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How The Fed Quietly Bought 1,150 S&P Points

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With the need for exponentially larger expansions of the central bank balance sheets - and most importantly, the rate of expansion (flow) not just the size (stock) - we thought it useful to see just how the Fed's actions had impacted the S&P 500. From the lows in March 2009, 1150 S&P points have been 'created-or-saved' thanks to central bank largesse. That is a cost of $2 billion (not million!) for every S&P 500 point since the Fed started to expands its balance sheet by $2.3 trillion. Money-well-spent, we are sure you'll agree. In the meantime, it is the printing-endgames that we care about and the horrible sense of deja vu that the following chart inspires should at minimum see investors scaling back (which it appears the sensible retail investor is) - despite the imploring of every long-only asset manager.

The S&P 500 overlaid with the various Fed experiments...

And it seems like the balance sheets of the central banks need to expand at an ever-increasing rate just to stand still in terms of asset prices...

Does make one wonder what the 'real' value of the S&P 500 would have been without all that assistance?

But we are heading towards the end of Operation Twist and given the previous examples we have seen, it seems we are echoing once again...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment RacerX
RacerX's picture

See, this is why we need QE3.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

But per the chart, we wont get it till a 150+ point drop in S&P

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

'a cost of $2 million for every S&P 500 point '

That should read $2 billion per point

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

QE 1 527pts

QE2  2314pts

LTRO 317pts

1158 pts not 1150pts but who’s counting.

Can I have the extra $16,000,000

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Quietly????

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea thats the story from all the 'experts', who seem to never call anything right and never see anything coming. I dont believe it at all myself, this line the 'QE3-4.New' is loaded in the breech and will be fired just as soon as we get around -150 point drop, then all back to normal again...I think its total horse shit.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment I should be working
I should be working's picture

Well we're almost halfway there, right? Give it two more weeks.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

I'm gettin the shakes ... time to shoot up!  Anybody seen my dealer? -- don't cut me off now! 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Is it that "traditional" bald guy with the gray beard?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

And down goes JP Morgan.........................

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

If we see JPM go down, will silver rise?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Strangely, 35 in the middle.
Now that jpm drops to 38.5 silver should go back to 32.
I keep them next each other on my ticker because it somehow feels like they're connected at 35.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

wow -- this is going to be fun to watch ... down over 5% after market?!

G-d I love SKF!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Why is anyone surprised about this? Afterall, this is what a ponzi looks like!! 

Notice how "the markets" are itching for more ponzi fiat? They didn't crash back to earth yet because they KNOW Uncle BEnron will print more for them...

GAME OVER...

There are SO MANY variables that have gone wrong and BEnron knows that... in his initial calculation, it was not so complicated, but they forgot the power of the internet and a law of physics that says if you pull a flower in New York you move a whole planet out of orbit in another galaxy..

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Everytime they do this, the frequency and  the duration of the QE's get smaller and smaller.  Meaning that it's effect is less everytime on the market.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Rahm
Rahm's picture

CTRL + P  in 3, 2, 1.....

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Correlation, muppetz!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

I smell blood!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Funny, I smell toner.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

I smell desperation.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

I smell fear.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I just smell

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

I smell Shit.

(And it ain't me.)

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

I mighta farted. Sorry.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Money-well-spent

Well yeah. Since it's not your money. It's made up money. Then your friends on Wall Street can get rich and buy real assets with the profits... made up money giving the well placed people real assets... isn't it grand?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

1,150 S&P points just nothing but imaginary vapor, nothing at all backing it up except computer numbers. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Benny will not print until it is absolutely demanded of him.  Then ... of course ... he will. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Ben's a simple guy.  He has his princeton formula which states print if inflation below target.  Stop if above.  The only break of the while loop is when Jamie calls and pulls the plug.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Of course anything more than a 3% drop in the S&P is what defines "demanded of him"

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

Yep -- and then they cue Cramer to do another "HE KNOWS NOTHING!" rant, and voila!  It's like magic ... money from heaven ...

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Can the markets be more manipulated?  I suggest we replace the DOW with BEN to honor the Fed and give credit where credit is due.

Besides, it would be truth in advertising.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

What would be the true value of our politicians' portfolio?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

I can't believe you're exercising critical thought here,  BTFD...

 

 

Bid out!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In other news...

Taiwan monitors Chinese naval moves

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/05/10/2003532432

Taiwan's President Ma sees popularity plummet (somehow he was reelected in mid-January (election fraud?))

http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2c913216495213d5df646910cb...

Experts forecast imminent provocations by Kim Jong-un

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2012/05/10/0200000000AEN20120510001...

