Here We Go Again: US To Breach "Transitory" Debt Ceiling On Monday

Tyler Durden's picture

It is hard to believe that the last time the US had breached its debt ceiling was a whopping one month ago. Courtesy of much toil, tears and televized theater (not to mention fake compromises), the Obama administration managed to get an accordion-feature extension of the debt-ceiling-cum-target, whereby it is currently at $14.694 trillion, and can be extended in $500 billion increments, for a total of $1.5 trillion provided congress and senate do not vote down such an expansion. The reason we bring this up is because as the data below demonstrates, the US Treasury will breach its brand new debt ceiling... on Monday.

That's right: as of yesterday, total US debt was $14.717 trillion (obviously an all time record, and every day closer to parity with US GDP), while debt subject to the ceiling was $16.772 trillion, or just $22 billion below the total before someone has to go ahead and commence the whole debt ceiling fiasco from scratch. And since as the Treasury is auctioning off another $32 billion in 3 Year bonds on Monday, that process better scramble or else all that rhetoric about Social Security being nothing but a plundered ponzi scheme will be proven true yet again. And while we see flashing headlines that Obama's proposal is now set to be a bullshit $450 billion (bullshit because republican will absolutely not go ahead with it), we are positive that not one word will be uttered to inform the public that as of this moment Harry Reed has already started the process of the next $500 billion debt ceiling expansion, one which will bring total US debt-to-GDP to over 100% for the first time since the post-WW2 period.

Most recent total debt breakdown:

And next week's full debt auction schedule.

And the issue in question that will tip us over:

The only saving grace is that the settlement of these auctions will take a few days, so the latest spectacle may take at least 2-3 days before it has to be voted on and by then everyone will have long forgotten that the US most certainly lives Keynesian paycheck (aka bond auction) to paycheck.

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Roy Bush's picture


CrashisOptimistic's picture

The unreported story is that if that guy's stimulus passes, it will move the ceiling up pre Election Day.

That fight will get refought in September of next year.  Yes, the fight that cost him 15% of approval.

I'm not all that anti Obama, but the profoundly stupid things he does are really mind boggling.

Jumbotron's picture

Another chance for conservatives and libertarians to cave.

Stoploss's picture

So much for the queasing.


That's a handy little piece of information to have right there.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

The ceiling, the ceiling is on fire!

We don't need no fiat, let the Cash_Is_Trash burn!

Jumbotron's picture

Pardon me.....

Another chance for conservatives to cave and libertarians to show how ineffectual they are.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Libertarians have been completely discredited. Equity prices have plummeted over the last few weeks as market participants have been unable to think positively and unwilling to spend. This is PROOF of the disastrous nature of free market prices. OBVIOUSLY the opinion of an eloquent and charismatic nobel prize winner like Dr Paul Krugman is worth more than some redneck doomer libertarian in a pickup truck. And hence experts should have a larger influence on prices and capital allocation than the common people. It's just common sense! I'm sure Keynes is turning in his grave while all these irrational and incompetent market participants continue to distort our economy with their quaint, naive and uninformed opinions.

NotApplicable's picture

Oh yeah! Well my truck is paid for, thank you.

j0nx's picture

Are you for real dufus or are you just trolling for neg hits?

RichyRoo's picture

I'm pretty sure MillionDollarBonus_ is being sarcastic, but for those reading along at home...

The crash of 07/08 was in fact proof that central planning fails and the free market will revert to some semblance of true percieved speculative value at some point. The market was propped up for too long by cheap money, and the mortgages underlying MBS were mispriced in risk terms. These were failures of central planning.

The Crash was the market fixing these problems, and if the central planners had kept out of the way, the companies involved (TBTF) would have been efficiently broken up and the profitable parts purchased by investors at a more reasonable value. The worthless bits would have been written off, and those who foolishly invested in them would have lost their money. Which is free market capitalism.

This would have been bad for retirees who were unwittingly forced by central planners to invest in assets of poor quality, but again that is a failure of central planning, not the market.

To prop up asset values in the vain hope that things will change back to how they were is ridiculous. Libertarians were right, the market was right, the Keynesians and central planners are wrong and the market will prevail eventually as it always has since well before Adam Smith or the invention of the term 'free market' or 'capitalism' because people will only pay what they can for what they need and eventually the illusions are dispelled.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

You're argument is based on the premise that all opinions are equal in the market place. But this simply isn't true. The crash happens only because the general population decide to pay less for stocks. They make these decisions based on quaint, peasant-like preferences. Only PROVEN professionals and seasoned pros should be pricing goods in the market place, and the rest of the population shouldn't have to worry about these issues since they are far to complicated. They can happily trade goods and services at the prices set by the experts. In this system, market crashes are a thing of the past because the experts are too cool headed and professional to panic and set lower prices.

AuShoot's picture

That's funny shit.  Thanks for the laugh.

spinone's picture

Hard to take economic analysis from someone who doesn't know your from you're. Thanks for checking in from the flyover states. Come again soon.

GPW's picture

You're putting us on aren't you?  No one could be as moronic as you appear to be.  

CapitalAnarchy's picture

Does anyone remember economics is a study of human behavior? "Professionals" and "experts" don't set prices. Prices are agreed upon by individuals participating in a transaction based upon self-interest. Is MillionDollarBonus a bad comedian, not finished with undergraduate studies, or just plain retarded? Sorry, just had to add some sort of ad hominem attack in the end there. Fucking stupid.

andybev01's picture

Doomer libertarians, redneck or otherwise, drive Volvo's.

Moe Howard's picture

Hey, million dollar dickhed, there is no nobel prize for economics, and loser krugman never got a nobel, as cheap as they are given out. Example: warmonger obama gets one - war on libya "just because".

tmosley's picture

Eh?  What libertarians?

