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How To Lose $400,000 With Credit Suisse Betting On A Big Jackson Hole Disappointment
This Tuesday, we gave the podium to Credit Suisse's rates group with "How To Make $500,000 With Credit Suisse Betting On A Big Jackson Hole Disappointment" who in turn suggested that one of the best risk return opportunities heading into J-Hole, was to go short the 10 Year betting on disappointment by Bernanke (as a reminder earlier today we showed that virtually 100% of QE was already priced in). Well, Bernanke came and went, and although our personal take on the speech was broadly negative, which highlighted the adverse side effects of what would happen if there is another big QE round, and substantially toning the exuberant language from the latest FOMC minutes, which had previously made it seem that the majority of Fed presidents thought more easing should be imminent resulting in another centrally-planned market rip, the stock market did not agree with our take. At least not initially. As for Credit Suisse, it said to "put on a $50K DV01 short at 1.64% and expect a steep selloff when the Fed disappoints, with a 1.75% target. If all works out according to plan, everyone involved should be $500,000 richer at market close on Friday with Bollingers all around." Turns out nothing worked out quite as expected. In fact, as a result of the J-Hole remarks, we have had another stock buying spree of anything that is not nailed down, with gold popping the most, the DJIA soaring as much as 150 (although rapidly taking on water), and the 10 year... well, let's just say anyone who was on the other side of the CS prop traders, sometimes called "flow" for Volcker Rule purposes, is now down -$400,000 on a trade that was supposed to be a +$500,000 meatpacking extravaganza.
And, as usually happens, we warned of precisely the "other" thing happening when everyone expects one outcome.
If history is any guide, CS is right, and this will be the easiest $500 grand ever made. Then again, if there is one thing central planning has taught us, is that under central bankers with no world experience, history never rhymes.
Enjoying central planning yet?
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"Goldman Suisse"?
It was a setup. However, it is hard to believe the market is still up considering what he said. He put the monkey on congress where it should be, but we all know they are inept.
I knew it! Stolper does have a twin!
I keep tellin ya
It was a single birth
Stolper was the placenta...
Well, one thing's for sure, it's bolli, blow, and expensive czech hooker night over at the CS offices tonight.
Take that Muppets. See you again on Sept. 13. And if you ever get tired of being beaten like dusty rugs, there is always one ounce silver coins (Maples and Eagles)
hehe... you said meatpacking...
Shut up Bevis
Suck it CS,ZH rules!
When in doubt... FADE and RUN!!!! RUN!!!
He put the monkey on congress where it should be, but we all know they are inept.
Yep,they sure are,when the head of the real monkey's would veto anything constructive they came up with(with a Dem Senate,no way it could happen,even if possible), remember O's agenda has worked to a "T".
If he lost somehow, he's STILL accomplished his mission,at least 75% fo it.
And Bernie, is not INEPT?........................Please!
Called passing the buck.
He put the monkey on congress where it should be, but we all know they are inept.
Yep,they sure are,when the head of the real monkey's would veto anything constructive they came up with(with a Dem Senate,no way it could happen,even if possible), remember O's agenda has worked to a "T".
If he lost somehow, he's STILL accomplished his mission,at least 75% of it.
And Bernie, is not INEPT?........................Please!
Called passing the buck.
Goldman Switzerland sucks the retail crowd and
as the real Goldman, bets against them and makes the buck for the prop trade
too easy really
Yes. Way too easy. Even ZH readers were mostly taken in. I was one of maybe 3 people on that original thread that said fade it.
That was one ugly mother-fibbing muppet face-ripper trade from CS.
Even thieving scumbags have to have something to aspire to become.
No, Debit Suisse.
That's a good one, but I prefer Union Banksters of Switzerland
The trade still could work -- governments like to make major "bad news" announcements over a three-day weekend.
How large the opening ES gap down will be if Israel bombs Iran?
Got Margin?
I do not remember the financial media to be so desperate to prop up the market before a three-day weekend. Hilsenrath writing five "QE is Guaranteed" articles a day. Pasani is telling outright lies...
Did they all get a White House Memo?
I'm sure watching gold and silver close at the day, week, month, and yes, even the (trailing) quarter high is doing wonders for their holiday plans.
Doing fucking wonders for mine!
The muppets are on their way over to the cash4gold right now to sort this out.
In today's "market", that would be +100.
2 years on ZH and still a muppet.
That's gonna leave a mark!
It's only a book entry and once Corzined, this has negligable consequence.
