How To Make $500,000 With Credit Suisse Betting On A Big Jackson Hole Disappointment

Tyler Durden's picture

A week ago everyone was convinced that in three days, Bernanke would reveal the second coming or whatever the equivalent biblical event is these days that would send the Dow to 36,000 in a heartbeat. We laughed at such naive suggestions. Then over the past five days the market has seen a profound transformation with what was initially a seed of doubt that the Chairman may in fact disappoint his stock buying disciples, having sprouted into a full blown weed of outright denial, fear and loathing. Which makes sense: in a world in which everything is jawboning, everyone's hope is always on the event just over the event horizon, but never on the one that is imminent: that way when the inevitable disappointment happens one can just say it was all premeditated and is coming "next time." However, in case the market has finally had enough of being led by the nose, lied to, and does throw a temper tantrum, there are way to take advantage of this. One bank that suggests just a way to do this without trading in that insane asset class known as stocks, where up is down, down is purple, and the triangle-square-square-circle killer combo sequence now works in reverse, is Credit Suisse, which suggests to put on a short bond position in anticipation of a major selloff which should inevitably accompany a disappointment from the Fed. Their suggestion: put on a $50K DV01 short at 1.64% and expect a steep selloff when the Fed disappoints, with a 1.75% target. If all works out according to plan, everyone involved should be $500,000 richer at market close on Friday with Bollingers all around.

If history is any guide, CS is right, and this will be the easiest $500 grand ever made. Then again, if there is one thing central planning has taught us, is that under central bankers with no world experience, history never rhymes.

From Credit Suisse:

As has become tradition at this point, considerable anticipation has been building around Chairman Bernanke’s upcoming speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. With all of the chatter around whether the Fed is going to announce further easing at the next meeting, Bernanke’s every word will be scrutinized to glean any indications of the direction in which he’s leaning.


While it is not uncommon to remember Jackson Hole as the venue for some of the most important announcements in the recent policy history of the Fed (remember QE2?), Bernanke has more often than not been loath to make any type of strong commitment.


Even the 2010 speech can be better characterized as a discussion of the options at the Fed’s disposal—a far cry from the “QE2 announcement” that it is often remembered as being.


In all, regardless of our wistful memories of the Chairman coming to the rescue in Wyoming, history shows us that whatever expectations may be, the speech often ends in a sell-off.


With this in mind – and following on the back of the current low-volume re-rally in the market – we recommend taking a tactical short into Friday’s speech. We add a $50,000 DV01 short in the current 10-year note (yield of 1.6400% at the time of this writing) to our model portfolio, targeting a short-term back-up to 1.75%. The risk is that 10s break from their usual behavior around Bernanke’s speech and continue their rally. Note that we remain medium-term bullish with a 1.35% year-end forecast for 10s.


Below we show the average movement in intraday yields on 10s for the week of Bernanke’s speech going back to 2008, along with the movements for each speech day. Although the behavior leading up to 10 a.m. differs year to year, 10s have consistently sold off, jumping 7bps on average during the day on Friday. Much of the move occurs in the initial moments

And the empirical evidence behind CS' thesis:

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I have a DIY bookshelf and a Mexican strat in trade, can haz buy-in?

FEDbuster's picture

We need a Zerohedge Hedge Fund, too many good trade ideas are found here not to take advantage.

Darkness's picture

Agreed, why hasn't anyone made progress on this yet? 3 and 25% sounds about right. 

Zeilschip's picture

Yeah, shorting T's with Europe potentially blowing up, yeah sounds reaaally appealing.

CPL's picture

Go look up TIm Sykes you noobs.

True.North's picture

2% in gold, 20% in silver. physical only.

Grinder74's picture

I hear a savvy super smart guy named Jon is looking to start a new hedge fund.

graneros's picture

I don't see why not. I've played many a Mexican Strat and they both sound good and play good.  I don't know why they have such a bad rep.  You can keep the bookshelf.

slaughterer's picture

"put on a $50K DV01 short at 1.64% and expect a steep selloff when the Fed disappoints, with a 1.75% target"

1.) timing will be everything to this trade

2.) it has the potential to backfire quite quickly for a few whipsaws.  (Prepare adult diapers)

3.)  How many institutional prop traders will be fading this ala Squid?

roadsnbridges's picture

Stolper has a brother?

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Nope, it was a single birth...Stolper was the placenta...

jekyll island's picture

I listened to a "guru" last year and shorted bonds.  Don't have to tell you how that worked out.  Bonds will eventually tank, but everyone who has bet that "this will be the time" has been devastated.  Color me unimpressed, will just stack more Gold and Silver.  It's the antibond anyway.

FEDbuster's picture

Closed my IB account this month (h/t Ann Barnhardt), and moved that money into pre-64 quarters (lots of them), couple more AKs & ammo, more long term storage food, etc...  Still have the Roth IRA, but boy am I tempted to take the "hit" and cash it, too.

Hype Alert's picture

If The Bernank doesn't drop a golden egg on the podium, it will be a disappointment!

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Yer friendly neighbourhood PM trader here.

At the auction today, all PMs selling at 20-30% over scrap. Sovereigns at £270 plus comms.

Its freaky - the market can't get enough of the hard stuff.

Go figger...

Abraxas's picture

Who's this Fred guy everybody's talking about?

Diesel Seven's picture

Credit Suisse . . . blah, blah, blah, where where they in January telling us to short near-term VIX and go long SPX.

Dr. Engali's picture

I hope I can get the house mortgaged in time to put on this trade.

kito's picture

i may not make $500,000 in my qe3 bets, but im content with my maple glazed turkey sandwich on whole wheat italian, lettuce, tomato, onion and honey mustard............

