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Hi, My Name Is Europe...And This Is What Happens When My 12-Step Program Fails
Unaccustomed as we are to discussing the American Psychological Association's 12-Steps to recovery, Credit Suisse have produced a clarifying reduced set that enables us to better judge the road being taken by the heterogeneous set of deaf-dumb-and-blind monkeys currently 'solving' the European addiction issues. The critical underpinning, that we have tirelessly brought to the public's attention, is a fear that the illustrious leadership of our world are not even grappling with the real issues. CS tries to answer the following deeper questions: Are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait? Are we building credibility and starting to stem this overwhelming tide, or are we pretending, taking the target of our addiction from whatever source we can find it (latest target: the IMF) in the interests of a brief respite?
Policymakers, led by Chancellor Merkel, have started to recognize the existence and nature of the problem. We are irresistibly reminded of the steps towards recovery from addiction; the addiction in question being the par pretense and curing debt with debt.
Chancellor Merkel said last week, “The summit won’t be the final point where we regain the confidence of others, but it will be a stepping stone, a marker on the road. All of the sins of omission and commission of the past cannot be undone by waving a magic wand.”
This reduced set of 'steps' is required for investors to be confident that leadership are moving forward positively as opposed to hiding their stash in a top cupboard for later - or addressing the wrong issues.
Steps 0 to 2 seem most critical for now with Credit Suisse pointing to the following for Step 1:
...an acid test for any discussions, and the reason we expect disappointment, is whether the proposals:
1) Seek to cure debt with debt / confuse the markets into seeing solvency created for free / maintain the bezzle / damage credibility; or
2) The opposite and provide a visible mechanism for bringing costs of the order of a large fraction of a trillion euro or more to the core.
And Step 2 - acceptance that the market can help - is also very evident from recent actions:
the [CDS] ban may have a narrow target of the mythical “evil New York hedge funds” but is essentially a paper tiger, in our view. Unfortunately, it shows a mind-set of confronting markets, as does the truly bizarre proposal to regulate ratings agencies’ opinions of sovereigns.
Commission consultation on “eurobonds” suggests a slow change in this mindset, but we submit that, unless markets are enrolled as allies, rather than marks to be fooled in an ever-accelerating game of financial three-card Monte, which is what many proposals remind us of, progress is impossible.
In conclusion, CS wonders
are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait? Are we building credibility and starting to stem this overwhelming tide, or are we pretending, doing the sovereign equivalent of lending our clients money to buy our shares, as has emerged this week in one corner of the banking system. (Why? What’s wrong with that? We took the shares as security…)
So we anticipate disappointment, but we have the first glimmerings of hope that the long road back is being recognized.
Unfortunately, we do not think the market thinks in these terms just yet, and may even be pleasantly surprised (or at least caught in shorts) by some sort of crazy EFSF bidding process. The addiction would be fed, but the rush would not last for long, and the eventual cure will be even harder.
But one day we will not be disappointed; bullets will be bitten, cold turkeys endured and the markets will be enrolled as allies in a financial reconstruction effort not seen for 60 years. We do not want to be in the way of that rally, but it does not seem likely that it will come next week.
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this is gettin' tired, bitchez.
markets rise
Hi my name is the World and a huge crash and disorder is what happens when Europe fails.
http://azizonomics.com/2011/10/23/surprise-surprise/
And again. This is how wars start.
What if Fort Knox is empty? How do we get our Gold back?
http://sgtreport.com/2011/10/brad-meltzers-decoded-fort-knox/
Fort Knox IS empty...it was leased to the primary dealers who then dumped it on the market and purchased interest bearing T-bonds with the proceeds. Ain't no getting it back.
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/
How about a couple of cruse missiles in the side of a Rothschild chateau? Or a daisy cutter bunker buster bomb/ That should open their stolen stash.
"Are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait?"
I've been waiting for the multiplier effect to kick in so the explosion of debt and default will explode supper nova style and there will be no banksters left alive.
The only gold in Ft Knox is one room with some coin melt, the last people to be allowed in said the the gold they were allowed to see was a strange copper color.
It reminds me a whole bunch of 2007 - after the credit markets seized up in late July, but the stock market kept rising until October.
That huge disconnect seems to be happening again, except the problem now is Europe instead of the MBS market.
no kiddin'
can we get this party started....
I mean what's left after you officially rule out the magic wand?
