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Honey Badger Market Completely Ignores 2012 Lowest Consumer Confidence
As JPM takes off, US equities go vertical, and EURUSD overdoses on erectile dysfunction stop-hunting-algo medicine, the good old US consumer - that bastion of demand and foundation of all things GDP-based just said sentiment levels are the worst of the year so far. UMich Consumer Confidence Sentiment just printed 72.0 against expectations of 73.4 - the biggest miss since December 2009. Worst still is the plunge in expectations (economic outlook) to the lowest in 7 months as the 2-month drop is the biggest in a year. It would appear all is not well on Main Street - as the massive schism between ISM Composite relative strength and the reality of the economy remains. As an aside, given this morning's hotter than expected inflation data, 1 year ahead forecasts for inflation fell to their lowest in 19 months.
It seems our cycles are playing out like clockwork as sentiment plunges...
but who needs them consuming types anyway...
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
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Honey badger don't care! Omygod, it's just GRUNTING!
Honey badger don't care about consumer snakebite! Honey badger on his feet!
He, too, supports the strong yuan!
Oh my GORD is that a ssssnake?
The market has a ways to go. Apple is coming right up. We should get buying heading into and out of AAPL earnings.
Honey Badger don't give a shit he just takes what he wants
Confucius say badger with hand in bee hive is honey badger. He also say your honey are belong to us.
This market will make grown (sane) man cry
Risk On Bitchez!!!
Disclosure: Not too happy about it...
doesn't give a DAMN
10:00a U.S. stocks rally harder after confidence number
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsviewer
Wake the fuck up, there is no "market".
Yes there is, it's just not what you (or I) think it is.
some of us thought the market was about transactions between consumers and producers. If you think about the market this way, you would get the erroneous conclusion that no consumers = bad for the market. And thus you'd expect terrible consumer sentiment to be bad for the stock market.
but when one realizes that "the market" is simply transactions between one supercomputer and another supercomputer based on algorithms and fractals, well then it all makes sense!
We just need the inputs to the computers and we can derive the outputs.
I think it's something like this:
Free money from the Fed and bailout money from the government = profit.
Sky high salary + Commission based on busted trades - (Tank the world economy) = Master of the Universe + Retention Bonus.
no its worse than that.
Algos are now being used by many news agencies and so forth to actually WRITE the news, I shit you not. Then wall street algos "read" the newspaper algo and trade among other wall street algos. Its turning into one big fucking computer simulation, NOTHING to do with reality.
And then we need Hellfire armed CIA drones operating under DHS Intel algorithms, firing into potential anti-Squid/Whale critic's homes.
Skynet....Govnet.....Squidnet!
It's a 100% Poker-faced Psychological Market. It's a game now. "Would you like to play a game??"
Classic. In turn I say: "no play yourself". Which I think that is what is happening. So does the system come to a conclusion this is all BS and needs to be melted down and scrubbed clean?
When do we get started?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6IeASZZf1c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SH8wDkqA_50
but but China's cooked books tell us they are ok.. thus the world is okey dokey. See a lie makes it better, a big lie makes it much better.
Wonder how CNBS is "explaining" this pop?
by saying " Apple makes shiny objects, they make me smile"...
Maria Bartiromo: The market is off of its lows.
Honey Badger Potter don't give a sh-t!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg
This is probably the worst I've seen it in 3+ years. Nothing makes any sense anymore.
it all makes sense once you accept that the whole market is a rigged game.
Which is why everybody should read the Michael Lewis book The Big Short.
He talks about several interviews he had with WS types that said before the collapse in 2007 and 2008 they couldn't figure out why the markets would zig zag in directions that made no sense. Afterwards they realized it was portfolio managers placing bigger and bigger double or nothing bets that was causing the craziness.
Plenty of stooges on ZH voted for the islamic and still love him.
Did they fix Europe last night, and only Goldman Sachs knows?
They had a piece on NPR this morning about how Europe (All Europe needs to do is... Get a FED like ours)
Looks like BTFD is still en vogue...fuckin' ridiculous.
