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How Much Further Can Financial Stocks Fall?
It seems to us that the entire global financial system continues to walk the tight-rope of public-confidence in fictional reserve banking. Where it is European (or Chinese) bank runs or mega losses at US bank non-proprietary businesses, it appears the credit market has been becoming more and more fearsome of the endgame since last Summer's US downgrade when S&P made the impossible possible. While not all of the US financials have active CDS, the dependence between stocks and credit had remained high with current CDS levels inferring a drop of over 60% in XLF as the top 30 globally most systemically important financial entities reach their March 2009 peak in riskiness once again.
US financials (XLF) vs credit (average CDS for the liquid names in the XLF index)...
and at the same time the Financial Stability Board's 30 Most Systemically important entities have seen risk soar back to the March 2009 peak levels once again...
Source: CMA and Bloomberg
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It's not the fall that kills, but rather the sudden stop.
End game commencing continuing.
I was thinking that it was just nature taking back what should have been buried five years ago.
Fins are all bust anyways.
The quantum wave functions representing market stock prices CAN tunnel past zero.
+10 for “ fictional reserve banking “- soon to be understood in the EU.
Is that Ben's helicoptor I see on the horizon?
Cue "Flight of the Valkyries."
Sorry, but I think you have "Flight of the Valkyries" confused with his more menacing trademark music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1D5Sa2Yq-2g
You cant stay drunk forever!
i tried... and failed =(
btw.. what shenanigans is moving 10Y up? 1.51 atm... the bernanke is buying?
If he's buying the yield would move down.
More likely is some plain old profit taking selling.
Four years and counting...
Fractal implosion FTW.
Strange how the developers building the HFT/Algo infrastructures failed to point it out to their investors.
Deviations of infinity are not limited by 0 in the slightest and can live happily on both sides of the variable of 0 as long as the math is allowed to entertain the true reason of fractal mathematics.
Complete and total chaos. Order maybe brought FROM chaos, it is never order TO chaos. As owners of the equipment in question running the markets should understand that slight difference. Eventually it'll run wild without their input because that's what it is built to do.
Go FAZ! It's up 21% since I bought it a couple weeks ago.
Keep your stop loss in place to save your ass in a pinch. x3 ETF's go up like rockets, they also fall like them as well. If you are up 21%, "give" yourself a 10% raise and put your SL over 10% at your buy price.
Cannot stress that enough.
When it falls like a rock, stops you out, you've made x3 than an interest baring account and 1000000% than a Facebook investor.
Until your stops are ignored.
The rules are the rules ubtil TPTB decide that the current rules don't benefit them. Then you stop losses will simply be ignored to "protect an orderly market" or some other contrived BS.
It's a dangerous game where the rules can be changed at any time thus guarnteeing that those who want to win will win and that everyone else will lose.
Yup, it can happen during PM or AH without hesistation and some crappy retail account.
I just understood he's been holding it over nights and weekends the whole time. Thought FAZ jumped 20% in the morning (which it's done often during 2008 and 2009)
DO NOT HOLD OVERNIGHT EVER.
DO NOT HOLD OVER WEEKENDS EVER.
Play only the day!!!! Only for the day!! Ever!
These are NOT investment vechiles! If you've made 21%, cash out, laugh heartily and wait until Tuesday for your next play.
Load up with more. She is a sure thing!!!
Fictional Reserve.... I like it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVFJd94XRck
my impression of our leadership
www.weebls-stuff.com/toons/aaaaaaaaaaaaahaha/
Falling is a lot like flying.
( insert TV comercials pig " weee, weeeee sounds here. )
That splat moment!
Is this a trick question?
Whats the question? I forgot.
At bat - negative interest rates
On deck - negative stock market.
no
it is about the tightrope, and the fall
Tight RopeLeon Russell
leon, a star in his own right, was involved in eveything in the 60's and 70's; anybody showed up from anywhere, leon ended up as a sideman for the show; those of us who know what he did in the music scene {including launching his own asylum label so people could escape being sucked up by warnerBros which was buying up every small and indy producer on the globe} yeah, he got caught up in the downside stuff, too, but he is slewie's most fabulous roadDog in the history of R&R; he actually ran circles around dylan, imo, altho dylan had gone to a complete musical circus and had a bit different logistics to tackle, especially when he and ginZ0 were doing the celluloid, but at least they got it in the fucking can, didn't they?
yesterday, i put up this link to the 72 concert4bangladesh While my guitar gently weeps - George Harrison - The Concert For Bangladesh
if you look past the om embroidered on george's jacket and just under where the neck of his white strat meets the body... there's leon, right in the middle of the whole show, as usual, whompin that leslie sound around...
there are no elected leaders here, no banksters, no talking heads: just the people and the ideas which were being persecuted, then
as now, the tightrope is a symbol of theWay, as our guitars weep eternally for the downtrodden, the oppressed, and the victims who support our strange sound; and the high-wire, itself, gently weeps like new ernieBallSuperSlinkies on a beautiful F-hole axe
I think American financial stocks are so exceptional they can actually pierce the $0.00 hard deck with ease.
