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Here Is How The 50% Greek Haircut Is Actually Just 28%
Just the math, something Europe is unable to do:
- Greece has €350 billion in total debt including about €70 billion in Troika "post-petition" loans; these are untouched.
- Of the €280 billion, roughly €75 billion is held by the ECB: this, like the Troika loans, will be untouched.
- This leaves just ~€200 billion in actual debt to undergo a haircut.
- Apply a 50% haircut to this debt (ignoring the fact that of this about €35 billion is held by Greek pension funds, and once the realization that Greek pensions have been cut in half dawns upon the population, the result will be the biggest riots ever seen in Athens yet).
- Total debt to be cut: just about €100 billion.
- Hence, of the total €350 billion, just €100 billion is eliminated, most of it used to backstop and service Greek pension and retirement obligations
- €250, or the residual, of €350, the original, means 72%, or a 28% haircut.
- Greek GDP was €230 billion on December 31, 2010 and declining fast.
- And that is how a 50% haircut is "cut" almost in half
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and that is assuming it is a real 50% haircut and not some bastardized NPV calculation
A little windy isn`t it . Hahaha. I would like to see the proof
bloons tower defense 4
Shout out to Zero for being the pinnacle of financial news. You all are exhaustive and righteous.
exhaustive and riteous no doubt, but with way too much bearish tint. Meanwhile, back in reality and despite the zero hedge negative drone, the S&P has rallied almost 200 handles in 15 days. Party On!
Go back to sucking your boyfriends cock.
I was going to say BTFD; but, yeah.
This is no funny - think about on a memory foam mattress
Yes siree....there are not enough booster financial news outlets. C'mon Zero Hedge - quit it with the accurate anlaysis...maybe some stories about lottery winners, unicorns, and magic fairies would be good.
People like you always refer to the last rally. How about the return over the last 10 years?
Some pigs are more equal than others.
neither cast
ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them
under their feet, and turn again and rend you...bitchez
Amen, my brother...
Uncle Knukie's thought for the eve...
The bulls. Problem solved, risk back on, All's Ho-Kay. Same game we's been playin' now for weeks. But finally, resolution is here! Hooray!
Stocks rally
PM's get shat upon.
Regular stock portfolio manager perspective of the world. (About as far as his dick and a duh. And yes, you fuckers know who you are.)
The realists. (credit, commodity, 4X and bond daddies) Nothing's changed. The solution is all form over substance. The haircut for some but none for the Official EU Organizations is a purely political sleight of hand, solving shit.
Political Kabuki Theater.
The Law of Unintended Consequences Bites Hard, Eventually....
The prior bull case might take hold first.
Watch the fixed income markets!
Interest rates rise on higher risk credit paper (spreads widen).
This is the EU's GM moment. Good fucking luck.
Credibility of Euro is shite along with EU due process.
Makes the first 2 fiat reserve currencies officially useless.
Hello China!
Hello Gold!
Note gold right now. About unchanged, but silver palladium and platinum rallying. Oh Fed/Treasury with JPM/HSBC on their behalf. Manipulate (sorry, intervene) away. Gotta keep making like it's all orderly, don't we. No need to cry havoc and loose the dogs of hard money.
Longer term....
What with abrogations of contract law becoming a normal everyday occurrence, whatta wanna own longer term?
Gold and etc......
Scuttle the fiats! Free men and strong women first. The band will remain playing for the rest of the decline in the Idiot Lounge.
There will be a behavioral contest held after the Velocity of Money rebounds and Inflation takes hold, after the depression, continued.
Whilst partying, please be careful of official slippery bullshit manipulated data.
This, my kind gentle fellows is the end as we know it... end of "normal".
It's Official, Declared by Dr, Knukles Hisveryself.
There will be no more talk of "are we there yet" or "when the shit hits the fan."
We're there, it's splattering.
Buckle in. Its' gonna be one motherfucking rough ride.
