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Homes Have Never Been More Affordable (With One Footnote)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We said 1 for a reason, because while indeed homes have never been more affordable... one must pay for them in constant gold. Yes, holding gold over the past century has as of this point effectively defeated any of the accumulated home price inflation over the years, and when expressing home prices in terms of gold, the average home is now more affordable than ever before. We said gold. Not dollars, not yen, not spam, not Nobel economics prizes. So for everyone who wants to exchange some of that shiny metal into the most valuable and capital intensive investment the average American will do in their lifetimes, this is your moment.

 

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Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:22 | 1574793 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

did you account for rent?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:23 | 1574798 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

BTW,

I'm watching Final Destination 7... starring Bank of America

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:28 | 1574811 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

What owner of gold would be stupid enough to give it up for a single family home.

Wait a couple of years and for the same amount of gold, youll be able to buy the neighborhood.

The case for $20K/oz gold: http://goldsilver.com/the-debt-collapse-and-why-gold-silver-are-rising/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoldSilver+-+8172011&utm_content=GoldSilver+-+8172011+CID_cae0c95a3bb662ff17a73464c417ab4d&utm_source=GoldSilver+Email+Marketing&utm_term=Dont+miss+seeing+this+valuable+video

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:29 | 1574829 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Carrying cost on gold = $0

Carrying cost on home = infinite tax increases by city/state, insurance premiums going up, needed normal upkeep, etc.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:41 | 1574881 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

The prices of homes will get a whole lot cheaper in gold...bitchez.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:46 | 1574896 Jack Kreuz
Jack Kreuz's picture

And even if they don't go lower in gold, not one of the 7 million unemployed will be able to rent it from you anyway.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:58 | 1574932 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Maybe one of the 45 million people can pay you with their food stamps?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:33 | 1575041 Manthong
Manthong's picture

They will get cheaper faster in silver if you don't mind using a dolly.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:29 | 1575180 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Wake me up when you can buy a house with a mere three loaves of bread, a can of Red Feather butter, and one jar of raspberry jam. Until then they're still overvalued.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:12 | 1575138 HomelessCEO
HomelessCEO's picture

I'd trade my $200/mo in stamps for a roof over my head. Any takers?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:37 | 1575052 DC
DC's picture

Not many landlords I know will rent to the unemployed, how about the 150 million or so employed?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:59 | 1574936 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There will very soon be a carrying cost of gold.

Never EVER forget: The gov't will do ANYTHING to keep the balls in the air.  They will never outlaw gold or confiscate it.  They will tax it.  They will tax transactions at 70%.

If you were them, wouldn't you?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:04 | 1574955 trav7777
trav7777's picture

see "Greece"...or see "about anywhere else."

The government can TRY a lot of things; doesn't mean they can make them stick.  They tax drug transactions at "jail" right now and those seem to be sailing right along.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:14 | 1574988 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

i believe I can speak for most Americans when I reasonably say.  

FUCK compliance with bullshit laws like that.   Say hello black market

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:21 | 1575160 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

"All laws repugnant to the U. S. Constitution are null and void."  --  Marbury v.  Madison  1803

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:09 | 1575256 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

You might want to let Congress know.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:47 | 1577229 fallout11
fallout11's picture

They just forgot. Pitchforks and torches will remind 'em though....ah, who am I kidding, that's another thing that will never happen.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:30 | 1575031 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Retail investors by in large do not move the price of gold. Institutions do. They will never let this happen. Central Banks around the world are buying up gold like crazy. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:35 | 1575046 ferret
ferret's picture

They very well may institute a licence to possess gold, renewable annually, of course, for large fees.  Covers the big boys, and allows them to control the market.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:19 | 1575154 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

If I were them I would look for honest work, but you are right.  The demons will do whatever is necessary to stay in power.  It would not matter how many dead bodies piled up.    Tuco

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:40 | 1575327 samsara
samsara's picture

As If,   Ya,  Like they tax 70% on the transaction  when one buys an Oz. of pot.

You think like an Honest person.  While that may have been Admiral in other times,  it will get you killed in the future.      Learn to  Think Like an Outlaw.  

How do you  suppose those Wall Street guys got so much money?  THEY THINK LIKE OUTLAWS. 

Read your post.   Don't Do any 'Legal"  transactions.    Have no income 'On the Books'  Just like the big guys.  Nothing to Tax.

