How To Make Your Year In 3 Days: Do The Opposite Of Whitney Tilson

Tyler Durden's picture

The last time Whitney Tilson decided to go public (on a completely unsolicited basis) with his investment thesis of short Netflix, the market took him to the toolshed leading to Tilson (as usual) underperforming the S&P by a ridiculous amount. This time around, with his very public announcement that he is now long NFLX and GMCR... things don't seem to be much different. We have created a CIX screen which is basically an anti-Tilson ETF: long GMCR (on the inevitable squeeze) and short Netflix on the billions in off balance sheet liabilities that somehow were missing from Tilson's thesis, and the result is...

That's right: anyone who had taken the other side of Tilson would be up 21.6% since Friday.

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Ahmeexnal's picture

Toolson....go back to flipping burgers boy.

Smithovsky's picture

Whitney, can you do us a favor and go short gold?  Or at least just announce to the world (without anyone asking, of course) that you think that the inedible barbaric metal bubble has burst.  What the hell, go ahead and do the same for silver.  

Thanks bud.  

Don Birnam's picture

"Whitney can push his thesis on our show anytime. We'll always make him feel welcome !"

redpill's picture

Netflix is a long term dog, any of these jokers that are trying to play the momo in the meantime in one direction or another are nothing more than casino patrons picking roulette squares.

knight99's picture

wow. they should just be long gold with 5x leverage and sit back and enjoy the gains

Carlyle Groupie's picture

Time to take a vacation. Panama? The Ocean Club is open for business.

redpill's picture

Ever play roulette?  Well here's a little tip:




Always bet on black.


Ragnar24's picture

...which is a bet that corruption and crony capitalism will prevail.

AldoHux_IV's picture

All we need now is biggity barton biggs to say he is going super duper long-- that should be the catalyst for markets to catch up.

By the way, END THE FED.

slaughterer's picture

I wha wha wha ... want t, t, t, to te, te tell the view, the viewers of b, b, b, bloomberg, that, that, my, my, my, my fun, fun, fund is g, g, go, go, going, 300, 300, no, 400% long eq, eq equities, to, to, today.

TeamDepends's picture

We know!  Fu, Chu, and Wu keep saying that everything gon' be alright but reality seems to disagree. 

SheepDog-One's picture

If all these insiders are getting it so wrong, how can any retail be placing their bets right? Lucky roll of the dice here and there I guess is possible, but with all these stories of big funds and traders getting taken to the woodshed, retail must really be lucky to even tread water lately.

Smiddywesson's picture

If retail is trading paper, rather than digging in the back yard with the Sheepdog, they are going to lose everything. 

firstdivision's picture

who says that tilson is an insider anymore?  he may have been booted out of the circlejerk.

Hmm...'s picture

is retail even there any more? 

it was my understanding that retail left the building some time ago, and now it's mainly the sharks eating the weaker sharks.

the only one who wins are those who are connected.  The so called "market makers"... no?

With the exception of people who have 401k's and IRA's (and who were lucky enough to not have to cash it out/take out a loan to cover their debt), it seems to me that very few of my friends/associates are in the market these days.

Probably one reason why the politocos are desperate to "privatize" social security.  Try to force more money into Gargantua's mouth.

dwdollar's picture

My wife's coworkers are now borrowing against their 401ks. Complete stupidity... They'll be lucky to break even because I kind of doubt they'll ever see the money in their 401ks. There's hundreds of Corzines out there just waiting to push the line of what's "acceptable" a little further. LOL...

SilverDOG's picture

I have encouraged borrowing against 401k amongst friends, family and associates.

For a single purpose BUY SILVER.

Most will not see a dime per dollar purchasing power of their 401k when access is granted.

Maximize your own govt./corporate stolen investment liquidity and borrow for your PM purchases.

One can sell small amounts to make payments, if unable for well known reasons. In the end, one will have paid "borrowed ponzi" back in full, and have PM in possession. 

Be quick about it. A PM drop then PM launch is very very close.


Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Why is that complete stupidity?  That may be the only way you get your money out before Big Uncle decides its his.  Besides, you just end up paying yourself back anyway.  And if you don't you just end up paying a penalty and taxes and at least you got something out of it, before it gets stolen.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

I have been thinking the same. Someone needs to figure out the relationship between Corzine, Paulson, and others who are making what appears to be stupid bets. I have to think there is something fishy here. Either they are being sacrificed or they are executing these things knowingly and possibly under duress.

dwdollar's picture

Retail doesn't care. They've been brainwashed to throw money at the market no matter how much they lose. "I'm doing it for longterm investment" they say to themselves as they quietly sulk. GMCR will be worth $1000/share someday! Hah! Keep dreaming.

slaughterer's picture

Tilson got a tip from Stolper.  

Obnoxio's picture

I imagine someone with a bigger stack can just come in and steal your chips once they know your strategy.

YesWeKahn's picture

"Smart" people usually make mistakes. You have to listen what Cramer say about John Paulson and Buffet yesterday.

The Axe's picture

glad someone else is trading like a jackass...

Smiddywesson's picture

I don't want to be smart.  I want to be rich.

The market punishes the fools and the smart people alike (Dentists). 

Only the wise, who understand it's not a market, are rewarded.

Bam_Man's picture

As I stated previously, this is textbook compulsive gambling behavior.

Anyone who has money "invested" with him should recognize this and take appropriate action while they still have the chance.

The Axe's picture

Hey,,,,anyone know why PSLV is getting the hammer...feels like some type of liquidation...something not right..????

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I don't see how Tilson is any different than Paulson, or ZH-favorite Kyle Bass for that matter.

Generally the more vocal these guys are, the worse investors they are.

They need to take a cue from Steve Cohen.

kengland's picture

or how about doing the opposite of this headline from ZH an hour ago...

"Guest Post: Attention Passengers on Global Equity Flight 2011: Assume Crash Positions"

LMAO....Had you gone long SPY you would have made a killing.

Bearish News's picture

Was thinking the other day that Gartman should offer an inverse ETF, would crush.

Texas Ginslinger's picture

“This economy is extremely strong. Profits are superb. The world economy is exploding with growth. To be sure, terrible problems lurk in the future: a slow-motion dollar crisis, huge Medicare deficits and energy shortages. But for now, the sell-off seems extreme, not to say nutty.”

“Some smart, brave people will make a fortune buying in these days, and then we’ll all wonder what the scare was about. ”

Ben Stein  August 12, 2007

slewie the pi-rat's picture

whitney tilson goes whitney houston

unplugged, BiCheZ!

practically a capella!

monopoly's picture

My simpleton way of investing seems to be working ok. Not as smart as Tilson. And looks like those expensive jeans not doing so well at the sexy retailer, again. ANF

Manny's picture

This is what happens when the insider information stops flowing.


ZeroPower's picture

...your ratio assumes Tilson is as long NFLX as he is short GMCR, which is unreasonable.

In any case, GMCR is completely ripping as of late.