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Homebuilder Confidence Rises To 5 Year High As Actual Sales Remain Near All Time Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


America may not sell many new homes (read - sales are near or at all time lows), but that does not prevent homebuilders from having a dream, or in this case confidence that soon, soon, SOON, things will finally improve. Sure enough, in May the NAHB homebuilder confidence soared to 29, from 24, on expectations of a 26 print. Of course, these numbers are completely meaningless, and only serve to get the algos ramping momentum in an upward direction. In the meantime, the reality of actual sales, can be seen on the chart below.


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Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:09 | 2426751 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Renters FTW

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:26 | 2426856 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Student housing and bigger hospitals are all I see going up here.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:23 | 2427135 redpill
redpill's picture

"In the meantime, the reality of actual sales, can be seen on the chart below."

I don't disagree with the thesis, but those are NOT actual sales.  They are the results of an X12-ARIMA seasonally adjusted annualized monthly rate based upon an extremely thin survey of 1 in 50 permits in 900 of the 19,000 permit issuing placed across the country.  It has very little to do with actual sales. 

What are the real sales?  About 26,000 new home transactions closed in March.  And no, that isn't very good since March typically is supposed to be one of the strongest months of the year in activity.  But it is above the March 2011 level of about 21,000.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 12:58 | 2427819 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

" but those are NOT actual sales"

Thanks for the clarification on that.  It is good to see informed posters back here at ZH.  Now, not that I doubt you, but could you post the source of your information above?  I'd bet that there is a lot more in there that I (as well as others) should be reading!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:35 | 2426900 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Homebuilders are confident that they will make a killing selling company stock!!

Insiders selling stock like there is no tomorrow and yet stock RISES!!! LMAO!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:48 | 2426968 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fed buying it all!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:58 | 2427033 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

mmm...wondering if the builders are depending on those wealthy foreigners to buy the boxes?


"Filings show 45% of China companies see slowdown"

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:23 | 2427144 redpill
redpill's picture

The Miami market has actually seen quite a bit of improvement over the last year largely due to investment purchases of homes by South Americans, mostly from Brazil.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:38 | 2427234 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Hey great info, thanks!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:14 | 2427097 smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

Makes sense to me.  Just like the unemployment figure, homebuilder confidence is only calculated by homebuilders that are still in business.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2426755 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

only a matter of time before i can sell my hut for a cool 500k fiat dollars.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:20 | 2426836 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

too bad you bought it for 1,500k fiat dollars.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:36 | 2427228 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

 ...and bread will be 200 fiat dollars

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2426757 surf0766
surf0766's picture

They are optimistic leaders. Clueless optimistic leaders. They know The Secret

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:12 | 2426776 Jason T
Jason T's picture

"'s not a lie if you believe it."  

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2426760 Badabing
Badabing's picture

five year high on crack

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:25 | 2426850 gjp
gjp's picture

Incredible.  Yet another day of reckoning with reality in Europe while US markets dance with fairies in la-la land.  Groupon, Face Book, and Amazon lead the way.  American ingenuity in on-line shopping and narcissism will save the world!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:28 | 2426876 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


five year high on crack

Over the years, I've had the misfortune of meeting a few crackheads and coke addicts. As a whole, they were lying, thieving, scheming, manipulative assholes who would pimp out their own mother for another fix. These are the characteristics they share with NAHB members and their counterparts in realty and mortgage lending.

However, having said that, I've never seen a crackhead with such a distorted, warped, and completely unreal perception of reality as that indicated by the NAHB optimism indicated above. I don't know what these people are messed up on, but it's something far more insidious and damaging than crack, and it's reached epidemic proportions on Wall Street and inside the I-495 beltway.

In contrast, here we are in freakin' 2012, and for some reason weed is still illegal.


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:49 | 2427304 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

I've always found real-estators in a somewhat different world than the rest of us. I guess hopium is stronger than both weed AND brandy...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2427308 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:10 | 2426761 realtick
realtick's picture

No group of businessmen is more delusional than real estate developers and builders.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:21 | 2426834 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

"The sun will come out, tomorrow! Tomorrow! Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun!"


FOR SALE signs have been haning on some homes for so long that they have literally fallen off...



Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:49 | 2426985 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture folks and my brother and his wife are all real estate agents and their excited conversations over how its all swinging up and any moment there will be another housing boom are hillarious!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:55 | 2426996 redpill
redpill's picture

Five years ago maybe, not so much now.  Homebuilders didn't get a bailout, if they've survived this long (and many have not), they've had to get back to reality.  They may have some false hopes here, but it's like a battered wife believing that if she loves her husband enough he'll stop hitting her.  Delusional yes, but somehow surviving.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:12 | 2426764 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I think NAR is including dog house constructions into their figures...I just built a dog house last week.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:22 | 2426844 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The NAR extrapolates home sales from the number of lawn chairs and BBQ grills sold at Home Depot

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:26 | 2426862 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

You'll be able to rent that when the dog dies.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:56 | 2427023 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Better buy a dog house now, before your dog is priced out forever. Dog houses never go down.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 12:30 | 2427648 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

"Dog houses never go down."


I was afraid of that. Maybe the ground hog out back will lease me part of his hole in coming years.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:58 | 2427024 redpill
redpill's picture

This isn't NAR data, it's from NAHB, which is still a biased organization, but tends not to be quite as egregious.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:18 | 2427106 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Every prison cell that is built is now counted as a single home that is where the "new" homes are been built, one of the fastest growing industries in Amerika.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2426768 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

All while interest rates are below the inflation rate. Imagine when interest rates go higher...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2426774 krmont22
krmont22's picture

Why would anyone buy new with such a high foreclosure inventory?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:31 | 2426886 toady
toady's picture

They are actually running ads here in AZ saying "why buy a rundown foreclosure when you can buy brand new for only 20-30k more"?

While the ad is running a guy in a "house" costume with "foreclousure" written on it stumbles threw a home depot crying.

Meanwhile, two of the 5 fourclosures in my 20 home development have been in the "shadow inventory" since 08/09, and a couple have gone in and out of foreclosure multiple times, and one was rented for a while and totally destroyed (doors broken in, including the garage door torn off, copper torn out, carpet torn out, drywall kicked in.

So my neighborhood is roughly 25% foreclosures, and a quick drive around town shows everywhere id the same, or worse, nut they keep building!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:41 | 2426939 walküre
walküre's picture

Dude, time to put your shack on the market. Remember, the first offer is always the best!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:13 | 2426775 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Visions of Drhousingbubbles article above.  Manipulate or delete all negative data.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:13 | 2426783 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I think they are also using the trendy 350 sq. ft. portable house as permits, starts, and finals.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:14 | 2426778 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Send in the (home building) clowns.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:14 | 2426780 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everybody is in denial. People's expectations have been lowered to the point where any economic activity points to a positive future.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:36 | 2426914 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Manufactured good news isn't getting the lift that it used to. I'm guessing the crowd is starting to ignore the agitprop data and the algos are having difficulty with their jobs. There have been several prints recently that would have produced quite a rip once upon a time. Now it's hard to fight the people trying to get out the narrow exit doors. Maybe people aren't as dumb as I thought, of course I should reserve judgement on that.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:55 | 2427017 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So pathetic that now if GDP comes in above negative, thats rolicking good news!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:16 | 2427102 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just double down (again) on the morphine. What doesn't kill you will just make you higher.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:15 | 2426787 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

They've been saying things will improve in Japan for 20 yrs.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2426789 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

On a positive note the spike up on the number was as short lived as I've seen in awhile, someone's learning something out there.

What the NAHB is positive about is that someone is going to try to rescue the housing market with free money in an election year.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2426791 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

When all objective measurements fail....why not measure "hope"....which is all you have when you THINK you're at the bottom.    think again...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2426798 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Its all about the "potential" that every peice of crap house out there has. I'm sure these professionals have been going to countless seminars, being told how it is all going to turn around any moment. Giving each other optimism awards!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:17 | 2426806 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

See: Obama DELIVERS!

He promised hope, and you got it!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:26 | 2426858 malikai
malikai's picture

Yea, right in the ass.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:57 | 2427025 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dont say that too loud around Obama he'd get all excited Oooooo!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:10 | 2427081 malikai
malikai's picture

Oh yea I forgot. He's gay now. I hope he didn't hear me..