Keep your cool and remain clear.
There will be many mirrors. Nothing is as it seems.
Careful, Alice. That Rabbit Hole is Mighty Deep©
Have you seen the bigger piggies
In their starched white shirts
You will find the bigger piggies
Stirring up the dirt
Always have clean shirts to play around in.
In their styes with all their backing
They don't care what goes on around
In their eyes there's something lacking
What they need's a damn good whacking.
--The Beatles
Lyrics by John "the Reagan Republican" Lennon. I like the way that sounds:)
pretty cool isn't it?
Big man, pig man, ha ha charade you are.
--Pink Floyd
agree... walk in cooler
true Inteligator
more ... want you
And as usual the banks make out like bandits, literally, and the people who worked a lifetime for retirement pensions get screwed.
hooray, so the banks have to write down $75b less than expected. buying opportunity
Please post your proof
we are in a math class
UBS says the 50% writedown of Greek paper is really just 22% after factoring in that only privately held bonds will be subject to the haircut (leaving the ECB, EU, and IMF holdings whole), and also that Greece will then need to recapitalize its banks. In other words, 50% is not nearly enough. “To achieve an actual 50% reduction … Greece would need to implement a 100% haircut.” http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-50-greek-haircut-is-really-just-22-of...
The plan: shout "haircuts!" then bail the Euro banks through the back door quietly. ECB will have those Greek bonds on its balance sheet by close of business.
Brilliant ... a haircut of a haircut
no much you can do, isn't it? walk in freezer
fuck it, im buying calls on s and ptomorrow
Funny thing how the ECB doesn't apply the 50% haircut to their loans. You can gore someone else's ox, just not mine...
Uh, goring didn't come to mind..
I see.
Await credit markets EZ open in 3 hrs. To see whats up
it's interesting to know... incline treadmill
Equity futures soaring ever higher on this game-changing news! May be a good opportunity to buy some china fraudcaps
"soaring"? Dude, settle down, they're up about 1%, wont' last till morning, once people figure out the details.....
Greek haircuts? I just wish Greek women would shave off hair on their legs.
All kidding aside
And their upper lips.
Is very disconcerting kissing something with a mustache and feeling down there again just to make sure.
Note to self.... easy on the Ouzo.
Still safer than Thailand though!
I have heard that Greeks don't mind Thailand at all.
pods
Greek bondholders to go bald.
Wow- good work, Tyler- will take the market a week to do that math.....
impressive! mini fridge
so.... is this bullish?
Well yeah...for at least the next couple of hours.
Zerohedge has almost become a contrarain indicator. Everytime Zerohedge spreads some bearish analysis, markets will soar.
@eigenvalve
Buy all you want, bitch. The sky's the limit! We don't need no maths!
Let the underwater burn!
Spreads some bearish analysis? Or merely does the math? I know math confuses most Yanks.
Remember how awesome October 2007 was? Remember how math didn't matter then either?
Perception is reality until reality kills perception.
But enjoying the soaring market. Get super super long, and preferable short some gold. After all you have your perfect contrarian indicator:the man who can do math.
Hmm. Confusing HFT headline action for a 'contrarian indicator'. Yea, this cat will last long. Heh.
interesting silver
Hey hey maybe ZH touched some nerves with the scoop on PrimeX, and we're seeing 'Operation Discredit' in progress.
It's a conspiracy!
Let the riots start again!
When did the concept of "retirement" come about? This is a realtively new construct, I believe (i.e., not sure if the pilgrims or the injuns counted on "reitement years").
Perhaps retirement in the conventional sense is unsustainable, even unrealistic, on a longer timeline, as it is turning out to be a ponzi as well (like every fucking thing).
To be sure, the prospect of a "traditional retirement" for somone who is, say, <10 yrs out of school is not the "sure thing" it once was.
Retirement is a very real concept and it's easier to achieve when you spend less than you make and save in terms of purchasing power and future consumption instead of paper.