$0.00 is merely a technical support, and we know how much technicals matter in this market...
The most important issue in the markets is confidence, and that can fall a lot
farther from where it is, and the markets will follow it.
Whoop! Let's get on with it.
The gap on the first chart between XLF and its credit has been there for over a year...
What is, into the money
They will continue to fall until maximum downward velocity is reached and either: a)the rope becomes taunt and a loud 'crack' sound is heard, or b) concrete is met with a 'splat' (preferably with multiple scenarios being played out). Either way, loud cheering and laughter will be heard around the world.
Oh, we were talking about stocks, I thought we were discussing 'How should the Bankers fall?'
My Bad... Carry On!
They could fall "into their own footprint at freefall speed". That way there would not need to be an investigation.
I like that idea.
Best part with your scenario is that all the toxic waste ends when they do, not after the fall.
Then we just band together as a country and rebuild. You know, like last time.
Oh, and no Patriot Act will be needed for this rebuilding, just the Patriots.
Will people also be waved back from the scene of the totally unexpected freefall after a countdown is overheard?
It would be nice if they collapsed before my next mortgage payment is due.
So much for Soros selling tech to buy banking stocks. Nobody's perfect I guess...
Maybe Soros knows something we don't.
As I keep saying, if the Euro dies and takes a number of EU banks with it and the dollar survives, the USD will be the sole global reserve currency and US/UK banks will feast on the European wreckage. Once the market collapses after the Euro implosion, buy into US banks that are part of the Fed.
But if the Euro implodes the US banks are caput too.
The dollar may be the only fiat left standing but there will be billions of quadrillions of them floating all over the globe. Who the hell would take them?
How Much Further Can Financial Stocks Fall?answer: ALL THE WAY (buy FAZ)
Big 5 Financials Vs. The Silver Price: A New Market Paradigm Amid Collapsing Markets as Silver is Poised to Takeout Big 5
http://silvervigilante.com/big-5-financials-vs-silver-price-a-new-market...
Short FAS
I'd short the hell out of these bloated pigs if they weren't on Sack's "stocks deemed too important to drop" list. too risky for me. ever wonder why BAC bounces off of $5/share like a rocket? it ain't a coincidence.
But DB and DIBA are up today.
And COF and AXP
(and FAZ...)
How low can you go?
Market Limbo!
In the next 2 years, XLF is going to have a 6 handle again. Book it.
I have my stop loss set at $0 per share. If it drops lower than that, then I think my math degree was a waste.
[stereotypical, widely-used audio sample from any movie where someone is falling off of a cliff]
SCRRRRRRRRRAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
I was thinking more Wile E. Coyote...
Well, New Orleans is below sea level.
Yeah but didn't they just get a Bailout a couple years ago?
What's with the rhetorical questions?
Have you never heard of inciting people to think for themselves?
I see what you did there. Nice.
At what point is everyone going to jump on TBT? I wanted to buy at $30 but didn't, then I wanted to buy at $25 but didn't, then $20 now below $15 and I'm just wondering when the bottom will come and if anyone else is watching it with me.
The real question is what is the FED gonna pull. Deflation is unacceptable, as are extended losses in the market. So they need to get money in there some how. MBS is doubtful, contrary to what Gross thinks. The focus is on the banks. Borrowing costs are rock bottom, but I'm sure they have a new trick on the way, and I want in on the juice. Any ideas?
Ha ha! You make an assumption similar to the one that man causes climate change. A "correlated" flea fart in a monsoon.
Vague, but possibly constructive. Man does have a small but present effect on climate change, and the fed will print. You assume fleas fart, but is that useful in anyway?
A couple of astrological events (for those who prefer this science over "other" sciences when it comes to forecasting the future) one today and one tomorrow, may shed some light on our present financial situation.
Heads Up for the Lunar Eclipse
June 4, 2012
4:11 am PDT
20 degrees 11 minutes Scorpio
Jyeshta Nakshatra
This eclipse takes place in Scorpio in Jyestha Nakshatra. Jyestha’s deity is Indra, the king of the gods, so it is related to executive tendencies. Its symbol is a protective talisman, so it is also connected to shamanistic activities.
This eclipse may disturb or interrupt activities related to business, management, or seniority. On a global level it could create problems for military commanders or political leaders.
In general it is recommended to not begin new projects or endeavors related to business or leadership for a period of 6 days on either side of the eclipse. Shamanistic activities and activities related to spiritual healing, on the other hand, may be enhanced by this eclipse, so it is a good time for delving deeply into the spiritual realm.
