This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Hours Ahead Of Monday's Euro FinMin Meeting There Is No Greek Deal; IIF "Remains Hopeful"

Tyler Durden's picture


But wait, we thought Greece and the ECB had an upper hand? Wouldn't they exercise said upper hand by now, considering its now 9pm in Greece on a Sunday, the day before the critical European finmin meeting by which point the Greek deal was supposed to be in place?

From Reuters:

Greece's private creditors are working closely with Athens on a debt swap deal, their chief negotiator said on Sunday, adding that he was confident a deal could be reached.


"We are at a crossroads and I remain quite hopefull," International Institute of Finance chief Charles Dallara told Antenna TV on Sunday.


Greece and its private creditors are converging towards a deal but many details are still unresolved, sources close to the negotiations said during the weekend. Much of the attention will now turn to a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, and to how EU states and the IMF view the progress in the debt swap talks.


Much of the attention will now turn to a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, and to whether EU states and the IMF consider that the deal that is being put together by Athens and bankers does put Greece's debt back on a sustainable track. One key question will be whether the deal attracts a big enough participation rate.


"We are working together with the Greek government, European and global leaders and we can mobilise very very high participation," Dallara said.

And here is the FT:

Private owners of Greek debt have made their “maximum” offer for the losses they are willing to accept, the bondholders’ lead negotiator has said, implying that any further demands could kill off a “voluntary” deal and trigger a default.


Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, said in an interview that he remained “hopeful and quite confident” the two sides could reach a deal that would prevent a full-scale Greek default when a €14.4bn bond comes due on March 20.


One banker said Friday’s demand by official creditors, led by the International Monetary Fund, for a further interest rate cut of 50 basis points on new long-term bonds to be swapped for existing Greek debt “may have put a voluntary deal out of reach”.


“I think its clear we are at the limits of a voluntary deal,” Mr Dallara said, recalling that eurozone heads of state had committed to keeping the restructuring voluntary at a high-stakes EU summit in October. “It is clear to me we are at a crossroads.”

As we noted last night, Hedge Funds are just hoping for litigation. Scratch that, praying.

Too bad hold out hedge funds with a blocking stake can't pay their LPs with hope. In the meantime, the EURUSD is not happy to start the Sunday session.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 01/22/2012 - 14:56 | 2086740 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

They're playing beer pong in there?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2086746 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Thong pong is more like it.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:09 | 2086772 Michael
Michael's picture

Just tell me how much Greek debt will be discharged.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:55 | 2086854 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Ok.  If they default, all of it.  If they hyperinflate, none of it.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:06 | 2086870 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

If they go to war, they win.

Mon, 01/23/2012 - 00:10 | 2087586 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They want the private holders of the debt to take at minimum 50 percent to 70 percent in the value of their bonds.  I've said this before, why would any bond holder who has been paying insurance premiums on the bonds they hold not decide to hold out and say we will wait for the credit event and then get our 100 percent paid on the bond.  They don't care if the insurance companies may or may not have the money, this is being done to force the govt. to backstop this regardless of their local politics.  Unless they want an implosion of the bond market.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:14 | 2086781 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

ECB needs a Greek hand job-

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:19 | 2086789 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why not?
It's only 11:59:59
There's still time...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:38 | 2086819 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

...playing beer pong...

'sooner or later, all our games turn into Calvinball'

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:48 | 2086941 mattu13048
mattu13048's picture

Useful idiots! Let's just trade, man! 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:01 | 2086744 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Smoke and mirrors, hope and change, hookers and blow, shooting blanks ---  call it what it is, it is bullshit to me.  No deal, the official start of the EU sinking.   The hedge funds will extort their money out the these pricks one way or another or by triggering CDS.  Popcorn time!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2086770 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Maybe they are busy setting up the deck chairs on the Costa Concordia....a fine luxury yacht !

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:57 | 2087357 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Is the band warmed up, yet?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2086748 roy10
roy10's picture

There a WSJ article that explains what's going on:

I think the key sentence in the article is that Greece would not be allowed to default no matter what and if there is no agreement, the 14.5B Euro bonds will be redeemed at par.