They should declare Debt a GOD and just tell the world he works in mysterous ways
“Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.” Dean Vernon Wormer
It is amazing how many traders make it that way!
I pretty much 'tuned out' this circus-merry go round is spinning far too long for it's own good
or fall
12 step,
yeah,
to be running up this bartab, theyve got to be drunk
or stupid
Drunk, Yes. And now debating on the best way to skip out on paying the tab and leaving it with the owners of the bar...the tax payers.....
The Gypsy 12 step.
First Marcozy, then joined by Merkill.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T39kuFf5cWQ
No cares in the world.
... or truly evil....
CS might not be the first to go but it won't be spared, either. Hope they listen to their own advice.
More like 1,200 step and each step is the same.
I HAVE ENOUGH DYSFUNCTIONAL IDIOTS AROUND ME ALREADY
Soon USA will need this. Very soon.
MERKEL
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I read your whole post but I'd like a little more clarification.
1.)We're not powerless over debt and our lives are totally under our control.
2.) Came to believe that Goldman Sachs could restore us to fiscal sanity.
3.) Made a decision to turn our will, lives, future, well being, health, welfare and sanity over to the care of an absolutely buttfuck insane incompetent bureaucracy
4.) Made a list of everything we've screwed up
5.) Thrown up our hands and taken 17,000 mg. Xanax, 300 50mg Ambien, 200 150-500 Vicodin, 1 bottle of Vick's NyQuil and washed it all down with 2 liters of vodka.
Say goodnight, EMU
Wow wee are you ok after all the drug. I can get u some Lithium Carbonate
must...go......shopping......la..ter...
nightnight
5.) Thrown up our hands and taken 17,000 mg. Xanax, 300 50mg Ambien, 200 150-500 Vicodin, 1 bottle of Vick's NyQuil and washed it all down with 2 liters of vodka.
See...thats the problem right there...no one makes a decent PDA anymore, I've gone almost ten years not knowing Vicodin is like Valium!!!...all this time I could have been in a self induced semi-coma completely oblivious to the goings on.
Someone is gonna pay...dearly.
Silence is Golden!
Communist Land Sales Hurting China’s Poor
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-23/chinese-see-communist-land-sale...
Chinese avoid it by setting themselves on fire so their children will keep the house. They usually won't take it then because of the bad PR. There's no private property in China unless you are big business. You sign a 70 year lease when you buy property and chi-com can take it from you at any time. Property is more expensive in China than the US. Companies have the government deal with the people. That's communism for you.
fertile imagery, it has everything.
codependence
enablers
denial
debtoholism
liver disease
detox quivers
hair of the dog
relapse
Accountability, comes to mind? Ehhh! Yes BUZZ you are correct!
the french whine that the greeks are ouzo-ing up all the booze-O. lol
Synonym for Ouzo is Rut Juice. Don't believe me? Means you've never tried it.
Liver, ( explendatures) , Aplore!
lol.
hair of the dog...
we called it 'jungle juice'
after a trash can full of that stuff (20 liters of various alcohol and cut up fruit),....
our barracks almost got burned to the ground...
not remembering nothin'...just people tellin' me i was pukin' up black stuff...
12 guys in custody awaiting court martial...
yep, GOOD TIMES...
Mix a quart of Everclear with a gallon of cheap punch (any flavor) and chances are good the law dogs will get involved at some point.
no kiddin'
thats why i havent had a drink since i was 19...
thanks for the laugh, buzz...
And you are all of 30?
Oh behave! That would still be a respectable 11 years on the wagon.
Keep an eye on the T10' Thursday!
financial prolapse....
psssst! hey, bro!
can ya spare a large fraction of a Tril?
soon all that will buy is one bottle of md 20 20
Or Wild Irish Rose...with a coupon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTxWoEy4MoA
lol...the bird bird bird...the bird is the word.
at that price I may have to go lower end.
lower end than mad dog? omg!
http://www.bumwine.com/md2020.html
...with liberty and an affordable buzz for all plebes.
Starts with the " Green", Toe Nails! BOOOOO!
World power swings back to America and Money ???
http://heavenbounf.blogspot.com/
is this for real new book claims we are on the rise ??? American Phoenix ? maybe with the right politics...
Thanks Tyler. Now that you have "12 Step Program" in the Article Title, GoogleAds is generating all matter of Rehab, Detox, Recovery, and Sobriety ads on all over the page.
Hail technology.
