Here It Is: Presenting Goldman's "The World Is Ending So Let's All Profit" Report

Tyler Durden's picture

A few days ago the WSJ made waves by disclosing that Goldman was in the process of recreating another "Abacus", by pitching to clients a global "pain trade" presentation created by Goldman's Alan Brazil, which, among others, speculated that funding needs for European banks would be far, far greater than the IMF-proposed $200 billion, and would in fact be closer to $1 trillion. This emphasis is actually odd, because Goldman focuses as much if not more attention on the end of the Chinese bubble as it does on the end of the European ponzi. It of course also did the usual Goldman thing, which is to allow select clients to piggyback with its prop, pardon flow, desk, in recreating the same fiasco for which it already had to pay a half a billion settlement to the SEC last year. Yet to date, nobody had actually seen a public version of this report....That is, nobody, until now - presenting Goldman's top secret "State of the Markets - Long and Short Risk Strategies"

In summary, Goldman proposed key trades for Europe are:

  • Buy 5Y Protection on iTraxx Series 9 9-100% Tranche
  • Buy 6 Month EURCHF One-Touch Put Option

While on China Goldman recommends its best clients to the following:

  • Buy a Short Equity Total Return Swap on Chinese Banks
  • Buy a USD put CNY Call Option
  • Buy Short-Dated CNH Bonds (Dim Sum Bonds)
  • Buy AUDUSD Put Spreads or Receiver Swaptions on AUD Swap Rates
  • Buy Copper Put Option spread

Full report below:

 

 

h/t Lloyd Blankfein

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Two Towers AU AG's picture

Get Physical Bitchezzzzz.. with the gold :P

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Too much loose talk about "end of the world".

Definitions are important.  To have an end of the world you have to kill off 7 billion people.

That's not likely.  My estimates are about 1.1 billion can live on this planet post oil.

So 7 billion deaths is absurd.  The correct number is 5.9 billion and that should be over the next 15 years.

BaBaBouy's picture

.

Super Leaches ... Thiving On Dead Corpses ...

tekhneek's picture

"It goes it goes it goes it goes guillotine.... YEAH!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Orlbo9WkZ2E

Michael's picture

LMAO.

No permanent jobs will ever be created in America ever again thanks to NAFTA, CAFTA, GATT/WTO.

I love watching the D's and R's twist in the wind knowing they can't create new jobs because of the trade legislation they themselves passed.

No more tax money for you G-man!

JW n FL's picture

 

 

Michael <------- What he said! BITCHEZ!!

DoneThis2Long's picture

Finally, someone sees one of the problems - which I mentioned in a reply on a different thread. We've signed and passed some of the dumbest deals just so one or two companies could gain while others lost, and we are starring the proof smack in the eye. Net net, they were idiotic deals resulting in US loosing every step of the way, yet, the Current Resident @ 1600 Penn Ave, wants to sign some more.

We clearly need more revenue: review some of those former deals and do nothing but reply in kind to the respective country's treatment of American made products - do we still make anything here ??? - by taxing their goods US bound, just as they tax ours. Use identical yard-sticks for both sides.

And lets not forget the currency manipulators: tax by the amount their currency is upside down vs. the USD. We need fairness in trade deals and enforcement of the damn clauses harming the American Corporations, and we'll be just fine.

We could probably cut the deficit considerably is we did nothing else but make china pay for all the illegal software knowingly used nowhere else but by their gov workers. Apply it to all software, so include all American created software sold everywhere and we'd be just fine and underway to greatly cut the deficit. Just deduct the bill from the IOUs they hold.

Then move on to all the US subsidized intellectual property stolen from American corporations and gov agencies. How in hell can they be so "proud" of their "achievements and progress" much of it being nothing but stolen US based know-how and technology ?!? Yet our politicians crawl on their hands and knees for more bones making asses of themselves. If they were so fucking brilliant, why did they allow their population levels to grow many times over what their own lands and agri output could support? Now, their irresponsible population growth rate greatly contributing to a number of issues.

More could be said but ... it will not do any good. Who gives a shit of our ramblings? We are just venting, while having our ass(et)s and constitutional rights stripped away, along with quality of life, etc etc, just so soros et al, can achieve their 'new world order' (wet) dream - the one in which they screw us all.

Seer's picture

Actually, End of the World would require the complete explosion/implosion of the planet...

1.1 billion?  Why not 1 billion, or 1.2 billion?

Death, the next growth sector...

CrashisOptimistic's picture

It has to do with arable surface area and what population was being fed around 1880 before oil arrived for tractors, fertilizers and insecticide.

There is some fudging in there for agro lessons learned, but you can't transport food to cities when the farms in Nebraska are 1000 miles from the east coast.  Then 1 season seeds are gone and no more are shipped from Monsanto plants and not everyone has heirloom seeds.

