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Here Comes Europe's Hail Mary - Presenting The "Redemption Fund"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A week ago, Zero Hedge brought up the last Hail Mary available in Europe's fiscal arsenal: the Redemption Fund. Specifically we said, " There are currently three options being discussed for the Stabilittee bonds - all of which have more than short-term time horizons for any potential implementation and so we suspect, as CS mentions, that the talk of the Redemption Fund from the German Council of Economic Experts will grow louder as an interim step" and quoting Credit Suisse, " One proposal that might be able to co-exist with the Treaties as they are is the recommendation of the German Council of Economic Experts, pooling sovereign debt in a Redemption Fund as we discussed briefly last week. We are quite surprised that the idea does not seem to have generated more traction in the press since it is one of few proposals that actually provides a means for reducing debt (rather than moving it around the euro area) and is aimed not to fall foul of the German Constitution. Something based around this idea might be a contender for a precursor to permanent Eurobonds, buying time while the Treaties are changed." Sure enough here is Reuters showing that it only took Germany one week to catch up to what our readers already knew, from Reuters: "Germany will propose setting up special national funds for euro zone sovereign debt that is over 60 percent of gross domestic product to help build market confidence, the country's finance minister said on Thursday. Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters that Germany would make the proposal at a European Union summit next week. The funds should be supported by public revenues and dismantled within 20 years, he said." In other words even Europe now admits that the EFSF as even as stop gap measure to fill the void before the ECB acquiesces to print, is dead, and is looking at the last measure available to fix the fundamental problem at the heart of the Eurozone (yesterday's liquidity band aid is just that) which is the rolling of untenable amounts of leverage. Unfortunately, the core provision of Schauble's redemption fund variation which is that the fund is national, "which would get around German concerns about the "communitarization" of debt between European states" means that the idea is hardly unlikely to pick up as it relies on already insolvent countries to fund it. If this is indeed the final backstop to be presented at the European Summit, it may be time to turn bearish on Europe all over again, today's surging sovereign bond prices notwithstanding.

And here is Morgan Stanley with some more perspectives:

Debt redemption pact and safe bonds

 

As a specific example of the partial issuance approach, the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) presented in their Annual Report 2011/1224 a proposal for safe bonds that is a part of a euro-area wide debt reduction strategy aimed at bringing the level of government indebtedness back below the 60% ceiling as put in the Maastricht Treaty.

 

One of the pillars of the strategy is a so-called debt redemption fund. The redemption fund would pool government debt exceeding 60% of individual countries' GDP of euro area Member States. It would be based on joint liability. Each participating country would, under a defined a consolidation path, be obliged to autonomously redeem the transferred debt over a period of 20 to 25 years. The joint liability during the repayment phase means that safe bonds would thereby be created. In practice, the redemption fund would issue safe bonds and the proceeds would be used by participating countries to cover their pre-agreed current financing needs for the redemption of outstanding bonds and new borrowing. Therefore, the debt transfer would occur gradually over around five years. Member States with debt above 60% of GDP would therefore not have to seek financing on the market during the roll-in phase as long as the pre-agreed debt reduction path was adhered to. After the roll-in phase, the outstanding debt levels in the euro area would comprise: (i) national debt up to 60% of a country's GDP, and (ii) debt transferred to the redemption fund amounting to the remainder of the debt at the time of transfer. Open questions remain, for example on the fund's risk, and the impact on the de facto seniority from collateralisation of the fund's bonds.

 

The GCEE debt redemption pact combines (temporary) common issuance and strict rules on fiscal adjustment. They do not constitute a proposal for Stability Bonds in the meaning of this Green Paper, in the sense that common issuance would be temporary and used only for Member States with public debt ratios above 60% of GDP. Instead, the GCEE proposes to introduce a temporary financing tool that would give all euro-area Member States time, and financial breathing space, to bring their debt below 60% of GDP. Once this goal is reached the fund and safe bonds will be automatically liquidated. Therefore, safe bonds are a crisis tool rather than a way of permanent integration of the euro-area government bond markets. Even though temporary, the debt redemption pact could contribute to the resolution of the current debt overhang problem.