Someday bad-ass Honey Badger is going to get stepped on by an elephant while he's napping after his cobra bite.
Someone...anyone, unplug those fucking machines and bitchslap the 19 year old fucktard geeks programming them!
Naw Soup - leave the kids alone - hang their bosses.
This is Soviet style intervention under the guise of national security
What guise?
Fighting terrorists, preventing anarchy, saving babies, whatever works so they can get away with it.
Oh. I just considered that as extra bullshit. Looks like they are pretty in-your-face obvious about the direct market intervention.
But, hey, whatever.
JNJ is the next Dow stock to make new highs. PG will be the next one after that.
One by one, new highs across the board, yet the bears are still hanging on to every word out of KWN who is still predicting the "End of the World"
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Ci...
Hilarious how Eric King now heaps praise on the PigMen Bank analysts, now considered to be the "experts" on market direction.
SPAM
An insult to SPAM everywhere.
WTF bears is he talking about? NPR plays their happy business music and everyone I know says market will keep going up up up because Bernanke is printing money. Long and strong Apple, Netflix, Chiptole, Priceline, Target. Let's go Bernanke. Be MY BITCH!!!! LOL.
Oh my god! What's he doing?! He's lying about LIBOR. What a son of a bitch! Honey Badger don't care...Honey Badger don't give a shit!
:)
Diss RobotTrader all you want but if you check the charts & Options chains for the last 2 months if you had picked up a few at-the-money calls for NFLX you'd be happy with that performance selling today.
Unless 60% profit is just too low for your liking, of course.
JNJ isn't like other stocks. The company's never made a giant fuckup and has always brought affordable yet useful products to the masses.
Even if the DOW tanks I speak no ill of JNJ.
I would say in fact that if we don't see a currency collapse this would be a good trade:
JNJ C 18JAN14 50.00 US - wait until September or October 2012 - try 1.00 to 1.50 for a buy price. Watch for the stock to be pulled down by global finance problems and market fears to 50/share perhaps 60.
Load up on shares and that Call contract at the best price you can get.
Being long JNJ has been a proven non-failing move for decades and I think JNJ can sustain this activity, barring the blackest of barb-wire taloned black swans, for many more decades.
At this time the price action tells me it's not a bad idea to get a few Puts for JNJ but it's not JNJ's fault, it's market-correlated momentum that will pull it down. Don't load up on it, just use some fancy-spending cash you can live without to see what happens.
What's the worst that can happen?
For the older folks:
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/honey-badger
although a little off topic, the harsh reality of an on going drought in the nation's "breadbasket" will continue to add to the gloom
I was in Nebraska and Iowa and the corn is stressed almost everywhere. I am crossing Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan this week.
Looks very much like the "acres planted" reported is almost meaningless. GLOOM.
Got CORN ?
corn is looking to have is third highest harvest ever, yes the midwest is in a drought, by the north east and other areas are having a bumper crop.
It BTFD or it gets the hose!
If the two "riskiest" assets have u-turned and made a bottom this morning (Gold and Euro), then it is going to be a long summer for the bears.
SPAM
An insulting insinuation to SPAM.
Someone needs to apologize.
The 2 riskiest assets are US treasuries and Greek bonds
Another low volume wow rally, as black boxes report: China, JPM, WFC and Univ. of Michigan.
I can't believe Dow and S&P are still called MARKET.
It's just 21 primary dealers selling stocks to each other.
How's that a market?
SHHHHH!
Psst: You don't need to know what's in the sausage. Just eat it.
OTC
easy as
F E D
Or simple as
S E C
O T C, 1 2 3, baby, you and me Blythe
Come on, let me short you naked just a bit
Come on, let me push it down there just a bit
I'm a going to teach how to string it out
Come on, come on, come on
Let me show you what it's all about...
They chenged the spelling without telling anyone. It's now M A R K I T
HFT 1: Hey, let's mark it to 12,850 today.
HFT 2: OK, but I have some shorts so we'll have to mark it to 12,630 tomorrow...
The Federal Cocaine Reserve is hinting to the junkies that a new shipment of high purity is near:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-11/a-few-fomc-members-said-more-st...
simply realize, that not all is too bad, more than you think is fixed in Europe. Stop bearish commenting! Now!
