Hi, My Name Is Europe...And This Is What Happens When My 12-Step Program Fails

Tyler Durden's picture

Unaccustomed as we are to discussing the American Psychological Association's 12-Steps to recovery, Credit Suisse have produced a clarifying reduced set that enables us to better judge the road being taken by the heterogeneous set of deaf-dumb-and-blind monkeys currently 'solving' the European addiction issues. The critical underpinning, that we have tirelessly brought to the public's attention, is a fear that the illustrious leadership of our world are not even grappling with the real issues. CS tries to answer the following deeper questions: Are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait? Are we building credibility and starting to stem this overwhelming tide, or are we pretending, taking the target of our addiction from whatever source we can find it (latest target: the IMF) in the interests of a brief respite?

Policymakers, led by Chancellor Merkel, have started to recognize the existence and nature of the problem. We are irresistibly reminded of the steps towards recovery from addiction; the addiction in question being the par pretense and curing debt with debt.

 

Chancellor Merkel said last week, “The summit won’t be the final point where we regain the confidence of others, but it will be a stepping stone, a marker on the road. All of the sins of omission and commission of the past cannot be undone by waving a magic wand.”

 

This reduced set of 'steps' is required for investors to be confident that leadership are moving forward positively as opposed to hiding their stash in a top cupboard for later - or addressing the wrong issues.

Steps 0 to 2 seem most critical for now with Credit Suisse pointing to the following for Step 1:

...an acid test for any discussions, and the reason we expect disappointment, is whether the proposals:

 

1) Seek to cure debt with debt / confuse the markets into seeing solvency created for free / maintain the bezzle / damage credibility; or

 

2) The opposite and provide a visible mechanism for bringing costs of the order of a large fraction of a trillion euro or more to the core.

And Step 2 - acceptance that the market can help - is also very evident from recent actions:

the [CDS] ban may have a narrow target of the mythical “evil New York hedge funds” but is essentially a paper tiger, in our view. Unfortunately, it shows a mind-set of confronting markets, as does the truly bizarre proposal to regulate ratings agencies’ opinions of sovereigns.

 

Commission consultation on “eurobonds” suggests a slow change in this mindset, but we submit that, unless markets are enrolled as allies, rather than marks to be fooled in an ever-accelerating game of financial three-card Monte, which is what many proposals remind us of, progress is impossible.

In conclusion, CS wonders

are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait? Are we building credibility and starting to stem this overwhelming tide, or are we pretending, doing the sovereign equivalent of lending our clients money to buy our shares, as has emerged this week in one corner of the banking system. (Why? What’s wrong with that? We took the shares as security…)

 

So we anticipate disappointment, but we have the first glimmerings of hope that the long road back is being recognized.

 

Unfortunately, we do not think the market thinks in these terms just yet, and may even be pleasantly surprised (or at least caught in shorts) by some sort of crazy EFSF bidding process. The addiction would be fed, but the rush would not last for long, and the eventual cure will be even harder.

 

But one day we will not be disappointed; bullets will be bitten, cold turkeys endured and the markets will be enrolled as allies in a financial reconstruction effort not seen for 60 years. We do not want to be in the way of that rally, but it does not seem likely that it will come next week.

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tickhound's picture

this is gettin' tired, bitchez.

Earl of Chiswick's picture
Hi, My Name Is Europe...And This Is What Happens When My 12-Step Program Fails

markets rise

spiral_eyes's picture

Hi my name is the World and a huge crash and disorder is what happens when Europe fails.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/10/23/surprise-surprise/

 

navy62802's picture

And again. This is how wars start.

SilverDoctors's picture

Fort Knox IS empty...it was leased to the primary dealers who then dumped it on the market and purchased interest bearing T-bonds with the proceeds. Ain't no getting it back.

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/

Michael's picture

How about a couple of cruse missiles in the side of a Rothschild chateau? Or a daisy cutter bunker buster bomb/ That should open their stolen stash.

"Are we recognizing the cost that is coming to the core, multiplying as we wait?"

I've been waiting for the multiplier effect to kick in so the explosion of debt and default will explode supper nova style and there will be no banksters left alive.

steelrules's picture

The only gold in Ft Knox is one room with some coin melt, the last people to be allowed in said the the gold they were allowed to see was a strange copper color.

 

midtowng's picture

It reminds me a whole bunch of 2007 - after the credit markets seized up in late July, but the stock market kept rising until October.

That huge disconnect seems to be happening again, except the problem now is Europe instead of the MBS market.