 

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Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:05 | 1935026 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

SP back to 770-850 ...end of the farce

Eurostoxx 1.500-1.650

Oil 55

-WORLDWIDE RECESSION

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1935051 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"SP back to 770-850 ...end of the farce


Eurostoxx 1.500-1.650

Oil 550

-WORLDWIDE RECESSION"

fixed it for you.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1935065 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its hard to even imagine what things would actually be like with oil at $550, unless youre into the Mad Max movies.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:42 | 1935200 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I see no dollar sign on my comment.  What you should be asking yourself is "550 what?"  See my comments below as well.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:14 | 1935069 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

"SP back to 7770-7850 ...end of the farce

Eurostoxx 4.500-4.650

Oil 55

-WORLDWIDE EXPANSION"

 

fixed it for you (according to ecb)

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:34 | 1935172 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Ya, meanwhile behind the scenes Germany is printing Deutsche Marks up the heinie.    

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:44 | 1935204 deez nutz
Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:45 | 1935212 OttoMBMP
OttoMBMP's picture

Let's hope you are right!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:16 | 1935084 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

DBA is headed back down to a 23.5 - 24 handle. And Iran is just getting their internal nuke capacity managed by the foreign consultants.

I don't see an inflation argument in food or energy.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:25 | 1935121 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Why not?  Are all the people/corporations that require the energy to operate going away?  Is everyone's purchasing power increasing?  Is the energy and capital cost to recover energy or develop and deliver new technology getting cheaper?  If your answer is no to any one of these then there is only one outcome.  Just like in Russia after the collapse of communism, the "official price" won't fucking matter, it will be simply whether or not it is actually available.  So in "academic" terms (or bullshit terms) you may be right.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1935088 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You're too generous on the S&P. I'm thinking S&P 450

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:16 | 1939492 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Nominal S&P earnings at 180 USD.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:05 | 1935028 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Another black hole for liquidity, fucking brilliant.  Will anyone address the solvency issue, ever?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:20 | 1935079 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Solvency will not be addressed because the banksters and their pols would have to admit that they are caught in an inescapable greed trap of their own making.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:21 | 1935109 prains
prains's picture

PIMCO basically admitted this on Hardtalk today

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:34 | 1935169 Mike2756
Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:45 | 1935210 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

No-one will address the solvency issue, for potent psychological reasons, and even more potent long-term strategic reasons.

On the psychological level, a friend of mine just said, "I'm sick and tired of hearing about the End of the World and Fionancial Collapse! Things are going to improve, OK??!!

...uh.."OK"...

My guess is that, aside form ZH'ers, most people desperately believe things will get better, because, well, things have always gotten better. i think this includes most economists, most government economic architects (Central Bankers, etc).

But just as there are a few, far outside the realms of power who can see the truth, there is an even smaller coterie of people at the center of power who understand the unsustainability of the current system, and are working it to their advantage.

These men are NOT Jews. The Jewish tragedy is that the Jews NEED the current system (which they engineered), in order to obtain their objective, which strangely enough, is nothing more than a tiny, rocky, infertile outcropping of limestone in the Levant. You go figure. For the Jews, world domination is only a means to an end, which betrays their romanticism and naivete, and almost makes them endearing, in a pitiful sort of manner.

The Not-Jews see that the destruction of the current system is their path towards world domination, for the sake of world domination, because they like power, because they wish to sit upon the throne of God as if they were God. Their insanity is of a darker nature entirely.

The nut is economic, but in the sense of economy as the path to power. The system will be driven to destruction, by design. The Jews, who built the system, have no choice but to ride the locomotive over the precipice. For them, to get off is destruction now, and to stay on is destruction later, so they stay on, hoping that a way out might be found in time. Besides, they think, they always have the Sampson option, which no-one will allow them to use.

