming conflict in the South China Sea?
China Warns Asia Not to Hide Behind U.S. Militaryhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-28/china-warns-asia-not-to-hide-behind-u-s-military.html
China should remember that the United States was drawn into the Second World War by America's defense of China in the face of Japanese occupation. But for America, the leaders in China would all be speaking Japanese and reporting to Tokyo.
My memory of history is kind of hazy right now. But from what I read it was Rockefellers that favored strong China and anti-Japanese policy in the years leading to the WWII. Rockefellers envisioned an economically strong China that could be engine of growth in the Far East because Rockefellers had their agents successfully planted in both sides of the Chinese Nationalist Government in Nanking and the Mao's Communists government in the northwest. In fact, the Chinese Communist Party was initially financed and started by the Rockefellers themselves through one of their German agents under the cover of the Communist International based in Moscow, another Rockefeller-financed institution. Rockefellers also successfully installed all key US government posts with their own agents. Partially Rockefellers feared Japanese oil interests took away their lucrative business in Asia, and more precisely the Japanese state-owned central banking model, which was in the direct collision course with Anglo-Saxon Banking Cartel's blood-sucking model. The Japanese tried to appease the international jewry by allowing Jews from Hilter's Europea to settle in the Japanese-occupied Harbin in Manchuria and Shanghai in the southeran China. However, the international jewry and their masters basically said no thanks to Japs.
Shame on you.
it's nice to hear from 'expert economists' from the large Banks on this and that looking a tad bankrupt
it's a bit like hearing from the pissed-as-a-fart look-out in the crows nest on the Titanic telling you how to respect him because he's got such a high responsibility job as the iceberg looms large behind his scrawny kneck !
War is coming...
Correlated risks. We all go down together.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
a lot of the tbtf multinationals are joined at the hip with China. the hard landing (which i agree with) will take many of them down with it. i think it will be a good thing in the long run.
Every once in a while, for the newbs, I like to remind folks that there is not a SINGLE accurate figure coming out of China. In China, the Party would have bailed out GM and no one would known it was in trouble in the first place. In China there is NO audit, NO review process and if you make a convincing challenge to authority (like whistle blowing), you lose your nice apartment and Audi and family.
The difference, in China, between a mass slaughter of citizens and a normal day is a video camera.
About 3-4 years ago every damn news organization globally started analyzing figures from China like they meant something...they do not. Period.
The PRC has trolls on this site - fuck you - I've spent 25 years in China.
Absolutely, if you bad mouth China or Israel, you immediately get attacked. That can't be a coincidence.
All the major economies are tied together and will fail together. They have counterparty risk, their trade is dependent upon the economies of their trading parters, even their currency reserves are denominated in the currencies of their trading partners. If the West collapses, so do the Chinese.
Good points. I'm not sure the PRC has any paid trolls here, but I do suspect a few posters have a little too much ego in the game, either from an ethnic pride point of view or a strong spouse.
I remember back a decade or so ago the Chinese government released a quarterly GDP figure the last week of December. I marveled at their "efficiency". Ever since I have been confident that ignoring whatever they say does no harm. I also know that if a regional official is told to achieve a certain target, he will achieve that target and never let something as inconsequential and irrelevant as reality get in the way.
I think that with China's emergence on to the international stage, they have been surprised that some people actually dare to question anything they might say. Being a self-appointed and answerable to no one ruling elite will do that. The same mindset might have spread to the general populace. That may be why so many frauds are uncovered in the US IPO market, though sometimes a little too late for certain hedge funds.
I wonder just how profitable Chinese companies really are if one backs out both the artistic accounting and the gains from real estate speculation. I would not be surprised if the best of them was about as profitable as BAC, and that all growth is debt driven and money supply driven.
Sometimes outsiders simply want to believe. They want to believe there is a savior out there, either to run a robust economy or pour bucketloads of money into someone else's losing venture, like the EU experiment. Then there's those huge reserves....how many times do we see someone who confuses reserves with savings, as if it represents some great treasure chest of cash that can be deployed at will? People forget that reserves are primarily the proceeds from foreign sales, which might actually represent a loss for the selling firm.
I was surprised, and then again not so surprised, when I found out that all of the large external resource investments---some of which cost well more than a billion dollars---are carried out without even putting together a feasibility study. They just wing it. I doubt they even know what their costs are, and even if they do, they operate under the assumption that a margin is guaranteed.
People sometimes try to compare China's rise and current status to what Japan was in the late 1980's. While there are some similarities, I don't think they compare well across the board. Japan was actually innovative and had some cutting edge technology. Japan also had as part of its culture a pride in the quality of its product and had a never ending quest to improve. China's pride seems more a function of the image it can create, not what actually stands behind the image. I see it as a land that tried very hard to rest on ancient accomplishments, so as to try to hide the fact that the largest population of Earth has largely been absent from the "long march" of human progress since the Renaissance.
Sometimes a pile of rocks is just a pile of rocks, no matter how long it might be. If I had to guess, I'd say that we might look back in a hundred years and compare China to the comet Kahoutek: lots of smoke, no sizzle.....and poof! It's gone for another thousand years.
Would you please provide a direct link to the article at Scribd instead of just embedding the PDF here (which is for some reason slowing my browser down to a crawl every time I scroll by it or through it). And please make that standard policy.
Two-child policy imminent.
LOLs LOLs
"china hard lending" is bankster wet dream
ha ha ha
Get ready for the Fed paid trolls. They want to moniter the Internet now. Why a central bank has an honest need for that is easy to answer. It's not an honest need.
Smiddy, put on your deepest sarc tag and look at this possibility...it's intended to be funny (yeah, we know it isn't).
Suppose the fed has figured out they don't know squat about all this, how it all interacts, what unintended consequences their actions have. After all, we all know.
And if they look at the results of their recent actions honestly, which occasionally does occur with academics, they have to know that we know what's going on better than they do, and the results of their actions better than they do.
So, perhaps they just want a real education? And the only place to get that is from people who DO know. Which of course, would be us. So in everyone's best interest, they want free advice that's better than what they can generate internally -- our groupthink would qualify easily. But of course, they don't want to admit any of it, and want to be able to see only such truth as they can selectively accept without their heads blowing up.
Nice theory if you like the rose colored glasses. I like my S&W yellow ones better though.
two unmistakable warnings Asia Trading yesterday: 1. Major Yuan liquidation 2. Short selling is increasing on the Hang Seng (HSI index)
mixed with huge commodity sell off last few weeks which had NOTHING to do with a micro/nothing country that should be booted out of the EU
I have been in china for 8 years,
With 1.3 billion people you have to be long term planning and to buid futtre infrastructure is the SMARTEST thing you can do. the bigger the wheel the slower it turns.
If you had money and the banks give you no interest on deposit, what would you do? Build a business and business projects can easily take 3 to 5 years.
there is a tsunami of young people 25 to 30 years old who want a home!
Build it and they DO come!
there is no jobs for the young people, so there is no housing for them any time soon.
I am not sure what the China's motive is here. But I can tell you that, it can't grow for ever and when it will bust. Only way to put all those people to work, is to go to war or have alien invasions. yes i said it. lol
the average farmer jas 150,000 rmb in the bank the average american has 3000. dollar. The parents buy the house or the down and zero home owners are underwater at this tiime, Yes the bubble is huge.
There is no street people, anywhere! some anti socials but zero children on the street.
When you get tired of leanding your customer money or the net keeps rising you need to spend it for your future the sooner you plan the better.
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