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Houston, We Have Recoupling - Initial Claims Back Over 400,000 (Post Next Week's Revision), Retail Sales Ex Autos Worst Since Early 2010

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Remember that whole "US is decoupling" theme so pathologically spread around by two-bit propaganda media outfits staffed by journalism B.A. majors? Time to put it in the trash where it belongs. As long expected, the temp hire surge, so effectively used by retailers to dump inventory below cost (just ask Sears), is over, and in the first week of 2012, Seasonally Adjusted claims soared to 399,000, the highest since November and a number which next week will be revised over 400,000, a decimation of expectations of 375,000 (naturally last week's number was revised upward from 372K to 375K - a long-lasting BLS tradition of fudging data that everyone knows about now). The Non-Seasonally adjusted number was +102,314 claims in the first week of the year. And the real question is how many of these real departures were of the banker type, where the impact on lost withholding taxes going forward, and thus government revenues, will be quite dire. Continuing claims also missed expectations, rising to 3628K from a revised 3609K (expectation was for an unchanged print, pre-revision, of 3595K). And the worst news is that the 99-week cliff continues to grab more and more, with 48k people dropping off all rolls, and thus from the labor force completely, meaning the labor force participation rate in January will likely drop to another fresh 30 year low. But the horrendous jobs update was only one part. The other one focuses on actual consumer spending, as confirmed by the major miss in retail sales which were up 0.1% on expectations of 0.3%, but the entire gain was due to car purchases primarily driven by cheap govt-funded subprime credit for GM vehicles. Sales ex-autos actually declined by 0.2%, on an expectation of 0.3% rise: this was the first decline and worst print since early 2010. So much for the consumer-led recovery. And so much for the unemployment pick up. And so much for the decoupling. The chart below shows what will happen as the world finally reconverges, as was posted yesterday.

Some more thoughts on retail sales via Bloomberg and CRT:

  • Control sales drop “a very bad sign for the condition of the consumer, bodes ill for personal spending” in 1Q, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Underlying detail “suggests a very difficult holiday sales season,” points to “difficult earnings season for retailers": Brusuelas
  • Supply/production estimates on commodities ‘‘much stronger than expected,’’ means ‘‘several commodities could weaken further,’’ says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • "Big surprise” in 0.4% decline for non-store retailers, proxy for Internet sales: Brusuelas
  • Weaker-than-forecast retail sales data suggest are “more in line with the post Black Friday anecdotes,” David Ader, strategist at CRT Capital, writes in note.
  • "Weakness in the core core area is disturbing; while seasonals play into it, it looks odd to see electronics and non-store retailers (i.e. On line) come in with negatives": Ader

Retail sales ex autos:

SA Initial Claims:

Charts Bloomberg

 


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Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

I see a bad moon arising

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I can't believe how hard retail stocks have been getting hammered this morning! This is just PURE MANIPULATION. There is just NO WAY those Christmas earnings should be that low. Central banks and primary dealers have been colluding to keep credit tight and put the squeeze on retail stocks, and the same time they are secretly buying credit default swaps and selling short those very stocks!  The SEC needs to step in and put a stop to this manipulative tightening!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Drop the MILLION from your name...even then it will reflect that you were OVERPAID.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Nice pop in PMs this AM. The holiday sale is over kids!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Stuart Varney just said "These are disappointing numbers..." Agreed.

"this was not expected." disagree.

I saw it coming as did everyone but MDB here at ZH.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

MDB a paid shill/propagandist. Public relations. 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Nah, MDB is probably someone's sockpuppet, or even one of the Tylers having some fun.  

pods

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Keep your eye on the ball!

The fundamental ball that is!

Have the fundos changed for the better? No. Whats different? Everything. Which direction? Worse.

So, there's your answer. Physical gold and silver up. Premiums for physical over paper up. Simple.

 

Keep your eye on the fundos.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Speaking of pm's and re-coupling, if the long end keeps running, SLV might decide to retest the lows....

http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2012/01/tlt-vs-slv.html

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

With all the lawsuits still out on silver price manipulation, and position limits on the card, SLV will decide to test the lows.

What did it start out at?  I don't remember, but all paper returns to it's intrinsic value....

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Karlus
Karlus's picture

Silver is still waaay under $50/oz. I would posit that its still on sale.