If that’s true, why would anybody agree to a deal? They are better off delaying.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:02 | 2086755 ekm
ekm's picture

Any "solution" that does not involve a loss, is idiotic, mathematically impossible. Somebody has got to lose.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:30 | 2086805 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

The German people and the Greek people will lose.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2086807 roy10
roy10's picture

The trillion dollar question is who will take the loss?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:44 | 2086836 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The Greek people without a doubt. The only question is really: will they take the pain or retaliate and try to dish it out to where it came from.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:06 | 2086872 roy10
roy10's picture

If the Greek people could take the losses, we would not be having this dicussion. The problem is that the losses are beyond their capacity, so somebody other than the Greeks will need to take a loss.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:35 | 2087321 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Exactly. The Greek people are even abandoning children because they cannot feed them. These guys are tapped out. Greece needs to do an Iceland and see You in court bankers.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2086749 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Won't they just delay the meeting? Since  the bond payment isn't due until march.

Lots of time to talk, fight, eat and drink, bunga bunga.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2086762 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

This restructuring/haircuts would require a massive amount of paperwork to finalize and it will require 6-7 weeks to complete.  So time is of the essence, or Greece's bond payment of 14.5 billion Euros on March 20th will be for naught.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:08 | 2086874 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

EXACTLY! Let's Bunga Bunga first....

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:02 | 2086751 Everyman
Everyman's picture

I hope the Christ this damn thing blows up in their faces.  I mean, REALLY, how many "meetings" and "fixes" can they do, that haven't worked, and they are still in a helluva pickle??? At what point do they pull calculators out and say "see this isn't gonna work, we can't get there from here."  Stuff the rest of us have already figured out and accepted, and positioned for is beyond the "enlightened and intelligent economic elite".


I will pray that reality unfolds tonight and we get that "new start" and banks can take it up the ass for their stupidity!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2086768 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

They're holding it together with rubber bands and chewing gum. 

Behind the scenes they know the inescapable truth, that this experiment will result in failure. It's not their job to tell the truth to us, it's their jobs to manage expectations, and to manage sentiment. They're not just gona' come out on the telley, throw their arms up, and say "sorry we're all fucked, this thing is over" They will lie, disseminate misinformation, and distract for, and to the end. It's just part of the job.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:12 | 2086777 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

At the same time...someone should be investigating or checking their vacation schedules...maybe if no one is there when SHTF then it will be a "non event".  Check the vacancies in those vacation hotels where those 'leaders' go when they want to get away from it all...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2086808 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"holding it together with rubber bands and chewing gum"

- don't forget about that roll of duct tape they always keep behind their back.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:09 | 2086875 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Bilderberg hotel  in NL is booked solid.


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:04 | 2087131 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

MacGyver in Europe

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:46 | 2086937 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Ponzi maintenance only requires looking ahead 24 hours.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:01 | 2086753 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I needs to gets me some of dem 1 year bonds with the 475% yield if this deal goes through. -:)

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2086756 russwinter
russwinter's picture


Except that Germany and the IMF are backing Greece in calling for the extra haircut. 

The fact the IMF and ECB may be exempt from the haircut makes the debt reduction for Greece completely inadeqaute, another mere stop gap and bad precedent.


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:06 | 2086765 roy10
roy10's picture

They are doing something very odd - on one hand they are demanding more concessions and on the other they are saying they will not allow a default. How do those coincide? How can you ask for concessions without a credible threat?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:14 | 2086780 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Negotiations are so exciting !!  Also those 1/3 share blocking hedge funds will also need to be some point in this fiasco.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:25 | 2086798 roy10
roy10's picture

I think we're giving far too much weight to the Hedge Funds. They can litigate it for 10 years for all the EU cares. Greece is not going back to the markets in this decade.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2086828 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Germany won't let the ECB buy soveriegn bonds.

So where will they find lenders?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:53 | 2086851 roy10
roy10's picture

Same place that they got it from in the last year - EFSF, ESM, IMF.

BTW - LOL @ the ECB not buying sovereign bonds. Check their balance sheet $250B in bonds and growing (and I didn’t even mention the 400B LTRO).

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:19 | 2086894 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

You can breathe the desperation at the euro-meetings.  As Chi-Pan has also refused to buy junk eurobonds, there is no one left to pick up those fraudulent promises to pay but for Mr. Ponzi himself. Thus the endless parade of "stability mechanisms" being drawn out from the sleeves of the euro-oligarchs.

The fact that the sheeple are completely and absolutely ignorant of what awaits them is working to the benefit of the rapist class.

History repeating itself.


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:36 | 2086925 roy10
roy10's picture

Pretty much. There's nobody buying it other than Draghi and banks who are financed by Draghi. The ultimate Ponzi.

