Houston, We Have Recoupling - Initial Claims Back Over 400,000 (Post Next Week's Revision), Retail Sales Ex Autos Worst Since Early 2010
Remember that whole "US is decoupling" theme so pathologically spread around by two-bit propaganda media outfits staffed by journalism B.A. majors? Time to put it in the trash where it belongs. As long expected, the temp hire surge, so effectively used by retailers to dump inventory below cost (just ask Sears), is over, and in the first week of 2012, Seasonally Adjusted claims soared to 399,000, the highest since November and a number which next week will be revised over 400,000, a decimation of expectations of 375,000 (naturally last week's number was revised upward from 372K to 375K - a long-lasting BLS tradition of fudging data that everyone knows about now). The Non-Seasonally adjusted number was +102,314 claims in the first week of the year. And the real question is how many of these real departures were of the banker type, where the impact on lost withholding taxes going forward, and thus government revenues, will be quite dire. Continuing claims also missed expectations, rising to 3628K from a revised 3609K (expectation was for an unchanged print, pre-revision, of 3595K). And the worst news is that the 99-week cliff continues to grab more and more, with 48k people dropping off all rolls, and thus from the labor force completely, meaning the labor force participation rate in January will likely drop to another fresh 30 year low. But the horrendous jobs update was only one part. The other one focuses on actual consumer spending, as confirmed by the major miss in retail sales which were up 0.1% on expectations of 0.3%, but the entire gain was due to car purchases primarily driven by cheap govt-funded subprime credit for GM vehicles. Sales ex-autos actually declined by 0.2%, on an expectation of 0.3% rise: this was the first decline and worst print since early 2010. So much for the consumer-led recovery. And so much for the unemployment pick up. And so much for the decoupling. The chart below shows what will happen as the world finally reconverges, as was posted yesterday.
Some more thoughts on retail sales via Bloomberg and CRT:
- Control sales drop “a very bad sign for the condition of the consumer, bodes ill for personal spending” in 1Q, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
- Underlying detail “suggests a very difficult holiday sales season,” points to “difficult earnings season for retailers": Brusuelas
- Supply/production estimates on commodities ‘‘much stronger than expected,’’ means ‘‘several commodities could weaken further,’’ says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
- "Big surprise” in 0.4% decline for non-store retailers, proxy for Internet sales: Brusuelas
- Weaker-than-forecast retail sales data suggest are “more in line with the post Black Friday anecdotes,” David Ader, strategist at CRT Capital, writes in note.
- "Weakness in the core core area is disturbing; while seasonals play into it, it looks odd to see electronics and non-store retailers (i.e. On line) come in with negatives": Ader
Retail sales ex autos:
SA Initial Claims:
Charts Bloomberg
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I see a bad moon arising
I can't believe how hard retail stocks have been getting hammered this morning! This is just PURE MANIPULATION. There is just NO WAY those Christmas earnings should be that low. Central banks and primary dealers have been colluding to keep credit tight and put the squeeze on retail stocks, and the same time they are secretly buying credit default swaps and selling short those very stocks! The SEC needs to step in and put a stop to this manipulative tightening!
Drop the MILLION from your name...even then it will reflect that you were OVERPAID.
Nice pop in PMs this AM. The holiday sale is over kids!
Stuart Varney just said "These are disappointing numbers..." Agreed.
"this was not expected." disagree.
I saw it coming as did everyone but MDB here at ZH.
MDB a paid shill/propagandist. Public relations.
Nah, MDB is probably someone's sockpuppet, or even one of the Tylers having some fun.
pods
Keep your eye on the ball!
The fundamental ball that is!
Have the fundos changed for the better? No. Whats different? Everything. Which direction? Worse.
So, there's your answer. Physical gold and silver up. Premiums for physical over paper up. Simple.
Keep your eye on the fundos.
Speaking of pm's and re-coupling, if the long end keeps running, SLV might decide to retest the lows....
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2012/01/tlt-vs-slv.html
With all the lawsuits still out on silver price manipulation, and position limits on the card, SLV will decide to test the lows.
What did it start out at? I don't remember, but all paper returns to it's intrinsic value....
Silver is still waaay under $50/oz. I would posit that its still on sale.
