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How To Make Your Year In 3 Days: Do The Opposite Of Whitney Tilson

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The last time Whitney Tilson decided to go public (on a completely unsolicited basis) with his investment thesis of short Netflix, the market took him to the toolshed leading to Tilson (as usual) underperforming the S&P by a ridiculous amount. This time around, with his very public announcement that he is now long NFLX and GMCR... things don't seem to be much different. We have created a CIX screen which is basically an anti-Tilson ETF: long GMCR (on the inevitable squeeze) and short Netflix on the billions in off balance sheet liabilities that somehow were missing from Tilson's thesis, and the result is...


That's right: anyone who had taken the other side of Tilson would be up 21.6% since Friday.

 

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Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:15 | 1883185 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Toolson....go back to flipping burgers boy.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:38 | 1883277 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

Whitney, can you do us a favor and go short gold?  Or at least just announce to the world (without anyone asking, of course) that you think that the inedible barbaric metal bubble has burst.  What the hell, go ahead and do the same for silver.  

Thanks bud.  

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:58 | 1883348 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

"Whitney can push his thesis on our show anytime. We'll always make him feel welcome !"

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/184/bq4c.jpg

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:15 | 1883187 redpill
redpill's picture

Netflix is a long term dog, any of these jokers that are trying to play the momo in the meantime in one direction or another are nothing more than casino patrons picking roulette squares.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:15 | 1883188 knight99
knight99's picture

wow. they should just be long gold with 5x leverage and sit back and enjoy the gains

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:16 | 1883192 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Time to take a vacation. Panama? The Ocean Club is open for business.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:18 | 1883201 redpill
redpill's picture

Ever play roulette?  Well here's a little tip:

 

 

 

Always bet on black.

/taxdodging

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:26 | 1883234 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Always bet on Carlyle.

http://www.youtube.com/OneCarlyle

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1883280 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

...which is a bet that corruption and crony capitalism will prevail.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:16 | 1883193 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

All we need now is biggity barton biggs to say he is going super duper long-- that should be the catalyst for markets to catch up.

By the way, END THE FED.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:19 | 1883205 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

LAO thanks Ty

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:19 | 1883208 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I wha wha wha ... want t, t, t, to te, te tell the view, the viewers of b, b, b, bloomberg, that, that, my, my, my, my fun, fun, fund is g, g, go, go, going, 300, 300, no, 400% long eq, eq equities, to, to, today.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:40 | 1883285 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

We know!  Fu, Chu, and Wu keep saying that everything gon' be alright but reality seems to disagree. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:44 | 1883295 fuu
fuu's picture

?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:19 | 1883211 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If all these insiders are getting it so wrong, how can any retail be placing their bets right? Lucky roll of the dice here and there I guess is possible, but with all these stories of big funds and traders getting taken to the woodshed, retail must really be lucky to even tread water lately.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:30 | 1883251 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

If retail is trading paper, rather than digging in the back yard with the Sheepdog, they are going to lose everything. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:32 | 1883256 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

who says that tilson is an insider anymore?  he may have been booted out of the circlejerk.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:33 | 1883259 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

is retail even there any more? 

it was my understanding that retail left the building some time ago, and now it's mainly the sharks eating the weaker sharks.

the only one who wins are those who are connected.  The so called "market makers"... no?

With the exception of people who have 401k's and IRA's (and who were lucky enough to not have to cash it out/take out a loan to cover their debt), it seems to me that very few of my friends/associates are in the market these days.

Probably one reason why the politocos are desperate to "privatize" social security.  Try to force more money into Gargantua's mouth.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:50 | 1883300 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

My wife's coworkers are now borrowing against their 401ks. Complete stupidity... They'll be lucky to break even because I kind of doubt they'll ever see the money in their 401ks. There's hundreds of Corzines out there just waiting to push the line of what's "acceptable" a little further. LOL...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1883470 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

I have encouraged borrowing against 401k amongst friends, family and associates.