"I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!"
"We're closin' for lunch."
"Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique."
"Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?"
"I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!"
"No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting."
Monty Python, most appropriate.
I would have gone for the Ministry of Silly Walks angle though; as I expect a few more such walks would have been made by the peeps that bought the CS rumor (took it up the backside to put it politely).
we have had perminant qe since 1915, the dilution of dollar is the effect and the stated and unstated reason the fed exists. dishonest money has built the stripmall splattered welfare state we now live in. the only differences are less qe or more. less theft from savers and the old or more. the fed is truly evil, like some punk mugging an 80 year old war vet, but these punks wear ninja suits and night vision goggles.
CS just Facebooked those bitchez!
How does one say: "muppet" in the land of Bern and Davos?
They're called German clients.
Alberta Oil Sands / Competition for Idiots
It's just paper folks; it's just paper. Without labor, capital vanishes, middle class first. Capital always “thinks” that it can extort labor with paper, paid to the middle class, until it learns, the hard way, once the distillation process is complete, that it cannot. Whoever is left standing installs the bridge, if their pieces fit together in the necessary ac wave to complete the circuit, with the necessary negative feedback loop. Those that have been preparing will do well, because they will not get run over by the stampeding herd.
It's about productivity, relative to nature, and, contrary to empire false assumption, nature is measuring you. Tithing is not about money; it's about community. When you look at the 10% of actual community production, and place it back into the feedback loop, to guide the local economy, by ensuring that its metabolism is sustained and the necessary surplus for trade is grown, you will see the problems immediately, that are otherwise hidden by the false assumption of money and the empire propaganda machine sustaining it from the womb, which returns a surplus to non-performing capital, the gravity that now contains and is crushing the global economy.
Take a look at the finances of Alberta, relative to the finances of Canada, and then take a look at the proposed solution, North Dakota, in the US. It's ugly, an implied contract price of $95 barrel. Obama or Romney, Bernanke or someone else, 6 of one, half dozen of the other...sooner or later has become later.
The only people cultists hate more than each other is everyone else. Who you know, who you ...is not an economy. The real economy is not collapsing; the empire is. Nature will be here long after these a-h- s are dead and buried.
If I have surplus, give it to you, and measure my return over time...the “evil” empire is not your enemy; the enemy is the hall of mirrors between you and your self, which exists of your own free will. Hard to believe...pioneers actually walked 2000 miles to Oregon, and their descendants can't bring themselves to walk to the grocery store, or hire a stranger, the will of which they are entirely dependent upon, to complete the work required. You just can't find labor anymore, surprise, surprise.
If a community will not accept you and your spouse at the inn, continue until you find a community that will. There is never a lack of gravity for the necessary transformation, on earth or anywhere else.
Spin that wheel again...watch how everyone bets, set the odds, and wonder why the dc computer crashes.
bla bla bla
Whoops!
I meant to say "put on a $50K DV01 short long at 1.64% and expect a steep selloff climb when the Fed disappoints, with a 1.75% 1.55% target."
Sorry about that (Muppets).
Compliance made me do it.
Burnt me. But I'd short that confetti with or without CS's approval.
Jackson Corn Hoie. Hope and Change. The West getting a real taste of Oba-ma's African Islamism.
It is not central planning, it's central fucking.
it's central plundering
LOL. TVIX wasn't enough. CS had to stick it to the muppets again. WOW.
that trade seemed designed to fail. if they do qe everyone front runs the fed and buys treasuries. if no qe then the market tanks and people idiotically pile into treasuries...
Goldman is congratulating Credit Suisse on a muppet fleecing job well done.
I can't wait to see CS's "apology" note.
Compliance made us do it
like i said three days ago...
"he's actually been pretty predictable. everyone already knows there won't be QE, which is why this trade won't work. Buy the rumor sell the news. Treasuries will probably rally a few bps. "
Yeah we all said it. I hear you. Good call.
Todays market looks like it is Take your Kid to work day at 33 Liberty.
QE by other means not felt by exchanges
Should have listened to ZH and do the opposite... would have 500 000$++ right now.
But you started with a million.
@golfhatesme
Every day the market looks like it is ROB your kids at work day at 33 Liberty.
There fixed it for you.
First post on ZH after lurking for close to 3 years. This is fight club! Bring it bitchez!
EDIT: Saweet! My first down arrow. Thanks Heywood!
Yes it does, Klink, Jawohl.