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:29 | 2426872 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:18 | 2426810 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I'm confident a lot home builders will be bankrupt soon...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:21 | 2426811 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't see any relief in that sector until wages and employment go up.  All we did was print a bunch of money and give it to bankers.  Everyone else got hung out to dry.  They should have done a mandatory 1% to 0% refi immediately.  Instead, people got to effectively buy their houses twice.  Once through the existing mortgage.  And a second time through the inflation caused by printing the money to give to the banks.  The governmnet ignored the true effect of their bailouts and how badly they burdened people because they were unbalanced.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:29 | 2426870 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

It's funny how the college graduate debt never seems to find a place here.

The natural future demand is overloaded with eye popping college debt and obviously can't afford homes,

but somehow that is rarely mentioned in these contexts it's very odd.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:41 | 2426936 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Yea that's all we did.

Only in bizarro world is letting folks cash out for the net present of their lives at historically low interest  really a scheme by the wealthy to take advantage of the poor afterall, I read it 9,563,651 times on

People who came into the game with nothing and left with something are not losers of the game.

So that pretty much eliminates any sub prime borrower from ever being a victim,

they came into the game with no money or credit and left with refi money or lived in a home they would never have otherwise seen.  If they have nothing to lose, they can't by definition be losers and a lot more folks than sub prime fit.

But I get it, accesss to money is a birthright and making it available to the masses at lint like interest really wasn't a luxury/

Just go back to 30yrs ago when only those who didn't need to borrow money could. Cause afterall this was a scheme by the rich to take advantage of the poor and the previous generations paying 12% on a mortgage and 15% on a car and 20% on a credit card was a far better situation.



Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:52 | 2426990 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Nonsense.  Pure and utter denial of reality.

The banks made stupid decisions.  Many were actively seeking to make bad loans so they could bet against them several times over.  Then we gave the banks money to bail them out without offering an even handed solution.

How many subprime borrowers were offered no interest loans like the banks were?

What you fail to understand is that bailing out the banks without adding the public into the equation damaged the economy even further.  You seem to think it is the banks birthright to bailouts even as you blindly attemt to deny it.  Way to go.  You get 10 out of 10 in the deluded nonsense spewing category.  Try logic.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:08 | 2427034 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

People with nothing to lose by definition cannot be losers.

Anyone in the country that could make an X,

could borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars at historically low interest.

If that is a scheme by the rich to take advantage of the poor, give them money they have no shot of repaying at nothing interest rates-we need more schemes like this.

Those who did, who had little or no assets and poor credit lost nothing.

They cannot by definition be losers, they like most of the country HAD NOTHING TO LOSE.

The refi guy who cashed out for $200K on an $80K home with no assets and no credit,

sure as shit is not a loser. Likeswise the banker/mortgage broker/appraiser and everyone else working for pennies on the dollar did not earn the most on that transaction in a million years.  They made cornmeal compared to the $120K the borrower would never have seen in two lifetimes otherwise.

 Go bang your head against the wall another 10,000times and come back with more total bullshit.

Really great material, from those who have lived through nothing but prosperous economic times until recently and feel access to money is a birthrigth and should be free.

Anyone else who actually lived when only those who didn't need to borrow money could,

and those who sought venture capital paid out through their eye teeth know the deal.

Could not have possibly asked for more economic freedom in this country than what was seen from 2000-2006 and the fact that it was squandered on plasma TVS and escalades instead of improving one's lot in life would say it all , if delusional imbeciles weren't around desperately mischaracterizing what took place.

fanatics are fanatics for a reason and it doesn't involve accurately assessing reality.


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:11 | 2427082 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Only the banks got 0% and free bailouts.  You keep pretending otherwise.  When the banks housing assets were purchased by the Fed and Treasury, the equation should have been balanced with 0% loans to homeowners becasue the pubic was effectively buying those assets. 

The Fed and Treasury fucked up and amplified the problem for the public sector instead of even handedly solving the problem.  Now the public is buying those homes twice instead of once.