My questions for you is Platinum on sale? Its rarer than gold, way underpriced, yeah there is an industrial component (cars) and its not really viewed as money, but is it on sale??

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Genius, LoneStarHog... pure genius from your keyboard !

(I'm not running for any office, and I approve this mesage.)

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Pure manipulation? LMAO! That's classic, bro, even for you. Retail was a fairy story in December; THAT was manipulation. THIS is reality.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

"The Negro is indolent and lazy, and spends his money on frivolities, whereas the European is forward-looking, organized and intelligent." - Che Guevara

I guess we are all Negro's now.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Hey black dudes with the Che T-shirts:

See above.  

Hee hee hee.

(Actually I am a Neanderthal, thank you very much!)

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

No you arent.  The Annunaki merged much smarter DNA with them thousands of years ago and then had us hunt you down and destroy any evidence we came from the same tree...and of course destroying any chance we would discover someday that they messed with evolution.

Manipulation of our ass has been going on for a very long time.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Do you not get it, lads? The Irish are the blacks of Europe. And Dubliners are the blacks of Ireland. And the Northside Dubliners are the blacks of Dublin. So say it once, say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud.

Jimmy,  The Commitments

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

In my HO that is a little too conspiratorial. This is just old fashioned pump and dump amped up by the billions available through ZIRP. Retail stocks have lots of traction with retail investors (aka suckers). I think the Dow is leading this parade higher for the same reason.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Million Dollar Bonehead is the local jester Smitty.  Take anything with a grain of salt.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

A jester's job is to tell the king the truth in a humorous manner. MDB is more of a clown. Acting stupid for a laugh.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Central banks became universally hawkish in 2011 and the primary dealers and other retail banks have been consistently tightening their balance sheets. AT THE SAME TIME, retail stocks start to take a dive with Christmas earnings coming in MASSIVELY below consensus. Coincidence? Right LOL!. Only a completely delusional conformist can't see this basic reality. The powers that be are MANIPULATING retail stocks in broad daylight and these sheep just cannot see it!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Wait a second, MDB. Didn't you say that TPTB are brilliant economists who should be given free reign to do what they think is best? What happened to that story? You gotta stay consistent, man, or you lose credibility.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment Born Patriot
Born Patriot's picture

MillionDollarBonehead is just a whining apologist for our Muslim president and the new multiculturalist America. He has no credibility at all. Ron Paul 2012!!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

You really think that is his motivation?  I mean, there are plenty of other reasons to shill for the scumbags in charge.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

New troll.  Do Not Feed.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I AM consistent. Federal Reserve officials are supposed to be EASING during tough economic times. Why would central banks become hawkish during a global economic slowdown!? There is no rational reason for this other than MANIPULATION OF RETAIL STOCKS!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Well, you said they were brilliant and should be allowed to make all decisions regarding pricing, the economy, etc. So, are they still brilliant? Or, perhaps they know something you don't know? Or, perhaps they don't have a fucking clue? Or, perhaps they don't have control?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

war needs hungry,angry motivated bullet catchers

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Sometimes I wonder if you are a troll or sincerely stupid.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"Federal Reserve officials are supposed to be EASING during tough economic times."

Whoa whoa whoa whoa and whoa.

There isn't suppose to be a Federal Reserve so your premise of what they "should" do is best likened to this analysis: "Dragons are suppose to blow smoke up my ass when its cold outside."

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Arcturus
Arcturus's picture

Why stop at retail stocks? Manipulation is at all levels as is propaganda.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Yeah we know Benny is out to destroy Sears, that's got to be it.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment NetDamage
NetDamage's picture

Chrash stocks to sell T-bills or to build a case for QE-whatever. I guess even an asshole can sometimes fart in the right direction.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Careful there, you're falling out of character and sounding more like a regular ZeroHedge commenter! :>D

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Someone forgot to log into his other account...

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

MDB, the Brain Bank just called...all your checks bounced due to 0 balance in your Brain acct.