On a little off topic side note. Many people are trying to dig under the financial fence of oppression. Found this interesting.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_ARGENTINA_CREDIT_CARDS?SITE=AP...
Coming to an America near you!
It is not coming to an America near you, it is already here, but called a use tax.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_tax
Below, is a link that shows as of today, what states do, and do not, have a use tax, yet.
http://www.salestaxinstitute.com/rates.html
today no greater evidence of a market thats a fraud. no qe , 3 day weekend, a gift of green from the algos and you would think there would be a screens lighting up with "ill take mine and call it a week" . DEAD. Yup. Computers dont go on three day weekends and book profits. .. and they wonder why everyone is out.
I GOT SCREWED ON THIS.
withdraw your capital and with it buy potentially productive land and some goats and pigs...make sure you have access to water.
edit: +1 for the honesty.
The point is: there is always the other side which is ready to sell for a certain price. For one or another more or less good reason. Doesn't apply to paper only, but to precious metal as well. Always keep that in mind.
Credit Suisse is part of the NWO so why would anyone have trusted them in the first place?
Fuck Bernanke, Fuck Timmay, Fuck banks, and fuck 'em without any lube.
If everybody went long goats, firewood, pigs and (edit: seeds)...bankers, politicians and their financiers starving to death will solve our so called "over-population" problem.
edit: ever wondered why from between the grades of 1 to 12 and then into unie they didn't teach you how to grow veggies, husbandry or how to chop wood?
Let me get this straight...There are still some JOKERS who walk into the CASINO and ask the HOUSE where to place his/her BETS? ... BWHahahahahahahahahah!!!!!
Did I miss something or did Hilsenrath's headline just change from
Bernake signals readiness to do more
TO
Bernake leaves little doubt he's ready to act.
i can't remember what I am reading anymore. Losing it to twisted logic.
Stick with ipads, e-readers, iphone, whatever. It is so much easier to rewrite history.
Oh just read the major headlines at the same time. CNBC interpreted Bernank as saying No More Easing while WSJ headline was Bernank will do all that's necessary.
Later in the day they changed the headlines to who knows what.
Ah, the dangers of reverse rehypothecated reverse psychology.
Off Topic somewhat, but I wrote this in an old thread and wondered if anyone agrees:
The market is rising because of ETFs, right?
Managers forced to buy stocks because they're in an index someone is purchasing...
I mean, who can honestly believe Walmart, MO, or T are even average values right now. Question is: how does this crash? Lowered earning estimates doesn't seem to dissuade the market.
I can't imagine buying any large cap, individual stocks right now, because hardly any are values. So my guess is dumbos who are still contributing to 401ks have "money managers" buying SPY, and this is causing all the ridiculous valuations. Am I off?
I wouldn't doubt it.
How else can they get their bonus if not having all that captive money to play with?
And, how can money be made on the coming correction if that captive muppet money isn't plowed into furrows of salt laden sand?
Its rising because of printed money, so ETF's could be an unintended part of this. I think it will crash when everybody outside of the major banking/political circles takes their balls and walks home so to speak. When more and more people say "fuck this" withdraw all their money and capital either to survive the next few months and or to buy some land.
This planet has an abundance of resources to support us all happily. This idea just needs to reach critical mass...or when people in cities start to starve. Whether this happens tomorrow, by November or in several years I don't know.
Be done with it, take your ball and go home, nothing will freak these nutbars out more than that.
I only trade here and there, and profits are turned into silver.
So, I am pretty much out of markets.
Regarding printing money: they've been doing that since 2000 and stocks have been mired in this range. This year, though, they've been going up as unemployment rises, gas rises, wages fall, and all the "record profits" (i.e. fat trimming) has been completed. So, I simply don't get it. All I can figure is the few people still working are stupid and putting their money into DIA and SPY, and managers buy the underlying stocks. How else can MO in the high 30s be explained? Dividend chasing? Maybe. WalMart in the mid 70s--really? DE in the 80s (does printing money make everyone want to buy a tractor?)? These aren't great dividend stocks. I mean, it just makes no sense.
It can't be explained. If I want to buy the corner store that is doing a good business in my village I will start my bidding at 2x pe...with the goal of getting it for 4x. If its a safe business I'll pay 5x pe for the business, so lets give the markets another point or thwo or three for liquidity. So add in some growth prospects you'll add in another few points.
Back to your question...nobody can sell because the volumes are shite, if the holder of equity currently valued or marked at market at 100x pe tries to sell they'll get no bid.