When Weimer Germany endured hyperinflation the consumer sentiment index was extremely low. Meanwhile the mark to fantasy stock market made new highs. Are we seeing a parallel here? If so, who is our new Oligarch waiting in the wings to bring us unfettered global war?
Perhaps we already have our war monger chief.
It appears we are living through another extreme example of history that rhymes. My advice? Get ready for some serious gut check over the next 24 months. Cause if history does indeed rhyme we appear to be somewhere in 1931-1932.
I see deflation not inflation. You really think your paycheck is about to double anytime soon?
your paycheck may not double, but the price of everything will. The welfare sheep will scream for more gravy, and the government will be glad to oblige as long as more freedom is given up.
hyperinflation is a loss of confidence in the currency. It generally happens when we least expect it. I see financial scandals without end, market manipulation without end, debt without end, our large trading partners are abandoning trade with the U.S. Dollar, I see inflation for goods and services that we require to live, I see the gap between the poor and the rich separating faster, I see college costs soaring, I see the Fed lending to the U.S. Gov't because no one else will. I see a run on sentence ;-)
I do not see deflation: I see bubbles that popped in housing and a middle class under siege. What's the price of gas? What's the price of food? What's the price of energy? Exactly..I see currency debasement everywhere. Then comes loss of faith and hyperinflation. My paycheck hasn't doubled but the cost of everything else is going up.
Very good point on Hyperinflation being a loss of confidence, not just "a lot of inflation". This is a point that is lost on many people.
One thing I would disagree on is deflation. I think we **MIGHT** see deflation in many sectors first as those asleep look for shelter in dollars and treasuries once things start to fall (ala 2008). However, as you said, once faith is lost ANYTHING that has tangible real-world value will go through the roof.
The one catch with the hyperinflation call is that here in the USA, there are NO COMPETING CURRENCIES.
I believe we'd have to see rampant inflation for quite some time before the "average American" gets the idea to start using some other scrip to trade.
We're talking about hundreds of millions of people who really haven't ever thought about this suddenly waking up and saying, "I don't really need to bother with these ugly green pieces of paper."
That's not going to happen overnight. Not here.
Hope & Chains. Idiots voted for this. Not that the A Team is much different but the B & O team is like Mugabe,
IMO it's important not to get hung up on overly simplistic definitions of inflation. We can have our currency being devalued, asset prices rising but with no demand for labour, wages stagnating. Prices aren't rising due to demand they are rising because of way too much money in the system. Bernanke will someday concede that his short term solution ended up cratering the real economy.
I mentioned that it appears we are in a similar time period as 1931. The hyper inflation didn't hit until the 2nd half of 1932. I'm wondering if QE3 will be the trigger for our own ride down history lane. After all...look at all the money swashing in the system today. Look at all the monetary easing of China, Europe, and the U.S....We will get velocity.
wait til food skyrockets this fall- can you say BIflation boys and girls? sure I knew you could
bullish-it
About 2 months ago, francis_sawyer posted a comment about consulting the "oracle of the honey badger" & nobody got the joke... Glad everyone is finally catching on...
Contrary to what the idiot box tells you, the US consumer is tapped out.
You can't build an economy on the 1% buying loads of crap to show off to each other, and letting 500 credit score government transfer payment receiving welfare clowns buy new cars for long.
Car companies played this game before, and it led them to bankruptcy. The hope now is that the government will backstop the billions in losses headed to Ally financial with taxpayer money. Taxpayer money that doesn't really exist any more.
Much of the wealthy have figured out how to pay almost nothing in taxes, same with most multinational corporations. 50% of the rest of the country gets their daily fix directly from the government. The 40% living on middle America on a middle class salary are completely tapped out, and they are beyond pissed watching Yolanda and her five kids buy lobster with SNAP cards.
Instead of building confidence, the rising stock market is destroying it and breeding nothing but anger and resentment. Consumers aren't confident and they are saving all they can for the inevitable, the day they lose their jobs. Every person I talk to is just waiting to lose their job, they don't know when it will happen. They just know it will.