 

Also, your Mom says get upstairs now and take your Gummi vitamins!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

God damn, do you people not know what a troll is?  I'm starting to question why I read this site judging by the number of vote-ups you chumps get.  Apparently, the readership is functionally retarded.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

I know you are but what am I?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Funny how you do not cry foul when things go up for no reason, yet when they go down for a reason you're screaming manipulation.  Please go high dive off a skyscraper.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

Junking MDB has always been a past-time for ZH readers because frankly, its funny to do even though we know he is kidding, however when someone actually replies professing that the guy actually believes his own satire makes me wonder if these are the exact same people who need a dictionary to read ZH or are just here to bash the judes

 

Well done MDB

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Why do you hate America?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

He doesn't hate America. He hates freedom.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Spacemoose
Spacemoose's picture

it's sarc.  mdb takes the position of the pollyannas and by verbalizing their position, illustrates the absurdity of their "logic".

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

<yawn>

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  02/18/2010
Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Christmas sales are what they are. I personally know many people that didn't buy a thing. The jobs data tells the story if you care to read it. Business's are not hiring permanant employee's. The funny thing about debt is its costs. If you owe the bankers, you don't have much left to spend. Consumers can't print money like the government.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

If its manipulated downwards, then it's a GREAT opportunity for you to BTFD...
;-)

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Mikehy
Mikehy's picture

i dont even finish reading MDB's posts before i +1 them. Genius.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Hey Tyler - thanks for the comedic act mate!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

MDB, could you please pass the hookah? Not nice to bogart such an apparently great buzz.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

MDB makes Jim Cramer look like a permabear.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Muddy1

"I see a bad moon arising"

Well stop peeping Candy Crowley.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment craig_slater_nl
craig_slater_nl's picture

why do i only see the post and not the chart below???

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Tis transitory, Obama will hire a number fudge Czar who will be under orders to print everything positive until the election! The moto of the new department is " fudge as you like, the people in the US will believe anything we put out"

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Or a fudge-packing Czar, perhaps?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Is the head of the BLS a pitcher, or a catcher?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Ministry of Mis-truth & Dis-Information has done it again, and wow, what a bang up job they did, indeed.

 

While telling the Amerikan Sheeple that "all was well," "Christmas sales were robust," "retailers were rushing to hire employees for the season," etc., in reality, sales were contracting again (that revised 0.2% decline they now claim is - without a shadow of a doubt in my mind - likely to be far greater given that inflation on gasoline and groceries likely accounted for much of incremental revenue) and employers were firing in net terms (here, again, that 400k rise in unemployment insurance applications is going to be revised even higher - just wait - and is a number on its own that reliably proves that unemployment, even by the BLS's deeply flawed and biased to the 'sunny side' methodology of keeping tabs on unemployment, will rise in the months ahead).

One has to marvel at how incredibly efficient the Main Stream Lame Ass Media is at spreading and perpetuating governmental-financial complex/Wall Street lies, propaganda and disinformation.

And while the lies about "robust sales" and "strong seasonal hiring" were all in bold font, on the front pages of rags like The New York Times & Wall Street Journal, you can guaran-damn-tee that the revisions regarding contractionary sales & rising unemployment claims (not to mention what chunk of the awful retail sales were due to simple inflation) will be mentioned, if at all, in far fainter font, certainly not on the front page.

Kick the can, bitchez.

The Bernank is doing an amazing job of absolutely killing retailers, consumption, savers (he's killing consumption & savers - neat trick) what's left of the middle class (and now the upper-middle class, too), and debasing the currency, while setting up what are now a 2nd wave of bubbles in both risk and non-risk asset classes (e.g. stocks & bonds; another neat trick).

He's not just another fractional reserve central bankster; he's the economic & monetary policy anti-christ.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:10 | Link to Comment hairball48
hairball48's picture

I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.

And it's only just beginning

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

ALL IN LONG!!!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

OT:

"Simon (SPG)  has Sears as a tenant in 137 of its 190 malls, while competitor General Growth Properties Inc. has Sears in 110 of its 167 malls, said Andrew Johns, an analyst at Green Street Advisors Inc. in Newport Beach, Calif."

This is bulilsh for SPG and GGP right ?

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

ALL IN LONG!!!