That's where we're at, nobody who holds equities can sell because there is no bid, so in answer to your question yes they can mark these markets up forever, but that doesn't mean squat. The closing price of a major index means squat.
Try to find somebody to take your block at closing price or on the bid or even close to it.
Its done, they can ramp this market up higher FOREVER even if the rest of the world begins to regress into the dark ages.
I agree that the price means nothing without a bid, but I trade in and out a few times per month and always am able to sell at my limit price. Are you talking about large positions that hedge funds own? I'd imagine those are harder to liquidate.
I guess the only other explanation would be if Bernake himself is in there buying equities. Someone or something who doesn't care about price and valuation is the buyer, and that is not retail. It's someone using your/our money.
Devo, yes small positions can be liquidated, but it's the large positions that dictate the market quotes. Absolutely in my mind that the Central Banks have been buying stocks...they are engaging in window dressing on a massive scale. A lot of PMs are onboard because they can't sell big positions so they sit back and let whoever lift some offers and keep things "stable".
Whether this comes directly from the Fed, Central Banks in general or because of liquidity sloshing around I can't say for sure, in my mind I suspect its the affects of QE. Banks get free money so they buy equities to keep their balance sheet looking good, and now they have to buy more. Every available bit of capital they have is used to keep their holdings marked to a profitable level...
How does it end? Well the Fed can continue to give them capital to shore up their balance sheets...I'd say forever?
Seriously, they can do this forever, the price of gas and food increasing as they do may crimp their plans though.
edit: I don't think it comes directly from the Fed, or is a policy of the Fed, its just an outcome of QE. The Fed is losing control as the banks scramble to keep their books intact and keep from blowing up. They could QE another 3 trillion and it would all go into commodities and equities, while the Bernanke scratches his head in between diddling young boys and asks himself "why isn't the economy getting better"
These people have blinders on, they're not as smart as they think they are.
Yeah, I pretty much agree. I think there's some legit yield chasing, and I can understand some moves (like Apple), but overall I completely agree.
Seriously, they can do this forever, the price of gas and food increasing as they do may crimp their plans though.
I agree, and it seems obvious, but things rarely play out the way we think. I've been trying to come up with how with ways we get out of this mess with no default, crash etc. What if solar or wind become viable? Natural gas? Seems if we had a low cost energy they could then keep inflating forever. Also, repricing gold to backstop the debt (e.g. the govt declares "gold is now 100,000/oz! we now have a budget surplus!") Short of those two things, I think either the banks fail or the government defaults. Yeah? I'm wondering how viable either "solution" I mentioned is...and whether they'd try to confiscate gold again before repricing it.
If any of you would like to make some real money, you can always do the opposite of whatever my latest trade is. Right now I am sitting on a large position in VXX (not being sophisticated enough to know any better way to bet on "all hell breaking loose").
I am hedging this play by injecting novacaine directly into my brainstem.
"If any of you would like to make some real money, you can always do the opposite of whatever my latest trade is."
Only if you tell us if you're long or short, and divvy up the novocaine ;)
(What is DV01 anyway? :s)
I am long and tall. Not a chance on the novocaine! At least until I can schedule my lobotomy.
(What is DV01 anyway? :s) I don't understand this question
If you got to ZH, surely you can use the Google machine?
DV01 is the value of a 1 basis point move of a position. So when CS recommended a 50k DV01 short position, they're saying one should place a big enough bet that for every 1 basis point increase in the US 10 year (conversely, decrease in price), one would net $50k.
This is also known as "Stoplering the Muppets" or an STM trade reco for CS's prop traders. The value of a particular STM is only limited by the recommending firms imagination an bullshitting capabilities, but can run into the billions.
Thanks & apologies. Google would have been my friend. But sometimes the acronyms are difficult to google (&/ the googleable explanations goobledygoogle...)
VXX is going to zero, hate to be the bearer of bad news. Nobody should touch inverse ETNs, ever.
for the retail investor - shorts will be crushed. crushed. not allowed. when the robots finally sell off - you'll be so long everything and begging big brother to let you join the believers. hahahahaha. it's sick and perverse, because they keep claiming there is a market. there is no market. it's a casino. they own it. you got a problem with that? anybody seen jon corzine lately? jamie dimon breaking a sweat? lloyd blankfck doing just fein, now that he keeps his god blessed trap shut. and nobody even mentions tom montag - he got himself flying under the radar - and he's not pretty and he doesn' work for cheap.
for the retail investor - shorts will be crushed. crushed. not allowed. when the robots finally sell off - you'll be so long everything and begging big brother to let you join the believers. hahahahaha. it's sick and perverse, because they keep claiming there is a market. there is no market. it's a casino. they own it. you got a problem with that? anybody seen jon corzine lately? jamie dimon breaking a sweat? lloyd blankfck doing just fein, now that he keeps his god blessed trap shut. and nobody even mentions tom montag - he got himself flying under the radar - and he's not pretty and he doesn' work for cheap.