Report: N. Korea executing people on cannibalism charges

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/05/10/Report-N-Korea-executi...

N. Korea Could be Preparing for Follow-up Rocket Launch

http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_IK_detail.htm?No=90232

China Wants It All

China is insisting that international agreements do not apply in its dispute with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal. Chinese warships entering the Filipino exclusive economic zone (anything within 380 kilometers of land) are violating a 2002 agreement by nations bordering the South China Sea. Scarborough Shoal is 200 kilometers from the Philippines, and 850 kilometers from China. After signing the 2002 agreement China changed its mind three years ago and is now claiming ownership of the entire South China Sea.

Today, a Chinese military newspaper repeated the claim to Scarborough Shoal and warned that China would do whatever it takes to maintain its claim, no matter who (like the United States) backs the Philippines. That's pretty scary stuff coming from an official military publication.

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/phillip/articles/20120510.aspx

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea the FED monetized the debt...Ive been saying that here for 2 years. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Well, not entirely true.  It wasnt all that quiet.  Between Ben's new press conferences and bailout's, there has been nothing secret about the pump.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Not to us.  But walk down the street and quick-survey a dozen people and you will see the true meaning of "quiet."

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Fed? What?

Ben? Who?

Are they gonna be on Dance With The Stars?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The entire market and economy, if you can still even call them that, just made up entirely of congnitive dissonance at this point. Litteraly just a computer construct like the Matrix.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Better yet, what makes anyone think that they haven't been doing this shit during the 'great bull market'? 

They are just doing much more of it now.

 By the way, wonderful job banging the closing minutes to get the right color.  The headlines are already hitting on the 'snapping the losing streak'.  How pathetic can it actually get?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment PeeramidIdeologies
PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Yup, and now they are fighting the tide...

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Angus195
Angus195's picture

When Ben announces QE4 i'm long APPLE.....

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Yes. You and yer lightning-reflexes and Scott Trade account ought to beat those insider-informed algos to the table.

(BTW, Mr. Quick Draw, you might wanna practice getting OUT of positions in a hurry...)

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Look at the above charts. Does "lightning-reflexes" strike you as necessary to make money in a QE environment? 

 

You know, being a smart ass(hole) isn´t required to post comments here.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Mr. Chef sir...do you think anyone makes money from this scheme?  Do you think those QE-propped "gains" in equities improve your purchasing power?  If you do, you haven't been paying attention.

Unless you are the one controlling the info (and the algos), market-timing is a fool's errand...So when someone opens their jowls with some notion that "when the gun sounds, I'm going to make hay" - as if no one else on the planet is watching the same thing - I simply like to show them the mirror. 

If that causes you to get flush in the cheeks, well, it's Fight Club.  Bring a point or get back to cookin' up some vittles. 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Seems like the fuel is being watered down with each rise of the piston.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

In other news JPM has significant losses in CIO unit - whatever that means

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Money well spent

I'm sure your kid's grandchildren won't mind at all.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

The Fed knows where to set the stops, how cool is that!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Fuck. Return the free market system. 4 years of this crap and I am sick of it.

Ben, you know the history i-books will still blame you for the depression anyway.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

"Regarding the Next Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. And thanks to you, we'll do it again."

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

No worries, instead of i-books people will do wall paintings again. Maybe a legend of beast called Bernanke will survive until next raise of civilization.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

1998 levels of the stockmarkets seem fair plus 35% inflation adjusted.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

It will be interesting to see if the Fed waits until after the election to print.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Only if Ben wants to see Obama loose. If there is going to be any printing before election is either June or July. Otherwise, it is too close to the election, and it will look politically motivated.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

When does twist end?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Next month. That is what all the QE talk is all about and markets rattling. If there are no other programs announced in June 20, then the economy better be ready to fly.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Thanks.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Collapsed
Collapsed's picture

*RANDOM INFO*

Tyler,

FYI: thought this was interesting.  I have a friend who works for a US Senator and he told me that as of today Zerohedge is officially blocked from the US Senate Servers. Said he goes here all day everyday for the last few years, but today was the first day he was blocked. Hmmmm...scared much Feds???

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Wish I was up to a MDB-type post on how correct that move was, keeping our elected servants and their assistants from wasting time on such a useless, drivel-filled site and all; but I ain't.

MDB, speak UP man.

Interesting indeed, Thanks!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

As to the timing of QE3 - think of a typical Hollywood movie.

Cue - ACTION !

(The main chracter, BenDover, wearing a teflon coated sauce pan on backwards, watching the hoards marching toward the Fed)

Bendover screams "Don't Print until you see the whites of their eyes !".