Black and Flea markets will be ubiquitious. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 22:08 | 1575654 Ironmaan
Ironmaan's picture

Jesus said, "render unto Caesar, what is Caesar's"

Well, that begs the question, what the fuck is Caesar's and as far as I'm concerned anything above 20% is thievery and I'll do what I have to do to keep my cash/gold etc. http://guerillatics.com

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:38 | 1575192 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Flipping houses made sense.  Being a landlord or owner makes you a target.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:22 | 1574794 electronpaul
electronpaul's picture

that chart is going lower....

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:44 | 1574893 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Way lower.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:47 | 1574902 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Yes, I think the "moment" will be long and shaped like a hockey stick.....

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:24 | 1575014 unununium
unununium's picture

To be fair, 2nd derivitive looks positive.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:22 | 1574795 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Still early in the game. I see the gold max/housing low point coming in 2013. Not to say it may go out lower and potentially not even be worth addressing if 'merica comes more and more unglued. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:26 | 1574813 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I vote for your third sentence

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:40 | 1575197 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It will go much, much lower.  Real estate is dead for a generation.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 00:41 | 1575796 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

+One Generation (in luie of voting)

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:49 | 1577249 fallout11
fallout11's picture

Right you are. No bubble in economic history has ever reinflated. Ever.  

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 11:18 | 1580996 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Oh it'll reinflate alright.  Right after my generation (boomers) downsizes into urns.  See you in 2040.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:37 | 1574871 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Everytime I think we've seen the low home price / low interest rate sweet spot, I just wait 6 months or so and another one comes along. People have been trying to call a bottom on this thing for 4 years now at least...I see ample reason to believe that this isn't it, either. 2013 maybe, but when CSHPI started turning south, 2011 seemed an impossibly long time to have to wait for the correction to end, and yet here we all are....

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:47 | 1574900 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Given that the US housing market has yet to be nationalized (officially), there's no telling how the market will look as we go forward. Well, other than that unglued part. That's pretty much assured.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:23 | 1574800 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

I'm surprised that spam hasn't done better.  But I'm sure spam will come into her own in the next few years.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:30 | 1574838 fuu
fuu's picture

Spam still accounts for a decent percentage of Hormel's profitability.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:51 | 1574911 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I love Spam, and I'm not even Hawaiian.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:59 | 1574938 RobD
RobD's picture

Spam=Food of the Gods! Slice it thin and fry it in bacon grease until crisp on the outside. Yummm. In all seriousness spam is a great survival food. Protein and lots of fat and salt, all of witch will be in short supply when the SHTF.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:16 | 1575144 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

+1

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:26 | 1574801 Dane Bramage
Dane Bramage's picture

That (home/farm 4 gold) is the plan, but I'm still going to wait a bit (guessing it'll be even more advantageous to do so).

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:43 | 1574892 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

I'm holding out too. Keep getting offers for cheaper and cheaper farmland. When the Greater Depression hits, I'll be trading a few ounces of silver for the farmland and farmhouse plus some livestock. Until then...we just hold.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:05 | 1574966 trav7777
trav7777's picture

why in the fuck would anybody ever trade you their farm plus livestock for your stupid few ounces of silver?

Silver isn't that valuable ,nor rare.  And if the farm is not sustainable, why would you trade for it anyway.

You silverbugz are frickin idiots

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:37 | 1575053 tmosley
tmosley's picture

There is more gold above ground than there is silver.  Silver is consumed in almost every industrial application where it is used.  It is mined as a biproduct of other metals, such that mining silver by itself is not economical (at these prices) for all but a few producers.  As the economy gets worse, and demand for base metals drops, silver production also drops.

But you never let the facts get in the way of your irrational hatred, do you?

Also, why would anyone trade you a farm plus livestock for a suitcase full of paper?  Just because you are (again) too stupid to see why something would happen doesn't mean that it won't.

Also, you are a fucking hypocrite, as you are on the record as owning silver.  Sell your silver.  You don't deserve it.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:53 | 1575227 Nom de Guerre
Nom de Guerre's picture

Yes.  And increasing amounts of silver are consumed in the healthcare industry.  I get pharma propaganda through my office daily, with more and more items that are promoted to be impregnated with silver ion.  It is a potent, broad-spectrum bactericidal.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:46 | 1575322 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Trav is quite interesting these days.

