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Hilsenrath: Fed's Kohn Says Will Give "Very Serious Consideration" To QE3
As always happens, about a week after Goldman telegraphs the need for QE3, which they did last Friday, the WSJ's Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath reaches out to the media and proceeds to give the secret QE handshake. Now in its third iteration. In an "exclusive" interview with the Fed's last tree monetary affairs committee, Donald Kohn, Vince Reinhart and Brian Matigan, Hilsenrath observes that according to these masters of the universe the chance of another recession is 20-40%, which we are confident is a given at 100%, but more importantly, he quotes Don Kohn who "said the Fed still has some options to support the economy, but "they're kind of limited." He said he expects the central bank, which holds a policy meeting Aug. 9, to wait and see whether the recovery is really losing steam before taking any action. If that's the case--and inflation is coming down--then he would give "very serious consideration" to a new round of bond purchases, he said." Well, the 30 Year is at 2011 lows, TIPS are screeching, and stocks are plunging: all indications that the market anticipates deflation. Looks like the only wildcard is whether the FOMC will determine next Tuesday that the economy has slowed down. Which it has. We believe the August 9 statement will be very interesting to most, and will result in some quite serious market volatility, as ever more are pricing in hints of an imminent resumption of LSAP or, in the least, Operation Twist with the confirmation likely to come at this year's Jackson Hole meeting, as we predicted back in April.
From the WSJ:
In an exclusive interview this week with The Wall Street Journal, Donald Kohn, Vincent Reinhart and Brian Madigan--the last three directors of the Fed's powerful monetary affairs committee--put the risk of a new economic contraction at between 20% and 40%. Madigan and Kohn said the Fed should consider a third round of bond purchases only if inflation slows from recent elevated levels and if the economy continues to underperform. But they cautioned a new purchase program, dubbed QE3, wouldn't represent a cure-all.
Reinhart, who said he gives Congress "a very low grade" like most Americans, believes the odds of a credit downgrade by rating companies haven't changed following the debt deal. Standard & Poor's was looking for 10-year budget cuts of $4.0 trillion to confirm the U.S.'s top-notch AAA rating.
Madigan, who advises Barclay Capital and teaches at Georgetown University after retiring from the central bank a year ago, said the Fed's $600 billion bond purchases that ended in June had a "relatively modest" positive effect on the economy. "Purchases of that order of magnitude could be helpful at the margin," he said in his first public interview since leaving the key position at the Fed.
"We're flying the plane slower and closer to the ground, so we're less resilient to adverse shocks," said Reinhart, who puts the odds of a new
recession at 40%. Following a financial crisis, seven out of 15 countries studied by Reinhart have experienced two recessions over a 10-year period.
Most important were Kohn's remarks:
Kohn said the Fed still has some options to support the economy, but "they're kind of limited." He said he expects the central bank, which holds a policy meeting Aug. 9, to wait and see whether the recovery is really losing steam before taking any action. If that's the case--and inflation is coming down--then he would give "very serious consideration" to a new round of bond purchases, he said.
Kohn noted the deal leaves lots of uncertainty over the path of fiscal policy, making it harder for the Fed to decide what to do with monetary policy. The debt deal doesn't specify what happens to the payroll-tax cut enacted in January and passes on the key long-term decisions of cutting the deficit to a bipartisan committee.
While more bond purchases could help the U.S. economy at the margin, Madigan said that providing more explicit guidance on how long the Fed's short-term interest rate remains close to zero--another easing option mentioned by Bernanke--wouldn't be so effective.
The irony is that we all know the Fed knows one thing and one thing only: printing, and any of its infinite variations, which can be named anything but which do nothing to change the fact that the Fed will i) continue to push risk assets higher, ii) continue to take on ridiculous duration risk: its DV01 now is about $1.5 billion if not more, and iii) issue its daily Conviction Sell Price Target on the USD as zero in the medium- to long-run.
Everything else is much overused foreplay and strategically placed mirrors.