I, personally am not what you are implying. I am in direction of the 12 steps of investing. Up wising/ might I make a suggestion?
Thank You , ( I WILL) ... Take your panties back to the ( Liberal Quonset hut), and call me after your , HOPIUM injection!
There are ad's? Oh yeah, I'm running Ad Block Plus.
Step 0 s/b: drink heavily throughout Steps 1-12 where Eurotardation is concerned.
(Advice for the peanut gallery.)
mynhair ? Care to join the quorum?
Sorry Yen, too busy cleaning my brakes with Everclear. Works great as a drying agent.
Mynhair? Curiosity? Are you still herding Cats? Joking of coUrce!
Welcome aboard CS. Glad you could join us for some coffee, soft drinks or tea and clear eyed conversation. Please continue to swing the ax, or try the chainsaw if your arms get tired. Best wishes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOgLc15x9fw
Meanwhile, there is a fire to put out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYUrdMzbtUg
Merkeling hIEr
Concensus, Yah?
MiTTwocH
ahhhhhhhhhhhh NicLass VEN r u going 2 DUMP ZHat BiTcH CarLA? Yah VEn?
my clone is backl it's been a while
french domestic, too
zeroHedge and tyler's gold pieces are cited several times in today's Where in the world is the gold? from GATA'a chris powell
Can you say "i will accept reality" 10,000 times in 15 minutes?
Me neither.
Nor shall they.
SAY LA VIVE' childhood.
Please, just loan me some more money one more time and I promise I will not ever ask again....
Gordo, would that be a burger or a beer? or a kilo of crack?
I'd gladly pay you Tuesday for a hambuger today....
This has nothing to do with Merkeling! Get with the plan Folks! The Tylers have!
You were all much better off on your own anyway. I love Europe and I respect Europeans. I love your individual cultures and your own histories (yeah, even the French).
No shame in making an error.
Just move on.
Folks, all this is non event. The stock market will continue to rally. US$ is dead because Bernanke is determined to kill it.
It ain't dead, it's just resting!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj8RIEQH7zA
True.
But Hells bells:
It's Sunday night and we just wanna have fuuuun.
Serenity now...insanity later.
Gold. Silver. There will be a mad rush by all that goes viral. It happens like this. 1) prices rising. People want to know why. 2) masses learn it is because the fed releases trillions of new dollars into the system. 3). People see that the smart guys have been buying gold and silver for years, so they learn why. 4) the race to save with real money goes ballistic.
Gold is fairly valued at $15,000/ounce when fiat is redeemable for gold. This is so easy it almost feels like I'm stealing from all the sheep.
Whatever Timmay. Now pull your pants up and do your job.
From what I read, its not too bad if they can keep exporting the monetary inflation. Its when the world realizes the FRNs are worthless, dumps them, and they are come rushing back home that the hyperinflation will hit. Then, as folks try to convert the FRNs into anything tangible, the velocity sky rockets and things get even worse. What is the word for hyper-hyper?
Damien! It's all for you!
Lets' discuss the { 13 th' step}. <> old skool , Munsters Style!@@@
Larry Fink want a European P-PIP with leverage provided by "Governments." It is that kind of genius that warrants $50 million per year in pay...
So once the 50% or 60% or whatever haircuts on Greek debt are realized, their fiscal situation will be vastly improved. With half the debt burden gone, I guess they will probably be AAA. So then they get to resume issuing all over again, right? Or will there be some rule that they, having just defaulted, aren't allowed to issue again until the people they ripped off get paid back?
Sorry I'm not ironic or sarcastic or funny, I just would really like to know.
Yes, countries grow again after defaulting on their debt. 50% is not enough, however. There is no way they can repay 50% of their debt. Defaults are negotiated over and over and over. The first haircut will not be the last. In the end I expect Greece to fail to pay 95% of their debts.
Then Greece has a chance to grow. It's not a given. But possible.
The rest of the world pays the price for their bad debt. Growth is hampered outside of Greece.
Thanks. I don't doubt your point about the size of haircut. But the implications I was thinking of was if their .gov spending was suddenly truncated to revenues with no new issuance, they'd have to cut spending in half, or some huge percentage. Imagine if the US fed spending was truncated to revenues. Everything cut in half, or half of everything zeroed, or some combination thereof. It would be enormously deflationary, depressionary. Sorry if I'm belaboring the obvious. Just a personal failing.