For one who understands and expounds ad infinitum about the exponential function, he seems to play a devils advocate for his amusement. Yesterday, he was bent on embracing the statement 'that in no way could the collapse of the monetary system' be planned. The intersection of exponential function, fiat money and debt service as performed dozens of times throughout history hasn't been forgotten. The cyclical nature of the scam has been known for thousands of years.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:47 | 1575577 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Thank Christ you two kept it short tonight. You're like Archie and Meathead, but in a bad way.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:38 | 1575055 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

Agreed trav:  I own a farm. and livestock and there is no fucking way it is selling for a couple shiny coins WTSHTF.  Perhaps your silver might buy you some eggs, maybe even a chicken....... but a few oz buying property is a stupid plan for preparing.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:17 | 1575149 tmosley
tmosley's picture

"No way you'd sell", huh?  What if you were injured and no longer able to work your farm?  What if that same amount of silver would also buy you a nice country home, and pay for nurse service for the next twenty years, along with all your living expenses?  What if it did all that, and you had only spent half of it?

Here's a hint:  you don't dictate prices.  The market does.  The market says silver isn't worth that much right now.  But that hasn't always, nor will it always be the case.  There have been times where silver was worth twice as much as gold, due to a total lack of stockpiles and the inability to refine the metal.  It could get there again if stockpiles are depleted, as they are on course for.  The only way to stop the depletion is for prices to rise.  A LOT.  Because most industrial uses of silver are such that the cost of the silver is a teeny tiny fraction of the total cost of the product, so they will pay ten or twenty, or even fifty times the current price in real terms if they have to.  After all, it will be a choice between raising the price of their television by 10% or not making it at all (or later investing R&D to find a substitute).  That continuing production is what will pay the price for your farmland. 

Would a super high price for silver last?  Probably not, as mining operations would ramp up like crazy.  But new mines have a long lead time, and ramping up production at old mines isn't easy either.  You would think that Trav the high priest of Peak Oil would understand that.  I am thinking at this point that he does, but he actually just wants to try to implement his "destroy humanity" scheme by impoverishing as many people as possible, hoping they will die off during the coming economic collapse.  After all, if they were dumb enough to listen to him, they must have an IQ below his cut-off for sterilization.

FYI, he owns silver himself.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 03:06 | 1576070 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"The market says silver isn't worth that much right now"

actually, what "the market" sez is that silver = $41.13, now

tmos is the one saying that silver "isn't worth much", now

trust me

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:25 | 1576744 DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

As much as it may surprise some, there exist deeper powers and truth than the market.  No way I'd ever sell my farm, even if somebody handed me enough gold to go buy France.  Hint: it'd be full of French people wanting to kill me for my gold and power.

I dictate value, and in that way, price is irrelevant to me.

To your hypothetical.  Injured, I would go feudal.  Trade the use of a corner of my farm to a hardworking family that I trust (if none of my own still were around), in exchange for basic care.

The ultimate entrapment is believing in fictions, on either side, whether it be the dominant fiction of the global powers that be, those perpetuating this corporate feudalism...or those in opposition, as many here.  Focus on what's required not just for survival but for resilience, health, and adaptive fitness...and beauty for your family, through the next 7 generations.

Do that, and gold, silver, JP Morgan Chase, Dimon, Bernanke, et al are a mere distant storm on the horizon.  One to watch to see how close it may approach, and in what form...i.e., the tax collector, the police, etc...

There's no better hedge for life than a fee simple absolute, that holds physical water (plentifully) and a good climate over the next 7 generations.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:14 | 1575142 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Trav, seriously look into a personal exercise program.  For your first exercise go to another site.

Tuco

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:45 | 1575203 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It may not be a voluntary trade.  For example, farmer goes BK.  See ya "green jeans".  The bank doesn't want to farm, but I've got something they understand: silver.  Bank trades.  I own farm.  "Green jeans" sharecrops for me.  EOS.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:11 | 1575260 jomama
jomama's picture

Silver isn't that valuable ,nor rare.

 

Ok, i'll bite.  these criteria are based on which supply/demand model?  (i'm not picky, just curious)

 

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:23 | 1574802 gniuz
gniuz's picture

Buy 1 house now, or buy 3 houses later..

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:25 | 1574807 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

... or 1 farm later.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:10 | 1574982 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

or one bar, or one cathouse. No matter how bad the economy gets, people will always want bitchez and booze....and blow.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:16 | 1575271 fuu
fuu's picture

For a base of operations you cannot beat a saloon.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 00:44 | 1575801 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Bingo. Generation of past knew better.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:27 | 1574819 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

You sign a mortgage....it's underwater before the ink is dry. Hyper-biflation.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:23 | 1575280 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Does that mean we'll have to purchase houses solely based on whether or not we want to live in them?   The horror...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:27 | 1574823 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I am a Pirate! my home is a Chest for my Gold Doubloons!

where ever I may roam, my cannons / doubloons are with me.. and that is home!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWlSw5Kb0dg

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:29 | 1574833 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

on a more serious note..

i / we are selling stabilized income..

we are going ALL! hard assests!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:27 | 1574824 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

One ounce of gold will buy all of Florida some day. [/sarcasm]

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:34 | 1574863 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

tax deed sales? sure.. but thats every where!

