Home Prices Miss Large On 9th Consecutive Downward Revision

Tyler Durden's picture


It will come as no surprise to many that the warm-weather-induced ebullience and renaissance in the US housing market is perhaps floundering as all that demand was dragged forward. Today's notable miss in the FHFA Home Price Index (at unch vs an expectation of +0.3%) is ugly but the huge downward revision from +0.7% to merely +0.1% in the previous month is now the ninth consecutive notable downward revision.Add to that the fact that FreddieMac just reported mortgage rate cracking over 4% (from 3.92% to 4.08%) and the ugly data on MBA applications and...well at least we're decoupling.

Chart: Blooomberg

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Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:17 | 2280275 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Paging Bob Brusca

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:22 | 2280294 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

+16 Trillion


BTW- his 2008 review of housing is a classic!! I'm glad Tyler brought him on for entertainment!!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:32 | 2280336 TheFourthStooge-ing
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Moe Veissi, NAR President: "I feel like I could conquer the world! It's like I'm walking on sunshine!"



Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:58 | 2281069 piceridu
piceridu's picture

Is he the new Leo?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:20 | 2280281 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Looks like a dead body bouncing along the bottom of the East River, and along with price drop we've got rising rates OH HOORAY!. Stocks seem to be mildly turned on by it though sporting a bit of a chubby....I guess they believe it means another QE rumor will come now.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:23 | 2280303 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Looks like "reflating" the housing market has Benji and the gang all outta breath. Liquidity still a problem for the little people who buy houses. God help us, maybe this isn't a bad thing. If people were actually getting loans, the inevitable upswing in interest rates will destroy them in an ARM-ageddon of new foreclosures. Deflation is the inevitable result of money-printing that disappears into the black holes of insolvent banks, never to be seen again.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:16 | 2280456 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Inflation or deflation doesn't really matter... both create the loss of confidence and ultimately the destruction of the currency.  And we won't feel the effects of inflation vs. deflation uniformly. Money printing will create inflation in the things we need, but the general economic malaise will create deflation in the things we own.  "Liquidity" isn't the problem for the little people... it's life in general that's the problem.

Your statement "Deflation is the inevitable result of money-printing" doesn't really seem to hold up to the scrutiny of a trip to the grocery store or filling up the gas tank.  And I get that the rest of your quote has the money printing falling into black holes... so in theory, money printing might not create inflation, but again... current evidence seems to contradict.

Housing won't recover until after we usher in a new economic system... and not knowing what that is, it's difficult to say.  But I will say confidently, there will be no housing recovery anytime soon.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:58 | 2280587 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

I seriously considered a mortgage about 6 months ago and the below/above was my main reason for not doing it. I am now waiting till they drop far enough I can buy one in cash :)

"maybe this isn't a bad thing. If people were actually getting loans, the inevitable upswing in interest rates will destroy them in an ARM-ageddon of new foreclosures."


Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:04 | 2280605 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Now is a fine time to buy a house... somewhere remote, farmable, on a hill, with access to water.  :-)

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:36 | 2280689 ken4aub
ken4aub's picture

Perhaps a nice 3bdr/2ba/1bunker....maybe nice to have a Mother-InLaw bunker also....lol

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:00 | 2280801 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

I am having trouble getting financeing for one of these,


Paris, Missouri

Hardened underground communications vault on 13 acres. Built in the 1960's as a nuclear war-proof communications center, 8,200 sq. ft. usable floor space.  Mother in-law interrogation on-site facility near by. Good armed neighbors,  Near Mark Twain recreational lake. Excellent for underground home or secure gold and silver storage facility.  Existing mounts for 50 cal. Stainless steel body storage, granite counter top/map tables. re-education camps near by, don't get priced out, properties selling fast.

Price: $295,000

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 17:11 | 2281839 smiler03
smiler03's picture

If you do get financing then you should stop paying the mortgage immediately and stick this big sign outside:

"Try Repossessing This Bitchez!"

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:19 | 2280285 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

But the NAR told us the housing market is on fire.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:21 | 2280292 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe NAR meant the roof of the housing market is on fire.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:23 | 2280300 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

No... that fire is the Jewish lightnin' 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:24 | 2280298 espirit
espirit's picture

Yes, just last night the MSM said that is the most significant indicator of the great recovery.

Awaken Sheeple.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:33 | 2280337 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

There has never been a better time to buy a home.

L. Yun


Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:23 | 2280898 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

There has never been a bad time to say that there has never been a better time to buy a home.

(L. Yun's advice to realtors)

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:05 | 2280607 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Nothing matters but the PROPAGANDA until election day. The Sheeple see the headline "HOUSING PRICES UP, RECOVERY IN FULL SWING!". That imprints on the mind.