Dr. Engali's picture

LOL    ;->   If I make $500,000 on a Qe trade kito I'll buy you your own deli. Well maybe not a real deli..more like the buy in rights to a Subway franchise.

fonzannoon's picture

Hey guys I am half watching this and half jammed up but are they recommending to short tresuries as a result of QE3 disappointment? If so.....yeah right.

The bond guys have taken yields from almost 1.9% to 1.6% in the last week....and not because they think he is going to print.

Dr. Engali's picture

If the Bernank or Draghi don't turn on the presses soon then there is going to be a flight to "safety" I wouldn't want to be short treasuries in front of that.

mkkby's picture

Finally an intelligent comment.  Past QE cause bonds to be sold, yields up.  QE dissappointment means safe to hold bonds, yields down.  This trade is a loser.  I'm surprised some of the Tylers forgot.

kito's picture

fonz, im sensing that you are developing a bond fetish......................

fonzannoon's picture

nope but i did step in front of the bond train a few years ago when i thought i had it all figured out. I still have the tracks on my ass to show for it.

Dr. Engali's picture

Well when you have it all figure out let me know because I've certainly been run over by a few trains in my lifetime.

ThirdWorldDude's picture

Long latex suits and whips?!?

stocktivity's picture

Gutsy...but I wouldn't do the trade. Romney has said the Bernack will not be Fed chairman if he wins. Benny need Obama to win. He may not announce QE3 but he will give enough BS hopium.

Bam_Man's picture

The only way to win is to not play.

If you haven't already, leave the casino now and don't come back until it is under new management. And the old management is either dead or in prison.

YesWeKahn's picture

What if that asshole prints anyway?

Brother Sebastian's picture

That's exactly the got it right.  Benny-boy is a master of deception.  Tell the market one thing, do something else behind everyone's back.  No matter what happens, he will make big profits for his masters.

drivenZ's picture

he's actually been pretty predictable. everyone already knows there won't be QE, which is why this trade won't work. Buy the rumor sell the news. Treasuries will probably rally a few bps. 

Debt-Penitent's picture

Nothing else up til now has made sense, Why start now?
So: if commons sense says not to,,,Hell, He's printing for sure!!!

LongBalls's picture

When markets hang in the balance on every word puked by a central banker then it is very clear that the markets are broken. Place your bets boys and girls. In time...the house will always win. OR you can count your money while your sittin' at the table. Cause I don't think there will be time enough for countin' when the dealers done. Kenny Rogers had it wrong.

Brazillionaire's picture


August 31, 2012, Jackson Hole, Wyoming- In a surprise move today, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke calmed investor's fears by unveiling the Federal Reserve's latest program to calm investor's fears. Dubbed "Operation TotCon", the centerpiece of the new program involves taking the Federal Reserve public, with an IPO scheduled for late October. The central bank will trade under the symbol JACK. Market watchers were unclear as to whether the phrases "you ain't got JACK" and "you got JACK" would acquire new meaning. Quasi-paradoxically, the phrase "if you ain't got JACK, you got jack" may be true; however, the phrase "if you got JACK, you ain't got jack", may no longer be allowed. When asked about the motivation for this latest effort, Bernanke said, "for too long, the markets have been seen in a 'risk-on, risk-off' modality. With Operation TotCon, credit for prevailing market sentiment will be properly allocated, as we anticipate ackowledgement of a 'JACK-on, JACK-off' trade to carry the market predominantly forward." A Fed spokeperson who wished to remain anonymous, said that Operation Totcon will begin 2 days prior to the IPO by buying controlling interest in all publicly traded companies on the New York Stock Exchange. In a related story, the Obama administration announced today that "day trading on margin" would now qualify as acceptable as a work requirement for receiving welfare benefits. 

At the time of this story, the DJIA had rallied 6,300 points in light trading.

Bunga Bunga's picture

I think you are correct, but the symbol will be "SUCK".

Brazillionaire's picture

Much appreciated. BTW, is you had a son, would he be WaterBoy?

LongSoupLine's picture

Future breaking news story:


This just in:  Every middle-class American's 401k was Hi-Jacked today.

mkkby's picture

Great, then I can hold my gov motors and facebook shares until the next jack-off.

Dr. Engali's picture

Now that everybody is all gloomy about Jackson whole watch old Ben come out and say "put your party hats on boys and girls because I'm going to print like a mother f#*%^r!"

Dubaibanker's picture

If he prints, he has a problem, if he does not print, he has a problem.....

Tick tock, tick tock....what will Bernanke do?

I say...he will sit on the sidelines....some call it nothing....but words will be worth something and will help push the can down...His main role is stability, and stability is what he will bring. The last 30 years, yields have gone down, Germans and Swiss are running negative...why can't the US?

Billions or perhaps trillions are flowing back to the US with corporates sucking profits through Apple, Exxon, Starbucks and what not or selling planes, guns and missiles to anyone who needs 'security' or 'nuclear deterrent' value proposition.


dracos_ghost's picture

I just hope they have water on the dais for him. Last time, I was getting cotton mouth just watching the dry slapping of his lips.

In the end, "Stupid is as stupid does". He will pull the trigger. The elite monkeys need more bananas to trade. They bring nothing else to the table.


Racer's picture

So CS is in effect gambling on black or red with 10X leverage, anyone who allows them to 'manage' their money is a fool

drivenZ's picture

not really. you can make(or lose) 500k with no leverage if you buy(sell) a 10MM position. DV01 doesn't equal leverage.  

slaughterer's picture


NAZ up .01%

SPY up .02%

Russell 2000 (RUT) up .45%


roadsnbridges's picture

Hot money just unsure where to go.  Waiting for 16.20 meeself.

Aquaman's picture

I wonder if there is an etf for that.  In a world where everything can be created to trade on, I'd be surprised if there wasn't?