Trump Sells Palm Beach House for $100 Million - CNBC

www.cnbc.com/.../Trump_Sells_Palm_Beach_House_for_100_Milli... - CachedSimilar You +1'd this publicly. Undo May 15, 2008 – Business magnate Donald Trump recently sold a house in Palm Beach for $100 million, although the U.S. housing sector is still weak, ...
  that was a sale in 2008.. not 2005. I HATE Donnie so dont start with that idiot with me plz??

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:08 | 1575254 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

One ounce of gold will buy all of Florida some day.

Bad trade.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 00:48 | 1575815 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Too big to keep clean

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:55 | 1577273 fallout11
fallout11's picture

Manhattan Island was purchased for less, and is supposedly worth more (today).

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:28 | 1574826 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

MBW is a 30+ year commercial real estate appraiser. Go ahead and pay rent suckers.  If you have no intention to settle down, or be a part of your community...throw your equity away.

In the original Republic, guess what? You had to OWN property. Guess why? Had to have skin the game. Bitchez!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:37 | 1574868 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

your equity will disappear before Christmas

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:39 | 1575325 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Mine won't.  Sure, the paper value may change- but the real equity in my home is the fact that I have built/remodeled it the way I want it, and have made a lot of memories here.  

Seriously- I'm not disputing that real estate may be a bad trade, and it may stay that way for a long time.  So, trade something else.  But no matter what else happens, you need to live somewhere- and it's far easier to be in familiar and comfortable surroundings when times are hard than it is to be aimlessly drifting from hovel to hovel.  It not only allows you to plan and stock, but it also provides an anchor for your family.

Look at it this way, for example.  Let's say the worst case senario occurs, and there is fresh blood on the streets daily.  Where would you rather be- in a house you have the right to modify for security, or in a rental property where the landlord put the cheapest lockset he could find on the cheapest door around?  Is it better to be surrounded by neighbors you have known for years, or semi-nomadic renters who do not know or care about you?

When your kids want to go outside to play, do you want them out in a parking lot next to a dumpster, or in a fenced backyard?  

I know a lot of you may have grown children, or none at all- but for those of us who do have little ones, there is no real option to home ownership if you care about their quality of life.  It might be the only stable thing left in the world if you have a fixed rate or have paid off the property, and there's really no limit to what that can be worth.

And we need to be realistic about the property taxes- sure, they may go up, but your landlord is not just going to eat the cost as a service to you.  Your rent will increase accordingly, end of story.  There's no avoiding those taxes unless you are going to live in an RV or a tent.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:17 | 1575404 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

If someone has non-financial quality-of-life reasons for buying a home, no problem, have at it.

But like someone above said, it's underwater before the ink dries on the mortgage. And who knows when the bank will lose chain-of-title and some other bank fraudulently forecloses and sorta kills that quality of life?  And who knows when that job will disapper and you end up giving that "quality-of-life" back to the bank?

Face it realtards, the product you're peddling ain't what it used to be, and it's gonna be one hell of a long time before it is again ...if ever.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:20 | 1575453 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

So was my car (underwater before the ink dried, that is), but I still need to drive to work somehow...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1577308 fallout11
fallout11's picture

We all have to live somewhere, after all. Housing makes a lousy investment, but honestly that was misaligned thinking to begin with.....shelter is one of those five basic requirements (along with food, water, etc) for survival.  As long as one thinks of it as a durable good instead your head is on straight.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:38 | 1583368 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Mine won't...I don't have mortgages on any of my properties. 100% equity. The overinflated markets can continue to drop...My property taxes have gone down for the last 3 years.

BTW...Rental income is not "earned income" and is not subject to SE tax. You self employed folks know that as the "social security" ponzi, and it amounts to 16.5% of "earned income".

Rental income also has its very own tax form where you get to depreciate the improvements, plus get to a net income after expenses.

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:59 | 1574920 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

"MBW is a 30+ year commercial real estate appraiser"

And your next career is what?

Many here sold their homes near the peak, back when the realtards were saying it would go up forever. Smokin deals can now be had and will only get better. Realtards will be sleeping in their cars by 2013.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:40 | 1583373 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Funny you should ask...for the last 3 years the bulk of my income has been from....my rental properties. Appraisal has fallen into the toilet.