My questions for you is Platinum on sale? Its rarer than gold, way underpriced, yeah there is an industrial component (cars) and its not really viewed as money, but is it on sale??
Genius, LoneStarHog... pure genius from your keyboard !
(I'm not running for any office, and I approve this mesage.)
Pure manipulation? LMAO! That's classic, bro, even for you. Retail was a fairy story in December; THAT was manipulation. THIS is reality.
"The Negro is indolent and lazy, and spends his money on frivolities, whereas the European is forward-looking, organized and intelligent." - Che Guevara
I guess we are all Negro's now.
Hey black dudes with the Che T-shirts:
See above.
Hee hee hee.
(Actually I am a Neanderthal, thank you very much!)
No you arent. The Annunaki merged much smarter DNA with them thousands of years ago and then had us hunt you down and destroy any evidence we came from the same tree...and of course destroying any chance we would discover someday that they messed with evolution.
Manipulation of our ass has been going on for a very long time.
Do you not get it, lads? The Irish are the blacks of Europe. And Dubliners are the blacks of Ireland. And the Northside Dubliners are the blacks of Dublin. So say it once, say it loud: I'm black and I'm proud.
Jimmy, The Commitments
In my HO that is a little too conspiratorial. This is just old fashioned pump and dump amped up by the billions available through ZIRP. Retail stocks have lots of traction with retail investors (aka suckers). I think the Dow is leading this parade higher for the same reason.
Million Dollar Bonehead is the local jester Smitty. Take anything with a grain of salt.
A jester's job is to tell the king the truth in a humorous manner. MDB is more of a clown. Acting stupid for a laugh.
Central banks became universally hawkish in 2011 and the primary dealers and other retail banks have been consistently tightening their balance sheets. AT THE SAME TIME, retail stocks start to take a dive with Christmas earnings coming in MASSIVELY below consensus. Coincidence? Right LOL!. Only a completely delusional conformist can't see this basic reality. The powers that be are MANIPULATING retail stocks in broad daylight and these sheep just cannot see it!
Wait a second, MDB. Didn't you say that TPTB are brilliant economists who should be given free reign to do what they think is best? What happened to that story? You gotta stay consistent, man, or you lose credibility.
MillionDollarBonehead is just a whining apologist for our Muslim president and the new multiculturalist America. He has no credibility at all. Ron Paul 2012!!
You really think that is his motivation? I mean, there are plenty of other reasons to shill for the scumbags in charge.
New troll. Do Not Feed.
I AM consistent. Federal Reserve officials are supposed to be EASING during tough economic times. Why would central banks become hawkish during a global economic slowdown!? There is no rational reason for this other than MANIPULATION OF RETAIL STOCKS!
Well, you said they were brilliant and should be allowed to make all decisions regarding pricing, the economy, etc. So, are they still brilliant? Or, perhaps they know something you don't know? Or, perhaps they don't have a fucking clue? Or, perhaps they don't have control?
war needs hungry,angry motivated bullet catchers
Sometimes I wonder if you are a troll or sincerely stupid.
"Federal Reserve officials are supposed to be EASING during tough economic times."
Whoa whoa whoa whoa and whoa.
There isn't suppose to be a Federal Reserve so your premise of what they "should" do is best likened to this analysis: "Dragons are suppose to blow smoke up my ass when its cold outside."
Why stop at retail stocks? Manipulation is at all levels as is propaganda.
Yeah we know Benny is out to destroy Sears, that's got to be it.
Chrash stocks to sell T-bills or to build a case for QE-whatever. I guess even an asshole can sometimes fart in the right direction.
Careful there, you're falling out of character and sounding more like a regular ZeroHedge commenter! :>D
Someone forgot to log into his other account...
MDB, the Brain Bank just called...all your checks bounced due to 0 balance in your Brain acct.
Also, your Mom says get upstairs now and take your Gummi vitamins!
God damn, do you people not know what a troll is? I'm starting to question why I read this site judging by the number of vote-ups you chumps get. Apparently, the readership is functionally retarded.
I know you are but what am I?
Funny how you do not cry foul when things go up for no reason, yet when they go down for a reason you're screaming manipulation. Please go high dive off a skyscraper.