The Not-Jews are certain the Jews will be forced into the Sampson option, which will be the self-immolation of the Jews and the end of them, by their own hand. There will be lots of collateral damage, but that also benefits the plans of the Not-Jews, as it destroys or seriously weakens any residual oppostion to their plans for domination.

To sum up, the endless dithering in Europe is strategic, and designed to bring the global system to an utter train-wreck.

It is a perfect check-mate. If the economic structure implodes beneath its own weight, human misery will demand a re-set. Think "Holy Roman Global Empire" as the re-set. If the Jews see that by an economic collapse, they are about to lose their chance to own that rocky outcropping, they will attack to get it, before it is too late. This will bring about an acceleration of the economic collapse, and the ascendancy of the Not-Jews.  Either way, the ascendancy of the Not-Jews is assured.

Who are the Not-Jews? A hint: Think of a cerberus, with the heads of Albert Pike, Otto Bismarck, and Guiseppe Mazzini, wearing a coarse black woolen cossack, wearing a triple crown (Which head? Pick one) and holding, in his right hand a scepter, and in his left a machine gun.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:10 | 1935328 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Take both hands.     Apply firm pressure between them.    Yank downward in one firm thrust.   You will hear a loud 'Pop'.    

Don't be alarmed.    This is just your head being released from your ass. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:17 | 1939495 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

It will get better.... in 10 years.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:05 | 1935031 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Resurrection Fund!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:08 | 1935040 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

So the rich (relatively) euro countries with fiscal dicipline pay for the poor and hooked on spending ones? Yeah I'm sure people are gonna like that... NOT.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:22 | 1935112 Are you kidding
Are you kidding's picture

But that's the way it is...productive people pay the way for unproductive people.  It's what we do here already.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:08 | 1935043 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

What the hell.  I'm game.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1935047 Hondo
Hondo's picture

This will never work...I mean who are they trying to kid...Funded with nothing more than printed money...and does not address that every day more and more debt would be put into the fund as all country's are running fiscal deficits...I would continue to stay clear of any Euro Sovereign debt as this is nothing more than smoke and mirrors again....they have absolutely no way to pay it down no matter where they stuff it.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:39 | 1935062 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are right, buy UK, US, Japanese, Brazilian, Russian and of course South American's sovereign bonds, instead...

wait, pay it down? what? you mean completely? are you kidding? when was this done, like, ever?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:14 | 1935070 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre trying to fill a hole with printed up money...the problem is the more they dump in, the deeper the hole gets.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:22 | 1935115 prains
prains's picture

Santa's bag

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:30 | 1935152 i-dog
i-dog's picture

What they really need to do is pool some brain cells between them and cobble together one functional brain to work with!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:28 | 1936111 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I think you're forgetting that there is solid evidence to suggest that this is all intentional. No one is this stupid.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 21:20 | 1936915 i-dog
i-dog's picture

+1. I've not forgotten.

Hopefully, my comment and your response might wake a few others to this reality.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:30 | 1935048 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Long live the EFSF! Oh, wait, it's dead...

Long live the Redemption Fund! Long live the Redemption Fund!

---------------------------

Wait a minute! This might even work! Over 60%, coupled with some fiscal restraint, balanced budgets and a clear treaty... Shit, are they serious this time?

Oh, the horror of having to change my mind.... the horror.... all my plans...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:44 | 1935207 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

>coupled with some fiscal restraint, balanced budgets and a clear treaty...

Perhaps you'd be interested in some really nice beach-front property in AZ?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:19 | 1935368 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I have already a comment on this further down, but let me explain one little thing about EU politicians (ex-UK). They love to spend, ok.

But they don't mind that much to spend less or even make budget surpluses if this is connected to a treaty that gives them other advantages.

If this would not be so, there would be no EU and no EZ.

I know, I know, "Austerity Bitchez" and "Loss of sovereignty" and "country XY is squeezed to death by..." and all this. But they would do it.