Keep on renting out there folks...Us landlords appreciate the income.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:11 | 1575132 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

If we exist in the geographical confines of the U. S. we already have skin in the game!  Good luck on peddling your declining wares when the mortgage interest deduction is rescinded.    Tuco

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:07 | 1575407 thesapein
thesapein's picture

I thought it a bid odd myself that he didn't count real skin as skin. Too barbarous perhaps?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:56 | 1575231 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

MrBinkeyWhat,

I understand where you are coming from, but the world has been turned upside down.  At some point it will reverse.  Timing matters.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:34 | 1575244 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Are you suggesting we rescind women's right to vote, and make slave ownership legal again, and make slaves 3/5 of a person?

Those things also existed back in the "original Republic".

Skin in the game?  Like sky-high property taxes, sewer assessments, road assesments, school taxes, MERS, banks losing chain-of-title, robosigning, fraudulent foreclosure, stuff like that?

And by the way, what's it like watching your CRE sector collapse, living on foodstamps, moonlighting at McDonalds, etc?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 03:08 | 1576072 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I don't think anyone's suggesting throwing the baby out with the bathwater (re:  Constitution), but SOMEHOW, RESPONSIBILITY has to be tied into the right to vote!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:46 | 1583840 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Nice Avatar. No I am not advocating anything. I am not a big fan of the Constitution, as it was a middle of the night compromise of the Articles of Confederacy.

In fact, I am pretty much a "Rothbardian Anarcho-Capitalist". In the mean time, I will be happy to collect rent on the properties that I own.

Thanks...have a great weekend.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 22:26 | 1575724 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

Rent Vs. Buy? The best site on the web for this is Patrick.net A good guy and a good site, check it out.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:29 | 1574835 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

not in Nobel prizes....haha

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:29 | 1574836 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

an ounce of gold will buy both the s&p and the russell2k now..

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:30 | 1574839 brokesville
brokesville's picture

Home vs Gold,  mmm , Home = property tax and voted bonds for schools, fire dept, and bs , Gold= private and portable, keep gold

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:30 | 1574841 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

My home is for sale. PLEASE... I need some sucker to buy it!!!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:42 | 1574885 data_monkey
data_monkey's picture

+1...

I don't really need to sell it. I just want to buy something bigger with more land and pocket the difference to put in PM's.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:07 | 1575124 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

You might want to adjust your marketing approach:)?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:36 | 1574859 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Homes should be cheap in the USA.  Food and alchohol too.  People don't care if gold goes to 10,000, but they will riot if food costs a few dollars more than they can afford.  I call it the riot effect in soft commodities.  When they start throwing rocks, you know pork belly's have hit a top.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:34 | 1574864 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Bullhinkie! I just got a super-dooper update from the elliottwave gang. Gold is in the final stages of a blow-off top!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:47 | 1574901 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Bwah-hahahahahah.  Is Prechter STILL preaching that crap?  What a complete douche.

Will anybody even give him an intereview anymore? 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:00 | 1574940 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

He is, he did, and the sad part is I pay for it!!!!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 03:08 | 1576074 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!  as an agrarian, you sure know how to use the spreader!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:06 | 1575122 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Time to buy more!  Given a choice between heads or tails or following Prechter's advice, I'll flip the coin every time.               Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez                                               

It's Elliot Wave your money good buy!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:42 | 1574886 FLIP THAT BOND
FLIP THAT BOND's picture

I thought zero hedge was about making money, not throwing it down the drain. Real estate will become much much cheaper and gold will become much much more expensive so go ahead and sell you're gold to buy real estate if you don't like money.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:53 | 1574917 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Uhhhmm.... Hmm.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:02 | 1575114 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Agreed.  "Don't try to catch a falling knife!"

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:58 | 1575236 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Even if this were the bottom for RE, which it isn't.  RE will remain on the bottom for a loooooooong time.  No rush here.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:18 | 1575446 thesapein
thesapein's picture

Pausing as I keep reading down the line of posts, wow, I just realized I read ZH for the comments. Good stuff. The quality seems to have been going up.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:43 | 1574889 HomelessCEO
HomelessCEO's picture

Call me when you can eat it. I'm hungry.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:14 | 1574990 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

You can if it's made of gingerbread.

But it's unclear how weatherproof a gingerbread house is.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:45 | 1574895 speconomist
speconomist's picture

Specially written for @Nouriel.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:46 | 1574898 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

I was just thinking about that the other day.

Figured 100 oz of gold would buy a decent home in 1880 and would do the same today, but with indoor plumbing.

It oughta get even better since Obama is unlikely to take his errant elbow off the home deflator button.

 

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:56 | 1574904 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm a little bearish.