Very few will ever see, or know, that it was revised downward to flat. They will go through the day thinking, "The Economy must be improving SOMEWHERE, even if I can't see it here!!"

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:20 | 2280287 oogs66
oogs66's picture

but but but but but but....

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:25 | 2280309 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

...  is the sound of the housing market bumping along the bottom of the East River.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:23 | 2280304 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

The revisions keep flowing in like water.

Rosenberg: This is the weakest recovery ever.

Ya think?

Citi economist: Worst still to come for Europe.

Really now?

We are living in an Alice in Wonderland world economy. Where the rabbit hole ends who knows, but come fall it ain't going to be pretty.

PRINT! That will save us all......right?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:26 | 2280318 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Right. I'm printing my favorite Denise Milani and Coco Austin pictures right now.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:43 | 2280543 Mr Drysdale
Mr Drysdale's picture

I don't even know what that means....

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:29 | 2280322 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

One man's "weak recovery" is another's "depression". I guess it all depends on the size of one's bonus. I have a big one right now, looking at my newly printed Denise Milani pictures.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:54 | 2280383 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

You have the pictures? I have her.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:56 | 2281060 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

And Denise sez:

Denise Milani thinks she knows exactly why men find her irresistible. “I think men find me attractive because of my innate confidence,” she says.

She certainly has two things to be confident about.

Whoever writes this stuff for her to read off the teleprompter must also be the CNBC writer...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:29 | 2280326 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I'm trying to think of the word that applies to this economic statistic, as viewed by the equity markets.

What is the word for which I am searching?

Oh - I've got it!


Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:33 | 2280338 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Mi Casa, Su-ck Casa...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:33 | 2280339 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Looking forward to the next Case Shiller and Reggie's comments on it.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:37 | 2280343 kito
kito's picture

people arent buying homes because they are spending all of their money on rugers..........

seems ruger has suspended new orders as they cannot keep up with demand.......



Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:06 | 2280824 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Does Soros Own All US Gun
& Ammo Manufacturers?



There has been an e-mail circulating that claims that Cerberus Capital Management and the Freedom Group control most of the firearms and ammunition industry and that George Soros owns these investment firms. The rumor of Soros involvement is false, according to the NRA:
The National Rifle Association stated: "This rumor is completely false and baseless." The NRA has a long-standing relationship with both Cerberus and Freedom Group, noting: "The owners and investors involved are strong supporters of the Second Amendment and are avid hunters and shooters." Further, Soros has never been a part of either group. Most importantly:
This unsubstantiated rumor has caused a great deal of unnecessary concern for gun owners. NRA-ILA urges our members to take great care before repeating baseless rumors found on the Internet."
Who Controls Cerberus?
From Wikipedia: Cerberus Capital Management, L.P. is one of the largest private equity investment firms in the United States. The firm is based in New York City, and run by 51-year-old financier Steve Feinberg. Former U.S. Vice President Dan Quayle has been a prominent Cerberus spokesperson and runs one of its international units.
Founded in 1992, Cerberus is named for the mythological three-headed dog that guarded the gates of Hades. Feinberg has stated to his employees that while the Cerberus name seemed like a good idea at the time, he later regretted naming the company after the mythological dog.
The company has been a very active acquirer of businesses over the past several years and now has sizable investments in automotive, sportswear, paper products, military services, real estate, energy, retail, glassmaking, transportation, and building products. In 2006, its holdings amounted to $24 billion.
On October 19, 2006, John W. Snow, President George W. Bush's second Treasury Secretary, was named chairman of Cerberus.
J. Ezra Merkin is a partner in Cerberus. Merkin invested his funds into Cerberus and its portfolio companies. His Gabriel fund invested $79 million in Chrysler, $66 million in GMAC and $67 million in Cerberus partnerships, according to year-end statements. The Gabriel Fund was a feeder fund for Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerberus_Capital_Management
Cerberus appears to be a very connected outfit, but there is no mention of Soros.
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal from 2009, Cerberus received $4 BILLION IN BAILOUTS funded by taxpayers for their company, Chrysler. The Freedom Group is a subsidiary of Cerberus.
Here is a list of holdings by the Freedom Group:
Remington Arms
Bushmaster Firearms International
DPMS Panther Arms
H & R Firearms
Dakota Arms
LC Smith
AAC ­ Advanced Armament Corporation
Barnes Bullets
In closing, it appears that Cerberus does hold a large market share of the ammunition industry and Cerberus has enjoyed enormous taxpayer funded bailouts ($4 billion). Cerberus has some political and financial heavy-hitters on its board and has made some TERRIBLE investments.
In a free market capitalist system, even if a corporation bought up all the gun and ammunition manufacturers and made ammo cost prohibitive or stopped selling it, new companies would arise to fill the demand. But our system is one of crony capitalism that favors corporations. Therefore, it may be wise to stock up on firearms supplies.
Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:37 | 2280344 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wasnt the WHOLE point of all this to revive the housing bubble? I mean, market? 

