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Horrible News For Goldbugs - Paulson Is Bullish On Gold Again; Next - Roubini?
We wish we had good news, but we are not going to lie: This is the worst possible news for any gold bull out there.
From Bloomberg:
Gold traders are getting more bullish after billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy the metal as protection against inflation caused by government spending.
“By the time inflation becomes evident, gold will probably have moved, which implies that now is the time to build a position in gold,” New-York based Paulson said in a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. Armel Leslie, a spokesman for Paulson, declined to comment.
The 56-year-old manager’s SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 15 percent in the fourth quarter as his $23 billion hedge fund company had its worst-ever year. His Advantage Plus Fund lost 51 percent in 2011, and the firm said in a third-quarter letter that financial services companies were the “primary drag.” Paulson became a billionaire in 2007 by betting against the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Gold rose 10 percent last year in New York trading, an 11th consecutive annual gain.
And so the Paulson overhang is back. Couldn't Paulson just go ahead and buy Bank of America or some other worthless biohazard again?All that remains is for Roubini to say he prefers gold over spam (and always has, he was merely "misunderstood") and the crash will be imminent.
Or perhaps we will learn following the next $1000 up move in gold that Gartman will have been long gold in Vietnamese Dong.
Well, at least cheap entry points will be available.
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Well, at least he's "transparent."
This is troubling. But, luckily I bought the bulk of mine a long time ago.
There is always the 'broken clock' theory with him. Best I can hope for.
Roger that,Roger!
"What's your vector Victor?"
"Give me a clearance, Clarence..."
Better chance of Gartman having a Long Gold Vietnamese Dong some where else!
It just dawned on me how this will play out and, as weird as the world has been getting, it makes perfect sense. Paulson, now bullish on gold, will be simultaneously proven correct and have his biggest loss yet.
How will this happen? While his call on gold will be correct, his investment will be in GLD. He's not buying metal, he's buying promises. His assumption that the system will continue to function normally has blinded him to the actual underlying reason that gold is a good investment: it is real.
The value of GLD depends upon the integrity of a chain of promises, and the breaking of any of these promises puts the value of GLD at risk. Gold, on the other hand, doesn't depend upon the promises of anyone, nor does it depend upon the integrity of anyone other than an assayer. In fact, being long physical gold is like shorting the honesty and integrity of Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, the City of London, and Vichy DC.
Paulson will lose his ass when the prices of gold and GLD decouple. Gold will skyrocket, and Paulson will be stuck holding unredeemable paper promises backed by vaporized gold.
+ 1
Very good!
FOFOA-like even...
fofoa.blogspot.com
Well, for now GLD vs spot gold shows:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p99096604499
a pretty accurate overlay. Ratio shows:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:gld&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p99096604499
steady 10.28 to 10.3x GLD = gold spot
so while I fully expect GLD one day to fail while gold spot (real physical) goes up...
http://comparegoldprices.com/
for the time being I expect that if gold makes big swings up or down then options on GLD will still return big. IN particular I'd say a GLD call more than 100 days out or a GLD strangle 60 to 90 days out ought to do OK. What harm can it do to put in 1 to 3 contracts each in that position... just to see how it turns out.
http://flic.kr/p/bpJpXX future projection model for gold spot
Ever seen a grown man nekkid?
shirley you can't be serious?
I'll be more nervous when Robot Trader finally goes long.
He never "goes" anything, he'll just claim he was long all along.
Long Dong.....Vietnamese of course.
"Dong ? No dong. We trade in ROK won, exclusively."
Bang Dae-Ho, CFA
"No mowr yankee on my wanky..." - Long Duck Dong
Wha? huh?
Ha ha! + another one for the Turd!
And I'll be worried about what's happening at Megiddo when Nadler finally gets bullish...
you know....gold doesn't look so bad right now......., he he, nah just teasing you boys
Gold to 300 by year end!!!!
Aren't I right Akak?
I thought it would be down to $5.00 or so, you know, the cost of getting it out of the ground.
Did Johnny Bravo ever finish college?
stop calling me Shirley, and we're on instruments
Of course I'm serious... and stop calling me Shirley
I picked the wrong day to stop sniffin glue
I am serious and dont call me shirley !
Yes, I am serious. and don't call me shirley. John P would be good. or Mabel
I haven't felt this sick since the Anita Bryant concert...
Oh yes he is... and stop calling him Shirley!
Even a blind sow can find an acorn once in awhile.
a best friend's mother-in-law makes $73 hourly on the computer. She has been laid off for 6 months but last month her income was $14399 just working on the computer for a few hours. Go to this web site and read more .... LazyCash9.com
Gold is the new appl 2's and 20 baby!