Hi,
A big bad global storm is coming.
Rothschild Inc.
Hunker down & good luck for the next 18mths.
Regards
Oz's
rigged as it ever has been. please just shut it down. blow the whole thing up. every last trader.. shut it down. Today its so fucking obvious.
shut it down, yes sir. Find hapiness and contentment as well (I found hapiness and contentment in watering veggies).
Dr. Seuss needs to come up with a book on investing in today's financial world. That's one man I would listen to. So what if he is dead, he's still better than the Bernankyeeeeeeeeeeeeee....
The Bernanke is a child diddler, only a sick fuck like that could do what he does for a living.
I can't wait until the whole thing burns to the ground. Even if we turn into a third world country, I don't care. I just want to watch it all burn. QE3 = market up. No QE3 = market up. Am I missing something? Who the hell is buying these stocks?
I like my chances in a third world country type environment a lot more than I do my chances surviving to 75 in this corporate/governmental fascist state that we have now. I will do fine, my immediate family will thrive as welll, maybe that's what they're afraid of, many people like me out there they can't control?
Hmmm - - if you ask "How can these bastards screw me over the most ?" and place your bets accordingly . . . that works out at least 50% of the time, usually. Sometimes.
As I had said, Bernanke wont do anything....well, he did not.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-make-500000-credit-suisse-betting-big-...
The 10 year and the 30 year yields continue their slide down, following a more than 30 year trend.
Muppets have been well, muppetted!
Japan 10 year is at 0.80 and the US is still at 1.57. Shame on US! Lot of 'hard work' ahead.
in simple language, the once assured expectancy of markets tanking on the slightest hint of "positive" economic news and a FED backdown on possible stimulus has now reached a new point of inflection. QE or no QE, it seems now that having backed itself inextricably into a corner, the FED is rapidly proceeding down the road to a position of increasing irrelevance, perhaps by design.
apparently Au is sniffing this out and, as the paper futures and options contracts of the COMEX assume a similar position of increasing irrelevance in respect of physical holdings, more and more investors along with Central Banks, commercial and sovereign funds, and even the "man on the street" are funneling the last shreds of failing capital into the tangible and appreciating assets of physical gold and silver.
now that the perceptions that have masked the impossible obligations of liabilities and the subsequent destruction of capital are being stripped away, QE to infinity, obviously inevitable and equally obviously with less and less net effect, will give way to the realization that the black hole of derivatives contracts will yield the trillions and trillions of fiat flooding down that endless chasm equally ineffectual and even more critically irrelevant.
the Lehmaned,Corzined, MF'ed Global. Peregrined, beKnighted, Sentineled,JPM'd hypothecated, missing, and stolen triillions are just the tip of this proverbial iceberg which is rapidly sinking this Titanic of a financial system that is heading rapidly to the bottom. Got a life boat?
You know perfectly well we don't have that kind of money!
I don't understand how announcement of another hyperinflationary intervention could be good for the 10-yr note, while a pass would be bad (which pass, I believe, was a no brainer given next week's DNC). Being that a pass ultimately risks debt deflation of exceedingly concentrated garbage manufactured by "the best and brightest," thus wouldn't the safest, most liquid credit instrument in the world be made more attractive, particularly given that the banking system is stuffed to the gills with many times more credits put at greater risk by a QE pass?
Unrelated, how about that Bernice so quickly putting Corker's advice to practice in humility re: the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of extraordinary measures the Fed has taken thus far. Well, so much for the Fed being politically independent...
There wasn't anyone dumb enough outside of politicians to do such a thing. So who cares.
Confucius said." No one knows what happens next, so dont be jackass and outline trades"......or something like that, maybe it was Solomon.
Confucius said: "no one know future, so don't be jackass and listen to piece of shit banker"... or something like that...maybe it was Solomon. It was either Confucius, Solomon, or Jesus.... One of those three. I'm pretty sure...