With 18 million vacant homes in the U.S. (and building), and even assuming 20% of them may not be habitable, I will trade for a McMansion in a nice part of town when the ratio equals 8 ounces per McMansion.

That's assuming I can put my foot up the assessor's ass, and tell them I will pay $0 in property taxes (I may go as high as $50 a month - not the asinine $400 a month they're getting now).

Until then, I continue to dine on traditionally delicious barbaric relic.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:08 | 1574976 Young Buckethead
Young Buckethead's picture

In Newport Beach, CA, property tax can be upwards of $15,000 per month. Bill Gross lives on the most costly of private islands in Newport Harbor. His property tax must be triple that.

Oh, it's good to be the Bond King. (Don't get me wrong, I don't know what he does behind the scenes to make the money he does - he does get invited to the most exclusive parties - but I love his monthly missives.)

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:00 | 1575384 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I guess I can see the griping in those cases.

Now I get to make a few neener-neener sounds in your general direction.  My house cost me the equivilent of 44oz of gold, is on a one acre lot, and has four bedrooms and two baths.  Certainly not a mansion, but large enough so that all the kids have their own rooms and we can plant a good-sized garden every year.  All new appliances, and I've got a full, dry basement with good lighting that is full of tools and food.  Property tax?  $100/month.  Altogether, with the mortgage, property tax, homeowner's insurance, and a million-dollar life insurance policy, the out of pocket cost is $700 a month, give or take a couple bucks.  I can hustle that in any given day, if I need to.

Yes, it's semi-rural.  Which means that I know most of the people in town, and we have adequate supply of clean water and food from farms that could be reached with a brisk stroll in an hour or so- minutes in a car.  And, I get paid slightly north or the US median income.  Cost of living/income is incredible compared to just about anywhere- sure, we can't afford thousands of ounces of gold, but who cares when a handful of krugerands would buy twice as much as suitcase of them would buy in New York or Kalifornia?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:55 | 1574921 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Guess that would be the double-inverse of STAGFLATION biyatchez!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:55 | 1574923 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Yeah, but their all being bull-dozed....

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:57 | 1574927 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

$8 drop in crude oil from this week's highs also helped the consumer.

Note how today's oil plunge hasn't even been factored into lower gas prices in L.A. which have been in freefall for 3 months:

http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G

No wonder the retailers like TGT and LTD were barely down today.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:07 | 1574971 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

when the chavez venezuela story broke yesterday about pulling in their gold this is what the 'tard had to say:

"So far, no reaction in Access trading.

Down $4 from today's highs.

Nothing to see here, Venezuela is too small of a factor.

Gimme a hedge fund  that is willing to sack up and take 300 tons off the COMEX by taking physical delivery from paper contracts.

Then, you will have a real panic.

Until then, Chavez is just blowing smoke."

gold at that point was $1790. last i saw it was $1825. now you know why i say:

robottrader: the ultimate dumb money indicator.

as ever: gentleman jim sinclair sends warm regards.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:16 | 1574992 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Chavez's gold, unlike comex, isn't supposed to be encumbered by any paper.  Granted, it was probably sold and leased out 10x over by now, but there's a marked difference between his demand of what is supposed to be sittin in a vault with his name on it and expecting COMEX counterparties to cough up physical off a futures exchange (which wouldn't happen anyway).

Comex is a CASH SETTLEMENT futures exchange; it is NOT intended for actual physical things anymore.  Real gold is bought from real miners who really dig the shit out of the real ground.  The futures markets exist for these real producers to hedge on a cash basis.  The banks like JPM make them pay for that insurance.  Look at the Comex/Nymex as an insurance vehicle and it starts to become more apparent how misguided the crashthecomex crowd is.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:20 | 1575004 DC
DC's picture

Well said

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:43 | 1575063 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well said?  It's fucking lies.  Futures exchanges by definition do not allow for cash settlement.  The COMEX has changed the rules, allowing for settlements in GLD or SLV paper (which is really default by any definition of a futures exchange), as though those shares were as good as the metal, but they have NEVER allowed contracts to be settled in cash, and they NEVER WILL.  At most, it is GLD/SLV paper+cash.

Trav has no fucking idea what he is talking about, and anyone who listens to him is a rube.  He is trying to impoverish as many people as he can, since he can't sterilize you.  He's hoping that you will die from your poverty before you can have any more children.  It's fucking disgusting.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:07 | 1575224 dumpster
dumpster's picture

tmosley

though those shares were as good as the metal, but they have NEVER allowed contracts to be settled in cash, and they NEVER WILL.