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Meanwhile, in slumberland.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZS_6-IwMPjM
it'd be stupid if they do. china and russia and all the treasury holders are pissed at hell at this loose money zero interest rate policy bullshit. just yesterday putin came out with this:
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/02/vladimir-putin-america-is-a-parasite
When has anything these clowns have done made any sense?
Maybe he should "seriously consider" accepting the Flying Spaghetti Monster as his personal saviour?
could set up a great head fake with rumors of QE3 however. image the carnage when it fails to materialize.
Yeah, that could be a possibility. It's not like TPTB were not caught before betting against the financial products they themselves sell.
Words that politicians say mean nothing. Until they put their "money" where there mouths are, it means tee-tee.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHFDa9efCQU
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PRInT !!!
HHMmmm.... PRInT!!! .... looks like a nice logo to put on the jetpack for Silver :)
Dumbass Kohn was supposed to wait until 3:15 or 3: 25 p.m. to make this announcement!
We will see red reassert itself now, and everyone will worry their pretty heads off as tanks do a double intraday reversal!
Oooooh, The Bernank is gonna be mad at The Kohn!! Kohn is going to get cornholed before Moloch at Jackson Hole.
that's the real problem these days. Nobody is sticking to the script to the letter.... I even wonder if they all read it...
I was wondering what juiced stocks back to flat. Yea, dumbass should have waited.
This is a very sickly looking snap back. The quote stuffing directional moves are coming minute to minute, which is exactly what my board looked like this morning before she plunged.
Good luck with it...as there is obviously zero confidence in it.
He meant "BUY AGQ!!!!!!!!!"
it is very simple
the money printer will continue to print money.
He will print or die trying.
Does QE3 trigger an automatic downgrade of US debt?
if the rating agencies want to have any credibility, then yes.
They gave up their credibilty a long time ago. They showed their true colors when they jumped on the scare band wagon then followed up with a big....in the imortal words of Emily Litella...... "nevermind"
The rating agencies are a carbon copy of the CFTC. All bark no bite.
If the ratings agents are dirty whores, then no.
But in defense of the ratings agencies, the ratings are supposed to reflect the possibility of the return OF one's investment, not return ON one's investment. Since we can "print to fit", then technically, we'll always be AAA.
If you ask a real ratings agency then I guess they would say 'Yes'.
However, if you ask Moody's S&P or Fitch, they are more likely to take the view that more QE should result in an upgrade to the newly-created AAAA rating on the basis that there will be lots more money available with which to pay interest on the national debt. More money is always good, right?
Dagong, bitchez
Get it on,
Bang Dagong,
Get it on!
They will upgrade our credit rating to Quad A when Congress removes that pesky debt ceiling. Once you do that, your invincible in the eyes of those morons.
Moody's is rethinking its position and has spoken about the possibility of re-rating the U.S. as AAAA+++XtraSpecial, which is a new category they would create.
Everyone knows the US has been on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION since 2008, so this may just be more jawboning by Moody's
Bernank sez:
But will it listen?
This should be enough to immediately end the consecutive losing streak.
Edit: Boom, straight up, here we go to a green close on the most vague suggestion of QE3.
On the contrary - this could add to the losses.
The PDs, upon seeing this, should come to realize that if they depress the markets, it will force the hand of the FRB.
I'd reckon they already knew. And beyond that, there has probably been some active crushing of indices and commodities this week. Gold and silver are the rogues, but they will be dealt with. The objective is a point-to for "lessened inflation expectations". As for gold and silver, they (silver) will be vulnerable in the next couple of days to margin hikes and late US day takedowns. Once the downward momentum in everything is started, they will try to make the case for QE3.
Problem is: inflation is not expected to lessen until 2012.
Growth in producer input prices are heading downwards, this change amazingly materialized almost as soon as QE2 ended. Soon, input prices will decrease.
However, just because their input prices go down, does not mean consumer prices will fall as much as they increased. Ie, I keep seeing price increases down my local patrol station, but the drops do not match the equivalent rises.
