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Holidays In The Greek Sun
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Holidays In The Sun...
Somehow the anger of the sex pistols, the sound of boots marching in the background, seem right to me today.
Greek Industrial Production dropped 11.3% in December. The unemployment rate jumped to 20.9%, up from 18.2%.
The charade of negotiations and a bailout can go. Some deal is likely to be announced. I’m not even sure it will be relevant by the March 20th bond maturity deadline.
The economy is getting worse, fast.
People are getting angry, fast.
The “force feeding of austerity” and plan after plan that is really just a focus on banks at the expense of the people is getting old.
While we wait for whatever plan is about to be announced, to some fanfare and some small pop in stock futures, the markets are mixed.
CDS on European financials is weak again. Senior Fins are 9 bps wider. Commerzbank senior and sub are both about 20 bps wider (on top of a big sell off yesterday).
So far Main and IG are tame and only 1 bp wider, but it was the move in financials that briefly spooked the market yesterday, so keep an eye on that. The weakness in financials seems surprising given all the talk (and hopes and dreams) of another massive LTRO.
New AT&T 10 year came at 105 and is trading right around that level. Not a big pop. It may be that the market has hit the point where the new issue concession shrunk too much, and too many people are playing for the quick flip rather than needing the bonds. The new issues have generally performed well, but we may have hit a saturation point.
In the meantime back to waiting for that imminent announcement out of Brussels or Athens.
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I used to be as lazy as a Greek, but then I took an arrow in the knee.
/sarc
I see you added the '/sarc' but it's too late, the Anglo MSM has overtaken your subconscious mind. All has been lost.
Indeed. Especially since my first language is NOT english.
All the worse for you since you have to translate an all.
GRRRR... Arrow to the knee
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSDfxde8fSg
Greek who disagrees :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaqfoHudOPI
Ok I give ya that. That is funny
Indeed it is.
I used to be a prosperous greek but then i took a Troika to the Knee
Ball of Confusion..that's what the world is today....hey, hey..
Its easier to manipulate with the people, when they are confused. That's the aim of the guys who are behind all of this. And let me tell you one thing, these guys are definitely not the ones that go to church on Sundays.
"In other news, Francisco Franco is STILL dead!"
Pete, if you still follow this daily and attach importance to what a bunch of panicky beurocrats say, then you're not going to make it for what is coming pal.
Panicky or just plain stupid ?
Hmm, it's not just about banks though is it? The Greeks are a lazy bunch, with a history of defaults. They always want something for nothing, then just don't pay the bill.
Personally, I'm glad to see defaults happening, at least it protects the currency (i.e. no QE).
"The Greeks are a lazy bunch, with a history of defaults"
Link?
Too lazy to use google?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2011/09/28/debt-defaults-have-greek...
ahh, the old "the greeks are too lazy chliche"
For centuries the greeks have thrived without needing to work hard. They are a hospitable, attractive type, who specialize in selling things to germans, english, dutch, tourists; they also specialise in seducing their women! In short, they make their country beautiful in order that others enjoy it. therein lies the wisdom of investing in greece, the geeeks, and the future of greece.
Let me know if you're interested in my funds multi condo, golf course, cruise liner resort. We're looking to have things up and running by 2013, where germans will be pouring in and spending in what will be a true triumph of european solidarity.
I don't care either way, but people should prove their assertions. I'm waiting for his link.
I was expecting a bad joke about feta cheese
Lazy is a term that is more appropriate for the government of the USA. It covers up its mistakes and avoids dealing with reality by simply printing and then also indulging in unheard of deficit spending.
QE is bad and without it the US default would have predated the Greek default. The day of reckoning for the USA is still ahead of you.
Kathimerini writes:
Vodafone sweeps cash out of Greece 'every evening' http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_09/02/2012_426920How can it be “force feeding of austerity” when the Greeks have implemented few or none of their promised reforms?
How much change do you think you could implement if your job disappeared or your salary was butchered and you had to pay more taxes, more in sales tax, more in property tax etc etc? Or need I remind you that the US government is hanging on simply because it can still run up trillion dollar deficits. Have you ever thought what would happen if deficit reductions plus all of the above measures were imposed on the USA?
It will be some day one way or another. Either by choice or market forces .And it's not going to be pretty.
Just because something is passed on a political level doesn't mean anyone cares or have the resources to enforce it.
That is one of the main problems in the US Gov right now, by the end of this year you can put money on massive cuts and departmental mergers plus the yanking of all pensions: Intelligence agencies, Army, Civil Servant core.
After a certain point people can choose to just stop committing effort. I'm sure you've worked with these types of people before. They have no clue what they are doing when times are good, when "something" happens in their job-sphere they just lock up and keep their heads down.
While they are down, they are no longer part of a team, they are working of their own initative without any realdirection but to the casual observer it appears work is getting done. In reality they stall and defer., that becomes their job because they think that IS their job at that point. So multiply that by however many people in the departement has and that's how big the problem is.
Unemployment is more like 60% in Greece. If I were Greek then I would get the hell out of there. This country will be in a world of pain very soon.
The revolution WILL BE TELEVISED.
Coz it's great for ratings and advertisers. Bullish, I'd venture to say.
Oh no it won't. Not part of the narrative.
No it won't. It will be blacked out just like every other piece of news. Instead you'll get little blips of "terrorist round ups". Then back to pertinent news like Simon Cowell's new boob job.
"Unemployment is more like 60% in Greece"...this statistic is probably right.....but they still get a check every month..that is the problem
So, reality pretty much bites?
Everything now rides on some announcement of a plan coming, and then the next. WW3 before long at all.
honestly, I'm sick of this brow beating of the troika. Greece has the most inefficient, liberal entitlement based society where money is handed out on a silver platter. They need to get their shit together and figure out where to cut things.
Greece will be looking to the USA as to how to impose austerity and make cuts as well as increase taxes. When do you think the USA will begin?
Wen 'When' Jiabao says so, mmmkay?
So let me get this straight....the greek employment situation is better than Spain?
Beware of Greeks bearing Gifs: http://chzgifs.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/funny-gifs-what-magic-is-this...
The “force feeding of austerity” and plan after plan that is really just a focus on banks at the expense of the people is getting old.
Oh, please. The root cause of the problem is that, for decades, there was no spending discipline. Now, suddenly, the bill has come due and there's no money left to pay it--so the party is finally over. Maybe if there had been a smidget of austerity and common sense over the last 30 or so years, things would be a little less dire now. Are the banks who lent the $$ to blame? Yes, but only to their shareholders for being absolute idiots. The real villians here are the Greek politicians and people. The fomer for never telling their people no and the latter for wanting to have their cake and eat it too. All parties are getting what they deserve.
BTW, we are no different here in the USA. Greece is a preview of what's eventually in store for us.
The European banks largely did not lend to Greece prior to its entry in the Euro because they knew how weak the economy was. Since Greece's entry they started to lend without due diligence and without taking security. Instead of taking their losses on the chin, the French and German banks went crying to their governments who have now engineered a complete takeover and eventual rape of both Greeks and their resources.
While some of it is deserved, the rest is greed driven over kill by the Troika.
History has shown that striking a man when he is down only emboldens him and his children. As Celente says, "when you have lost everything, you lose it."
With regard to the Pistols reference, I wonder how long 'twill be before this one comes to pass ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XURwbWEaEG8
Sucks to be Greek.