For a single purpose BUY SILVER.

Most will not see a dime per dollar purchasing power of their 401k when access is granted.

Maximize your own govt./corporate stolen investment liquidity and borrow for your PM purchases.

One can sell small amounts to make payments, if unable for well known reasons. In the end, one will have paid "borrowed ponzi" back in full, and have PM in possession. 

Be quick about it. A PM drop then PM launch is very very close.

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:36 | 1883508 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Why is that complete stupidity?  That may be the only way you get your money out before Big Uncle decides its his.  Besides, you just end up paying yourself back anyway.  And if you don't you just end up paying a penalty and taxes and at least you got something out of it, before it gets stolen.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:35 | 1883263 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I have been thinking the same. Someone needs to figure out the relationship between Corzine, Paulson, and others who are making what appears to be stupid bets. I have to think there is something fishy here. Either they are being sacrificed or they are executing these things knowingly and possibly under duress.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:38 | 1883271 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Retail doesn't care. They've been brainwashed to throw money at the market no matter how much they lose. "I'm doing it for longterm investment" they say to themselves as they quietly sulk. GMCR will be worth $1000/share someday! Hah! Keep dreaming.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:20 | 1883213 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Tilson got a tip from Stolper.  

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:22 | 1883226 Obnoxio
Obnoxio's picture

I imagine someone with a bigger stack can just come in and steal your chips once they know your strategy.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:23 | 1883227 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

WT = Biggest Douche in the Universe:

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/153799/there-he-is

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:23 | 1883228 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

"Smart" people usually make mistakes. You have to listen what Cramer say about John Paulson and Buffet yesterday.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:23 | 1883230 The Axe
The Axe's picture

glad someone else is trading like a jackass...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:33 | 1883260 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I don't want to be smart.  I want to be rich.

The market punishes the fools and the smart people alike (Dentists). 

Only the wise, who understand it's not a market, are rewarded.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1883265 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

As I stated previously, this is textbook compulsive gambling behavior.

Anyone who has money "invested" with him should recognize this and take appropriate action while they still have the chance.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:36 | 1883266 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Hey,,,,anyone know why PSLV is getting the hammer...feels like some type of liquidation...something not right..????

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1883279 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I don't see how Tilson is any different than Paulson, or ZH-favorite Kyle Bass for that matter.

Generally the more vocal these guys are, the worse investors they are.

They need to take a cue from Steve Cohen.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:45 | 1883299 kengland
kengland's picture

or how about doing the opposite of this headline from ZH an hour ago...

"Guest Post: Attention Passengers on Global Equity Flight 2011: Assume Crash Positions"

LMAO....Had you gone long SPY you would have made a killing.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:47 | 1883305 Bearish News
Bearish News's picture

Was thinking the other day that Gartman should offer an inverse ETF, would crush.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:51 | 1883322 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

“This economy is extremely strong. Profits are superb. The world economy is exploding with growth. To be sure, terrible problems lurk in the future: a slow-motion dollar crisis, huge Medicare deficits and energy shortages. But for now, the sell-off seems extreme, not to say nutty.”

“Some smart, brave people will make a fortune buying in these days, and then we’ll all wonder what the scare was about. ”

Ben Stein  August 12, 2007

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:52 | 1883354 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

whitney tilson goes whitney houston

unplugged, BiCheZ!

practically a capella!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:01 | 1883364 monopoly
monopoly's picture

My simpleton way of investing seems to be working ok. Not as smart as Tilson. And looks like those expensive jeans not doing so well at the sexy retailer, again. ANF

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 19:28 | 1885084 Manny
Manny's picture

This is what happens when the insider information stops flowing.

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 20:25 | 1885270 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

...your ratio assumes Tilson is as long NFLX as he is short GMCR, which is unreasonable.

In any case, GMCR is completely ripping as of late.

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