Under wear I hope. Because it's gonna get damn cold when heating oil is $8 a gallon!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

really bullish!!!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Watching the 10Y break 1.90 was epic.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What happens when they go to 0.00? Does this mean in a couple years I'll be able to refi and have the bank pay me interest?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Yep, cause you know they'll keep this shit show going until the peasants revolt and wheel a guillotine down Pennsylvania Ave.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Is that the new Monopoly game piece; the guillotine?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Perfect timing for the Bernank to say more QE is needed in two weeks.

http://TheSilverJournal.com

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I hope they do start mumbling about more QE soon...go ahead put oil up another $20 and gold up another $300...fine with me.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

By my count, every single last dumb ass, made up equity catalyst...is now gone...except for one...the USD/oil inverse trade.  On oil, criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers run it up the flag pole in hopes that it holds the S&P in place.  And so the button for the absolute worst catalyst for the economy is pressed...kill the US dollar and buy oil.  There...that outta work.

Today, we discover which WS tools stayed one day too long on this complete vapor volume melt up rally as all credibility in the system dies face down in the street at the corner of Wall And Broad.

More decoupling anyone?

Oh...and when the EUR/USD cross once again passes under 127.08...it will be for good...as in forever.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Someday QE will come 
Someday I 'll find my love 
And how thrilling that moment will be 
When Bernanke comes to me 
He'll whisper I love you 
And steal a kiss or two 
He's not far away; QE comes any day -
Someday when my dreams come true.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

They just might start that mumbling with the dollar as strong as it is....we'll see.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Oil, in some part, is killing the economy right now. Gas is around $3.70/gallon and diesel is a little higher, and $4 is maybe a month away, unless $5 gets here first due to explosive events regarding Iran, Nigeria, etc.

Obama had better start blabbing about 'evil speculators' again while praising Geithner, Bernanke and the rest of his brilliant nominees.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The ‘cash for clunkers’ program only succeeded in transferring sales from the future to the present so now the resulting ‘air pocket’ is being encountered.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Same thing happening in the UK, which is also hurting the lower income folks who need cheap used cars to get to their minimum wage jobs and back. Particularly those in semi-rural areas, which we have a lot of here.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Don't know who the hell would vot Paper down on his $4clunkers comment, but he's dead on accurate.

Cash for Clunkers is another shining example of government meddling in markets that result in pain (net pain, for years).

It just pulled demand forward, artificially, took out the supply of what could have been affordable cars for lower income people, and will lead to bigger price/demand distortions and supply/demand skewing in the future.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

If you thought Cash for Clunkers was government meddling, I bet you can't wait for the PRFIFFMH (Put Rental Fannies Into Foreclosed Fannie Mae Homes).

Talk about wealth transfer! Taking homes without clean title and selling them to "investors" - at about 1/2 price - instead of doing the right thing and selling them at auctions for whatever the market will bear. Sets up some great cash flow, especially when the investors decide to stop paying the mortgages, citing issues like "low take-up rate, too many broken faucets, ceilings, flooded basements, rodent infestations, etc."

Ought to be a good show and send RE prices even lower. Besides, these are single-family homes we're talking about, not apartment complexes. Can't wait to hear the outrage from neighborhoods suddenly turned into suburban ghettos as no doubt welfare recipients will be the the most-sought-after renters.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No doubt that simply means there are more people to start new businesses, according to the BDM.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Damn peasants just need to row harder!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

399.  You can't make this kind of shit up!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Actually, they can make that kind of shit up :-) but I know what you mean.  Too bad we are conditioned to round numbers... it would be really cool if it would have come in at 399,995.  That would be the ultimate fock you, though 399 isn't too far from that.  

There was a thread yesterday where someone claimed that our government isn't good at keeping secrets, but you don't even need to keep a secret when everyone is in on the scam... and my everyone, I mean me too.  When everything is a farce, when everything is a lie, what lie do you choose to call out and who is to do the calling?  Life is growing rather absurd.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

They can and they do

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"399.  You can't make this kind of shit up!"

 

Exactly!  Thank God we have the accurate Homebuilders and NAR data to sustain our hope for any glimmer of honesty in the system!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Actually, the official number was 399.99999999999999999999999(.)(.)9999. And they always round down.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I snuck a pair in there just for fun. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDkt-K3vjMM&feature=related

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

2 questions!.  Do unemployment numbers ever get settled on a yearly basis, so we know exactly what year over year numbers are w/out Revisions

or do they constantly revise them?

Money pulled out of the market yesterday was 9.5 billion, what is there cash level now?  And at what cash level do we hold our breath?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How in the FUCK did they think that growth was going to assert itself and payrolls were going to expand WITH OIL OVER $100?