This week my Quicken Inflation Index hit 9 - the number of budget categories I will exceed this calendar year. I only wish I could eliminate inflation in stuff required to live as easily as the Bernank claims he can.
Well, obviously you don't buy enough iPads.
True that - it was the iProperty Tax that pushed the number to 9.
Have you seen the new iStopPaying? It's pretty cool. Value up 100%. It's guaranteed to give you 100% or your money back.
Oh yes, second problem is: Donald Kohn is retired from the Fed.
Donald Lewis Kohn (born November 7, 1942) is an American economist who served as the former Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He is considered a moderate dove on fiscal policy. He retired after 40 years at the central bank in September, 2010.
Justin Bieber voiced his support for a QE3 like program and the markets loved it.
Coincidentally, 7 out of the top 10 spots on RoboFader's playlist are occupied by Justin Bieber songs.
Good call re: retired. Also, he said the same thing in Sept of 2010:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/business/economy/06fed.html
-sorry for the link to the liberal rag NYTimes...
Good call re: retired. Also, he said the same thing in Sept of 2010:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/business/economy/06fed.html
-sorry for the link to the liberal rag NYTimes...
Robots gotta robot. There's no humans on that swtich.
Dead cat bouncing.
meouch
Nice.
Oh, I thought there was no inflation. Well, gee.
ETA: Up goes the Dow and down goes gold...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/73/Slim-pickens_riding-the-bo...
double plus good
Tea Leaves = Read
That was the BJ the market was looking for.
Aaaaahhh, blessed relief. :)
Relief rallies of how long these days before it's rediscovered it's all back to fucked up normal, no way out of the box, screwed again, more of the same?
Who gets today's Gimp Mask award?
God I love it when it's just not wierd enough, yet.
Bring out the Gimp.
That was NOT his "hand."
The one armed violinist...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tD1Cl1L8WFQ
Well, it did feel like a limp prick hand shake. So you're saying..........what exactly?
QE3 will fix everything because interest rates are really high right now.
It's not like job growth, wage growth, or access to credit (none of which will happen for a helluva long time; at least until the big reset happens) are important fuel sources for consumption.
It's not like small to midsized business won't welcome another round of inflationary inputs into their business, so they can raise their prices some more, and lose even more volume, while their existing margins contract, also.
It's not like consumers are dying the death of a trillion paper cuts, and that if only by lowering mortgage rates another 25 basis points, all will be well.
The Bernank is a genius. Do more of the same, BernankBananacide.
/SARC
I still wonder who the fuck buys US Treasuries. Wow, a few percent yield, while the DXY is tanking. Makes no sense, and I suspect the PDs are mopping up all treasures at present, draining their reserves with the FRB.
The latest information with regards to reserves @ FRB dates back to June, when QE2 was still in effect, and hence worthless.
With money going for 0.18% at the discount window, any treasury yield above that equates to free money. It is an incestuous circle jerk between the .gov and the banks.
Who buys UST's? Anyone with enough info to profitably front-run the Fed.
QE in reality has nothing to do with mortgage affordablity or job growth. It is designed to inflate assets and that show up as growth, granted a fake one , but still pads the GDP numbers at least until after the elections.
And how.
If CPI indexed items double in price, even while sales of the items drop by 25% percent, The Bernanke declares it a raging success!
Live From Martha's Vineyard: Anticipation
Surprise, surprise.
......so the Jackson Hole confab was a success as telegraphed by the PM markets...
Hopefully, The Morgue was given sufficient notice to cover all silver shorts and get out of Dodge????
...they are part of the 'No Primary Dealer Left Behind' program, aren't they?
Yes!
Print that fuckin' money, buy them bonds, get them rates to -53.9% who gives a shit whether its nominal or real, save the fucking domestic economuy, save Europe, make another 116 Billion secret loans, loan out more of that tungsten plated shit from Ft.Knox, quick Blythe cover them silver shorts, rediscover the reality of no gold anywhere that ain't been segregated, allocated and unencumbered.
The Fed Is Your Friend!