Junking MDB has always been a past-time for ZH readers because frankly, its funny to do even though we know he is kidding, however when someone actually replies professing that the guy actually believes his own satire makes me wonder if these are the exact same people who need a dictionary to read ZH or are just here to bash the judes
Well done MDB
Why do you hate America?
He doesn't hate America. He hates freedom.
it's sarc. mdb takes the position of the pollyannas and by verbalizing their position, illustrates the absurdity of their "logic".
<yawn>
Christmas sales are what they are. I personally know many people that didn't buy a thing. The jobs data tells the story if you care to read it. Business's are not hiring permanant employee's. The funny thing about debt is its costs. If you owe the bankers, you don't have much left to spend. Consumers can't print money like the government.
If its manipulated downwards, then it's a GREAT opportunity for you to BTFD...
;-)
i dont even finish reading MDB's posts before i +1 them. Genius.
Hey Tyler - thanks for the comedic act mate!
MDB, could you please pass the hookah? Not nice to bogart such an apparently great buzz.
MDB makes Jim Cramer look like a permabear.
Muddy1
"I see a bad moon arising"
Well stop peeping Candy Crowley.
why do i only see the post and not the chart below???
Tis transitory, Obama will hire a number fudge Czar who will be under orders to print everything positive until the election! The moto of the new department is " fudge as you like, the people in the US will believe anything we put out"
Or a fudge-packing Czar, perhaps?
Is the head of the BLS a pitcher, or a catcher?
The Ministry of Mis-truth & Dis-Information has done it again, and wow, what a bang up job they did, indeed.
While telling the Amerikan Sheeple that "all was well," "Christmas sales were robust," "retailers were rushing to hire employees for the season," etc., in reality, sales were contracting again (that revised 0.2% decline they now claim is - without a shadow of a doubt in my mind - likely to be far greater given that inflation on gasoline and groceries likely accounted for much of incremental revenue) and employers were firing in net terms (here, again, that 400k rise in unemployment insurance applications is going to be revised even higher - just wait - and is a number on its own that reliably proves that unemployment, even by the BLS's deeply flawed and biased to the 'sunny side' methodology of keeping tabs on unemployment, will rise in the months ahead).
One has to marvel at how incredibly efficient the Main Stream Lame Ass Media is at spreading and perpetuating governmental-financial complex/Wall Street lies, propaganda and disinformation.
And while the lies about "robust sales" and "strong seasonal hiring" were all in bold font, on the front pages of rags like The New York Times & Wall Street Journal, you can guaran-damn-tee that the revisions regarding contractionary sales & rising unemployment claims (not to mention what chunk of the awful retail sales were due to simple inflation) will be mentioned, if at all, in far fainter font, certainly not on the front page.
Kick the can, bitchez.
The Bernank is doing an amazing job of absolutely killing retailers, consumption, savers (he's killing consumption & savers - neat trick) what's left of the middle class (and now the upper-middle class, too), and debasing the currency, while setting up what are now a 2nd wave of bubbles in both risk and non-risk asset classes (e.g. stocks & bonds; another neat trick).
He's not just another fractional reserve central bankster; he's the economic & monetary policy anti-christ.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.
And it's only just beginning
ALL IN LONG!!!
OT:
"Simon (SPG) has Sears as a tenant in 137 of its 190 malls, while competitor General Growth Properties Inc. has Sears in 110 of its 167 malls, said Andrew Johns, an analyst at Green Street Advisors Inc. in Newport Beach, Calif."
This is bulilsh for SPG and GGP right ?
ALL IN LONG!!!
Under wear I hope. Because it's gonna get damn cold when heating oil is $8 a gallon!
really bullish!!!
Watching the 10Y break 1.90 was epic.
What happens when they go to 0.00? Does this mean in a couple years I'll be able to refi and have the bank pay me interest?
Yep, cause you know they'll keep this shit show going until the peasants revolt and wheel a guillotine down Pennsylvania Ave.
Is that the new Monopoly game piece; the guillotine?
Perfect timing for the Bernank to say more QE is needed in two weeks.
http://TheSilverJournal.com
I hope they do start mumbling about more QE soon...go ahead put oil up another $20 and gold up another $300...fine with me.