 

i understand differently.. 

the comex has rules that suit themselves

 

the comex and the silver market have on a consistent basis been offering 25% extra cash settlements ,, not to take the metal.

.

the real cash costs now of gold and silver are closer to 50 and 2000.. 

to take off the comex for product they not have .. they will pay under tha table another 25%   

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:05 | 1575399 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

COMEX = TREASON

 

FED = TREASON

 

SEC = TREASON

 

Country Simple even a rube can comprehend! 

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 22:07 | 1575652 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you are a sexxy beast!

preach it brother! preach it!!

lets get the fucking ropes out and start finding these fuckers!!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 22:10 | 1575664 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I understand you are throwing pies in clown travis's face..

but  for give me O.T. stuff here..

you are missed bro!

nice to see ya man!

try to not work so hard for fiat and enjoy a little life while the lights are still on!

stop by more and visit here too!!

much luv fucker!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 03:21 | 1576090 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

@ tmos: Well said?  It's fucking lies post:  you might be wanting to say  "delivery settlement"

it is also possible to take profits in cash, options, other futures, spreads, or anything else the crimex peddles, isn't it?

the gold trav is referring to is 99 tonnes, and tyler published a "report" yest that had it going thru the morgue, which doesn't have the inventory, according to the published crimex inventory report at the time

now, we know gold is fungible, but venezuela wants the physical.  so, we shall see...  after all, it's only 99 tonnes

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:33 | 1575040 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i know. that's why i own physical, only. that said, chavez pulling gold back to venezuela might have a ripple effect that leads who knows where in this environment. with the crime and games being played now i suspect anything could happen and wouldn't be surprised at anything.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:58 | 1575099 beastie
beastie's picture

Put your tinfoil hat on Trav becasue you will need it for this quick tour.

I think Chavez will get his gold or at least he is being led to believe he is in the short term.
GLD posted this on their site this week. It’s a FAX showing that JPM and others are taking delivery. What is unusual is they never present the data in this format. EVER.
A copy of the Fax appeared and then disappeared to be replaced with their normal info. Is this a public message saying we will get your gold? A copy of the Fax that appeared is here;

screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/08/gld-etf-mechanics-101.html

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:31 | 1575036 forexskin
forexskin's picture

i used to find robotard amusing, but as a foil, his presentations are too weak to stir it up anymore. *sigh* oh for the good old days, when a 'tard posting would bring out the amusing big guns...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:36 | 1575051 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

very true. he had a good high point with the running of the wildebeasts and zebras. since then not so much.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:51 | 1575592 Conor
Conor's picture

Then it's time to buy energy, right?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:59 | 1574928 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Homes still way overpriced, esp. in California. Sellers are in utter fantasyland. Many of these sellers have no savings, only their homes, and thus need to pillage money from young families so they can afford retirement.

Wait on real estate, look for more huge drops. Wait until there is abject fear and total capitulation to put your money to work in real estate. We may have to wait until after the 2013 ZIRPfest comes to an end. But end it will, and when rates burst higher, it'll be a glorious real estate sledgehammer the likes of which will make overextended homeowners' heads explode.

PS absurdly overpriced real estate sure has put a major stranglehold on this economy. No disposable income. No savings. Absolutely drowning in debt, taxes and fees. Fuck overpriced real estate, I cannot adequately express my hatred for it.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:13 | 1574987 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the tax the rich policies are going to extend to real estate; mark my words.  Go after those rich people's homes, the ones for $1MM and up.  The carrying cost of real estate has nowhere to go but up

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:06 | 1575247 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Correct.  Just don't get lumped in with "the rich".

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:18 | 1574997 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i agree with you 100% EXCEPT that homeowners are in fantasy land......i think its more they have no intention (or ability) to bring $50,000 check to closing TO SELL THEIR HOUSE !

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:31 | 1575030 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

2013 haha...  It could be Mad Max by then.  I don't think that far.  The shit-storm is too violent and unpredictable to bother.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:56 | 1575086 JR
JR's picture

Here are the baked in ingredients of GS/Bernanke “debt poison” given by Eric Margolis. (For added potency, include two more years of Bernanke ZIRP.) :

US debt exploded to $43 trillion as a gigantic credit bubble created by Greenspan swelled, and the George W. Bush wars continued unfinanced by taxes …

Housing came to account for 40% of the growth of the US economy ...

Financial services soared from 10.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1950 to 20.4% of GDP – becoming America’s leading industry …

The business of America’s business became passing paper around, a process called ‘securitization’; 44 % of US corporate profits came from the financial sector (lending money); only 10% from manufacturing …

Manufacturing, once the bedrock of America’s fabulous wealth – 30% of the US economy in 1950 – declined to a miserable 12% by 2005 …

Banks were allowed to lend $35-40 for every $1 deposit ... 

