Hours Ahead Of Monday's Euro FinMin Meeting There Is No Greek Deal; IIF "Remains Hopeful"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

But wait, we thought Greece and the ECB had an upper hand? Wouldn't they exercise said upper hand by now, considering its now 9pm in Greece on a Sunday, the day before the critical European finmin meeting by which point the Greek deal was supposed to be in place?

From Reuters:

Greece's private creditors are working closely with Athens on a debt swap deal, their chief negotiator said on Sunday, adding that he was confident a deal could be reached.

 

"We are at a crossroads and I remain quite hopefull," International Institute of Finance chief Charles Dallara told Antenna TV on Sunday.

 

Greece and its private creditors are converging towards a deal but many details are still unresolved, sources close to the negotiations said during the weekend. Much of the attention will now turn to a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, and to how EU states and the IMF view the progress in the debt swap talks.

...

Much of the attention will now turn to a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, and to whether EU states and the IMF consider that the deal that is being put together by Athens and bankers does put Greece's debt back on a sustainable track. One key question will be whether the deal attracts a big enough participation rate.

 

"We are working together with the Greek government, European and global leaders and we can mobilise very very high participation," Dallara said.

And here is the FT:

Private owners of Greek debt have made their “maximum” offer for the losses they are willing to accept, the bondholders’ lead negotiator has said, implying that any further demands could kill off a “voluntary” deal and trigger a default.

 

Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, said in an interview that he remained “hopeful and quite confident” the two sides could reach a deal that would prevent a full-scale Greek default when a €14.4bn bond comes due on March 20.

 

One banker said Friday’s demand by official creditors, led by the International Monetary Fund, for a further interest rate cut of 50 basis points on new long-term bonds to be swapped for existing Greek debt “may have put a voluntary deal out of reach”.

 

“I think its clear we are at the limits of a voluntary deal,” Mr Dallara said, recalling that eurozone heads of state had committed to keeping the restructuring voluntary at a high-stakes EU summit in October. “It is clear to me we are at a crossroads.”

As we noted last night, Hedge Funds are just hoping for litigation. Scratch that, praying.

Too bad hold out hedge funds with a blocking stake can't pay their LPs with hope. In the meantime, the EURUSD is not happy to start the Sunday session.

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Sun, 01/22/2012 - 14:56 | 2086740 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

They're playing beer pong in there?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2086746 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Thong pong is more like it.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:09 | 2086772 Michael
Michael's picture

Just tell me how much Greek debt will be discharged.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:55 | 2086854 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Ok.  If they default, all of it.  If they hyperinflate, none of it.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:06 | 2086870 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

If they go to war, they win.

Mon, 01/23/2012 - 00:10 | 2087586 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They want the private holders of the debt to take at minimum 50 percent to 70 percent in the value of their bonds.  I've said this before, why would any bond holder who has been paying insurance premiums on the bonds they hold not decide to hold out and say we will wait for the credit event and then get our 100 percent paid on the bond.  They don't care if the insurance companies may or may not have the money, this is being done to force the govt. to backstop this regardless of their local politics.  Unless they want an implosion of the bond market.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:14 | 2086781 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

ECB needs a Greek hand job-   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g3tQaqizh0

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:19 | 2086789 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why not?
It's only 11:59:59
There's still time...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:38 | 2086819 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

...playing beer pong...

'sooner or later, all our games turn into Calvinball'

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:48 | 2086941 mattu13048
mattu13048's picture

Useful idiots! Let's just trade, man! http://bit.ly/jmgPLz 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:01 | 2086744 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Smoke and mirrors, hope and change, hookers and blow, shooting blanks ---  call it what it is, it is bullshit to me.  No deal, the official start of the EU sinking.   The hedge funds will extort their money out the these pricks one way or another or by triggering CDS.  Popcorn time!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2086770 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Maybe they are busy setting up the deck chairs on the Costa Concordia....a fine luxury yacht !

