How To Lose $400,000 With Credit Suisse Betting On A Big Jackson Hole Disappointment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This Tuesday, we gave the podium to Credit Suisse's rates group with "How To Make $500,000 With Credit Suisse Betting On A Big Jackson Hole Disappointment" who in turn suggested that one of the best risk return opportunities heading into J-Hole, was to go short the 10 Year betting on disappointment by Bernanke (as a reminder earlier today we showed that virtually 100% of QE was already priced in). Well, Bernanke came and went, and although our personal take on the speech was broadly negative, which highlighted the adverse side effects of what would happen if there is another big QE round, and substantially toning the exuberant language from the latest FOMC minutes, which had previously made it seem that the majority of Fed presidents thought more easing should be imminent resulting in another centrally-planned market rip, the stock market did not agree with our take. At least not initially. As for Credit Suisse, it said to "put on a $50K DV01 short at 1.64% and expect a steep selloff when the Fed disappoints, with a 1.75% target. If all works out according to plan, everyone involved should be $500,000 richer at market close on Friday with Bollingers all around." Turns out nothing worked out quite as expected. In fact, as a result of the J-Hole remarks, we have had another stock buying spree of anything that is not nailed down, with gold popping the most, the DJIA soaring as much as 150 (although rapidly taking on water), and the 10 year... well, let's just say anyone who was on the other side of the CS prop traders, sometimes called "flow" for Volcker Rule purposes, is now down -$400,000 on a trade that was supposed to be a +$500,000 meatpacking extravaganza.

And, as usually happens, we warned of precisely the "other" thing happening when everyone expects one outcome.

If history is any guide, CS is right, and this will be the easiest $500 grand ever made. Then again, if there is one thing central planning has taught us, is that under central bankers with no world experience, history never rhymes.

Enjoying central planning yet?

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Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:23 | 2753571 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Goldman Suisse"?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:32 | 2753606 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

It was a setup.  However, it is hard to believe the market is still up considering what he said.  He put the monkey on congress where it should be, but we all know they are inept. 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:40 | 2753618 malikai
malikai's picture

I knew it! Stolper does have a twin!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:43 | 2753642 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

I keep tellin ya

It was a single birth

Stolper was the placenta...

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:45 | 2753650 malikai
malikai's picture

Well, one thing's for sure, it's bolli, blow, and expensive czech hooker night over at the CS offices tonight.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:18 | 2753727 strannick
strannick's picture

Take that Muppets. See you again on Sept. 13. And if you ever get tired of being beaten like dusty rugs, there is always one ounce silver coins (Maples and Eagles)

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:46 | 2753652 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

hehe... you said meatpacking...

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:10 | 2753713 The Watchman
The Watchman's picture

Shut up Bevis

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:12 | 2753716 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Suck it CS,ZH rules!

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 11:34 | 2754984 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

When in doubt... FADE and RUN!!!! RUN!!!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:07 | 2753707 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 He put the monkey on congress where it should be, but we all know they are inept.

Yep,they sure are,when the head of the real  monkey's would veto anything constructive they came up with(with a Dem Senate,no way it could happen,even if possible), remember O's agenda has worked to a "T".

If he lost somehow, he's STILL accomplished his mission,at least 75% fo it.

And Bernie, is not INEPT?........................Please!

Called passing the buck.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:08 | 2753709 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 He put the monkey on congress where it should be, but we all know they are inept.

Yep,they sure are,when the head of the real  monkey's would veto anything constructive they came up with(with a Dem Senate,no way it could happen,even if possible), remember O's agenda has worked to a "T".

If he lost somehow, he's STILL accomplished his mission,at least 75% of it.

And Bernie, is not INEPT?........................Please!

Called passing the buck.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:41 | 2753635 mac768
mac768's picture

Goldman Switzerland sucks the retail crowd and

as the real Goldman, bets against them and makes the buck for the prop trade

too easy really

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:22 | 2753737 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Yes.  Way too easy.  Even ZH readers were mostly taken in.  I was one of maybe 3 people on that original thread that said fade it.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:41 | 2753640 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

That was one ugly mother-fibbing muppet face-ripper trade from CS.  

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:04 | 2753698 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Even thieving scumbags have to have something to aspire to become.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:39 | 2753784 nokomarie
nokomarie's picture

No, Debit Suisse.

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 06:09 | 2754710 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

That's a good one, but I prefer Union Banksters of Switzerland

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:32 | 2753572 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The trade still could work -- governments like to make major "bad news" announcements over a three-day weekend.

How large the opening ES gap down will be if Israel bombs Iran?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:32 | 2753608 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Got Margin?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:42 | 2753624 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

I do not remember the financial media to be so desperate to prop up the market before a three-day weekend. Hilsenrath writing five "QE is Guaranteed" articles a day. Pasani is telling outright lies...

Did they all get a White House Memo?

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:52 | 2753670 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm sure watching gold and silver close at the day, week, month, and yes, even the (trailing) quarter high is doing wonders for their holiday plans.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:24 | 2753747 knukles
knukles's picture

Doing fucking wonders for mine!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:47 | 2753660 malikai
malikai's picture

The muppets are on their way over to the cash4gold right now to sort this out.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:52 | 2753671 malikai
malikai's picture

In today's "market", that would be +100.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:24 | 2753745 mkkby
mkkby's picture

2 years on ZH and still a muppet. 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:23 | 2753573 pods
pods's picture

That's gonna leave a mark!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:33 | 2753612 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

It's only a book entry and once Corzined, this has negligable consequence.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:35 | 2753620 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

"I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!"