To even deny what I am saying just shows how completely ignorant you are of basic historical facts. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:27 | 2427129 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Exactly, same public who largely had nothing to lose in the first place and never actually paid for the home in the first place is now magically buying the home twice even though they are so broke they couldn't pay for it the first time.

The banks made all the money, that is where it went. That's why they are all broke. No it went to their bonuses, yea that's it! Have $12trillion in residential mortgage debt written over that time period, how much were the bonuses? Oh maybe a 1billion in total? 10billion tops-yea that's where all the money went.  It didn't go towards discretionary spending at all, the boom in plasmas and escalades was from banker bonuses.

Right so the banks should have just made interest free loans instead of lint like interest loans,

that would have changed everything!

People with nothing to lose can't be losers and your idiomatic parrot like regurgitation of the usual nonsense is not changing that.

Until that is addressed in any way, shape or form your output is totally useless.


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:30 | 2427179 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Your mom's output is totally useless.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:26 | 2427146 Cortez the Killer
Cortez the Killer's picture

Stop being an apologist for deadbeat borrowers by blaming the banks.

X is 100% right; people who bought a house with nothing down, then took out HELOCs can never be victims.  They net benefited.

Your point about bankers is spot on, but acknowledge that the vast majority of "fraudclosure victims" are anything but.  They are for the most part undeserving, greedy, clueless motherfuckers who have been bobbing along like rubber duckies on the the 30 year credit bubble sea for way too long.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:51 | 2427302 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

It is not even the blame game that is irritating as obviously the banks deserve blame.

The irritating part is the denial of what an unbelievable luxury it happened to be to have the ability to borrow so much money  so cheaply.

When I started out, I had to pay 1%/mo and half the net to finance my inventory,

while during that time period, me of today would have paid 1/2%/mo for same money.

The opportunity provided to the avg guy was staggering, the fact that it was abused and often times used for useless spending is saddening but surely some people out there took advantage of that golden opportunity and dramatically improved their lot in life.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:21 | 2427130 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Debt is the new freedom. War is peace, ignorance is strength, TSA keeping you safe .

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:17 | 2426813 el_brio
el_brio's picture

I would assume that this is mostly based on rental construction expectations.  As more and more investors snap up the cheap foreclosures and turn them into rental units I would guess that rent prices will start to leak downward eventually.  Too much supply out there any way you look at it I think.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:22 | 2426839 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

No this is home builder execs painting a rosy picture to hold up their share value. No real data involved.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:18 | 2426814 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture


Try applying that clever twist regarding CHK to US homes.

Not seeing prices converging to infinity anytime soon.

Yet there was hardly a difference. Government agencies enabled the home builders to push out supply when there was already a dramatic oversupply, no major homebuilder went to $0.

result home prices artficially declined further than they would have otherwise-no different than CHK.

yet there is no sign of prices going to infinity anytime soon.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:22 | 2426817 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

How did the tech bubble work out for ya?  Still down 70% 10 yrs on.  Bubbles don't come back. The  Re mania was probably 100 x larger as well.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:21 | 2426842 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Wait until the dollar bubble breaks.  Priced in gold, it dwarfs both tulips and the south seas bubbles.  The best part is that the people in it continue to insist it doesn't exist. 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:30 | 2426843 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Cannot wait for that dollar bubble to burst!  Looking forward to the 1,275th death of the USD since 1973.

How did the tulip bubble work out for ya?  How about that gold/silver bubble from 30yrs ago? Prices just recently surpass the highs from then or just another bubble that never comes back?

 Either US home prices are going to rebound eventually or homes will be deconstructed for their raw materials, there are no other outcomes.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:38 | 2426931 toady
toady's picture

Copper thieves are running wild here in AZ.

Let the deconstruction begin!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:03 | 2427029 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

In 1981 gold went to the correct price to back the dollar 100%, and then by 40%, which was the historical ratio in a functional economy.  It never bubbled.  It never crashed.  It went to the correct prices for the environments.  That is why I can tell you this current dollar bubble will once again rupture as gold moves to the correct price.  If you don't have the cash flow to back your debt or pay interest, you need an asset.  That is gold's role.  It will make the US solvent once again, just like it did in the 80's.  Or do you actually believe that moron Volcker did anything but cause a recession by raising rates?  Because I can tell you right now, high rates are doing nothing for Greeces debt and have never done anything good for anyone's debt. 