By my count, every single last dumb ass, made up equity catalyst...is now gone...except for one...the USD/oil inverse trade. On oil, criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers run it up the flag pole in hopes that it holds the S&P in place. And so the button for the absolute worst catalyst for the economy is pressed...kill the US dollar and buy oil. There...that outta work.
Today, we discover which WS tools stayed one day too long on this complete vapor volume melt up rally as all credibility in the system dies face down in the street at the corner of Wall And Broad.
More decoupling anyone?
Oh...and when the EUR/USD cross once again passes under 127.08...it will be for good...as in forever.
Someday QE will come
Someday I 'll find my love
And how thrilling that moment will be
When Bernanke comes to me
He'll whisper I love you
And steal a kiss or two
He's not far away; QE comes any day -
Someday when my dreams come true.
They just might start that mumbling with the dollar as strong as it is....we'll see.
Oil, in some part, is killing the economy right now. Gas is around $3.70/gallon and diesel is a little higher, and $4 is maybe a month away, unless $5 gets here first due to explosive events regarding Iran, Nigeria, etc.
Obama had better start blabbing about 'evil speculators' again while praising Geithner, Bernanke and the rest of his brilliant nominees.
The ‘cash for clunkers’ program only succeeded in transferring sales from the future to the present so now the resulting ‘air pocket’ is being encountered.
Same thing happening in the UK, which is also hurting the lower income folks who need cheap used cars to get to their minimum wage jobs and back. Particularly those in semi-rural areas, which we have a lot of here.
Don't know who the hell would vot Paper down on his $4clunkers comment, but he's dead on accurate.
Cash for Clunkers is another shining example of government meddling in markets that result in pain (net pain, for years).
It just pulled demand forward, artificially, took out the supply of what could have been affordable cars for lower income people, and will lead to bigger price/demand distortions and supply/demand skewing in the future.
If you thought Cash for Clunkers was government meddling, I bet you can't wait for the PRFIFFMH (Put Rental Fannies Into Foreclosed Fannie Mae Homes).
Talk about wealth transfer! Taking homes without clean title and selling them to "investors" - at about 1/2 price - instead of doing the right thing and selling them at auctions for whatever the market will bear. Sets up some great cash flow, especially when the investors decide to stop paying the mortgages, citing issues like "low take-up rate, too many broken faucets, ceilings, flooded basements, rodent infestations, etc."
Ought to be a good show and send RE prices even lower. Besides, these are single-family homes we're talking about, not apartment complexes. Can't wait to hear the outrage from neighborhoods suddenly turned into suburban ghettos as no doubt welfare recipients will be the the most-sought-after renters.
No doubt that simply means there are more people to start new businesses, according to the BDM.
Damn peasants just need to row harder!
399. You can't make this kind of shit up!
Actually, they can make that kind of shit up :-) but I know what you mean. Too bad we are conditioned to round numbers... it would be really cool if it would have come in at 399,995. That would be the ultimate fock you, though 399 isn't too far from that.
There was a thread yesterday where someone claimed that our government isn't good at keeping secrets, but you don't even need to keep a secret when everyone is in on the scam... and my everyone, I mean me too. When everything is a farce, when everything is a lie, what lie do you choose to call out and who is to do the calling? Life is growing rather absurd.
They can and they do
"399. You can't make this kind of shit up!"
Exactly! Thank God we have the accurate Homebuilders and NAR data to sustain our hope for any glimmer of honesty in the system!
Actually, the official number was 399.99999999999999999999999(.)(.)9999. And they always round down.
I snuck a pair in there just for fun. :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDkt-K3vjMM&feature=related
2 questions!. Do unemployment numbers ever get settled on a yearly basis, so we know exactly what year over year numbers are w/out Revisions
or do they constantly revise them?
Money pulled out of the market yesterday was 9.5 billion, what is there cash level now? And at what cash level do we hold our breath?
How in the FUCK did they think that growth was going to assert itself and payrolls were going to expand WITH OIL OVER $100?
Are they complete morons?
Seems to be just all out desperation to keep 401K brigades from selling....other than that I see no purpose to the ongoing daily clown show.
The American Jobs Act of course!
Houston is not listening. They are all at the Dairy Queen getting banana boat sundaes.
Carson Block will be on the BNN at 8:30 EST tomorrow morning.