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:57 | 2087357 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Is the band warmed up, yet?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2086748 roy10
roy10's picture

There a WSJ article that explains what's going on:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120122-703236.html

I think the key sentence in the article is that Greece would not be allowed to default no matter what and if there is no agreement, the 14.5B Euro bonds will be redeemed at par.

If that’s true, why would anybody agree to a deal? They are better off delaying.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:02 | 2086755 ekm
ekm's picture

Any "solution" that does not involve a loss, is idiotic, mathematically impossible. Somebody has got to lose.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:30 | 2086805 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

The German people and the Greek people will lose.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2086807 roy10
roy10's picture

The trillion dollar question is who will take the loss?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:44 | 2086836 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The Greek people without a doubt. The only question is really: will they take the pain or retaliate and try to dish it out to where it came from.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:06 | 2086872 roy10
roy10's picture

If the Greek people could take the losses, we would not be having this dicussion. The problem is that the losses are beyond their capacity, so somebody other than the Greeks will need to take a loss.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:35 | 2087321 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Exactly. The Greek people are even abandoning children because they cannot feed them. These guys are tapped out. Greece needs to do an Iceland and see You in court bankers.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/8401306/families-abandon-kids-in-greek-debt-crisis

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2086749 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Won't they just delay the meeting? Since  the bond payment isn't due until march.

Lots of time to talk, fight, eat and drink, bunga bunga.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2086762 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

This restructuring/haircuts would require a massive amount of paperwork to finalize and it will require 6-7 weeks to complete.  So time is of the essence, or Greece's bond payment of 14.5 billion Euros on March 20th will be for naught.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:08 | 2086874 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

EXACTLY! Let's Bunga Bunga first....

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:02 | 2086751 Everyman
Everyman's picture

I hope the Christ this damn thing blows up in their faces.  I mean, REALLY, how many "meetings" and "fixes" can they do, that haven't worked, and they are still in a helluva pickle??? At what point do they pull calculators out and say "see this isn't gonna work, we can't get there from here."  Stuff the rest of us have already figured out and accepted, and positioned for is beyond the "enlightened and intelligent economic elite".

 

I will pray that reality unfolds tonight and we get that "new start" and banks can take it up the ass for their stupidity!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2086768 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

They're holding it together with rubber bands and chewing gum. 

Behind the scenes they know the inescapable truth, that this experiment will result in failure. It's not their job to tell the truth to us, it's their jobs to manage expectations, and to manage sentiment. They're not just gona' come out on the telley, throw their arms up, and say "sorry we're all fucked, this thing is over" They will lie, disseminate misinformation, and distract for as.long.as.possible, and to the end. It's just part of the job.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:12 | 2086777 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

At the same time...someone should be investigating or checking their vacation schedules...maybe if no one is there when SHTF then it will be a "non event".  Check the vacancies in those vacation hotels where those 'leaders' go when they want to get away from it all...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2086808 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"holding it together with rubber bands and chewing gum"

- don't forget about that roll of duct tape they always keep behind their back.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:09 | 2086875 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Bilderberg hotel  in NL is booked solid.

Time to OCCUPY ARNHEM.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:04 | 2087131 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

MacGyver in Europe

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:46 | 2086937 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Ponzi maintenance only requires looking ahead 24 hours.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:01 | 2086753 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I needs to gets me some of dem 1 year bonds with the 475% yield if this deal goes through. -:)

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2086756 russwinter
russwinter's picture

 

Except that Germany and the IMF are backing Greece in calling for the extra haircut. 

The fact the IMF and ECB may be exempt from the haircut makes the debt reduction for Greece completely inadeqaute, another mere stop gap and bad precedent.

 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:06 | 2086765 roy10
roy10's picture

They are doing something very odd - on one hand they are demanding more concessions and on the other they are saying they will not allow a default. How do those coincide? How can you ask for concessions without a credible threat?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:14 | 2086780 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Negotiations are so exciting !!  Also those 1/3 share blocking hedge funds will also need to be overcome...at some point in this fiasco.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:25 | 2086798 roy10
roy10's picture

I think we're giving far too much weight to the Hedge Funds. They can litigate it for 10 years for all the EU cares. Greece is not going back to the markets in this decade.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2086828 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Germany won't let the ECB buy soveriegn bonds.