The people the Tea Party voted for have proven quite clearly that they aren't libertarian.  It's still just Ron out there, so far as I know.

UGrev's picture

Thank you for saying this.. I fully concur. They are too busy whooping up Bachman who is clearly not presidential material in my opinion and then singing up the praises of Perry the Platypus.. the "double agent" who says he's conservative but actually plays for the elites. 

Ron Paul.. check the box or write in.. 

Moe Howard's picture

Decepti-con Perry is the opposite of what he claims to be, in a bizzaro way. Example: Claims to be conservative, was state Algore 4 President campaign manager in Tx. Claims to be hereto, is actually gayboy. More to follow

ArkansasAngie's picture

Hot dog!  That was so much fun last time. 

It would have been better if it was announced before Obummer's speech tonight.

LookingWithAmazement's picture

But but but ... the debt ceiling was raised last month? Or not?

William Murderface's picture

Just think, another $500 billion and we can keep Solyndra in business at least another 12-18 months.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

yes LookingWithAmazement, it was raised.


If you havent been privvy to developments, prior to the agreement the govt was raiding the social security piggybank, and as soon as the debt ceiling was raised it repaid that piggybank (or so were led to believe) and that ate up much of the debt ceiling increase already

question, how much faith do you have in the basic mathematics skills of your congressmen & senators???

LookingWithAmazement's picture

They haven't reached the $16.772 trillion yet. So what's the problem?

oogs66's picture

but by then we will have obama's job plan so all will be good!

LookingWithAmazement's picture

Exactly. Boring world we live in.

EscapeKey's picture

How convenient. This debt ceiling will be broken, announced as "transitory", hence meaningless, and then when the real ceiling break eventually occours will be written off as insignificant, as it was already broken on this occasion.

Or am I just a cynic?

walküre's picture

This should bring EURUSD back to 1.45 next week.

Until.. Greece defaults (finally officially) and the USDEUR can go higher.

Depending on the schedule of default news and debt limit increases, the EUR could trade either 1.25 or 1.55 on 12/31/2011

By the way... we haven't seen official POMO schedules but anyone here believe the monetization is not ongoing? The PDs are still being primed and the money still goes into equities. The game has no end it seems.

buzzsaw99's picture

i can't wait for the potus speech tonight.

cossack55's picture

Gee, will he be addressing the 2012 budget that kicks in on October 1st?  Oh, thats right.

toady's picture

He is trying to spend more money, so I doubt he will mention that they hit the ceiling again...

Pay no attention to the figure behind the curtain!

JW n FL's picture



Social Security is VERY Sustainable..

But we would have to collect Taxes from the Top 0.1%.. to be able to pay for Social Security..

and the AARP does not have a Lobby big enough to stop the elite rich of America, Sorry!




As the same issue applies.. the Top 0.1% will not be Taxed! EVER!! America Can Not Afford Anything!

fishface's picture

The top 0,1% doesn't care about Social inSecurity

JW n FL's picture



My Rope doesnt care about stretching the Top 0.1%'s Neck!'s picture

Of course you'd rather just steal the money but if you have to slink around dark alleys in the dead of night with a garrote I'm sure you're up for that as well.

By the way, that makes you a bad person.



toady's picture

They don't want to pay for it, but that's how they feel about everything.

All the money coming in, nothing going out.

JW n FL's picture

Uploaded by on Sep 8, 2011

This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss the threatening downward spiral of all out war of bankers versus everyone else. In the second half of the show Max talks to Israeli economist, Shir Hever, about protests, apartheid and the warfare state.'s picture

No, it's the war of the looters and moochers against those who work and save. It's clear what side you're on.

RichyRoo's picture

talking about taxing the top 0.1% is neosocialist nonsense for two reasons.

First, it ignores the fact that the reason these people have so much money is because they have bought and paid for the political system which gives it to them, there is no way that same system will take anything away from them.

Second, it doesnt address the root causes of the wealth imbalance which is exessive financialisation of the economy at the expense of the real economy. This is again a systemic issue, and has its root causes in the fiat/fractional system.

If you dont end the fed and let the markets set interest rates, and require extensive transparency for OTC derivatives (along with some kind of Tobin tax), the financeers will just create enough money to buy the world back for themseleves no matter how much you tax them.

twinsdad's picture

Remember, the Social Security payroll tax applies only to earnings up to a certain ceiling. (That ceiling is now $106,800.) 

Today, though, the Social Security payroll tax hits only about 84 percent of total income.

It went from 90 percent to 84 percent because a larger and larger portion of total income has gone to the top. In 1983, the richest 1 percent of Americans got 11.6 percent of total income. Today the top 1 percent takes in more than 20 percent

If we want to go back to 90 percent, the ceiling on income subject to the Social Security tax would need to be raised to $180,000.

Presto. Social Security’s long-term (beyond 26 years from now) problem would be solved.


Moe Howard's picture

NPR said don't worry, all good [today! On all bullshit considered] They said even if you are 20 you will get 75 per cent of benefits if they don't change anything at all.

They are really smoking the hopium there, I must say.'s picture

Yeah, Robert Reich. He's the same White House adviser who told congress that they didn't want to hire white people with the Obama stimulus money. Keep on rootin' for that guy.

william shatner's picture

Does this means another US downgrade when the ceiling is raised........again?

centerline's picture

Next time will be an upgrade if they dont argue about it. Political unity will save us. Debts don't matter anyhow.


Jumbotron's picture

Nope...they got rid of the guy who made that downgrade.

Rainman's picture

No such thing as a debt ceiling anyway. All spending is on autopilot. A debt ceiling is just another prop on the crisis governance stage.