If Madoff was able to keep it up for 30 years, Draghi can survive just as long.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:58 | 2087355 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Worrying about stability when the rivets are popping loose on the wing root(s) -- go with throttle up!

It's like watching a gladitorial death match where the contestants are using rubber weapons...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:14 | 2086883 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Sounds like you're giving the EU too much weight if that's the case.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:38 | 2086929 roy10
roy10's picture


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:53 | 2087191 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Nice. Props to Chief Joseph. Another shocking example of the murder hungry US' corruption via military force. A truly horrible event.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2086761 ekm
ekm's picture

Listen, assume people accept by phone everything. And then what? They've got to go to the company boards and sell the deal and if the boards accept it then they will get lawyers involved and sign papers.

Are we all stupid or what? Nothing will be tackled today or tomorrow. It's all smoke and mirrors.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:28 | 2086802 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Are we all stupid or what?


White house = Obummer

Iowa = Santorum

NH  =  Romney

SC   = Newt

Any more questions?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:10 | 2086774 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

C'mon hyperbole much?  0.005 lower.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:12 | 2086776 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So far...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:18 | 2086784 russwinter
russwinter's picture

This article at Big Picture infers that Greece is the problem and is just posturing to suck Germany and the IMF into more bailout funds. This seems to be the issue even more so than the hedge funds, who in truth are probably tag teaming with Greece for the same outcome. Coupon payments from Germany and the IMF now are huge pay offs.

Greece is quite happy to commit to a 4.0% coupon on the new bonds to be issued as part consideration for the the cancellation of the existing debt – they know that they will never meet their obligations and are only interested in accessing additional bail out funds, and ECB funding as long as possible. In addition, they realise that a default makes their banks, pension funds etc, etc totally insolvent. They will agree to anything on the basis that it sucks in the EU/Euro Zone/IMF further and postpones their inevitable default. 

The IMF and Germany are rightly concerned that the amount of the haircut currently proposed on private sector bondholders is insufficient to make Greece’s debt sustainable, a real problem for the IMF as it has to justify its continued participation in further bail out funds for Greece on the basis that the country’s debt will be sustainable – impossible given the current proposed “agreement”.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2086824 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture


Greece burns 400,000 barrels a day of Brent priced oil.  If you annualize that, it is 5% of GDP drained out each year.  There's no fix for this because They Have No Oil.

There is NO amount of debt that is sustainable.  Their GDP doesn't have a praryer of funding any debt at all when it has a perpetual 5%GDP/yr drain of money out of the country.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:20 | 2086896 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

The great Greek austerity and restructuring plan (final):


1. sell BMW's

2. saddle donkeys

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:03 | 2086951 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Greece is a key transit country and struck a pipeline deal with Russia and Bulgaria which may (?) have been the catalyst behind the previous PM undoing. Oil is probably not the issue as per tolling. Greece caught between NATO and Bondsteel.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:09 | 2086973 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Maybe they could convert all their vehicles to run off ouzo and olive oil.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:22 | 2086794 nasdaq99
nasdaq99's picture

Maybe the ECB is waiting on the market to puke out all/most of the Greek bonds, buy them, average their cost down & reissue new debt?  Create their own blocking stake.  Is that possible?  Why not at current prices?  Could this have been going on all along?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:32 | 2086810 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

yeah, if anyone buys. Plus what if the hedgies buy it up and blow raspberries at the ECB?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:25 | 2086799 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

"Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!"

"Bullwinkle, that trick never works!"


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:35 | 2086813 Manthong
Manthong's picture

How do you say "Now here's something you'll really like." in Greek?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:14 | 2086884 saints51
saints51's picture

signa herea anda geta fuckeda

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:26 | 2086907 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 20:33 | 2087247 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

More like fractured fairy tails than R&B.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:38 | 2086818 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Math is very simple, unless you depend on the peasants who pay your way.

Saturday quiz – January 21, 2011 – answers and discussion Posted on by bill

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

Question 1:

A program of fiscal austerity will always undermine attempts by the private domestic sector to reduce its indebtedness when the nation exports less than they import (including net income flows).

The answer is True.

Fact – when a nation exports less than they import (including net income flows) we say they have an external deficit (current account deficit).

This is a question about the sectoral balances – the government budget balance, the external balance and the private domestic balance – that have to always add to zero because they are derived as an accounting identity from the national accounts. The balances reflect the underlying economic behaviour in each sector which is interdependent – given this is a macroeconomic system we are considering.