So where will they find lenders?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:53 | 2086851 roy10
roy10's picture

Same place that they got it from in the last year - EFSF, ESM, IMF.

BTW - LOL @ the ECB not buying sovereign bonds. Check their balance sheet $250B in bonds and growing (and I didn’t even mention the 400B LTRO).

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:19 | 2086894 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

You can breathe the desperation at the euro-meetings.  As Chi-Pan has also refused to buy junk eurobonds, there is no one left to pick up those fraudulent promises to pay but for Mr. Ponzi himself. Thus the endless parade of "stability mechanisms" being drawn out from the sleeves of the euro-oligarchs.

The fact that the sheeple are completely and absolutely ignorant of what awaits them is working to the benefit of the rapist class.

History repeating itself.

 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:36 | 2086925 roy10
roy10's picture

Pretty much. There's nobody buying it other than Draghi and banks who are financed by Draghi. The ultimate Ponzi.

If Madoff was able to keep it up for 30 years, Draghi can survive just as long.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:58 | 2087355 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Worrying about stability when the rivets are popping loose on the wing root(s) -- go with throttle up!

It's like watching a gladitorial death match where the contestants are using rubber weapons...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:14 | 2086883 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Sounds like you're giving the EU too much weight if that's the case.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:38 | 2086929 roy10
roy10's picture

What?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 19:53 | 2087191 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Nice. Props to Chief Joseph. Another shocking example of the murder hungry US' corruption via military force. A truly horrible event.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2086761 ekm
ekm's picture

Listen, assume people accept by phone everything. And then what? They've got to go to the company boards and sell the deal and if the boards accept it then they will get lawyers involved and sign papers.

Are we all stupid or what? Nothing will be tackled today or tomorrow. It's all smoke and mirrors.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:28 | 2086802 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Are we all stupid or what?

 

White house = Obummer

Iowa = Santorum

NH  =  Romney

SC   = Newt

Any more questions?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:10 | 2086774 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

C'mon hyperbole much?  0.005 lower.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:12 | 2086776 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So far...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:18 | 2086784 russwinter
russwinter's picture

This article at Big Picture infers that Greece is the problem and is just posturing to suck Germany and the IMF into more bailout funds. This seems to be the issue even more so than the hedge funds, who in truth are probably tag teaming with Greece for the same outcome. Coupon payments from Germany and the IMF now are huge pay offs. 

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/oh-dear-greece-yet-again/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Greece is quite happy to commit to a 4.0% coupon on the new bonds to be issued as part consideration for the the cancellation of the existing debt – they know that they will never meet their obligations and are only interested in accessing additional bail out funds, and ECB funding as long as possible. In addition, they realise that a default makes their banks, pension funds etc, etc totally insolvent. They will agree to anything on the basis that it sucks in the EU/Euro Zone/IMF further and postpones their inevitable default. 

The IMF and Germany are rightly concerned that the amount of the haircut currently proposed on private sector bondholders is insufficient to make Greece’s debt sustainable, a real problem for the IMF as it has to justify its continued participation in further bail out funds for Greece on the basis that the country’s debt will be sustainable – impossible given the current proposed “agreement”.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2086824 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

dood

Greece burns 400,000 barrels a day of Brent priced oil.  If you annualize that, it is 5% of GDP drained out each year.  There's no fix for this because They Have No Oil.

There is NO amount of debt that is sustainable.  Their GDP doesn't have a praryer of funding any debt at all when it has a perpetual 5%GDP/yr drain of money out of the country.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 16:20 | 2086896 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

The great Greek austerity and restructuring plan (final):

 

1. sell BMW's

2. saddle donkeys

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