The Mantra for this eclipse is Om Hreem Jyeshta Nakshatra Devataye Namah.
Venus Passes Across the Face of the Sun
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Venus has been retrograde recently (May 16th to June 26th.) Retrograde means that it appears to go backwards. Retrograde causes a planet’s energy to overflow.
During this retrograde phase, however, a very rare event will take place. Venus will pass across the face of the sun and will appear as a dark orb for about six hours. It begins to cross the sun at 3:09 PDT on Tuesday, June 5th. This event only happens twice every 120 years. The last time it occurred was Jun 8, 2004. Previous to that, it took place in December of 1874 and December of 1882.
Astrologically, this event is very similar to an eclipse and is sometimes even called an eclipse of Venus. Symbolically it tends to negate the energy of Venus as well. Occurring in the sign of Taurus (money and material comfort) this event may well be related to the recent downturn in the stock market as well as the longer term negative trends in the economy. It may also portend further difficulties for the global economy in the next couple of years.
In this respect this Venus/Sun conjunction is very similar to the same event in 1761 which took place in Taurus and in Rohini. Shortly after that conjunction there was a severe drought in Bengal in India. Rohini is associated with farming and food in general. This drought gave rise to a great famine that started in 1770 and lasted until 1773 in which over 10 million people died. It is interesting to note that about Venus’ transit in Rohini, Varahamihira, the author of the Brihat Jataka says, “If Venus cuts the wane (middle) of Rohini, the earth will be strewn with the hair and pieces of bones of the dead, and will appear as if she were performing Kapala (a vow of penance for expiating the karma due to the murder of a Brahmin in which the person takes a vow of celibacy and then covers himself in garlands of skulls and bones).
On the individual level, this is a great time to be conservative with expenditure and moderate in diet. A little internal reflection and work on your attachment to food, money and possessions will go a long way to mitigate any individual effects. This is also a great time to make donations to people who are suffering from hunger and poverty.
I'm gonna call bullshit on this one.
At least as good as Cramer, and possibly better.
If you trade on fundamentals, they are all worth 0$ since most are designed to just skim money.
If you trade on reality, because of their license to steal that seems to be protected by the government, they seem pretty strong, because like a cat, they always end up on their feet.
My price target for the XBD Broken Dealer Index = negative 100:
http://chart.ly/2flk6wp
At least three articles slamming gold in a casual glance at Yahoo! Finance news right now. Marketwatch, WSJ, US News and World Report.
Hmm, could it be because gold has responded so well to this nearly unprecedented ramp in the DXY and isn't going down like the other commodities? Coiled spring in the event of a DXY reversal...
Not to mention negative paper interest rates.
Wouldn't want the average Joe figuring out how to not lose capital. Sheesh.
Coiled spring is right. You want to be ready to buy oil hand over fist. The decline - like that in US bond yields - is unsustainable.
ZERO
I believe the market will be left to fall through Wednesday in preparations for FED comments. Then shit in your shorts if you still have them.
What do you expect they'll say, the standard "we are watching the situation closely and are prepared to respond with all the multitude of omnipotent tools (read jawboning and infinite notional credit, we can't lower interest rates below zero can we please?) we still have available"?
The Fed can save itself or save the banks. It is unlikely they will be able to do both.
big head and shoulders on /es. pointing to 1240 if she breaks correctly. caution to traders, this isn't as good an indicator as it was back pre-march 2009. but it is still there.
Want the bejesus scared out of you? Check out the huge H&S on emerging market index (monthly and weekly) suggesting an additional 50% haircut from these levels.
FAZZZZZZZZZZZZ!
From Reuters: 'The European Commission has been considering the possibility of direct bank recapitalization by the euro zone's ESM bailout fund'
This is a plan whereby they attach you and your children's futures directly to the bankster's pockets. There are no entities powerful enough to stop them--except themselves (which will stop them because it won't work.)
Our children can simply refuse to pay for our stupidity. It would really be that easy. The value of interconvertible money is only imaginary after all.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckAwT9AkRgE
So much for euro down, gold down. Euro's up, yet paper gold is "down". Or how 'bout this one: USD down, paper gold up. Well, dollar's down, and so is paper gold! What's the f*ckwit muppet chorus gonna be for today's pm price management? Who knows, but you can be sure they'll make something up. And it will be parroted mindlessly and unquestioningly.
Ya think gold gives a rats ass? Gold just sits back and laughs. See, gold and silver have all the time in the world.
On the other hand.... how's that fiat money and its "banks" workin'?
" A tempest in a teapot"
typical, goes up on non-existant volume. but look at the volume on the sell side. wow
The Jun 12 puts are 0.27
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