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Hopium Tank On Empty
While headlines may evoke underlying strength (despite a slowing China, underlying employment indices lagging, and rising-price concerns growing) the expectations of our elite economists has once again extrapolated, Birinyi-style, a self-sustaining recovery to infinity and beyond. Unfortunately, economic data is disappointing in the last few weeks relative to expectations as the Citi Economic Surprise Indicator drops to three-month lows. It appears to us that the economic data in the US, driven up in the (cyclical) short-term by tax cuts, fuel cost drops, and very recently the warm weather according to Morgan Stanley, is set to repeat the 2008 pattern as ECRI data did not confirm the improvement. The mean-reversion in the Citi ECO index suggests at best a significant slowing in equity performance but more likely a negative return in the three-months ahead. It would appear that our hopium-filled expectations have once again become unsustainable.
3 month performance of the S&P 500 tracks very closely with the reverting process of over-optimism and over-pessimism that is exhibited by our analyst elite. The Citi ECO index has dropped to three month lows as even good data is already priced in and our animal spirits are dashed.
Typically the ECRI and Citi ECO index track one another in a confirmatory manner. This did not happen in 2008 (and we know how that ended) and is furthermore not happening this time. With Citi ECO now rolling over, it seems perhaps ECRI was onto something.
Charts: Bloomberg
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"It would appear that our hopium-filled expectations have once again become unsustainable."
Tyler.....clearly your IV has slipped out and you're off the hopium drip.
Emergency at the Tyler residence. All units respond to a Code Blue...stat.
I am sure many undercover officers watching drug users are tempted to sneak a little product. Did Tyler sneak a little?
Ron Paul To Ben Bernanke: "People Lose Trust In The Government Because You Lie To Them About [X]"
Billions of liquidity will distort the market picture, which is exactly what Obama wants.
ObaMao sure doesnt want $5 gas avg on election day and thats right where we're headed.
Ben, put that in your hopium pipe and smoke it.
1 dose of 'QE3' Hopium I.V. drip on the way, STAT!
hopium tank isn't empty! It is filled to hilt, with steamin turds.
"Tyler.....clearly your IV has slipped out and you're off the hopium drip."
Just give Tyler a bit ole glass of Green Shoots Lime Kool-Aid...
The one that says "With extra Hopium and Vitamin C" on the package...
hopium wars still being engaged and won daily on the msm.
hail to the chief.
Hail to the CREEP...
Committee to RE-Elect the POS...
Load that into the Teleprompter, bitchez...
ECRI > Government data FTW
Hopium, in the face of reality, is for dopiums.
I'm still not shorting. If I only catch the short wave half way to the bottom then fine by me. My undies are still on fire from the last attempt.
Is "catching half the short wave" like "digging half a hole"?
You might need some kevlar undergarments if your going to market-time in this manufactured environment. Just sayin'...
You are CORRECT. The markets are a joke. So the question is this. Which way has the joke been played? Who is the benefactor of market elevation? With the ZH article of Central Bank's buying equities last week I think the ponzi powers recognize that there is not much money left on the part of the bulls to keep the markets going higher. Look at the DOW. It's running out of steam. Thus *poof* here comes the CB friends of the Bernank in the face of EU, Oil, and other headwinds willing to buy equities. My short play outside of NY based trades is called "The Stack".
Take a look at this article by Carl Swenlin.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/rydex-asset-leve...
This data is what I have been wondering about for some time now. It is my opinion that the vast majority of this rally has been based on utilization margin accounts by all the various financial funds and not much from the "optical" central bank support. This in my opinion is confirming what the ECRI and ECO index are pointing at.
Here we go, bears are out of the pen!
The brewing bubble in higher education – in 2000 student debt made up 3 percent of all household debt. Today it has doubled to 7.5 percent and has grown by 511 percent in the last decade.http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
Well, surely The Bernank can loan Obummer a little more?
Wow, $7 trillion in 'liquidity' in the last 4 months secretly flooded into central banks around the world, and THIS is all we get? Whats on deck for the next 4 months then, $14 trillion liquidity injections and $200 oil?
Exactly. That money will flow. Count on it.
Exactly. Ctrl+P. Stocks won't go too far down before Obama/Geitner/Bernanke goose things. I keep expecting more people to realize the official government stats are meaningless at best, criminally manipulated at worst, but continue to be surprised at how easily distracted and misled the public is.
Wow, $7 trillion in 'liquidity' in the last 4 months secretly flooded into central banks around the world
Let me fix:
Wow, at least $7 trillion in 'liquidity' in the last 4 months secretly flooded into central banks around the world
this trend is definitely against the sp500.
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/