Add it all up . . . 1.1 billion survive on the planet.  The US gets about 800K of that, down from 330 million.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't forget the Haber Bosch process, no fertilizer, no way to produce food quickly.

spiral_eyes's picture

The world isn't ending, nor are we going down to 1.1 billion "in the next 15 years". This is an economic depression, not the end of the world. GS recognise that, though I guess they hegde with bunkers, which is smart, but it's a very, very long shot. We are not out of oil, or out of oil infrastructure. Venezuela alone has enough oil to sustain the world demand for 30 years. I hope that the result of this crash is that we start working on the infrastructure for a post-oil world. But let's just remember guys:

Malthus has been wrong every single time. More solar energy hits the world in a day than our net total for the last 50 years. Just a matter of harnessing it.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/17/job-creation-101/ 

CrazyCooter's picture

"Venezuela alone has enough oil to sustain the world demand for 30 years"

You might want to mention its an API of roughly 10 and is also a non-newtonian fluid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_crude_oil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Newtonian_fluid

In this case, non-newtonian fluid means the shit will set like concrete if you let it cool off.

One might also benefit from a study of hydrocarbon cracking

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_%28chemistry%29

In short, refineries have to be specifically designed to handle heavy crudes even so far as to tailor for a specific blend.

None of this is cheap!

Regards,

Cooter

LawsofPhysics's picture

Thanks Cooter,  yeah there is an energetic and financial cost to recover the stuff.  While there many people working on the technology, it still takes capital and available resources to do.  Another sheep reading GOP talking points.

myne's picture

Hah, so it's basically sloppy coal. Niiiice!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Sorry, it is a question of the energy flux require to fix enough nitrogen to feed the current population and grow.  Solar can not do it.  Oil and coal are simply stored solar energy that has been concentrated.  Even in your scenario, growth is going to slow.  Even if you captured 100% of the sun's electromagnetic radiation, you still have a fairly constant flux of energy (i.e. no growth).  Moreover, we have other bigger problems such as;  the sulfur cycle, the nitrogen cycle, the phosphorus cycle, the carbon cycle.  These are cycles the move the prospective elements through various oxidation states.  The sun and numerous marine organisms do this, some are phototrophic, some are not.  If the flux of elements around any of these cycles stops (phophorus and nitrogen cycles in particular - because of fertilizer for plants) then it is game over.  If they slow down, the results will be disasterous.

 

Either way, even in that "solar only" world of yours (which I hope comes to pass), we are looking at big changes in how people live and the resources that they will have access to.  This means no growth eventually.  ALL our economic and monetary policies depend on exponential growth so the pain is real with even a slow-down.

With regard to your comments about recovering oil,  do you work on a rig?  Do you have experience in an oil field?  No,  well my brother has been in the business for 20+ years.  It is all about the energetic and financial cost to recover the stuff and how much you can sell it for.  Sure if these companies can get $200-500 per barrel they will keep going after it.  Hhmm, let's see, what has happened to wages around the world again dipshit?  Earth will stop using oil with plenty in the ground simply because the energetic and capital costs will make recovery unprofitable, especially when these areas erupt with war.

dolly madison's picture

"Either way, even in that "solar only" world of yours (which I hope comes to pass), we are looking at big changes in how people live and the resources that they will have access to.  This means no growth eventually.  ALL our economic and monetary policies depend on exponential growth so the pain is real with even a slow-down."

There will be pain ahead for sure because we are living in an unsustainable way.  We need to change our monetary policy for sure.  Fiat currency with fractional reserve banking really falls apart badly without growth.

As far as energy, I think we should be trying to switch to solar, wind, and any other renewable energies.  It does not matter if the renewable energies cannot fully supply us.  Some is better than none.  Some will help the amount of other stored energies we have last longer, and will buy us time.  Time can possibly solve the problems because of innovation.

Trouble is that the croney capitalism we have gets majorly in the way of us making the changes we need to.  We should be doing things like trying to add smaller farms, encouraging people to live in more agrarian ways, changing zoning to make work closer to home, encouraging much solar power in individual ways instead of farms of solar panels and windmills which have not been profitable.  More of us have a better chance of long term survival if we start moving away from our consumer economy driven by suburban living.

CrazyCooter's picture

"I think we should be trying to switch to solar, wind, and any other renewable energies."

I am 100% renewable electricity generation where I am. You?

Individuals who talk about doing something are not the same as individuals who do something. More succinctly (not to be an ass) I did something, you have not. It matters what we do, not what we talk about. "Government" will never solve any problems, individuals will.

Don't want to be combative (I know it sounds that way), but I do want folks to realize they can not wait for things to change, they have to be the change. Wait, and it will be too late for you and your family.

Regards,

Cooter

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

We mustn't forget to factor the militaries of the world into all of this. As the existing proven reserves diminish through truth and time, more and more of the stored oil in the ground will be arrogated by militaries until civilian populations are reduced to wind mills, solar panels and hydro electric power.

At this point you can say good by to capitalism and hello to war with eastasia.

John Law's picture

  Venezuela alone has enough oil to sustain the world demand for 30 years.

Errr, I think your math is off a little pal. Venezuela has proved reserves of 211 billion barrels.