"We're closin' for lunch."

"Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique."

"Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?"

"I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!"

"No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting."

Sat, 09/01/2012 - 12:04 | 2755023 awakening
awakening's picture

Monty Python, most appropriate.

I would have gone for the Ministry of Silly Walks angle though; as I expect a few more such walks would have been made by the peeps that bought the CS rumor (took it up the backside to put it politely).

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:24 | 2753576 fourchan
fourchan's picture

we have had perminant qe since 1915, the dilution of dollar is the effect and the stated and unstated reason the fed exists. dishonest money has built the stripmall splattered welfare state we now live in. the only differences are less qe or more. less theft from savers and the old or more. the fed is truly evil, like some punk mugging an 80 year old war vet, but these punks wear ninja suits and night vision goggles.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:25 | 2753579 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

CS just Facebooked those bitchez!

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:26 | 2753585 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

How does one say: "muppet" in the land of Bern and Davos?

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:28 | 2753589 e-man
e-man's picture

They're called German clients.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:30 | 2753593 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

 

Alberta Oil Sands / Competition for Idiots

It's just paper folks; it's just paper. Without labor, capital vanishes, middle class first. Capital always “thinks” that it can extort labor with paper, paid to the middle class, until it learns, the hard way, once the distillation process is complete, that it cannot. Whoever is left standing installs the bridge, if their pieces fit together in the necessary ac wave to complete the circuit, with the necessary negative feedback loop. Those that have been preparing will do well, because they will not get run over by the stampeding herd.

It's about productivity, relative to nature, and, contrary to empire false assumption, nature is measuring you. Tithing is not about money; it's about community. When you look at the 10% of actual community production, and place it back into the feedback loop, to guide the local economy, by ensuring that its metabolism is sustained and the necessary surplus for trade is grown, you will see the problems immediately, that are otherwise hidden by the false assumption of money and the empire propaganda machine sustaining it from the womb, which returns a surplus to non-performing capital, the gravity that now contains and is crushing the global economy.

Take a look at the finances of Alberta, relative to the finances of Canada, and then take a look at the proposed solution, North Dakota, in the US. It's ugly, an implied contract price of $95 barrel. Obama or Romney, Bernanke or someone else, 6 of one, half dozen of the other...sooner or later has become later.

The only people cultists hate more than each other is everyone else. Who you know, who you ...is not an economy. The real economy is not collapsing; the empire is. Nature will be here long after these a-h- s are dead and buried.

If I have surplus, give it to you, and measure my return over time...the “evil” empire is not your enemy; the enemy is the hall of mirrors between you and your self, which exists of your own free will. Hard to believe...pioneers actually walked 2000 miles to Oregon, and their descendants can't bring themselves to walk to the grocery store, or hire a stranger, the will of which they are entirely dependent upon, to complete the work required. You just can't find labor anymore, surprise, surprise.

If a community will not accept you and your spouse at the inn, continue until you find a community that will. There is never a lack of gravity for the necessary transformation, on earth or anywhere else.

Spin that wheel again...watch how everyone bets, set the odds, and wonder why the dc computer crashes.

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:36 | 2753774 magpie
magpie's picture

bla bla bla

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:30 | 2753595 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Whoops!

I meant to say "put on a $50K DV01 short long at 1.64% and expect a steep selloff climb when the Fed disappoints, with a 1.75% 1.55% target."

Sorry about that (Muppets).

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:27 | 2753754 knukles
knukles's picture

Compliance made me do it.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:29 | 2753597 JimRogers
JimRogers's picture

Burnt me. But I'd short that confetti with or without CS's approval.

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:31 | 2753599 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Jackson Corn Hoie.   Hope and Change.  The West getting a real taste of Oba-ma's African Islamism.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:31 | 2753601 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It is not central planning, it's central fucking.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:32 | 2753610 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

it's central plundering

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:32 | 2753605 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

LOL.  TVIX wasn't enough.  CS had to stick it to the muppets again.  WOW.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:42 | 2753609 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

that trade seemed designed to fail. if they do qe everyone front runs the fed and buys treasuries. if no qe then the market tanks and people idiotically pile into treasuries...

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:48 | 2753662 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

Goldman is congratulating Credit Suisse on a muppet fleecing job well done.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:01 | 2753690 malikai
malikai's picture

I can't wait to see CS's "apology" note.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 16:28 | 2753760 knukles
knukles's picture

Compliance made us do it

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:34 | 2753613 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

like i said three days ago...

 

 

"he's actually been pretty predictable. everyone already knows there won't be QE, which is why this trade won't work. Buy the rumor sell the news. Treasuries will probably rally a few bps. "

 

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:40 | 2753634 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah we all said it. I hear you. Good call.

Fri, 08/31/2012 - 15:35 | 2753619 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Todays market looks like it is Take your Kid to work day at 33 Liberty. 

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