Or perhaps you think we should print our way into oblivion instead of letting gold rise to balance out the debt again, like we did in the 80's?  I am sure that will do wonders for your theory that the dollar is not in a bubble.  Gold has a role.  If you don't understand that role, you won't understand why gold will continue to go straight up in value until the system is re-capitalized with a real financial asset.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:17 | 2427109 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

No gold bubble,

rose several hundred percent in two years or less and then dropped back under that price two years later.

Just normal asset pricing!

No bubble there.

Anytime want to join the rest of the human race on planet earth give me a heads up.

Until then enjoy the deluded ignorant oblivion.  

Fanatics are fanatics for a reason and it usually involves defect not drugs.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:22 | 2426818 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Aren't these numbers from the same group of scam artists who recently had to revise their numbers from the past 3 or 4 years????

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:35 | 2426913 redpill
redpill's picture

No, that was the National Association of Realtors, who were base lining their data on resale transactions in 1999-2000 as reported in the 2000 Census. Apparently it took them 10 yrs to realize the housing market has changed just a wee bit since then.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:43 | 2426955 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Oh sorry, I mixed up my sources on that one.  There are so many completely corrupt organizations put out unreliable and completely useless data that sometimes I forget which was which.  I'll pay closer attention to what the proganda ministry of CNBC says next time ;)

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:28 | 2427164 redpill
redpill's picture

Well, you sort of expect industry associations to be biased.  I don't approve of it, but I find it more forgivable than the crap the BLS does.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:46 | 2427287 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

I don't begrudge industry sources from being optimistic.  I DO hold our lame stream media accountable for presenting this information as if it is a) a useful metric (its not), and b) unbiased (its not). 

As far as your second statement, nothing that comes from the government statistic wise can be trusted any longer.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:19 | 2426820 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Pretty much every homebuilder  I know munches on Zoloft (or its equivalent) like M&Ms, followed by a handfull of Ambien as a nightcap.  All of which good for being cheery, but not much else.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:19 | 2426829 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

I will never get it...Builder confidence...It is not like there is 5.5 million homes in some stage of default or 2 million+ homes are in the shadow inventory..they ignore reality...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:19 | 2426830 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Homes, homes!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:27 | 2426861 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Rock Star was on sale when the survey was taken.  Gluco-taurine is commercialized hopium.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:27 | 2426864 Tom.the.Bomb
Tom.the.Bomb's picture

I read… lots of ZH content.  I am in the (so-called) homebuilder business (nationally).  And let me tell you something folks… ain’t nothing, and I mean nothing going on here.  Only a fools game!  No profit, no volume, only suckers playing the game of falling deeper in a hole, and pretending (confident) it will get better.  Gents in my business have been living in their homes without paying a mortgage for three years.  Owe $480, worth $280… screw it, they say, when the bank sends the sheriff, I’ll consider renting elsewhere.  Just trying to help all ZH contributors see the real picture out there (here). And do accordingly.  The only words I can think of that applies are “moratorium” or (continued) “ponzi”.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:46 | 2426963 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Totally Agree in my area.

Construction businesses are buried in ashes and the Phoenix is completely covered. Those debt-free businesses have survived, have cut cost to the bone and are waiting. People have hope based on demographically driven demand, but most people forget Disposable Income is a variable in the demand function. The Phoenix may continue to rest in the ashes for decades like Japan if the Fed continues its path! 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:27 | 2426871 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture
"Ventura County home prices sink to nearly 9-year low" Read more:

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:27 | 2426873 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Most builders keep building until the bank says no mas, then they declare bankruptcy. Seeing more lots for sale, that doesn't happen in a strong housing market.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:28 | 2426879 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Why actually build homes when you can simply create statistics showing the Construction Industry is booming?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:31 | 2426894 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

What I love about all these confidence surveys is how the MSM starts gushing around at the mere sight of a good one - not thinking for one minute the distance between 'confidence' and 'reality' (which I call the reason gap) - is a sign of things about to get much, much worse - not better as reality is close to biting.