Caveat: Greece (and perhaps Ireland) might balk and leave - which makes all the lucky fellows betting on a "breakup" of the EZ rejoice...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:36 | 1935644 reload
reload's picture

The `ex UK` part gives the Uk credit for prudence where NONE IS DUE. The current Tory/LibDem government are trying to reign in spending - just so long as nobody gets too upset. They have already caved in on several key election goals. Meanwhile they are printing like fiends to save their banker friends and the treasury from `liquidity issues`. Meanwhile the central bank shrugs without a care in the world as its inflation target is overshot by 100% for three years running.

The previous Labour Government ran the country into massive debt with spending projects for crony`s and massive increase in public sector headcount. Needless to say there was fuck all to show for this except a bigger millstone around the private sector which had to struggle with layers of pointless extra red tape and regulation - The only funny thing is that while Brown gets the blame for selling a chunk of UK gold reserves at rock bottom prices, Blair gets the credit from the main beneficiary with a lifelong multi million a year `consultancy` from good old JPM.

UK politicians are no different from politicians everywhere - they will spend other peoples money until it is all gone.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:00 | 1935283 kito
kito's picture

I'm just shocked they are calling for a plan that tyler feels could actually work...in theory

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:22 | 1935383 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

well, they planned to plan to find a plan to...

seems they are getting somewhere, for once

German Proverb: "Auch ein blindes Huhn findet mal ein Korn" - Even a blind chicken finds a seed, from time to time...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:54 | 1935729 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Merkel is doing an excellent job and actually showing the backbone we haven't seen out of the EU in some time.  She and her staff are staying on message: "We will not pay for the debt of others, but we will try and help establish a new regimen of fiscal oversight.  It is for the debtors to show effective action, not for them to deliver mere promises."   She was masterful at buying time through ambivalent vagueness from July through November in order to consolidate her position (preparations).  Her position yesterday and today will stick.  It is where Germany is drawing the line.  I have gained an education in the peripheral countries' ethos as I see them gang up on the north, demanding money now for uncertain actions later.  They won't or can't collect taxes in their own jurisdictions, so they scream "give us your taxes!"  Nauseating.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:09 | 1935049 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

" Central Banks are unsolvent" period....

ECB is not AAA

the FEd is not AAA is C-

SNB is a fraud

BOJ toasted

CENTRAL BANKS HAS LOST CONTROL

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1935055 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Every play now is a hail mary.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:30 | 1935154 YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

Better hope its Tebow taking these snaps - with the whole God thing and all....

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:39 | 1935188 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

In the states, we call those plays now Hail Barrys.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1935056 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Say it....SAY IT!!!!

 

Somebody has to eat the losses eventually.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1935057 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Extend and pretend.  Whose balance sheet do they land on?  or is this another new balance sheet?  The ponzi lives. 

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:12 | 1935060 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

If my country would decide to give every citizen 20.000 euro and add all that to it's national debt...

than go knocking to those morons door.... and ask for a debt cut, free money and all the beer in the world...

which country would be the smartest? The one who lends out the money or the country that receives it and gives it to it's people? Giving can also happen by creating excesive amounts of government jobs with excesive wages for example.... 

 

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1935077 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

SD, your country would never do it. Your country would give every citizen 20.000 beers.

you are so bloody lucky with your government anyway

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:20 | 1935103 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I see....so the whole rest of the world is going into austerity and bankruptcy, but 'the US would never do it'. No, its coming here next.

No you wrong, US will be the HARDEST hit, but the last hit...everyone else is disarmed and theyre just not sure how to go about taking it all away yet.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:36 | 1935170 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

hemm... I was making a joke about Belgium (SD is Belgian) giving free beer instead of free money...

...and being lucky with having no government since quite a time now... luckily they have a King! It helps to have a King!

I don't want to contradict you and actually I'm mostly of your opinion, with a few little caveats. you are scary when you are angry, you know?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:53 | 1935240 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SD-1: which do you think goes first?  France or the USA?  

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:05 | 1935763 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THAT ONE IS EASY!!! THE ONE WITH THE SMART PRESIDENT!