Managers of the huge pools of unregulated capital called hedge funds had to pay only 15% tax while ordinary workers paid double that rate, or more...

Regarding the primacy of Wall Street: - “Much of the West’s banking industry has become a parasitic scourge that is bleeding the economies of the US and Europe. The current financial crisis is due to runaway government borrowing, poor banking credit controls, and rampant greed unchecked by regulation or good sense – Politicians are just as guilty as financiers.”

Concludes Margolis in Hooked on Debt: “Financial power must be de-concentrated and dispersed.”

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:58 | 1574934 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Non news really. Everything is cheap compared to Gold.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:08 | 1575255 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It is an all-time low and well worth noting.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:01 | 1574945 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I waited 3 years to pull the trigger and bought one of BAC's short sales at 1/2 price. Am thinking I should have waited until next year when another 25% comes off the top. These are crazy times, indeed.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:11 | 1574984 vocational tainee
vocational tainee's picture

Compared to to good build brick houses in europe, it is quite understandible that american houses are cheap.Quality is something different...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 06:49 | 1576272 Incubus
Incubus's picture

None of these McMansions in the 'burbs will last the life of their -original mortgages- let alone what a traditional house did. 

The 'burbs will be part of american history: a rotting reminder of yester-year, when "times were good."  -with a fucking wal-mart to taint every neighborhood.

 

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:19 | 1575001 machineh
machineh's picture

That chart is putting in a double bottom with January 1980, gold's secular high for 25 years afterward.

Beware the Crimex and the next margin hike.

TPTB are not gonna take this taunting lying down.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:11 | 1575261 dumpster
dumpster's picture

as gold and silver explode higher .. all buying will be 100 percent cash /

and if you can find it in competition with governments and hedge funds who will be buying as gold hits 2500 and higher .

it will become a cash transaction,, not subject to paper games .  come to the table with your dough.  

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:07 | 1575405 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Physical transactions already are, and have been for some time.  I have yet to see a coin shop that will accept check or credit for physical gold or silver, though they're fine with both for other things.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:21 | 1575008 unununium
unununium's picture

Furthermore, if your pay for your home with gold eagles at face value, seller may save a boatload on taxes, which he could share with you.  Plus, he gets the gold.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:26 | 1575018 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

... one thing, you still never own it if you are forced to pay tax on what you own outright. We are all renting ...Bitchez. Chairsatan and the 911 Jets, every stupid shit that accepts a word they offer, into the black hole. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AGzNGMUXR4&feature=related

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:42 | 1575062 prole
prole's picture

I agree. Americans buy and sell options on the lease, to property which is owned always by the real owner (.gov) They delude themselves that this is "ownership."

Question for you/all. What is the solution? Is there any place in the world where a gay blade can buy and own property?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:50 | 1575221 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

There are places in the world that do not have real property taxes if that is your question.  Some of them are even pleasant.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:27 | 1575025 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If you had purchased 10 $200K homes in LV Nevada with liar loans and zero down in 1998 at 4% APR and rented them and then sold them in 2007 for $500K you would have netted $$3 million in ten years without any risk and without involving a penny of your own money.  That's hard to do with gold.  Gold has had a good runup but with an ETF you'll pay > 28 % tax on any gains less commissions.  Tens of thousands of people became very wealthy on real estate.  Not that many people have become wealthy with gold.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:43 | 1575065 DC
DC's picture

Interesting set of data. Tens of thousands can also be "not that many" and "not that many" in the scope of a billion could be quite a few. Can you present something a bit more difinitive to back up your assertions? And further; why does it have to be one or the other (gold or real estate). I happen to own both.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:15 | 1575269 dumpster
dumpster's picture

stack the deck/

and if wishes were fishes .. had he sold  or tried to sell them in 2009  .. the game changes/

if you had bought gold at 250 and held it till now.  of course you have no dough.. having gone underwater with your fictional real estate wish

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 20:26 | 1575287 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I own both, too.  Real estate is real easy to leverage thanks to the Feds.  If you had purchased god at $800 and then resold in 1998 for $292 you'd have had a hefty loss.  Timing is everything.  The big question is at what point do you sell gold and jump into real estate.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 22:16 | 1575683 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

... and if you had purchased 10 $500K homes in LV Nevada with liar loans and zero down in 2007 at 4% APR and rented them and then sold them in 2010 for $200K each you would have lost $3 million in three years without any risk and without involving a penny of your own money. 

:)

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