Houston, We Have A Coupling: US Macro Data Worst In Six Months

Tyler Durden's picture


Confirming the lack of decoupling in major developed economies (which we noted yesterday), US macro data (as tracked by Citigroup's ECO Surprise Index) has turned negative for the first time in six months. Having trended lower (i.e. missed expectations to the downside) for much of the last few months, this shift now puts aggregate US macro data in the deteriorating case and infers considerable risks of downside to equity prices in the next three months - or did Bernanke raise his put strike yesterday?

Chart: Bloomberg

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Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:26 | 2376968 SHEEPFUKKER

A "coupling" or a "cupping" as in the Bernanke cupping our balls and giving them a nice squeeze. 

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:28 | 2376977 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

I'll have the ECO Surprise with a side of green beans, please.  The measure seems to jump back and forth pretty regularly.. does it aggregate bra sales, gas prices, and box office sales???

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:29 | 2376979 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Maggot bernank will never allow his uber-wealthy friends to suffer.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:36 | 2377263 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

Little do they understand, he is fucking them gently now

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 14:28 | 2377452 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Actually, Bernanke is subsidizing the over-leveraged debt junkies with the blood, sweat, and tears of the honest, hardworking yet gullible people.

It's the grand illusion... a massive fleecing of those who follow rules !

Silly me, why do I keep following the rules , when Obama doesn't adhere to the constitution and Bernanke operates outside the constraints of the Federal Reserve Act (refer to "ECB Liquidity Swap").



Thu, 04/26/2012 - 17:04 | 2378065 brettd
brettd's picture

I keep wanting to short the Euro...

Then I realize that BB is going to dilute the dollar pari pasu with the euro (ECB liquidity swap).

What to do?  What to do?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:29 | 2376980 forward ho
forward ho's picture

Ignore reality at your own peril. if you make no choice, you still have.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:29 | 2376985 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The market must really be tanking....let me just log on to Scottrade....wait a minute...WTF?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:22 | 2377161 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I only say WTF when the market is moving in the direction it is suppossed to

They have to beat the shorts down so they can grab em at a good price before the SHTF


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:37 | 2376996 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Gomer Pyle: "Surprise surprise surprise."



Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:32 | 2377005 kralizec
kralizec's picture

I think Obumbler & Co can do worse...and I expect we'll see him try...

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 17:10 | 2378091 brettd
brettd's picture

BHO is already political toast.

The question remaining is how many Senate seats he's going to take down with him.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:33 | 2377013 youngman
youngman's picture

Even Bob Pissonme thought the markets should be down today....he gave the credit to Bernanke....and potential QE III

At least gold is up a little.....but that is probably the weaker dollar or something...in my mind there is 50 countries that should be buying Gold....

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:07 | 2377152 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

I think we are at the point of No printing = fiat failure, and gold goes higher.

                                       More printing = ponziconomy continuance, and gold goes higher.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 14:21 | 2377428 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I completely agree with that

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 15:45 | 2377782 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

I completely agree that I want that to happen.  Who the hell knows what's next anymore.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:35 | 2377022 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

The chart shown has about 5 peaks and 4 troughs, which reflect intermediate expectations about the economy.  These data seem to correlate with intermediate stock market trends.  Please continue to post this chart, expecially at or near what may be peaks or troughs.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:50 | 2377087 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

Tyler, the data IMPLIES, you "infer".

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:51 | 2377088 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Cabal cluster copulation. 

Otherwise known in it's derivative form, C3


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:56 | 2377110 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

at this stage no one knows because the rigging is more influential since 2009 and certainly 2011.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 12:59 | 2377122 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

It's interesting that economic activity has no effect on the market indexes anymore.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 17:15 | 2378120 brettd
brettd's picture

Perhaps contrarians are all that's left trading.  

In a world where profits are "evil greed" and

massive debt is "good" it's easy to see why 

everythings upside down.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:02 | 2377129 Roy T
Roy T's picture

It is amazing how little attention the unemployment claims jump of last week/couple of months has gotten on CNBC.  Instead we get to see all their kids waving at the camera.


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:22 | 2377207 q99x2
q99x2's picture


Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:24 | 2377215 chunga
chunga's picture

NY AP story 4/26/2012

Upturn in homes sales sends stocks slightly higher

"An index maintained by the National Association of Realtors to measure the number of people who signed contracts for homes rose to its highest level in nearly two years."

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:27 | 2377230 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Significant downside risk? Are you crazy? There is NO significant downside risk. Only the warm cocoon provided by our benevolent central planners.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:30 | 2377234 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

bull- shish!

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:32 | 2377246 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Yeah the trends are always so obvious when looking through the rear view mirror.   Little bit different when you actually have a position and are trying to figure out what is going to happen.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 13:35 | 2377259 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

Keep some cash to wipe your ass

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 14:25 | 2377443 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

That's what happens when you give banks unlimited free cash. They turn the stock market into video game. It will go up to infinity regardless of news or data. Macro my ass.

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 15:15 | 2377632 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Have a look - the SP500 is closing in on it's 2008 high. But the volume since Dec 2011 has been very low.  Not very bullish, but price action is what counts.....I guess.



Thu, 04/26/2012 - 15:17 | 2377642 Balmyone
Balmyone's picture

All I know is that I own too much silver and the economy looks weak, very weak.


I'm counting on Ben to do the CTRL-P thing eventually, but holding silver now has been mildly painful.


Its hard to believe that this summer looks set to repeat last summer.

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