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1935064 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

This is insanity.  Another (transitory) layer upon this mess to make it even harder to find out who owns what.  Its a big bowl of spaghetti where you cannot trace the noodle because its tangled in a mess of other noodles.  Just won't work.  The debt markets need simple solutions, not more complex ones.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:24 | 1935125 prains
prains's picture

It's called hide the sausage

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:29 | 1935143 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Might as well just throw a pot of noodles in the shitter... that'll hide the stinky debt logs already dropped.  Someone really should pull the flush handle.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1935066 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

Mr. Hands to Mr. Bill - "You gonna die sucka!"

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1935068 fbrothers
fbrothers's picture

Oh, what a evil web we weave.....

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1935076 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Okay here's a thought... Default you stuid fuckers! Start from scratch!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1935080 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

It's a good thing that 95% of the world population doesn't understand what's going on, or else we'd have a big big problem on our hands.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:23 | 1935118 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

Aren't you a bit optimistic with assuming that 5% DO know what is going on?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:31 | 1935155 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Perhaps. It all depends on what you think I mean by what is going on.

I see it as a global kleptocracy ruled over by a small group of mega-wealthy individuals, intent on one thing and one thing only: Entire control of the world population, and eventual massive culling of said world population.

There has always been an end-game, and it is what I stated above. It's not tinfoil, it's not conspiracy. It's happening right in the light of day. They're not hiding it, like they have in prior times. It's blatant theft and subjugation.

Maybe it is less than 5%, but why quibble over such minor details? The fact it, only some of us have come to grips with reality. Everybody else is living in an "Idol" universe.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:42 | 1935199 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

The fact it, only some of us have come to grips with reality. Everybody else is living in an "Idol" universe.

The fact is, not The fact it.

The fact is,
The fact is,

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:44 | 1935206 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

What a classy move. Clearly, I am an idiot because I obviously made an error typing here at work while I am contemplating the fate of the world.

So inexcusable. Death to me!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:08 | 1935321 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

At least you have a sense of humor.

Next!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:53 | 1935243 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i always thought God had control of the world population!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=5kaiLcwHXB4

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1935081 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

"the funds would be supported by public revenues" hahahahhahhahahahahhahaha good luck with that

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:18 | 1935091 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

How about a reverse debt split? They always work!

http://www.joc.com/ltl/yrc-launches-massive-stock-split

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:20 | 1935105 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Redemption fund? Sorry. I dub thee UNFORGIVEN.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:21 | 1935106 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We're from the government and we're here to help you!!

The French learn followership

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:22 | 1935111 jcaz
jcaz's picture

LOL- AWESOME Ponzi solution- NOT!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:22 | 1935113 guiriduro
guiriduro's picture

Always wondered why they don't agree to set up a "good sovereign / bad sovereign" arrangement, much like they do for banks.  Countries can then throw good or reforming assets - utilities, public works etc., into the good sovereign collateral pool, and out of the bad one.  The good sovereign part can roll over debt relatively cheaply, the bad gets stuck with less and less collateral left over for a future bankruptcy.  When the creditors finally call the bad sovereign in, the country is already up and running under the new 'good sovereign' (rather, a mix of functioning public sector bodies), and there ain't much collateral to be picked over.  there's even an outside chance that the cheaper debt available to the good sovereign may be enough that even the bad sovereign pulls through - would be a nice result but not essentially required as the creditors will resolve their own outcome - lend at too high cost then end up chasing a 'bad sovereign' with no capital; offer new credit cheaply, then possibly even previous debts get repaid by a not-quite-so-bad bad sovereign.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:24 | 1935123 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

A CDO for all-but-nationalized banks?

HAHAHAHAHA

 

Fuck you.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:26 | 1935134 Peter K
Peter K's picture

If these failed EuroStates could finance themselves, they wouldn't need a redemption fund. If they need a redemption fund, they obviously can't fund themselves, and need someone else to do it for them. I am not sure what movie the poster is watching, but it ain't the Great European Socialist Train Journey :)

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:34 | 1935171 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

They'll keep trying permutations of the acrobats until they find a configuration suitable for Chinese DIP financing to commence.