Are they complete morons?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Seems to be just all out desperation to keep 401K brigades from selling....other than that I see no purpose to the ongoing daily clown show.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

The American Jobs Act of course!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Houston is not listening. They are all at the Dairy Queen getting banana boat sundaes.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Carson Block will be on the BNN at 8:30 EST tomorrow morning.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

Is carson block a speech disorder?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

At least now we can get back to reality after the Dec markets decoupling....like rumors of more free money! Now we're talkin.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Slowly but surely the truth comes out.

Am I the only one that cannot stand Cramer this early in the morning (or anytime for that matter). Mute on than at 10AM music for the rest of the trading day.

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Hansel
Hansel's picture

I can't believe they put Cramer on the morning slot.  I don't even turn it on anymore.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

No worry, those bulls will find some bullishness soon.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Chrikus van der...
Chrikus van der Rockhuizen's picture

so i should be short USD / long EUR right?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

hate to say it guys but the uptrend is still intact, BAC is passing $7 in premarket and upward triangle in spx points to target of 1300+. there may be a fib retracement upon opening, but signs are pointing north

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea well Im not betting on it thats for sure. Watch out for the false flag here, they need swings in markets to rake in the dough not .1% market 'trends'. Remember it was only a few months ago while everyone and their brother was bullish we got a few -400 point DOW days. 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Just telling you what I see from a technical perspective. I trade options very short term, so a .1% swing for me can result in a 5%-10% return for the day. You all are too dogmatic and only see the market in a bearish perspective. I don't care about being bullish or bearish, just care about being right.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Agreed on the being right and of course, lucky.  Retail might be bad but the XRT is painting flat to green this morning.  I will admit to being not only confused, but mildly surprised.  Time will tell?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont pay any mind to 'technicals' now in a 100% manipulated market, what is the point? You think you can outplay the rigged house? Good luck, you must have a nice $3 million dollar HFT farm if you think you can front run these cats..

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The lottery tagline in my state is: "Some lucky dog's gotta win!"

That describes "opportunity" in America.

When I was a teacher in Seattle, lots of my kids wanted to be NBA players when they grew up - they worked hard at it, but not at school. One of my kids was Nate Robinson. The rest of them didn't make it.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. And the logical outcome of the policy after only a couple of decades is that it's way more likely that an American will inherit a fortune than make one. A total 180 from what used to happen. And now the self-made fortunes are coming out of China and other non-Japan Asia. Sign of terminal sclerosis which is what the supply-side medicine was supposed to fight

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

We've had this discussion before CM - for you it makes sense to trade on a technical perspective as you are working with a very short term focus. Fundamentals aren't useful for you. Some of us here are more medium term focused, which means fundamentals and news are important.

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  What has it been doing after hours again?  HFT and Fed ramping on NO volume isn't hard to "predict" fucknut.  LOL!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Still 'up-trending' Comay? I dont see it myself....other than Jan 1 freakshow pumpfest, markets arent doing shit.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

like i said - retracement after open, uptrend still intact.  seems to be losing steam though

not sure why ppl here hate it when a technical guy says the market is going up.  maybe you should all pay attention, or at the very least become informed in technicals too.  start here:  http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
Wednesday, January 11, 2012 Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the Bottom

"...things are actually worse than any of the prevailing estimates indicates, although Goodman is very close to the mark. Current loss experience suggests that this figure is staggering, easily in the $1 trillion range."

 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-10-million-shadow...

 

No decoupling that I can see.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

That was an eye-popping read.

Michael has some huge data sets and he actually created a database you can actually "play".

It's in alpha at present but it's still fun and is free.

Find The Fraud!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Not sure where the guy gets his information, but I sincerely doubt that the "fraud" associated with foreclosure judgments has a one (1) year statute of limitations in florida.  The difference is in the classification of the fraud...  there is a substantial difference between fraud on another person or party and fraud on the court...  the former has definite periods of limitation to bring action or otherwise contest, whereas the latter is likely at the discretion of the same court against which the fraud was committed...  big difference.  Further, the former would actually require showing of a meritorious defense to overturn (e.g. the homeowner wasn't in default anyway), whereas the latter would not...  again, big difference.

I think the better analysis is that progress has stalled because they're worried about not actually being the holder (and if they weren't actually the holder at the time of foreclosure/judgment, then they got some splainin to do).