Well Im sure since a bad print is out, housing is now 'irrelevant' to the Wall St media.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:08 | 2280428 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The FHFA Home Price Index gets revised downward. The BLS unemployment claims get revised upward. On average, everything is fine! Bullish!

Today it was reported that existing home sales prices in Broward County, FL (think Ft. Lauderdale) rose 6% YOY. That was supposedly good, but ignored the true rate of inflation. Meanwhile, new condos near the ocean are advertised for only $700K, down 50% from the advertised prices less than six months ago. It's not just my bank account that doesn't add up.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:21 | 2280477 Grug
Grug's picture

But Barrons said that housing has hit bottom already

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:50 | 2280557 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Interesting right.

Barrons, another of Murdoch's publications touting the company rhetoric.
I wonder sometimes why there is a difference between reports in Barrons, WSJ and MW on the same or similar data. Do you think it is designed as such? Has to be in my mind. IMO, MW tends to be more optomistic and sort of the 'cheerleading' squad of Newscorp, at least the online version.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:32 | 2280678 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Does three bottoms make one UP?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:23 | 2280483 centerline
centerline's picture

The general assumption is that TPTB are losing the battle against all of this.

Just for shits and giggles, what if the plan is working perfectly so far? What does THAT imply about the plan?

Something to chew on...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:37 | 2280524 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Epic Fed Fail.  Part deux..

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:48 | 2280553 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

House price bottom - 2025.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:30 | 2280674 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

When GOLD hits US$20,000.00 an ounce.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:18 | 2280635 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Is anybody around here still paying a mortgage?

I gave that up in July 2009. Still here.

Last great godsend was BofA paying all of my back and current property taxes, which, here in NY, is nothing to sneeze at. It was like hitting the exacta: free house, tax-free. Pretty sweet.

I paid about $1500 in property taxes before BofA swooped in and paid the remaining $9800, covering 2010, 2011 and 2012.

I will race them to the County Treasury to pay the next tax bill in September, unless, of course, I've left for Uruguay by then.

Thank you, BofA. You are now my favorite bank.

Buuuuuut, I am not paying that fraudulent Countrywide mortgage you think you are holding, and I'm not letting any of my money anywhere near any of your bank branches.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:38 | 2280694 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Some Indian mathmatician showed BoA a chart showing them the winner at the end.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 12:47 | 2280725 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Help me understand. Why the race to pay the county treasury?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:42 | 2280999 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Even been late on a tax payment? 18% interest adds up really fast. And they compound it. I figure if BofA really thinks they own the house (who knows, it's been in FC for 2 years with no motions made on their part), I will trump their claim by paying the taxes. I live here, figure no rent, no mortgage and no taxes is a little too much to ask. Besides, if they show up in court and make the case that they've been paying the taxes, I can say, no, no. I paid the current taxes and was paying on the back taxes before BofA arrived, two years late, BTW.

Then again, What the He--, property values may be so much lower by September - and falling - I might just save my dough and buy somewhere else, like where the weather is better and taxes aren't so ridiculous. To give you an idea, the house is appraised at $82K. Taxes are $2900. A little steep, I say, and most of it is for the dweebs in school, about whom I could care less.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 23:25 | 2282541 prodigious_idea
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Taxes are such a small fraction of the value that the bank will pay them to prevent penalties/liens.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:00 | 2280805 Toxicosis
Toxicosis's picture

No recovery ever in housing without a recovery in non-debt based disposable income.  This doesn't happen unless good to great paying jobs for most people come back, we manufacture mostly everything at home again, and hope to all hell we have cheap and available energy substitutes.  Any of these fail to happen and the only way a housing market anywhere comes back is when we bulldoze all homes in foreclosure, abandoned or bank owned.  I'm a Canadian, a renter, and just waiting for the housing scenario to unfold here just like in the good ol' USofA.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:41 | 2280995 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I read the housing bubble blog for years. I warned people not to buy housing for the last 5 years. Since then prices have doubled. Do you know how stupid I look? I rent but I park in commercial parking and the cost has doubled in 5 years as well. Whatever doesn't have rent controls has doubled.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 14:58 | 2281322 Toxicosis
Toxicosis's picture

So what if home prices doubled, that money wouldn't be yours anyway.   A house is meant to live in not make money from.  When home prices collapse in Canada, and they will, thank your lucky stars you didn't get stuck not being able to sell the house.  Renting is safer imho especially right now.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:23 | 2280905 ClevelandJanelle6
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