To refresh your memory the balances are derived as follows. The basic income-expenditure model in macroeconomics can be viewed in (at least) two ways: (a) from the perspective of the sources of spending; and (b) from the perspective of the uses of the income produced. Bringing these two perspectives (of the same thing) together generates the sectoral balances.

From the sources perspective we write:

GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)

which says that total national income (GDP) is the sum of total final consumption spending (C), total private investment (I), total government spending (G) and net exports (X – M).

From the uses perspective, national income (GDP) can be used for:

GDP = C + S + T

which says that GDP (income) ultimately comes back to households who consume (C), save (S) or pay taxes (T) with it once all the distributions are made.

Equating these two perspectives we get:

C + S + T = GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)

So after simplification (but obeying the equation) we get the sectoral balances view of the national accounts.

(I – S) + (G – T) + (X – M) = 0

That is the three balances have to sum to zero. The sectoral balances derived are:

  • The private domestic balance (I – S) – positive if in deficit, negative if in surplus.
  • The Budget Deficit (G – T) – negative if in surplus, positive if in deficit.
  • The Current Account balance (X – M) – positive if in surplus, negative if in deficit.

These balances are usually expressed as a per cent of GDP but that doesn’t alter the accounting rules that they sum to zero, it just means the balance to GDP ratios sum to zero.

A simplification is to add (I – S) + (X – M) and call it the non-government sector. Then you get the basic result that the government balance equals exactly $-for-$ (absolutely or as a per cent of GDP) the non-government balance (the sum of the private domestic and external balances).

This is also a basic rule derived from the national accounts and has to apply at all times.

The following graph with accompanying data table lets you see the evolution of the balances expressed in terms of percent of GDP. I have held the external deficit constant at 2 per cent of GDP (which is artificial because as economic activity changes imports also rise and fall).

To aid interpretation remember that (I-S) > 0 means that the private domestic sector is spending more than they are earning; that (G-T) < 0 means that the government is running a surplus because T > G; and (X-M) < 0 means the external position is in deficit because imports are greater than exports.

Never let the idiots on TV try to convince you how math really works

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:13 | 2086880 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Interesting stuff, but what about the shadow economy ? Esp. countries with wellknown laissez faire fiscal discipline can't be measured by these formulas, when there is no data about the real input/output, right ? Quite a difficult job for the troika boys, I guess ..

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:20 | 2086899 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Well done, Atomizer. Austerity is a political tool. It's not meant to "fix" the economy. It will deepen the rift betewwen haves and have nots 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:30 | 2086913 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Now I need the ouzo.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2086829 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

They remain hopeful...but not changeful.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2086831 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Greek default will be a non-event. Mark my words.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:47 | 2086841 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Sure it will. What does your crystal ball say about the death of the CDS market?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:30 | 2087009 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

The sheeple will stick to their CDS's.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:58 | 2086858 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

The grand finale will be the day they tell us a 99.99% haircut isn't a default.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:02 | 2086862 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Greek default will be a non-event

You couldn't be more wrong. This is a giant fork in the road. It signals the end of the blanket bailout era, Bernanke's put under the whole system is off the table. 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:52 | 2087036 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

So in a few weeks we're gonna have the Total Collapse so many doomprophets have predicted? And will Kyle 'epic crisis' Bass finally make it to billionaire?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:32 | 2086917 roy10
roy10's picture

I agree.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:02 | 2086963 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Oh, Greece will default.  Carnage will ensue.  Germany will be blamed.  Problem, reaction, solution?  Well, Euroland of course.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:44 | 2086834 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Obama: "I need another 1.2 trillion".

If you didn't know before, you do now.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:04 | 2086866 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

They're lucky if they can figure out how to pay for the lunch, anything beyond that is wishful thinking...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:12 | 2086873 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

The boys are starting to argue at the playground.


As for the printing press .. what good does it do if all the banks do is deposit it at the ECB? The Money is not making it into circulation and is deflationary. This is a hoarding of Cash,  a large Bank Run.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:16 | 2086891 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Can you say vicious as in cycle? And can u say biflation? Because the answer will be to print and loosen monetary policy mroe

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:14 | 2086882 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The Super Mario Duo should reflect on Captain Francesco Schettino and his $800 million disaster since it reinforces German attitudes towards sharp-suited Italians and responsibility., especially as some of the missing are German. Little things like this tend to reinforce the idea of a nation playing fast and loose and expecting others rto "do their duty". I should think as a founder member of the European Union, Italy has no credibility in Northern Europe....but Monti knows that.....he is really begging for help like Karzai in Afghanistan, before the tribes rise up and kill him as the agent of a foreign power

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:22 | 2086902 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

According to NPR today...The Germans wanted the Euro to control inflation inside Germany...They weren't worried about a strong Deutchmark or their export markets or anything...