His conclusion is correct though.  If they really wanted to push the matters through and make a determination, then they'd file a declaratory action as to their mortgage and name their entire predecessor chain of assignment...  figure out who is actually the holder...  and then move forward against the homeowner (probably foreclosing the homeowner's ability to challenge standing).  They're simply not incentivized to foreclose at present... 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

About 6 years ago my little town was one big traffic jam with construction going on everywhere. Now it's absolutely dead and has been for years.

A 10 minute drive reveals REO signs so old they are fading and falling apart. I don't see recovery any time soon and I think you are right. The banks don't seem (at least on the surface) to gain much by liquidating the properties. Plus - with more and more people challenging the foreclosures - there is a hefty litigation risk.

I still think the CDS tricks are the most sinister element in play. Without that; I think the most equitable solution would be to adjust (correct?) principle for EVERYONE to the old-fashioned underwriting standard of 31% income.

Even NPV is not a good indicator because nobody is buying.

They're getting all jammed in court (for a variety of reasons) in situations where people are clearly not paying. Imagine how jammed they'd be if people who ARE paying started questioning this shit.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

There is no recovery...  only pockets of resistence where the bubble wasn't as large and deleveraging isn't as needed.

Eh no...  the most equitable solution is to let folks file for bk and extinguish deficiency judgments...  and, likewise, to let the institutions holding that debt to eat it...  and file bk if need be also.  No writedowns...  no artificial treadmill continuity...  no nanny state theatrics.  No more ninnies.

Once all that inventory comes on line, rents are going to...  follow the prices down.

If these donkeys can be made whole via derivative bets, then that's fine...  let them...  but, I think there needs to be substantial inquiry into whether there was insider knowledge of the certainty of failure of many of the loans or, alternatively, whether all the transactions, all through the chain, were at arms length and on the up and up.  I think all of this works itself out when you don' t backstop the derivative counterparty...  and everyone takes their haircuts.  I presume that fraudulent concealment would toll the statute of limitations for these transactions...  but, there would also need to be reason for the lack of due diligence...  (why would someone even agree to take the other side of the bet?)...  from the perspective of homeowners, whether the banks are made whole twice doesn't really matter...  but, from the perspective of underwriters or the suckers, well...  that's another story.

In short, I think the best answer is to let the whole thing play out without any additional governmental involvement...  but, first, I think we clearly need to whipe the slate clean with the MF Global matter and ensure that derivative obligations are crammed far down the priority list...  then the rest is free to fall in place once all the defaults are fully recognized.  Get mark to market back working again and it all falls in place...  might even gain some confidence in the system (although it would be in freefall). 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

Yikes! That's a lot of BKs...lol.

"(why would someone even agree to take the other side of the bet?)"

That's why I called it sinister. If you know the GSE cronies will backstop the whole mess *using taxpayer money* why wouldn't they?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment SimpleSimon
SimpleSimon's picture

Spin says "It is an improvement from 420K from last Jan".  Believe Spin.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment snowbaall
snowbaall's picture

The figures are very disappointing.

It looks like there's no recovery.

But at least girls still have tits.

There's something to be said for that.

Well, I'm moving to the mountains.

Bringing lots of ammo.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Pretty girls tits are the only warm and fuzzy things left in the world.

Already moved to the mountains

Still buying ammo.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment mophead
mophead's picture

What?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

And mountain girls most certainly have tits.  Good place to run.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Smell the Recovery. Take a nice, deep breath in through the nose.

Ahhhhhhhhhhh...

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

i love the smell of faux recovery in the morning...

http://soundcloud.com/user68198/apocalypse-now-1979-i-love-the

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Sorry, that was me.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Stronger dollar is one of my biggest worries. A strong dollar crushes exports weakening the economy further.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

strong dollar, weak dollar... what does that even mean?  Strong or weak relative to what?  What the frock is a dollar?  Your worries should be bigger than a strong dollar, like what are you going to do for food when a dollar has no meaning.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

test...

 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The other side of the retail coin is the real estate that, over the next few years, will decline significantly in value.  Mall owners and retail REITs look to be good short candidates.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Remember that whole "US is decoupling" theme so pathologically spread around by two-bit propaganda media outfits staffed by journalism B.A. majors?"

