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Here Comes The S&P Downgrade Barrage - Full Statement, In Which S&P Says France May Get Two Notch Downgrade
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today placed its long-term sovereign ratings on 15 members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) on CreditWatch with negative implications.
We have also maintained the CreditWatch negative status of our long-term rating on Cyprus and placed its short-term ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications. The ratings on Greece have not been placed on CreditWatch. The ratings on the eurozone sovereigns are listed below.
Today's CreditWatch placements are prompted by our belief that systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole.
We believe that these systemic stresses stem from five interrelated factors:
- Tightening credit conditions across the eurozone;
- Markedly higher risk premiums on a growing number of eurozone sovereigns, including some that are currently rated 'AAA';
- Continuing disagreements among European policy makers on how to tackle the immediate market confidence crisis and, longer term, how to ensure greater
- economic, financial, and fiscal convergence among eurozone members;(4) High levels of government and household indebtedness across a large area of the eurozone; and
- The rising risk of economic recession in the eurozone as a whole in 2012. Currently, we expect output to decline next year in countries such as Spain, Portugal and Greece, but we now assign a 40% probability of a fall in output for the eurozone as a whole.
Our CreditWatch review of eurozone sovereign ratings will focus on three of the five key factors that form the core of our sovereign ratings methodology:
the "political," "external," and "monetary" scores we assign to the governments in the eurozone (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions", published June 30, 2011). Our analysis of "political dynamics" will focus on both country-specific and eurozone-wide issues that appear to us to be limiting the effectiveness of efforts to resolve the market confidence crisis. Our analysis of "external liquidity" will focus on the borrowing requirements of both eurozone governments and banks. Our analysis of "monetary flexibility" will focus on ECB policy settings to address the economic and financial stresses the countries in the eurozone are increasingly facing.
We expect to conclude our review of eurozone sovereign ratings as soon as possible following the EU summit scheduled for Dec. 8 and 9, 2011. Depending on the score changes, if any, that our rating committees agree are appropriate for each sovereign, we believe that ratings could be lowered by up to one notch for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and by up to two notches for the other governments. [THIS MEANS FRANCE]
Our ratings on Greece (Hellenic Republic; CC/Negative/C) are not affected by today's actions, as a 'CC' rating under our rating definitions connotes our belief that there is a relatively high near-term probability of default.
We are publishing separate media releases with the rationale for each rating action on the 16 CreditWatch actions. We are also publishing the following article: "Credit FAQ: Factors Behind Our Placement of Eurozone Governments on CreditWatch".
Following today's CreditWatch listings, Standard & Poor's will issue separate media releases concerning affected ratings on the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance companies, public finance, and structured finance sectors in due course.
RATINGS LIST To From
Long-term ratings on CreditWatch negative
Austria (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
Belgium (Kingdom of) Sovereign Credit Rating AA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA/Negative/A-1+
Finland (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
France (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
Germany (Federal Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
Luxembourg (Grand Duchy of) Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
Netherlands (The) (State of) Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
Long- and short-term ratings on CreditWatch negative
Estonia (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+
Ireland (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating BBB+/Watch Neg/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2
Italy (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating A/Watch Neg/A-1 A/Negative/A-1
Malta (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating A/Watch Neg/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
Portugal (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB-/Negative/A-3
Slovak Republic Sovereign Credit Rating A+/Watch Neg/A-1 A+/Positive/A-1
Slovenia (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+
Spain (Kingdom of) Sovereign Credit Rating AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA-/Negative/A-1+
Short-term ratings on CreditWatch negative, long-term ratings still on
CreditWatch negative
Cyprus (Republic of) Sovereign Credit Rating BBB/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB/Watch Neg/A-3
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http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
Cyprus' political class has been watching this train wreck for the past 3 years now and less than a week before the IMF deadline, they are still looking each other while doing absolutely nothing, like the inept apes that they are, while currently being cornered by the unions, of course.
The government changed its whole ministerial cabinet a few months ago, mainly to appease the expanding rioting society after the navy base explosion, including the last finance minister who was stating that our economy will barely be affected by the crisis, enjoying the unconditional support of an (Swear to God) incompetent president.
As for the rest, you can pretty much guess it. The government is trying to deleverage in a balanced, in their mind, manner by decreasing the overinflated state machine, which has been used as a voting base generator, by pumping it with with additional yet needless workforce during the past decades of cheap credit and economic ponzi-prosperity.
Public employees are protesting the unfair disequilibrium between public and private sector cuts and contributions and vice versa, mirrored in perfect harmony by the neo-communistic (supposedly) governmental administration, versus the right plutocratic oligarchial opposition, who in all fairness has been calling for economic reform for a long time now, while being labelled as doom mongers.
Of course their idea of economic reform did not include any sort of tax evasion, higher government salaries such as theirs, capital taxation or any other fundamental reform that would affect them, or that would had otherwise provided some sort of a meager yet untapped revenue for the depleted state funds.
Cyprus might provide a miniature economy but I assure you that they political joke is of disproportional dimensions.
The funniest (saddest) thing is that Christopher Pissarides, a Cypriot economist with a Nobel Prize in economics, and quite well known here, has been warning the government hacks that this would come, yet no one paid any attention. To be precise, I remember him saying during an interview that they call him in Australia, South Korea etc for lectures and contributions on economic policy drafting, while the "President" here did not ask his opinion once for the past years.
Instead, when these imbeciles thought that the 2008 crisis was nothing but a soft patch, when there was a miniscule bounce in the economy during 2010 due to the unrelentless money printing, they funneled massive amounts of money in subsidies for tourism and construction who according to them were the most affected and the ones more vital for our economy. Needless to add that all was done in vain of course.
So there you have it, c'est la vie, kumbaya and hard liquor baths.
Please do not hesitate to share your own Banana Republic experience.
Translation : print or die.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
SP500 monthly chart remains bearish and USDX weekly remains bullish, so it’s only a matter of time until the market makes its move.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Toys R Us? hmmm..where is the UK in this? A two notch downgrade?
P I I G S UK Estonia Roumania Slovakia...are US!