5 to 2 odds on whether that happens before or after WWIII.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:36 | 1935177 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

I must be missing something.  How exactly is this different than all the other proposals for bailouts.  Some countries are more over the 60% level than others, so one of two things must be true with such a redemption fund- either those less profligate end up having the redeem their debt plus a portion of the more profligate's debt, or each country is obligated to redeem their own contribution to the debt pile.  The second is no different from what we would have today with an EFSF fund that provides loans to the troubled countries, and first is just a Eurobond structure, but neither really deals with the problems of forcing and enforcing spending/taxing reforms on sovereign countries.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:40 | 1935195 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I agree....how does this solve anything? All it does is create 2 pools of govt debt....which added togethr equals the same thing????????????  Window dressing at its finest.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:11 | 1935287 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

no, you have to use the twisted logic of EU politicians. it's about how much they are willing to guarantee while the other goes and tightens the purses...

the more I think about the more it looks doable - it's not that much different as Uncle Sam staying behind California's debt while it does have the upside of giving a multi-country-treaty "real bite".

Austerity, here comes the EU...

-----

Just an example: It took Italy ten years to go down from 120% to 103%, without really trying (and only a few to go back to 120%) - in twenty years of budgets surpluses  (when was the last time I've seen this word?) it is doable to go down to less then 90%, which is not that bad if you continue for another 20 years...

The funny part is that with less gov spending, the economy starts to do useful things, for a change...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:54 | 1935252 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

You're not supposed to look too closely. Get with the program.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:39 | 1935190 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

More Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) aka 6 Pack jawboning to commence in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:46 | 1935215 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hail Mary redemption fund : sounds like a Carla Bruni offered to each Euro bond buyer, especially if its Franco-Italian bonds. Maybe they will get Penelope Cruz to participate for Spanians. The redemption list could go on and on. They'll have to quickly find a true German maidschen as sub for Angelaaaaa.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:23 | 1935390 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

first you made me happy and then you mentioned Angela

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:34 | 1935908 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I did say "sub", avatar, not the original!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:47 | 1935219 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I wish I were a central banker...what fun I would have!  I could save entire continents with just a few words, which would make me really popular.  Everyone would love me.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:54 | 1935254 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Every country on earth should do like Iceland and tell the banksters to SUCK IT.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:56 | 1935267 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Redemption Fund... can I short it?  Please??

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:18 | 1935366 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

But a hail Mary pass has to have a positive probability of working!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/01/the-morning-after-the...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:00 | 1935506 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

(paste, BiCheZ)    " The funds should be supported by public revenues and dismantled within 20 years, he said."

i'm channeling rodney;  dangerfield and king

can we get a fuking break, here, please?

  • isn't this exactly the debt slavery we have been a-talking about L0! these many moons? 
  • isn't the problem already that public revenues can't carry this amount of perpetually-growing debt?
  • isn't that damned pig wearing enuf lipstick, already, for pete's sake???
Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:16 | 1935830 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

yes, exactly. tell it like it is.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:04 | 1936473 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

I attended a presentation by Prof Weder di Mauro, Merkels closest tie in the economic advisory board about ten days ago. She pushed the redemption fund idea. The prior analysis of the situation was really sharp, basically ruling out any other alternative as "in the end, not solving the problem". What struck me was that she very much focused on the indiviudal responsibility of sovereigns for their share in the pooled debt. I think the idea of implementing fiscal discipline is good, however, individual debt responsibility will lower /extinguish any incentive to maintain the discipline and it will make it impossible for both fiscally strong and weak countries sustain the situation. Forward looking, it's not about economics in the mathematical sense, it is about the sociological issues that drive the issue.

For now, European politicians believe that it is somehow manageable without pain, that's the problem. It's like a huge hangover after the debt party, you cannot heal it with a chemical pain killer aka other sources of debt, and you cannot talk it away. The faster you accept the pain, the faster you cope with it and go on with life. Anything else just shifts the problem and possibly even increases it.

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