Go Ben, Go Ben, Go Ben
And the Congress is taking 5 weeks off, exhausted from all that debt negociations, no fucking budget, let's all go hame and play o the slip n' slides, drink beer, never to be seen with the electorate...
Screw It Up, Screw It Up, Screw It Up
glory yes hallelujah!!!!!, prophicy fullfilled!!!!
I don't know... they haven't mentioned QE4 yet...
Oh we passed that about an hour ago.
Take the next left, down the hill.
It'll be somewhat different there.
You'll never recognize the old place.
Fer sure.
I gave you a vote UP just for generally being a funny dude. Sharp wit without too much injury :)
George Carlin's words are truer today, "They don't give a Fu@k about you."
http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/george-carlin-they-dont...
Krugman wins. Sheeple lose. Zero sum game, bitches.
Well said
they are trying to talk this market up as much as possible...they are all confused and scared
Anymore QE and the $dollar is instantly dead, and rightly so.
Monopoly money is able to keep it's purchasing power longer than the $dollar.
What's death to a zombie?
Besides, with DXY being relative to the Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), Great Britain- Pounds Sterling (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%), it's like a "least ugly" beauty contest (except for the smaller components, perhaps).
I am wearing my Dow 12,000 hat (that I bought in 1998, originally) as I hear this vague, verbal diarrhea.
But, now, I am thinking I should take the rally cap off, actually.
Hey, this Dow 12,000 hat is worn to shit!
Perhaps you can find a Gold 12,000 or a Dollar 0 hat.
...putting Lazlo's ruler on the 5 day chart confirms you better dust off the older DOW 10,000 hat....
Still not ready to BTFD. They could tease the market for at least another month.
If the FED does not come in, who is going to buy up all the new debt that the treasury needs to sell?
The FED has to come in, so equities will tank for a couple of weeks, a few puff pieces will be out about how the debt ceiling fight stalled the economy, and the FED will step in to goose it once again.
Easy call.
pods
The great knight is putting on his shiny armor and is getting ready to ride to our rescue on his white horse. Oh, Gandalf, you will be welcome !
Major short squeez underway !
Wow! Like Pavlovian Dogs. What on earth do these bots think more QE will do?
So on top of the $14 trillion debt we get another $2.4 trillion in new spending and then QE3? At what point does the country just... collapse?
If you are referring to the $2.4T debt raise, that money was already spent.
They had to ge that out there before Jack Off hole. There wasn't time to wait. Market was going to bust 1200 in no time.
Robots are clinging to ANY "rumor", they have to! This "market/casino" will go DOWN before Benjie can re start his printing preses! But re start them he will, just not right now! A bit more "selling" is in order, the "substantial" kind! We ain't closing green today nor tomorrow and for sure not Friday! We'll have them "12 days" of selling and more! Short Term, yes everything is "oversold: :))! Use every DIP to buy more Physical's!
They still have to "negotiate" about QE3, so it won't be for a couple of weeks/months before they launch it and by than the DOW will be at 8000.
Politely disagreeing. QE3 has been planned out since before the launch of QE2. The Fed is going by the textbook, chapter and verse.
gold doesn't believe the QE3 rumor. If it did we'd be across $1690 by now. This is orchestrated PPT in action.
.....my thought exactly....the PPT made a stick save or we'd be off 200 by now.....that's the good news....
.......and for the bad, they borrowed the funds from social security....
gold doesn't believe the QE3 rumor. If it did we'd be across $1690 by now. This is orchestrated PPT in action.
This is the Fed asking the market to step away from the ledge. The problem is, the patient is still suicidal.... We'll see how this works out for the 3rd time.
So QE3 = the full frontal lobotomy portion of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
I never thought of it that way.
Hmmm.
Is Obama Nurse Ratchet?
Who plays the role of Big Chief?
bIG cHIEF would be every taxpayer, i suspect..
Where else is all that new debt going to come from? China?
Indirectly, yes, as I'm sure the computer and printers used in creating this "money" were made in China.
Nothing like a rumor of QE3 to break the losing streak. A notably event that would undoubtedly be on the nightly news and scare the masses into more selling.