It's the new patriotic Hollywood action film.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Billy B - Get working on a visual for this please!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Captain!  Warp drives are overloading!  The Dilithium Taxpayer Crystals canna' take no'more!"

"Give me warp 9.9, Timmy! To hell with the taxpayer!"

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:32 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, eb!

dilithium is rare because two lithiums must meet to form one, so, you can imagine!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Frastric
Frastric's picture

Thanks Tyler! Whenever I read some hasbeen economist or analyst spouting off about the recovery of the stock market, I will show them this gem of an article!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture

if you all recall, and if not worth checking, they [TPTB] kicked-off the run-up from the March 2009 Low by making BAC a 5-Bagger, from an exact 3.00 to 15+ in a mere 3 months, while the Stres Test was going on, C/Citi a 4-Bagger, and the really huge multi-thousands of percent Gains were made using FAS & FAZ, both Selling Calls and Buying Puts and visa versa, and they had more than TARP, don't forget we now know that some $16 TRILLION was scattered around, secretly, at that same time...oh yeah, i almost forgot, weren't financials banned from shorting then...they smartly used their own sector, no chance for a mistake or missed signal

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

As long as the Fed is accountable to no one my guess is thisa is the new economy. Long live the printing press!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Tyler,
You're surely not suggesting that the market might actually go down further are you?

DavidC

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment levenory
levenory's picture

Fortunately, women today have the opportunity to take advantage of a broad selection of shapes, sizes, textures and colors while saving tons of dollars in the process. In more recent years, Michael Kors has introduced their Michael Kors Factory Outlet Stores which house an incredible inventory of Michael Kors handbags, wallets and super popular accessories. Michael Kors products have long been one of the most desired brands in the designer clothing industry and the outlet stores give shoppers the chance to look just as glamorous as Hollywood, but at a fraction of the cost.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Alexmai
Alexmai's picture

Hyperinflation heading to all bailout nations

In the video a 12 year old explains how Canadian banks, in collusion with the Canadian government, steal billions from Canadians every year

http://investmentwatchblog.com/hyperinflation-heading-to-all-bailout-nations/#.T6x55LVe4dU

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

today, and hence tomorrow, the current aforementioned marxist 'utilitarian capitalist market', as prescribed by the FRB's neo-classical 'fractional-monetary-system', born in the U.S.A. is all but gross malfeasance and dubious fraud, encapsulating free markets with a 'Chinese-vacuous-Wall' tethered to a acrimoniously, and   patriarchal oligarchy few - with just a sleight of hand, this timely manifesto of deceit will ultimately bring tears of joy to both Stalin and Zedong dark spirits!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 23:21 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Just takes bigger and bigger QEs to get the stimulation. How about  $1.4 trillion for the inflationist and the commodity folks?

He will just keep expanding debt and the balance sheets. Already seeing real inflation, and it isn't 2 or 3%. Try almost 100% cost increases in fees, tolls, etc. 

The next QE (4) should cause a big jump in inflation.

 

 

Fri, 05/11/2012 - 02:03 | Link to Comment dinastar2
dinastar2's picture

Each QE brings a depreciaition of the US $ and creates an immediate jackup of th oil barrel; The oil producers who watch very well the level of depreciaition of the US $ react in very short time.This oil price increase is reflected at the gas station and hurts badly the US local driver.Since you have much more drivers than stock exchange holders , they will get angered and may vote against such a loose monetary policy.BHO knows this and will avoid another QE in order not to hurt the drivers-voters, also it's summertime and it's a pick-up in travel.

Fri, 05/11/2012 - 02:05 | Link to Comment cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

How Much More will the Homeownership Rate Fall?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4422-1-1.html

Fri, 05/11/2012 - 05:19 | Link to Comment Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

CNhedge, home ownership is so yesterday. It was never about home ownership to begin with, it was about suckering people into spending exorbitant amounts of money they didn't have to keep the ponzi afloat, either through "affordable" loans that they didn't realize they couldn't afford in three years or HELOCs so they could finally install those granite countertops and electronic toilets that they HAD to have at the cost of paying off that HELOC when they're in their 60s or 70s if they're lucky. Maybe. Now the same ones that took out those loans lost their jobs and lost their homes, go back to school and take on student loan debt so they can edjumicate to be part of the "new economy", which is the same as the old economy of the past twenty-thirty years, which is a crock o' shit.

Fuck the Fed and its 100 year scam.

Oh yeah, take your self-promoting link and shove it where the sun don't shine.

That is all. /drunkpost

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!