Houston, We Have Recoupling - Initial Claims Back Over 400,000 (Post Next Week's Revision), Retail Sales Ex Autos Worst Since Early 2010

Tyler Durden's picture

Remember that whole "US is decoupling" theme so pathologically spread around by two-bit propaganda media outfits staffed by journalism B.A. majors? Time to put it in the trash where it belongs. As long expected, the temp hire surge, so effectively used by retailers to dump inventory below cost (just ask Sears), is over, and in the first week of 2012, Seasonally Adjusted claims soared to 399,000, the highest since November and a number which next week will be revised over 400,000, a decimation of expectations of 375,000 (naturally last week's number was revised upward from 372K to 375K - a long-lasting BLS tradition of fudging data that everyone knows about now). The Non-Seasonally adjusted number was +102,314 claims in the first week of the year. And the real question is how many of these real departures were of the banker type, where the impact on lost withholding taxes going forward, and thus government revenues, will be quite dire. Continuing claims also missed expectations, rising to 3628K from a revised 3609K (expectation was for an unchanged print, pre-revision, of 3595K). And the worst news is that the 99-week cliff continues to grab more and more, with 48k people dropping off all rolls, and thus from the labor force completely, meaning the labor force participation rate in January will likely drop to another fresh 30 year low. But the horrendous jobs update was only one part. The other one focuses on actual consumer spending, as confirmed by the major miss in retail sales which were up 0.1% on expectations of 0.3%, but the entire gain was due to car purchases primarily driven by cheap govt-funded subprime credit for GM vehicles. Sales ex-autos actually declined by 0.2%, on an expectation of 0.3% rise: this was the first decline and worst print since early 2010. So much for the consumer-led recovery. And so much for the unemployment pick up. And so much for the decoupling. The chart below shows what will happen as the world finally reconverges, as was posted yesterday.

Some more thoughts on retail sales via Bloomberg and CRT:

  • Control sales drop “a very bad sign for the condition of the consumer, bodes ill for personal spending” in 1Q, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Underlying detail “suggests a very difficult holiday sales season,” points to “difficult earnings season for retailers": Brusuelas
  • Supply/production estimates on commodities ‘‘much stronger than expected,’’ means ‘‘several commodities could weaken further,’’ says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • "Big surprise” in 0.4% decline for non-store retailers, proxy for Internet sales: Brusuelas
  • Weaker-than-forecast retail sales data suggest are “more in line with the post Black Friday anecdotes,” David Ader, strategist at CRT Capital, writes in note.
  • "Weakness in the core core area is disturbing; while seasonals play into it, it looks odd to see electronics and non-store retailers (i.e. On line) come in with negatives": Ader

Retail sales ex autos:

SA Initial Claims:

Charts Bloomberg

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Muddy1's picture

I see a bad moon arising

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I can't believe how hard retail stocks have been getting hammered this morning! This is just PURE MANIPULATION. There is just NO WAY those Christmas earnings should be that low. Central banks and primary dealers have been colluding to keep credit tight and put the squeeze on retail stocks, and the same time they are secretly buying credit default swaps and selling short those very stocks!  The SEC needs to step in and put a stop to this manipulative tightening!

LoneStarHog's picture

Drop the MILLION from your name...even then it will reflect that you were OVERPAID.

redpill's picture

Nice pop in PMs this AM. The holiday sale is over kids!

JPM Hater001's picture

Stuart Varney just said "These are disappointing numbers..." Agreed.

"this was not expected." disagree.

I saw it coming as did everyone but MDB here at ZH.

Ned Zeppelin's picture

MDB a paid shill/propagandist. Public relations. 

pods's picture

Nah, MDB is probably someone's sockpuppet, or even one of the Tylers having some fun.  


OutLookingIn's picture

Keep your eye on the ball!

The fundamental ball that is!

Have the fundos changed for the better? No. Whats different? Everything. Which direction? Worse.

So, there's your answer. Physical gold and silver up. Premiums for physical over paper up. Simple.


Keep your eye on the fundos.

scatterbrains's picture

Speaking of pm's and re-coupling, if the long end keeps running, SLV might decide to retest the lows....


UP Forester's picture

With all the lawsuits still out on silver price manipulation, and position limits on the card, SLV will decide to test the lows.

What did it start out at?  I don't remember, but all paper returns to it's intrinsic value....

Karlus's picture

Silver is still waaay under $50/oz. I would posit that its still on sale.

My questions for you is Platinum on sale? Its rarer than gold, way underpriced, yeah there is an industrial component (cars) and its not really viewed as money, but is it on sale??

Carl Spackler's picture

Genius, LoneStarHog... pure genius from your keyboard !

(I'm not running for any office, and I approve this mesage.)

WonderDawg's picture

Pure manipulation? LMAO! That's classic, bro, even for you. Retail was a fairy story in December; THAT was manipulation. THIS is reality.

Gully Foyle's picture

"The Negro is indolent and lazy, and spends his money on frivolities, whereas the European is forward-looking, organized and intelligent." - Che Guevara

I guess we are all Negro's now.

Gavrikon's picture

Hey black dudes with the Che T-shirts:

See above.  