ARRRGghhhhhh me gold dubloons just got a curse from Davey Jones hisself!
Not the Hedges very own Davey Jones! Say it ain't so!
</sarc>
Soros is selling his gold!
I thought he sold it last year...
to his left hand
It was an arm's length transaction
Lol
Short gold, go long dong silver.
get up and go, got up and went.....
No one even dares to believe that he could be on the right track.....after knowing his short term track record. But: could he be correct?
Someone needs to pass the memo to Paulson that gold isn't "backed" by anything...
that's the signal to go long USD.Yes I know it's shit, but it's (for now at least) the best horse in the glue factory.
... the tallest midget
"the leper with the most fingers..." (thanks Max Keiser)
or...the floater as everything else goes down the toilet first...
The hooker with crabs, rather than AIDS.
BTFD!
UGHHHHH. Unless.... He's realised that everyone on ZH does the oppopsite of what he says hence time to reverse trading strategy. BUY BUY BUY
Hmm, is it time to abandon ZH? You know it couldn't last.
Just set my stops.
I'm pretty sure the flock will be able to put a positive spin on this.
I like the part where they show you the 1 hour chart and scream bubble after the fixing.
go for arts
Look how complacent this market is. Greece..who gives a shit. Oil....who gives a shit....
I thought Paulson only sold his GLD so he could buy physical. I guess that is not true?
Barbarian!
Someone got hungry for Au-crunchies! :>D
Seeing Paulson's failures, whoever behaves as if he or she knows what they are doing, including some ass braggers on this blogg, should be ashamed of themselves.
Suggestion: Go for a colonoscopy.
This is GREAT news! My acquisition rate is headed up.
i dont think he ever stopped being bulllish. he just was thinking 2 steps ahead and market was at 1 step ahead and he had margin calls
Does that mean that everything I have been reading here was wrong and the only reason why I should buy gold was that Paulson was selling his? I thought that gold was good for the exact reason explained by Paulson today.
Tongue and cheek my man. When asset prices roll over gold will go with it, for a time anyway. Maybe he's calling the top in the equity market?
CRAP! I'm selling it all for Apple stock.
Only the best investors waited for it to get over 500 before buying because that's like a milestone that proves it's going up.
Every dog has its day.
This might be bad news for gold, in the short term anyway. When everybody is becomes bullish on gold, or anything else, it's probably time to step back and reasses your next moves.
Either way, I'm long silver since I bought all of mine at $12-15/oz back in the '07-'08 era. I'm too poor for gold.
I wish I bought more back when... But I guess we can expect a correction now, can´t we?
Sure! Expect a correction, in anything but stocks from here on out.
Is it ok to say
"Fuck Gold & Silver"
O_0
Not around here. You'll have down-votes before you can say "holy phizzical Batman!"
just for this post Blu :)
Yes....but it's a bit like wearing and eye-patch on the public rail system...
You may wake up in a road-side ditch.
Don't wake up in a road-side ditch....keep some gold and silver in your portfolio
don't have a grandchild with a dog collar...
double good!
Q: Is it ok to say "Fuck Gold & Silver"
A: As long as you follow proper Fight Club etiquette and say "Fuck Gold & Silver," bitchez.
Shit! Fuck!
Gold induced Tourette's Syndrome?
Well then I am off to the sushi bar for a ceremonial dram of sake before committing ritual sepuku in the center of the nearest intersection.
Just kidding. I'm going on a bike ride.
don't drink & ride...
Go ahead, you have 0.0 liability.
He will buy his gold...but his investments in Greeceor whatever will fall flat...so he will have to sell again to cover his loses
"Gold is a bubble....and the bull market in gold is over" -Larry Kudlow
He never really did quite understand the true meaning of a "GOLD-i-locks" economy, did he?
Hey, Paulson merely got a brainwave. Every idiot has his good moments.
Even a blind squirrel catches a nut sometimes.
only 'cause they're easier for the cats to catch
Correction ahead or perhaps demise of the paper market. Things do seem to be progressing nicely.
This COULD be the one time he is right.
After all, it means even Paulson is now giving up on the Ponzi. And my guess is he knows a person or two with some insight into how close we might be.....
I will get scared when he buys real bullion and takes posession of the metal.
How do we know that he has not bought physical?
"The 56-year-old manager’s SPDR Gold Trust holdings..."
That does not sound like bullon to me.
Eat yer bullion! :>D
gold has had a nice rally but its do for a retracement. let it come down to $1600-$1650 range and buy hand over fist
You may be right, or wrong - time will tell. By the way, the word is "due", not "do".