So it doesn't matter that banks are issuing no credit, that people have less disposable income, that housing stock is over supplied, that many people are living - rent free - in bank reposessed properties....etc.... long as people feel they want to buy - then that's OK.


Utter madness

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:31 | 2426895 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Sounds great.  Guess that means the recession is over.  Europe is fixed.  And everyone has a job.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:34 | 2426912 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

It's alos interesting to note some of the comments from the building trade - builders are building in the expectation that things will turn around - because they always have done in the past - within 2-3 years.


Sadly no builder alive today lived through the great depression as a builder - so they have NO reference point.


In a depression, it's not the depth of fall that kills you - that's just excitement for the MSM - it's the 10 years of no growth which murders businesses.


.....and these housebuilders all around the world are finding that "this time it was different"

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:35 | 2426917 jomama
Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:39 | 2426924 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

No real news. Still far below 50  and the equity markets said "Meh."

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:37 | 2426926 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

I believe they were passing out hopium blunts during this survey...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:39 | 2426940 prains
prains's picture

Who's building these homes, I thought the mexicans went home?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:05 | 2427053 toady
toady's picture

My cousin the roofer lost both of his Mexican crews and is totally bummed out about it. His son and daughter both dropped out of college and are working with him on a crew just to keep the business afloat.

He has his two crew chiefs numbers down Mexico way, but doesn't have enough work to call them.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:41 | 2426949 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Oh sure....the real estate folks are constantly pumping up the real estate market...and this all makes for great headlines.

The only way homebuilders could feel optimistic, in my opinion, is they have heard some rumor that banks will starting knocking down all of the foreclosures with greater speed...thus clearly the way for rental housing (which is surely a greater market these days vs. single family homes).

I'm not taking a sip of their Kool-Aid, however.  They are full o' beans.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:46 | 2426961 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

New Business School major coming soon to a university near you: LIE-ology: The study of how to Lie to suite your own agenda.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 13:41 | 2428042 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

See Public Relations, Marketing, Accounting, Finance...

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:47 | 2426969 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I wonder how many (new) home builders still exist or, perhaps, are still members of the NAHB?

OKay - this IS a stretch, but consider if most of your competition bites the dust and you are one of many fewer new home builders left your confidence might just ride high(er) that, relatively speaking, you are gonna do well.  

Eventually stuff like this may very well go to zero - and then posting about stats like will not be a high priority - but not in the real short's still kicking.



Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:50 | 2426983 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Maybe the builders are expecting homes will be bought with snap cards.



Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:57 | 2427020 aerial view
aerial view's picture

The banks (mortgage holders) are slowly releasing existing foreclosed homes at auction to investors as well as to broker/realtors to fix up and resell them; this slow release is because they don't want to flood the market and drive prices even lower (resulting in more underwater mortgages); however, at this rate, it will take at least 10 years to go through all the backlogged foreclosure inventory and those foolish enough to buy now end up trapped like the commercial for killing cockroaches: you can check in but not check out without incurring a large loss.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:58 | 2427031 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NAR's new ad campaign! ---> Fuck off I got work to do. - YouTube

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:06 | 2427062 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

99% of the 18-29 crowd has just as much of a chance buying homes whe nthey get older as the Cubs do of winning the World Series.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:28 | 2427162 Roy T
Roy T's picture

They did not get a direct bailout, but I believe they got a backdoor bailout and a great benefit from the tax loss carry back provisions put in place in 2009

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:36 | 2427225 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

"It's Cheaper to rent," says Shiller.


"GARY SHILLING: Home Prices Will Plummet 20% From Here"

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:58 | 2427381 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

On FT today: Young Americans delay purchase of homes


But but but, the bottom?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 12:03 | 2427433 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Hmmm....seems to me that the home builders are expecting a Fed Gov't based "program" to bail them out.

Possibly a "New Deal" type program to tear down dilapidated / abandoned housing, and build new ones (along the same central planning tenets as building the 60's inner city housing projects).

It is "hopium" but one never knows what the Hosuing Builders have been promised by the present Admin in concert with the Construction Unions. 


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 13:00 | 2427818 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

"Home-pium", bitchez....

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 03:06 | 2430581 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

Greece: when the lights go out

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