X.inf.capt's picture

 

no kiddin'

can we get this party started....

tickhound's picture

I mean what's left after you officially rule out the magic wand?

Quaderratic Probing's picture

They should declare Debt a GOD and just tell the world he works in mysterous ways

The Big Ching-aso's picture

“Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.”   Dean Vernon Wormer

 

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

It is amazing how many traders make it that way!

Azannoth's picture

I pretty much 'tuned out' this circus-merry go round is spinning far too long for it's own good

X.inf.capt's picture

12 step,

yeah,

to be running up this bartab, theyve got to be drunk

or stupid

 

NumNutt's picture

Drunk, Yes. And now debating on the best way to skip out on paying the tab and leaving it with the owners of the bar...the tax payers.....

Al Gorerhythm's picture

The Gypsy 12 step.

First Marcozy, then joined by Merkill.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T39kuFf5cWQ

No cares in the world.

pauhana's picture

CS might not be the first to go but it won't be spared, either.  Hope they listen to their own advice.

SilverIsKing's picture

More like 1,200 step and each step is the same.

apberusdisvet's picture

 

 

I HAVE ENOUGH DYSFUNCTIONAL IDIOTS AROUND ME ALREADY

 

I am Jobe's picture

Soon USA will need this. Very soon.

zen0's picture

MERKEL

 

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Temporalist's picture

I read your whole post but I'd like a little more clarification.

knukles's picture

1.)We're not powerless over debt and our lives are totally under our control.
2.) Came to believe that Goldman Sachs could restore us to fiscal sanity.
3.) Made a decision to turn our will, lives, future, well being, health, welfare and sanity over to the care of an absolutely buttfuck insane incompetent bureaucracy
4.) Made a list of everything we've screwed up
5.) Thrown up our hands and taken 17,000 mg. Xanax, 300 50mg Ambien, 200 150-500 Vicodin, 1 bottle of Vick's NyQuil and washed it all down with 2 liters of vodka.

Say goodnight, EMU

I am Jobe's picture

Wow wee are you ok after all the drug. I can get u some Lithium Carbonate

slewie the pi-rat's picture

must...go......shopping......la..ter...

nightnight

nmewn's picture

5.) Thrown up our hands and taken 17,000 mg. Xanax, 300 50mg Ambien, 200 150-500 Vicodin, 1 bottle of Vick's NyQuil and washed it all down with 2 liters of vodka.

See...thats the problem right there...no one makes a decent PDA anymore, I've gone almost ten years not knowing Vicodin is like Valium!!!...all this time I could have been in a self induced semi-coma completely oblivious to the goings on.

Someone is gonna pay...dearly.

saiybat's picture

Chinese avoid it by setting themselves on fire so their children will keep the house. They usually won't take it then because of the bad PR. There's no private property in China unless you are big business. You sign a 70 year lease when you buy property and chi-com can take it from you at any time. Property is more expensive in China than the US. Companies have the government deal with the people. That's communism for you.

buzzsaw99's picture

fertile imagery, it has everything.

 

codependence

enablers

denial

debtoholism

liver disease

detox quivers

hair of the dog

relapse

Yen Cross's picture

Accountability, comes to mind? Ehhh! Yes BUZZ you are correct!

buzzsaw99's picture

the french whine that the greeks are ouzo-ing up all the booze-O. lol

SheHunter's picture

Synonym for Ouzo is Rut Juice.  Don't believe me?  Means you've never tried it.

Yen Cross's picture

  Liver,  ( explendatures) , Aplore!

X.inf.capt's picture

lol.

hair of the dog...

we called it 'jungle juice'

after a trash can full of that stuff (20 liters of various alcohol and cut up fruit),....

our barracks almost got burned to the ground...

not remembering nothin'...just people tellin' me i was pukin' up black stuff...

12 guys in custody awaiting court martial...

yep, GOOD TIMES...

buzzsaw99's picture

Mix a quart of Everclear with a gallon of cheap punch (any flavor) and chances are good the law dogs will get involved at some point.

X.inf.capt's picture

no kiddin'

 

thats why i havent had a drink since i was 19...

thanks for the laugh, buzz...

buzzsaw99's picture

Oh behave! That would still be a respectable 11 years on the wagon.

Yen Cross's picture

 Keep an eye on the  T10' Thursday!

Hulk's picture

financial prolapse....

slewie the pi-rat's picture

psssst!  hey, bro!

can ya spare a large fraction of a Tril?

buzzsaw99's picture

soon all that will buy is one bottle of md 20 20