Must... break... losing... streak...
Yes, that's right - inflation is coming down.
Gas prices have fallen from $4.00/gallon in June to $3.85/gallon today.
All clear for QE3.
Then say hello to $4.50/gallon gas and $6.00/gallon heating oil just in time for the winter. And a complete deflationary collapse early in 2012. QE3 will buy the monetary maniacs another six months, at best.
bought our heating oil 3 weeks ago at $3.44/gal.
I want my, I want my Q-E-3
Correct me if i am wrong but isn't Donald Kohn retired?
So we are rallying on what again?
Oh yes and just so everyone is aware, NO NEW TAXES FOR THE RICH, but taxing the poor through successive QE's is GREAT.
It doesn't matter.
With bond yields so low, they have to keep the stock market Ponzi FULLY inflated or EVERY insurance company and pension fund will be belly up in less than a year.
They have no choice. This is the corner that 25 years of "easy money" has painted them into.
Buzz Aldrin also spoke to the WSJ and said that he may voice support for a QE3-like policy.
The markets lapped it up.
Maybe inflation in the US isn't that high and even comming down, but every time they do a QE3, everywhere else in the world inflation steps it up a notch.
I wonder which countries will revolt now because of rising food and energy costs....
Putin's right. The US is stealing from the world through their reserve currency.
If they don't watch it out a bit more, they'll might lose that status faster than they think.
Head over to the UN FAO, and you'll see food prices are stagnant (near record levels).
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/en/
Let's see how far up it'll go, when QE3 is kicked off.
QE3 straight up?...or on the Rocks?
Man, oh man, can you say $5,000 gold (as many predict)
$145 silver (as John Williams estimated)
$220 oil (as Nomura predicts)
and who knows what coal, copper, etc will do.
However, it looks like The Bernank now has no other choice but to support the economy and devalue the dollar so we can pay our massive debts with cheaper dollars. Too bad for Japan, China and the hundreds of pension funds and ins companies and banks that hold dollars.
But, hey! Nothing's perfect!
I'd rather have a Global Bailout 3.
And where is Berny? I WANT MY USUAL WAITOR!
<--QE3 is on!! Let's Party!
<--Crap, I chased it on the short side this morning and got burned
Looks like a carbon copy of the 1997 low with this morning's -1472 TICK reading, making the 9 consecutive day -1,100 TICK streak the longest I've seen.
Anyone who wants to see what the 1997 low looked like, here it is:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=spx&...
Robo ist der Mann!
Pull up the 2002 chart, too.
got any more laughable, shitty calls for us fucknut??
i hope you don't trade for a living.
C'mon, let's be nice.
i'm serious. what happened to spx 1400?? you must be puking up blood.
This morning around 10;30 there was panic and capitulation. You could feel it. TNA ohhh la la !!!
talk is cheap robomomo. put your $$$ where your cocksucker is, go long and disclose. otherwise stfu already.
I called it 1:45 QE rumor. How predictable are these clowns at this point.
Maybe a job creation stimulus rumor tomorrow?
Obama Will Embark on Mid-August Bus Tour to Talk Jobs
Obama plans on doing a bus tour and he will "talk about jobs."
That is going to do wonders.
I plan on talking about the cold fusion reactor I never built, that I plan on selling for 100 trillion fiatskis.
I mean..when do these bobbleheads cease to have attention paid to the same old script for going on 3 years now? Those jobs are gone and now being replaced by robots. Perhaps if the press did their job and stopped giving all these clueless Joe's a pass we might get to the core issues.
"Obama Will Embark on Mid-August Bus Tour to Talk Jobs"
....and having never had one himself, he better hope the guy feeding his teleprompter has.
I'd be willing to bet that Obama, if given a socket wrench, wouldn't know which end to use.
His talking about jobs is like having a dress designer write up gun controls...oh, that's right, we did that.
Melt up bitchez... Melt right on up.
There is no logic in this market. None. Glad I am a poor as fuck graduate.