John NADLER say's Au is likely heading abck down to 1250.00 1400.00 range.
So, We stay in a holding pattern awaiting the EU, if it falls apart, he may be correct.................on the fiat price.
Good luck buying any at that price.
Doo
One component of double Doo.
*Spelling Police & DHS approved.
I.m long on food now.
Me too. Plus PM.
....and bullets.
They always forget the bullets.
Please Tyler, the word "Goldbug" is derogatory. You should know better.
How about..... Gold Stallions! Yea, that's better.
Gold Cocks: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gallo_de_corral_(view_large).jpg
Bugs will be on this planet long after the homo sapiens and stallions are dust.
Goldbugs survive.
I like to think of myself as a survivor.
Those are called Cockroaches, I like the 3 inch ones that hiss into your palm.
Cash... Its whats for dinner. Thats all Papa John pizza accepts
Never mind the fact that the cheese was made in a motel bathtub.
"Papa John's. Better bathtubs. Better pizza."
ahhh Friday Jack and gold!
I'm here by renoucing my yellow fever religion!
Which all-knowing, all-powerfull bubble do I praise to now!?!? Aaaahahahahahah.....
Another way to look at this is that even Paulson finally gets it.
Post claims "Paulson is bullish on gold again". Incorrect. Correct headline would be "Paulson STILL bullish on gold".
This is correct. I remember when Paulson started loading up on gold because it was the catalyst that got me into gold. It was when gold was around $700/ounce and all of a sudden it came out that paulson had built a $5 billion position in gold. Everyone else reading here, including Tyler Durden, clearly have a very short term memory. Paulson's biggest position has been gold for at least 3 years now.
He had to sell because He had bet the farm on banks and had to cover the loses with the winnings from gold. He is running a hedge fund after all. He can start multi-billion dollar position which will also call more money. For me, it is just another log in the fire. PAGE another log. Bernake another log.
At this point, It feels like all the big boys can do is try to control the ascend of PM. I am surprised with all the smacking they did this week plus USD "strength" that PM didn't get slammed into nothing. There must be some strong and patient hands at this point.
Maybe someone has discovered the philosophers stone and gold will become as plentiful as water.
My plans to take over the world have been shot to hell.
Oh well...
Long weekend to drown my dashed plans in cheap beer and fried foods...
Yup, woe unto those holding paper gold or silver.
a broken clock is telling the right time twice with 86,400 chances per day. Or 1440 chances with no second hand.
Flip a coin and its 1:1 for ever.
feel better now?
The next time (if it happens) that Silver gets below 30 (there could be a monkey-hammer around options expiry, it might be 1 week from today) I am going all-in on silver. My last 10 pounds was lost in one of those increasingly common boating accidents.
10 punds is like 145 ounces which is like $4500 only.
C'mon man you can do much better this time.
I will not disclose any actual holdings on a public blog...
Dire news indeed. I guess I better go back to buying up Greek debt then...
.
Paper? Who gives a shit?
Is it stock options expiry Friday today ?
Never mind...........back to watching the paper shills on Faux Business ! (with the exception of the "Judge")
Srsly? YUH FIYAD!
Oh I see-the show was cancelled but the judge remains. Here's something I thought was a little strange regarding the incident:
Stop sending Fox emails
until i see all the corner shops start selling all the gold they been buying, then i will sell/
Them and Craiglist.
Buy Gold in Euro's?
Something really funny ... a quote by the very pompous Dennis Gartman.
He had recently been touting how "we are bullish Gold and thus shall buy Gold in Euro's" ... who in the world talks like this, much less thinks it's impressive "doing so"?...
Not a fan of Dennis Gartman, as he has had a mediocre track record at the very best, who for years has talked down to his despised Gold bugs and belittled anyone and everyone who spoke of Gold as money.
According to him, Gold was always just another commodity though he has softened his insults recently as ...obvious...has become even obvious to him. Mr. Gartman has represented the epitome of all those who have talked down to and belittled hard money advocates who just happened to be right all along.
They were right for ALL the right reasons! The fact that CNBC has him on as a regular should tell you all you need to know.
His statement "we shall buy Gold in Euro's" is asinine. What he is trying to say, he thinks the Euro will underperform the Dollar so he wants the extra kicker that the Euro will drop versus Gold faster than with Dollars. His statement is asinine because in order to "buy Gold in Euro's" you must do it with some sort of contract somewhere, somehow. He could of course short Euro's versus Dollars and then go out and buy real physical Gold. This is not what he is talking about, he is speculating by purchasing contracts for Gold based in Euro's. When you buy Gold you give a currency for payment whether it be Dollars, Euro's Yen, Pounds or Rubles. Whenever you consumate the trade and give payment, you are no longer in posession of your fiat currency, you have shorted whatever currency you paid in.