I'm dubious about the idea they would be allowed to continue to issue. The Germans have been fairly consistently opposed to being liable for other countries' debts in an open-ended way, and I think they see the moral hazard of just allowing Greece to carry on with spending ad libidum after the default. There's at least that much awareness of the reality of their situation. All the other PIIGS will be next in line, and I doubt Germany could recapitalize Deutsche Bank if they all default, let alone any other banks. I expect there will be strings attached to EFSF. It's interesting because real austerity, not the phony faux austerity Greece has practiced to date, will be a mini-preview of what is to come elsewhere, if sovereigns do not elect to ultimately attempt to print their way out.
"It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times."
I thought that was pretty good for a monkey.
Here we are: Halloween is almost upon us and we're still whistling past the graveyard....
with all this bad fundamental analysis why are the markets rising?
Because our currency is crap.
Very True. Recently I started wondering why some mavens keep emphasizing retention of capitalization. If my capital is crap and getting more and more worthless (and I am already gold diversified), shouldn't I be invested in the Dow 30 just so I own something of relative value (ie a company) instead of toilet paper? Serious question.
You could put your money in a store of value. Used guns are a good store of value if you pay near market price even better if it's below. The price of guns go up with inflation so they hold their value really well. Ammo too. The only way the value would go down is if there is a massive import of surplus guns but that'll never happen. If the shit hits the fan or guns are outlawed then your investment just doubled. You can't lose. Get the latest edition of the blue book of gun values and start going to gun shows. Do all private sales because you don't want to end up in a database or pay sales tax.
Markets are not rising. Dollar is falling in real terms. Markets appear to be rising because you mistakenly assume the dollar has fixed value.
It's much better to chart the markets in gold and not dollars. Then you see the real picture.
Don't worry everyone everything turns out okay. How do I know? I am from the future. I got here in a time machine that Tyler built (will build). The solution was so simple as to be almost incredibly obvious. The Chinese paid off the Europeans debt who with the economic boom that resulted paid off the American debt that doubled the wave of world wide prosperity which between both paid the Chinese back with interest and enough to buy every one in China a round of drinks.
Two questions time traveler Thucydides:
Who wins the World Series? And why are your clothes all charred and burned??
Rangers win on a seventh game ninth inning error made by the pitcher trying to catch a routine pop fly and so knocking the ball out of center fielder's glove allowing the winning run to score......everyone in the future wears charred and burning clothes...oh it slipped my mind, I forgot to mention the Third World War that resulted when the debt forgiveness party got out of hand.
Rangers win on a seventh game ninth inning error made by the pitcher trying to catch a routine pop fly and so knocking the ball out of center fielder's glove allowing the winning run to score......everyone in the future wears charred and burning clothes...oh it slipped my mind, I forgot to mention the Third World War that resulted when the debt forgiveness party got out of hand.
About the only ones worth reading nowdays are reggie and posts in tyler's column. Mad Hedgie was often good, not always. Testosterone Pit came on strong but apparently only has two things to say.
The level of knowledge difference between most of the tylers versus the secondary level contributors above his column) is huge.
Love the macro analysis even if they are sometimes one-sided.
Bring on more knowledgeable secondary contributors. Zero Hedge could use the depth, particularly more technical analysis or informed contrarian thought.
A little moralizing is ok too.
Thanks for asking my opinion.
There was one guy who used to write somewhat frequently under tyler who was somewhat ignorant of market and economic theory, but i dont think i have seen him back in quite a while. The main one recently is superb.
There should be a term for nut-sacks who reply to their own posts...
I agree. There should be.
I'm from the future. We do have a term for those nut-sacks. We call them Reese Bobbies :)
Seriously, this site is awesome!!! Just started reading it.
Who is Tyler Durden?
1st rule of fight club...
Asian markets optimistic. No collapse. Let's stop the eurobashing. They will fix it on Wednesday. Then the PM-dump will start, growth will return and markets will soar.
LAVA!!!!
Am I the only one getting impatient? Let's just do this thing already. EU collapses, US collapses, derivatives market explodes, protests, chaos, communities come together becoming more self-reliant, people get off the hopium and consumerism, people rediscover what it means to be human, out with the old guard, in with the new, new system is established based on using technology and resources for the betterment of all? Or just bloodbath? Either way, let's get this show on the road. No?
Cocaine is bad for you...
If you wash the junk out with pure acetone its actually pretty freaking good.