...straight into the junkie's vein.
And heerrrreeeees Robo.....
Beldar Kohnhead:
When my people come to colonize this planet you will be on the protected rolls, and no harm will come to you.
We they really mean is they'll wait to see if they can keep the sheeple believing there's been a recovery before they take any action.
Sheesh......
How many points on the Russell 2000 does each trillion of QE buy?
Anyone?
I am laughing my ass off here because this is going to fail so badly for those who believe it is all going to be equity market supportive.
All these QE programs have seen to do is have gold higher, oil higher, unemployment rampant, idle S&P/Dow and enriched bankers. Seems like a great deal for the middle class right Ben?
If the Fed only knows printing, and the dollar is toast, the bears on Stocks are wrong because it can theoritically go to infinity as the dollar collapses. I suspect that bonds will be the equalizer and collapse as the Fed tries to get more aggressive. The collapse in bonds will provide support for the dollar
If QE3 translate into keeping rates low for a very long time then what will the effect be? Should only have an effect if anybody didn't already expect this - I doubt that is the case. If it means rebalancing the maturity profile of FED's current positions again I fail to see any major impact except adding duration risk to FED's 50+ times leveraged balance sheet. The consequences of buying more assets I think is very clear to all of us and it is painfully clear and even as debt will be monetized further won't the negative effects (hyper inflation, likely trade wars, limited demand for future UST issuance (unless FED plans to by everything forever), foreign dumping of dollar assets, ...) far outweigh this? What about some infrastructure projects aimed to kick start the economy or similar - what is wrong with actually trying to solve the real problem?
....and who pays for 'infrastructure projects'........we, the taxpayers do!
Problem is: with a medium-term fiscal policy of deleveraging, there is no money for any substantial infrastructure projects.
Solving the real problem isn't going to be done by monetizing more debt or by increasing federal spending. The real problem is too much debt dragging on the economy. The real problem is the inability of the economy to reset to sustainable levels because it keeps being propped up so it staggers along and can't recover. Building a few bridges and adding a few miles of highways might be good for a few contractors and laborers but it will add a greater burden to the rest of the taxpayers who have to pay for the job. Whether we extract it from the taxpayers in the form of taxes or we extract it in the form of lost purchasing power, the extraction will happen.
Yep, could be 'lip service easing'. All to prop up the market. Same ole schmidt, different day.
The market is not choosy: it will take any close above 1250 you give it.
sooooooo.... you're long here, right? disclose or stfu.
Debt ceiling raised and now QE infinity can continue to ruin this country. Thanks Obama.
Figures......today is HUGE in terms of t/a for the markets. It is a pivotal day, if not 'the' pivotal day and here comes the White House claiming no double dip and talks of QE3. I hope they fall on their fucking faces. The line is being defended right now. And please, save me the bs stories that t/a doesn't work as I see it play out time after time again.
Also for the naysayers are the corresponding events that take place at such important levels........they know damn well what's going on.
Brian Sack: Must ... not ... close ... red. Otherwise... I have ... to... feed ... the PDs ... more .... money.
Well whoever gave me the -1 can be happy that the line is intact, I covered and bought a few calls.
Anyone interested in a debate on Economics, there is a recording from the LSE from last week about Keynes V Hayek in 35 mins (7pm GMT or 3 EST) on the BBC Radio 4. Here's a link
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b012wxyg
Hayek rules bitchez!
08-03 14:17: Talk in the pit of possible QE3 in the markets
Pavlovian dogs (words of another ZHer) in the pit don't know whether to lick their balls or take a dump, but their tails are wagging like crazy.
Is this what the trading floor has really been reduced to? Mass retardation?
You know what I miss? Boehner and Obama daily press conferences.
Jesus...
Are you going to the birthday bash?
duplicate
Meanwhile, WH spokesperson Carney say they see no double dip recession. bwhaaaaaaaaa!
Emperor Nerobama fiddles while Rome burns.
White House: "there is no risk of double dip recession"
...what was it we are supposed to do when the president declares something wont happen?