And we all wonder why we can't talk to our neighbors about these issues...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:30 | 2086912 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Please keep your eyes at stage left, on Newt Gingrich and Joe Paterno's corpse.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:48 | 2086942 laserjock
laserjock's picture

That dip in the Euro must be the anticipation of that huge EURUSD short squeeze we've been hearing so much about.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:05 | 2086961 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

More like a long squeeze is brewing, EUR/USD has a long way to go down before a short squeeze kicks in.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:12 | 2086980 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Don't worry, they'll ass fuck the shorts again.

How many times have they done this?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:39 | 2087021 howswave5workin...
howswave5workingforyou's picture

Look at Aussie$ and Basel 3 article in FT.....

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 17:55 | 2087040 lesterbegood
lesterbegood's picture

Hopium bonds and shaved heads all around.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 18:57 | 2087122 michaelsmith_9
michaelsmith_9's picture

A Greek deal is likely to get done, which likely will produce a short term pop higher for the markets.  However, we remain at a critical inflection point, but a bullish case can certainly be made as we are leaning more and more to as price action fails to break down.  A new Market Report has been posted with a look at the SPX, TNX, HG, CL, AUDUSD, and AAPL.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 20:38 | 2087251 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

It will only delay the inevitable. Economists from Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft calculated that a 80% haircut is the minimum required to have a chance ending the debt crisis - at least for Greece.

But a next Greece is on the way. Portugal looks not good and is even bigger than Greece.,1518,810645,00.html

If Portugal fails, Spain will fail.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:37 | 2087167 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

in a negotiation one never ought to declare or reveal a hard deadline: it gives your counterparty the scope to leverage everything hes got straight into your nuts. 

 the IIF is politely telling Greece/EU/IMF that they "can mobilize very very high participation"  is like saying " ... or very very high NON participation", its a stake raiser. 


Could also be a signal to the market /dumb money/semi dumb money to buy while they short everyones pants off... could also be..... oh fuck it. 


Eurofin to Venizelos: you got a deal?

Venizelos: No, you gonna gives us the money to make the march payment?

Eurofin to Venizelos: No:

Venizelos to Eurofin: Bye bye Europe, was nice while it lasted. 

Eurofin to venizelos: oh wait... maybe we could put in a bridging loan.. 

Venizelos to Eurofin: you guys are geniuses!! and maybe we can get the money back once we roll the 14>5bn bonds, do something retroactive!! 

Eurofin to Venlizeos: Sure with that out of the way there are many new possibilities to explore!!

Venizelos to Eurofin: Yeah whatever direction/options you want to explore them in, lets do that!!

Eurofin to Venizelos: Great idea! We'll start working on a working party to set up a working party to work on it.. 

Someone at the back *cough cough*  "What are we going to say to the ECB, the markets, the press...????" 

Eurofin and Venizelos together: " thats your job, draft something along the usual lines"


Eurofin to Venizelos, Venizelos to Eurofin walking out: "what a successful meeting! Great to see you , tell me.. how is your ... smile, smile " lots of flash phgotography......... 

Exclusives in the media under captions of smiling Eurofin ministers  "Eurofin and Greece make progress"









Sun, 01/22/2012 - 20:30 | 2087245 Everyman
Everyman's picture

You scare me with your knowledge of the future.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:11 | 2087410 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Eurofin and Venizelos together:  "That's your job, draft something along the usual lines."

IOW, "Round up the usual suspects!"

Mon, 01/23/2012 - 00:09 | 2087578 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

I can't figure whether this is more TV European daily soap opera, or old-style Saturday matinee 15 reel cliffhanger serial (only with 115 reels)...

Mon, 01/23/2012 - 03:37 | 2087991 forexnovaco
forexnovaco's picture

EU gapped down nicely. Maybe some good short there only thing conerning is the record short interest and that the weekly chart flipped bullish with a big divergenz. So lets see how it plays out.

Trade what you see not what you think. Ps my first post looking forward to many more. good trading today

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!