In 2010 the world averaged roughly 87mbd usage. 30 years would require 952,650,000,000 barrels. That's just under 1 trillion. Not allowing for any growth in demand. If you factor in 3% growth annum, you would need much more than that.

So please, think for yourself and don't repeat the bullshit propaganda you hear.

Potemkin Nation's picture

Not only that, but you need to consider the energy and cost it takes to retrieve each barrel, which increases as the field is depleted, as well as the rate at which it can be pumped out of the ground. 

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

If Big Brother says 1.1, then I say 1.1. I don't want no rat cage strapped on my face, dude.

Are you kidding's picture

You couldn't be more wrong.   Oil is "condensed" sunlight.  We use 5 MILLION years worth of "sunlight" every year as oil/NG/coal.  We suck down energy like there's no tomorrow!  And there just may be no tomorrow...tomorrow.  We ARE running out.  There would be no reason to go to the extremes we do to get it if it was replenishing.  You can't replace fossile fuels short of fission/fusion.  We need a new technology that lets you turn waste into energy at the atomic level.  Waste is completely eliminated and if even 1% efficient, could power the planet.  Shit and piss into the machine and power your house for the day.  We need "cold fusion" or something similar.  I'm not so sure we'll find it.  I fear the dark ages are approaching.

unky's picture

The US is blessed with a lot of arable land unlike for example china which has great deserts.

decon's picture

Can't argue with your logic however there has been a lot of serious degredation to soils, watersheds and fisheries worldwide since 1880.  Conversely there have been some improvements to mobility such as road networks and bridges as well as non-hybrid crop genetics.

 

OT- what would be the consensus on holding a 2 day old FAZ position (big) over the weekend? 

gmrpeabody's picture

Big FAZ over the weekend... 55/45.

But, it's gambling, unless you're using OPM.

topshelfstuff's picture

When in doubt, especially given this Yo-Yo Market, it never hurts to sell a good half position on the gain. Even if it continues to rise come Tuesday, you'll enjoy the weekend more.

HyperLazy's picture

Re: OT - I will hold my FAZ and TZA over the weekend. Keeping an eye on asian and european markets before tuesday opening. I wouldn't be surprised if the futures are green, markets open up with a instant 1% rise and then resume falling. Unless, of course during the weekend, aliens arrive from the andromenda galaxy bearing super technological bailouts to the tune of 4.4 quadrillion space dollars at 0% interest.

decon's picture

Thanks for the opinions.  I tightened trailing stops earlier and the market made the decision for me.  Like you guys expressed, it's so volitile and you can't predict if the gov will show up with some new monkey business, I rarely hold that kind of position overnight anymore.  The bullbearpig response went right to the heart of the matter.  Have a restful weekend, I know I will!

johnnynaps's picture

Can't wait! Positioned nicely, found a funeral director to intern with!!!

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Burials is a shovel ready industry, if there ever was one.

Lord Koos's picture

Should it occurr, the end of humanity is not the end of the world.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Not too far off.  Prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process for burning oil and coal in order to reduce molecular nitrogen gas into ammonia for fertilizer, we had just under 2 billion.  Of course that 2 billion typically lived to the ripe old age of 40.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The increase in lifespan is more directly attributable to medical advancements such as antibiotics rather than available food sources, no?

tallystick's picture

Increase in average lifespan is mostly due to decrease in infant mortality.  Maximum lifespan for well-nurished people hasn't increased much, if at all.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

I would include public health items like proper santiation.

CrazyCooter's picture

IIRC, food security is the biggest contributor with modern medicine coming in second. Makes sense if you think about it; I can get by without a doc if I am lucky, but I can't go hungry for very long.

Regards,

Cooter

e_goldstein's picture

End of the world, not likely.

End of Western civilization, getting closer by the day.

Entropy.

LawsofPhysics's picture

There it is.  Don't speak the truth too much, it makes you a target.

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

If Western Civilization falls in a forest and no one is alive to see it, is it the end of the world?

Just asking.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

"My estimates are about 1.1 billion can live on this planet post oil."

So are you prepared to do the right thing?

Fukushima Sam's picture

"The right thing" is to be one of the survivors.

 

Bicycle Repairman's picture

I was thinking that I want you Malthusians dead.

bakken's picture

Wish you were wrong.  We will be lucky, maybe only 20% of the US population will die off.  Places like BanglaDesh, N China, Brazil, will see much higher proportions.  In the military, 20% losses completely put units out of action.  The only trouble is, this will not be quick enough and the remaining population is likely to become despondent, similar to to post-Black Death Europe.  I am kind of glad I won't be here to see it.

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Must disagree. In all those places you mention they have no electricity, no cars and can live on weeds. They won't even know the paradigm has changed.

Americans will lose their desire to live when they stop broadcasting "Dancing with the Stars."

Chuck Walla's picture

With Obama-care, we are getting a good jump on killing Granny & Gramps here in the states, but it really needs to go to India and China.

 

UN Agenda 21, Btchez!

Ursa Major's picture

Insane! Obama are will actually allow them to pay for treatment - the current system provides them with the best care they can(not) afford...