Huge Miss In Initial Claims Follows Last Week's Seasonally-Driven Beat
So much for last week's shocking beat in Initial Claims, which as a reminder printed at 350K on expectations of 372K, driven by the July 4 holiday and, what we described were "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline." This week the initial claims soared right back to 386K on expectations of a 365K print: so last week's 22K beat was promptly reversed following this week's number- a miss 21K above expectations. And of course, last week's 350K was upward revised to352K. Of note is what we said last week: "the Not Seasonally Adjusted claims number rising by 70K is very much irrelevant." Sure enough, this week the unadjusted number rose even more, by 10.8K to 453K, just 13K below last year's number of 470K. This compares to the 32K difference from a year ago for the seasonally adjusted numbers. That this stinks to high seasonally adjusted heaven needs no observation. Finally, people for whom extended claims expired soared by 84K in one week, as those on EUC 2008 benefit is imploding with each week. Overall, a very ugly number, but not horrible enough yet to send the S&P up 100 on imminent NEW QE.