My momma's momma on foodstamps just opened her Etrade account and I told her to buy stock in Apple and IWM and whatever else Robo is telling us is making new highs. She asked me who is Bernanke? And I told her 'he's our BITCH!!!'
Don't let us down Bernanke. Ummm, order up. Could you please print a little more today. Momma would like to make at least 10 points in Apple.
Psst, Bernanke, it doesn't even have to be real, just tell us you're printing more money and your minions will do all the work.
Hats off to the badgers.
mutual funds and ins co's depend on the bond and stock market..they are the big money staying the course..the hedges and bank traders have lost the retail guys to rape..so who's left..perhaps liquidating 401k's is a wise move, just don't pay the taxes, let them catch you if they can when it all falls down. If corzine et al can get a get out of jail card are we that far away from everyone getting one, it only fair as the leftist pols have said for years..it's what's fair.
What's fair for most of us is different from what's fair for political contributors like Corzine. Money may not always be able to buy health, but it often can buy immunity from prosecution.
Market action looks suspect. The Dow could drop 200 points intraday like it did lasy Tuesday.
What?? How is that possible?
just closed my short hedge..this market could implode so quickly that ben & co won't be able to pump quick enough. or not. hanging out there is the gamble WTF it's only fiat. vxx,tza..baby needs a new pair of shoes.
When Money Dies
Thus must sound money be the first bastion of a society's defence.In 1923, with its currency effectively worthless (the exchange rate in December of that year was one dollar to 4,200,000,000,000 marks), the Weimar Republic was all but reduced to a barter economy. Expensive cigars, artworks and jewels were routinely exchanged for staples such as bread; a cinema ticket could be bought for a lump of coal, and a bottle of paraffin for a silk shirt.
In desperation, the Bavarian Prime Minister submitted a Bill to the Reichsrat proposing that gluttony be made a penal offence, his exact definition of a glutton being 'one who habitually devotes himself to the pleasures of the table to such a degree that he might arouse discontent in view of the distressful condition of the population'.Since its first publication in 1975, When Money Dies has become the classic history of these bizarre and frightening times.
http://www.amazon.com/When-money-dies-nightmare-collapse/dp/0718302141
Apparently Mayor Bloomberg of NYC is familiar with the actions of the Bavarian Prime Minister, although he hasn't been quite so bold yet.
"Reichsrat proposing that gluttony be made a penal offence"
If this passes Merkel is fucked, she did not get that big by eating salads with the G20 at 5 star hotels......
time to short the vix
not this time otto this is op ex day big down reversal after the jpm numbers sink in those buying here look out.
or not. robo robo robo we know your short it's our little secret.
I dont know how many here heeded my advice (why shud any1 :) )...again write it down...commodities have bottommed in my puny opinion...go buy silver ...rejoice...so finally i m back to silver n gold bugs camp :)..im just a asshole trader...cudn;t care less about any news or opinion:).....again i love this place for its very informative news both relevant for pure trades as well as informational........
In case you are interested in anything remotely to do with Indian markets.....
www.bubbleshort.blogspot.in
Da big dump is lined up for Monday!!
This is the usual ramp up to get rid of weak shorts and suck in a few hopefuls.
This is just like the ramp up exercise the last few days where the market was ramped up at end of day only to be eviscerated overnight.
This time the ramp is stronger and started earlier in preparation for Monday.
The key other markets that move somewhat like the DOW and SPX are tracing a clear ABC up of major degree. I am talking about COPPER, the DAX and OIL.......
The SPX dump over the next couple of weeks should be at least 50 points and more than likely 80 to a 100.
Equity rally can resume as overbought USDX daily & weekly chart commences overdue retracement while EURUSD selling ceases for now. This results in SPX / DOW choppy weekly charts reverting to neutral.
This remains a constant and will not change:
* USDX monthly indicators [ie big picture] continue to warn of significant long term USD upside. (thus EURUSD & AUDUSD etc bearish)
* SPX monthly indicators [ie big picture] continue to warn of significant long term downside for equities which will be worse than 2008.