So let's see, after all this drama Greece's debt to GDP is still over 100%? When is the next bailout?
Let's see how this one pans out first.
The Greek riot Granny is not going to like it.
Bring on Sausage the Riot Dog!
Time to bust out the gas masks and motorcycle helmets!!
Dow 14000 indeed! Equity bears are going to be hanging from lamp posts by lunch tomorrow. Bulls on parade.
i'll take that bet
Still going to be/go short(er) tomorrow! Good night y'all!!
Calculates like Obamanomics to me!
I think the ECB claimed this will create 10 million jobs.
"Creates or Saves". Can't forget the saves;)
Money becomes increasingly meaningless and valueless the more they try to save the system without a reset. Buying power will continue to get decimated on all fronts.
That is some impressive Mathematics in RT . Tyler's calculus vs EU BS.
Who knew this was the road to riches! Fuck cramer. Fuck Rich Dad. Fuck carlton Sheets. Go Greek defualt!
I was just thinking of going Greek, myself.
Where's Sausage the Riot Dog?
Phew, thought there was bad news.
Are we dead yet? :(
But wont Greek pension funds already have marked their holdings to market (at more than 50% discount to face value )???
28% isn't so bad
The bond market association is at same address..
http://www.allbusiness.com/operations/facilities-real-estate-office-leas...
Bankers don't take haircuts,they give them.
FUCK YOU BANKSTERS...!!!
I can't fathom why Greece would want to remain in the Euro...all this does is get them to the absolute maximum amount of debt a society can bear. It is surreal.
I guess they are afraid that their military funding would disappear and the Turks would take all their islands.
The 50% haircut will be a voluntary agreement with private creditors. An involuntary writedown could have potentially constituted a “credit event” that would have required the payout on billions of euros in credit default swaps, instruments used to insure debt against non-payment.
BULLSHIT!
I was very relieved to see that no bankers will go to jail as part of this deal.
Bankers should not be in jail. They should be free to walk the streets where some decent person can have the opportunity of punching their lights out.
The 50% haircut will be a voluntary agreement with private creditors. An involuntary writedown could have potentially constituted a “credit event” that would have required the payout on billions of euros in credit default swaps, instruments used to insure debt against non-payment.
BULLSHIT ALERT!
all i can say is are you fucking kidding me. and i rarely swear in public.
What is reality? What is perception?
When the same entity that controls the politicians and MSM also controls the printing presses, you have a machine that is capable of transcending time and space to create its OWN reality.... and if not, it is truly capable of creating a "perception" of that reality that will be as believable as the truth
Supposedly there's talk of a 30bEuro "sweetner" for those who either volunteer, or just for the Greek Bank's who volunteer. That would take the writedown to (350/70=) 21%.
Now, where have I heard this figure before?
Alice In Wonderland move over!!
Europe has done a Houdini which will no doubt keep the crowd enthralled for some time but not for good.
I spoke to a friend in Greece who tells me that her teaching wages have gone down from 1300 euro a month last year to 730 euro per month at the moment.
With incomes being decimated how on earth do they expect economic activity to generate sales tax and income tax revenues?
Watch what happens as home loans and commercial property loans go sour as real estate values start to reflect incomes, turnover and the present glut of vacancies.
The same colleague told me of respectable people being seen going through rubbish bags whilst telling passers by that they are lookig for scraps to feed their pets. Yeah sure !!
Greek TV has already reported instances of children fainting at school as a result of not having eaten.
When that pig of a Greek Finance Minister loses half a metre off his girth, I will then be convinced that austerity has hit its true mark.
Sarkozy will lose the next election and Merkel will bow out to spend time with Jenny Craig. The light at the end of the tunnel will turn out to be a debt laden carriage travelling at the speed of light.
unfortunately this happens. Hopefully the situation will improve soon. reverse phone detective