I love ZH... and I hate those journalism B.A. majors.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Here is everyone's favorite journalism B.A. major: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fzO_YhOYNQ&feature=related

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Thanks.  I have seen that one.  That is good for a laugh.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

wow, I think you might have found the dumbest reporter in the north american continent 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Spin doctors. No one believes that LPR. Total BS.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Where I live nothing has changed since the crash in 08'. Unemployment is worse every year. I laff at any talk of recovery. The only thing going up is groceries, gas and electricity.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Gas is going up and headed higher( highest it has ever been for this time of the year as well), which means this spring when they are "switching blends" and Iran crap hits red alert it means it is going to get real nasty at the pump. Which means more pain and hurt coming soon.

You are right on the money.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Add in the Nigerian civil war a comming......2.5 million barrels a day...

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Retail sales are an unmitigated disaster. Look at the trend going back to October. The rate of increase has gone down every month. The only reason it increased in December was because of the spike in CC debt.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

There is no question about it and these numbers should be waking a lot of econs up. But just wait until those early 2012 numbers start rolling in each month.

It is going to be real fun.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

...and so ends the great green shoots recovery of 2011, exposed for the fraud that so many here already knew it was.

and now back to your regularly scheduled slow, painful and inevitable downward spiral into fiat paper debt driven economic oblivion.

any more delusions we can dispatch with today? personally I would like to see the deer before the week is out.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Very misleading numbers. Look at the NSA charts at the link. Show FASTER improvement than Bush.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/12/initial-jobless-claims-rose-to-399k-but-employment-to-population-remains-at-jimmy-carter-levels/

But employment to population ratio remains in Jimmy Carter levels. UGH!

So, IJC is a misleading number for the big picture.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If ES sells off hard, Treasury bonds could go totally vertical.

 

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ZN&cot=002602&p=d1

Only a matter of days before interest rates once again become close to zero in order to entice the "Animal Spirits" of the speculators to start diving back into stocks.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I've got "Animal Spirits".  In my pantelones.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Nobody should be surprised at the jobless number...or the retail number. 

It was quite obvious that the holidays gave a little boost. Just like the ultra-low volume stock market, in this economy ANY little flash in the pan is touted as a "miracle" from every rooftop until it finally fizzles

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment james larson
james larson's picture

How the seasonally adjusted figures are taken as gospel is beyond me.  Why not rely on actual with explanations.  Id sure hate to be a local politician that needs to staff local offices to deal with reality.  Last month we were told prosperity was just around the corner..the new claims were falling drastically.  Here are real unadjusted numbers.  Sorry but I dont get the warm fuzzies looking at these.  Improvement from 2010?  Certainly...but that magic 400K figure?  Not so much:

 

W/E 12/3 523,642
W/E 12/10 433,287
W/E 12/17 418,466
W/E 12/24 490,364
W/E 12/31 535,112
W/E 1/7 642,381

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture


Improvement from 2010?  Certainly...but that magic 400K figure?  Not so much:

That's cause we're waiting for the next dump. It's coming. Prob this spring

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its hard to guess timelines now since things are happening so fast, entire years worth of events happening now in 1 day or 1 week.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Sheepie: I think we're going to see a wave of bankruptcies, hostile takeovers and downsizings  going into this spring, with a bump in layoffs

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

All in....Wheels up....oppps FACE PALM.

I wonder if we are at the point where we are realizing that we don't need 7 TVs, 100 pairs of shoes, 2 dishwashers and 5000 square feet?

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You're giving too much credit to the idiot US consumer junkie of useless products. That's a habit they would never kick unless they just simply couldn't afford it. Rather than turning to a life of crime, most consumers are turning way defensive and 'just saying no' to junk. 

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Are those the same people still trying to buy McMansions? They're still going up all over the place around here. Don't know if they're being sold, but there must be some kind of interest either real or make believe for the builders to continue their insanity.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment dolph9
dolph9's picture

Or maybe people are broke because they use all their after-tax cash to commute 40 miles in SUVs and pickups while the bankers run away with the rest.

Either way.

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

"US is decoupling"

My thoughts turned to trains.

Moving Train Derailed by Tornado (never saw it coming):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKIRkl9W8Cc

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

There's a joke in there somewhere, I'm sure.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!