Don't worry everybody, the rumor to spur the Asian markets is out. The headline on CNBC is that the EU will draw on credit provided by China and Brazil. By DIJA open the rumor will be turn out to be false, but then the 2nd rumor of the day will be that the Russians are going to bail them out so it will be a rip-fest on the Dow. Wait, didn't they try this same cycle a couple of weeks ago? It will not matter, I think it will work again! Rumors FUCK YEAH they are going to save the motherfuckin' day!
Over Lays I say! Haberdashery/ bubbles? Long live Zero Hedge! The writing is on the wall!
You got two days of rallies (rangy at best), Mon, Tues, maybe Wends. You have to factor in that after 1000yrs of European 'issues' (prejudices, vendettas, frustration, who has the best looking women -which is the Dutch, followed by Poland) they will begin to surface, hence the psychosis of the current BS from the current set of leaders in the EU. Germany needs to make sure that the PIIGS and the banks that got greedy from PIIG toxic waste have to take a huge haircut. Italy doesn't want to even think about taking on some pain, Greece is their mirror...this will keep Portugal and Spain sympathetic with Italy. The markets (equities) are still thin volume wise, so, SHTF will happen say Thursday, or Friday when the Italians lose the plot completely, France gets threatened with a AAA downgrade and Merkel realizes that Germans are now wanting to know why their taxpayer monies are bailing out the French/German banks and underwriting French AAA (till it gets downgraded). A house of cards that will collapse in a very short period of time. On top of all that the Occupy protests grow as Europe reminds us all how they riot better than anyone else.
Chump ' Relax.
...in saying that any market players here wanting to short, I'd stay sidelined till the top ranges show up. Which could be pushing up to Aug 2011 resistance.
maybe end week...maybe... if China doesn't implode in the next few days.
It's your turn in the barrel ( chump666) ). We have Faith in you!
yeah should be ok, can't see huge mega rallies here, they have been rangy at the best of times. but i think we will creep into the Aug lows. short the market timed for maybe Thursday/friday...but y'know there is beautiful chaos trade here. don't want to miss this one.
i think the end-of-the-world trade is coming, that is China. maybe end yr or early next yr
um, what happened to the "better put on hedges ASAP Sunday evening?" oh yeah, you'd have been down over 13 /ES points at the high so far (probably stopped out at that point) ... 10 points as we speak.
ZH crew. Respectfully. Quit spinning ! Thank You. YEN
Check out the brain of PIMCO...China will "dramatically slowdown" but won't crash!?!
F*ck me...
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
I just bot a ton of calls on ammunition (to open). Never been exercised and only been dropped once...
(Alternatively, what's the market equivalent of writing covered ammo calls. Think about it.)
European Banks May Need €25 Trillion Bail-Out, Secret EC Document Warns
U.S. Rescue May Reach $23.7 Trillion
FORCE MAJEURE! – Call Void All Bankster Bogus Derivative Debts! Because paying off these trough fraud induced debts have become a technical and practical impossibility.
European Sovereign Debt – Can’t We All Just ‘Net’ Along?
Coming Soon: The $600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency Meeting
This document proves all along that current euro crisis is a resurgence of 'under the carpet' hidden bank debts since the last 2008 crisis. THe document is dated 2/2009. Says it all, the Euro can kicking began as of then...
Tarzan said it right! Cheat Ya!
Hi my name is Dixie, we and the Duke Boys have been trying to keep Hogg out of the Chicken Farm for a long time. It's easier to upset and be chased all over the county by that fat slob than to sit at home and quietly accept the loss of our way of life.
You Euros should know better... 2000 years of history. Sheesh.
1.3934
(!)
I had that coming didnt i?
Well sit a spell and wait a while.
If I understand the point of this article, the Banksters have won. Euroland and the politicians are capitulating. ;)
Now that is what I call progress ;)))))))))
BTW. Socialism es muerte.
This is my take on the whole EU summit and the farce that is the crisis and the markets
http://viewfromthewilds.blogspot.com/2011/10/panic-what-happens-when-reality-rips.html
Now they're looking at Norway, which is completely outside the EU, and wondering if their oil fund can save the day.
Norway is already deeply hocked (via its sovereign fund), upto its ears in PIIGS bonds. Can't ask them for more.
"Unaccustomed as we are to discussing the American Psychological Association's 12-Steps to recovery"
Really? You run out this tired bullshit at least once a week. Less pop psychology cliches please.