Hee hee hee.

(Actually I am a Neanderthal, thank you very much!)

JPM Hater001's picture

No you arent.  The Annunaki merged much smarter DNA with them thousands of years ago and then had us hunt you down and destroy any evidence we came from the same tree...and of course destroying any chance we would discover someday that they messed with evolution.

Manipulation of our ass has been going on for a very long time.

DaveyJones's picture

Do you not get it, lads? The Irish are the blacks of Europe. And Dubliners are the blacks of Ireland. And the Northside Dubliners are the blacks of Dublin. So say it once, say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud.

Jimmy,  The Commitments

Village Smithy's picture

In my HO that is a little too conspiratorial. This is just old fashioned pump and dump amped up by the billions available through ZIRP. Retail stocks have lots of traction with retail investors (aka suckers). I think the Dow is leading this parade higher for the same reason.

Temporalist's picture

Million Dollar Bonehead is the local jester Smitty.  Take anything with a grain of salt.

tarsubil's picture

A jester's job is to tell the king the truth in a humorous manner. MDB is more of a clown. Acting stupid for a laugh.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Central banks became universally hawkish in 2011 and the primary dealers and other retail banks have been consistently tightening their balance sheets. AT THE SAME TIME, retail stocks start to take a dive with Christmas earnings coming in MASSIVELY below consensus. Coincidence? Right LOL!. Only a completely delusional conformist can't see this basic reality. The powers that be are MANIPULATING retail stocks in broad daylight and these sheep just cannot see it!

WonderDawg's picture

Wait a second, MDB. Didn't you say that TPTB are brilliant economists who should be given free reign to do what they think is best? What happened to that story? You gotta stay consistent, man, or you lose credibility.

Born Patriot's picture

MillionDollarBonehead is just a whining apologist for our Muslim president and the new multiculturalist America. He has no credibility at all. Ron Paul 2012!!

Gavrikon's picture

You really think that is his motivation?  I mean, there are plenty of other reasons to shill for the scumbags in charge.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I AM consistent. Federal Reserve officials are supposed to be EASING during tough economic times. Why would central banks become hawkish during a global economic slowdown!? There is no rational reason for this other than MANIPULATION OF RETAIL STOCKS!

WonderDawg's picture

Well, you said they were brilliant and should be allowed to make all decisions regarding pricing, the economy, etc. So, are they still brilliant? Or, perhaps they know something you don't know? Or, perhaps they don't have a fucking clue? Or, perhaps they don't have control?

prains's picture

war needs hungry,angry motivated bullet catchers

Quinvarius's picture

Sometimes I wonder if you are a troll or sincerely stupid.

JPM Hater001's picture

"Federal Reserve officials are supposed to be EASING during tough economic times."

Whoa whoa whoa whoa and whoa.

There isn't suppose to be a Federal Reserve so your premise of what they "should" do is best likened to this analysis: "Dragons are suppose to blow smoke up my ass when its cold outside."

Arcturus's picture

Why stop at retail stocks? Manipulation is at all levels as is propaganda.





Absinthe Minded's picture

Yeah we know Benny is out to destroy Sears, that's got to be it.

NetDamage's picture

Chrash stocks to sell T-bills or to build a case for QE-whatever. I guess even an asshole can sometimes fart in the right direction.

StychoKiller's picture

Careful there, you're falling out of character and sounding more like a regular ZeroHedge commenter! :>D

MachoMan's picture

Someone forgot to log into his other account...

LongSoupLine's picture



MDB, the Brain Bank just called...all your checks bounced due to 0 balance in your Brain acct.


Also, your Mom says get upstairs now and take your Gummi vitamins!

Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

God damn, do you people not know what a troll is?  I'm starting to question why I read this site judging by the number of vote-ups you chumps get.  Apparently, the readership is functionally retarded.

firstdivision's picture

Funny how you do not cry foul when things go up for no reason, yet when they go down for a reason you're screaming manipulation.  Please go high dive off a skyscraper.

LiquidityandLunacy's picture

Junking MDB has always been a past-time for ZH readers because frankly, its funny to do even though we know he is kidding, however when someone actually replies professing that the guy actually believes his own satire makes me wonder if these are the exact same people who need a dictionary to read ZH or are just here to bash the judes


Well done MDB

RichardENixon's picture

He doesn't hate America. He hates freedom.

Spacemoose's picture

it's sarc.  mdb takes the position of the pollyannas and by verbalizing their position, illustrates the absurdity of their "logic".

fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  02/18/2010
Cole Younger's picture

Christmas sales are what they are. I personally know many people that didn't buy a thing. The jobs data tells the story if you care to read it. Business's are not hiring permanant employee's. The funny thing about debt is its costs. If you owe the bankers, you don't have much left to spend. Consumers can't print money like the government.

Libertarian777's picture

If its manipulated downwards, then it's a GREAT opportunity for you to BTFD...

Mikehy's picture

i dont even finish reading MDB's posts before i +1 them. Genius.

ucsbcanuck's picture

Hey Tyler - thanks for the comedic act mate!

FreeNewEnergy's picture

MDB, could you please pass the hookah? Not nice to bogart such an apparently great buzz.