The most important thing is what he misses, OWNING ounces!
Going one step further, MF Global should have taught Mr. Gartman one thing if nothing else, there is risk in holding a contract.
Your Gold may not exist that is represented, your broker can go bankrupt, the exchange can go bankrupt amongst these lessons ... just ask Gerald Celente.
Dennis Gartman is NOT buying Gold in Euro's. Buying Gold is giving a fiat currency or something of value, in exchange for the real metal.
You either own the Gold or you don't.
When the current fraudulent fiat episode ends, it won't matter whether you paid for your ounces in Dollars, Euros or livestock. What will matter is how many ounces you have, period.
He is a speculator. He is trading in and out to make a profit. This profit will be held in what? More fiat currency of course!
The profit will be held in a fiat account until he is ready to strike again. He has given some lip service to "everyone should have 3-5% of their portfolio in Gold" ... GLD anyone! He hasn't made the leap to understanding that should he not have leap at the right time, he is out and it may be at the wrong time. Not to mention having to rely on his precious contracts to perform during a period of high stress and default.
It is this mindset of trading that will eventually boost real physical Gold and Silver out of the statosphere. If 100 claims on Gold exist for every one real ounce of Gold, there will be a lot of naked longs out there.
For every naked short there is a naked long even if the long doesn't know it.
It doesn't matter that the long is in the dark and has no idea he really isn't long...until it does!
Once it does matter, will this naked long want to replace his naked position with something real. Maybe they will not only want to replace it, but replace it with ALL the nearly worthless fiat that they have left. This, while anyone who is really long is having thoughts of NEVER parting with one real ounce because the market place of nakedness is demonstrating just how rare and valuable their one ounce really is.
It is this one simple concept that the famous mouthpieces for the fiat establishment just do not understand, Gold IS money. It always ...for 5,000 years... has been and always will be.
So the next time you hear some important sounding CNBC talking muppet yell fire telling you that "cash is king" and time to "move to cash", please understand that they don't understand shit from Shinola.
www.lemetropolecafe.com
Actually, Gartman is long gold in any currency that it happened to do well in that day. But he is short gold in any currency that it did badly in that day.
Did Paulsdumb actually buy physical or just piss out of his mouth? Big difference.
Gold will top will someone finally releases a gold backed currency to trade oil and other commodities.
Paulson owns a unicorn that shits gold turds - its magic just like everything about Paulson.
That Roubini used to be a trustworthy fellow until he began selling his company. Then he went from Dr. Doom to The Parrot of Wall Street.
You guys are so cruel. First Paulson was a genius, now he's a fuckup. Whitney is a genius, then she's a fuckup. Now he agrees with you, he still must be wrong.
If you're talking about Whitney Tilson, he is a man.
As much money as he manages, if he buys bullion, and mining stocks instead of ETFs, that are managed to hold prices down, his call will be a self fufilling prophesy. It might even break the ETFs by proving that there isn't enough bullion available for them to grow any more.
I don't remember Paulsen ever being bearish on gold.
Read this for a dose of how the gold market really is controlled...
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_gold02a.htm
The Black gold story does not pass my likelihood test. For there to be even hundreds of hidden tons one must believe that some folks could mine in secret what big companies with tons of high explosives and huge bulldozers have been unable to do in the open with lots of encouragement.
For starters, he's been long gold for a LONG time Tyler(s) and even with the 51% shit kickin' he took last year, his annualized returns are still at a minimum over double that of anyone on this site, net of management fees and incentive fees.
Any takers?
If you have over 100,000 shares of GLD you are big enough to have an Authorized Participant do a redemption for you. This make GLD nearly the same as physical for those with over $17mil in the ETF. For the rest of us it is just betting on the price of gold. GLD can also be a way of protecting against huge drops (by buying Puts) should all confidence flee the market. This could happen when folks realize that unless you have the gold in your hand it might not be yours....think MFGlobal...think a failure at COMEX...
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.
www.usdebtclock.org
That is all you need to know, to know that Gold is headed much, much, much, much higher.
Period!
Gold could lose $40/oz in the course of a days trading. I don't think Silver could lose $40/oz in the course of a days trading. Gold is a headache.
It's like that giant headline saying GEORGE SOROS SELLS ALL OF HIS GOLD.
But no one in the comments neither the article itself asked or specified WHAT TYPE OF GOLD IT IS.
Is it ETF's backed by air or physical?
I think we all know the answer...
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