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Hugh Hendry On Europe "You Can't Make Up How Bad It Is"
At The Milken Institute conference yesterday, Hugh Hendry delivered his usual eloquent and critical insights on the state of Europe. Beginning with the statement that "All of Europe has defaulted", the canny-wee-fella (translation: shrewd and cautious young chap) explained that "The political economy in Europe is such that the politicians chose to default on their spending obligations to their citizens in order to honor the pact with their financial creditors and so as time goes on, the politicians are being rejected." Between France's election of Mr. Hollande and Luxembourg's 'when times get tough you have to lie' Juncker, Hendry says the only inspiration for Europe is fiction as "you just can't make up how bad it is" as he goes on to discuss the precedent for a way forward, the grotesque distortions of fixed exchange rate regimes, why Weimar happened, why the transfer union will never happen, Ayn Rand's reality, and fear politicians are feeling.
The entire discussion is well worth watching for a sense of the underlying reality in Europe.
The underlying reality that what the European monetary union is about is not about preventing a third so-called European civil war, it is essentially about making someone (France, Germany or both) a Great Power, a European Hegemon, and a global player.
Starting at around 12:00, Hugh begins his must-watch discussion...
And begins again at around 30:00, Hendry discusses the British perspective on the impeccable logic of the German mind and why the transfer union will never happen in Europe...and why Wiemar happened...
At around 46:00, Hendry addresses Germany's emerging housing bubble (and why it won't occur) and the two forms of leverage in the world.
From 52:40, Hendry takes on the view of (disagreeing with) a weak USD and the US being supplanted as a global leader
Hendry confesses to not being able to finish reading Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged at around 1:02:00 and explains why (apart from its length and lack of pictures)...noting that is too depressingly real in its description of the world we live in today...
We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class - and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond - and it terrifies them.
Concluding at 1:10:10 - "we are single-digit years away from the most profound market clearing moment"
(h/t Stock Bitch)
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maybe he's not being completely honest for a reason.
Exactly. there's the very real possibillity one part of the country will seize power. Those hollowpoints aren't for shooting turkeys. It seems, just like politicians have a blind spot for finances, and measure by vote, hedgefundmanagers have blind spots as far as politics (corporatism) goes. Or perhaps Hendry knows very well, and is just building a bridge, as he put it, he's there for his clients, first and foremost.
With the politicians in some countries oblivious to the fact of those trillions in liabillities, or "on the take" it's at quite a distance to souverign states with accountabillity towards their constituents, but despite that, the transformation towards a corporate state isn't nearly as complete as it seems to be in the US of A. One could say the US of A have a head start. the repression of the first of may protest marches seems coördinated throughout the west though. Can't have socialism as an alternative. (That's just an observation of course, not a pledge to one particular ideology. ;-))
i actually think the coming financial deleveraging is going to be used to push (unpopular) events, like transfer of (souverign) power. Just as in 2001-2003 and 2008 when most changes in power structures were implemented in the USA. It will be increasingly difficult though, since the incentive of being part of a successful economic structure will evaporate, more and more, as this progresses.
fuck this pompous douchebag who pontificates on the problems of the rest of the world while ignoring that they are in large part rooted in the grotesque distortions (and extortions) wrought by anglosaxon finance and the likes of people like him
this is coming to New York and London sooner or later, and they sure as hell deserve it
Right. He's there to make money for his clients. That's the bottom line.
You guys are really intelligent.
Who the fuck is NOT working in order to make money from his clients? Mother Theresa?
JFC...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJNiMFFRu0g
<--- has a big man crush on this dude
Boulder Colorado..a liberal leftist Communist headquarters...thought they were going to have a 4.1% increase in sales taxes this year....spent accordingly of course...well its coming in flat..0%.....so the mayor says "they can´t turn on the spigots yet"...spigots of other peoples money to do the socialists work...they have no concept of cutting exenses....or shutting a program down..no concept
Would it be too much to wear a proper neck tie? Hugh looks like he just rolled out of bed after a hard night.. which maybe he did.
he's 6 feet tall & farts lightning bolts out of his arse!
Here is a youtube video with Hugh talking about this. It is 1 minute 7 seconds. Really funny. He has to meet with a billionaire family of investors for a review. Their advisor suggests that Hugh invest in a suit because he looks like a tramp. Hilarious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwA79kALFnw
I have a question. Don't operating leverage and financial leverage usually go hand in hand too? Usually corporates with hard assets such as machines (which tend to result in operating leverage) etc are the ones who can borrow more because they can securitize those assets. Just like all the ship builders, property developers, automakers? On the other hand of the spectrum, you have tech companies with negative financial leverage with little operating assets.
Hugh is right about alot of things. Champagne socialists created the problem; but champagne fascists (US private sector) aren't the ones that are going to solve it.
This thing needs to burn before we rebuild it. Just a fact of life.
This whole problem of debt grown out of proportion is NOT because of socialism.
That issue of "socialist nanny state" was a discussion in the eightties, and "solved" by giving corporations more freedom.
How rich that a chinese politburo guy, who pretends towards his people to be "communist" tells europe "they've got a problem with worker ethics and socialist rewards".
No matter how "diplomatic" he was supposed to be, when he said that, I'd leave diplomatics aside and say "Take those chopsticks and insert them, sideways." :-|
And that's not a racist remark, I'm eating right now, using (a different set of) chopsticks.
He's totally right. I get all my reading and knowledge from Spiderman comics
"Mercantalism and money printing...you get a second chance...a third chance...this is like 1982..."
Hugh might be smoking some hopium there; not sure he sees the encroaching welfare society hand-in-hand with crony capitalism, which could very well crush small and entrepreneurial ventures in favor of the largesse of giant corporations and government; making energy more and more expensive, and income lower and lower.
Haven't seen any refugees coming from Western Europe lately.
+ 1
But, I have (S FL). LOTS from France, Germany and Italy around here. LOTS from S. America too. I would *guess* that many are in NYC as well.
Point taken though. The ones I see are WEALTHY refugees....
It's like the situation between the UK and French expat movement. Net/net there is no movement. But under the numbers, the UK retirees are moving to France, while the young French university grads have been flocking to the city in droves over the last couple of decades. I know which side of the English Channel I want to be on.
Gamblers don't play the game to win but to lose. They just don't know it untill they lost it all.
+ 1, wish I could + you 50.
That's why I don't gamble (ex. for trivial stakes) or trade. I would rather have the safety in investments and divsersification, especially into gold.
Speaking of compulsive gambling, this is an excellent film based upon a true story on that subject:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0285861/
Gambling is a tax for people bad at math!
The average time for lottery winners to go broke is 2 years ! Only savy, experienced market players know how to lose it quicker ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Doomsday Calendar
implying tom hanks will actually be a captain in the military?
What backs the US dollar?
The US military. Don't forget that.
Hendry's story about the Royal Navy was a good illustration of what fiat currency really means, and where the buck stops, so to speak.
And what backs up the US militairy? The US citizens. You can have as much drones as you want, but if there's no cannonfodder, those contractors will have to do the dirty work themselves.
And they hate that.
Enter.... nuclear powerplants. Screw with the petrodollar, expect Stuxnet (or something more crude, like Fukushima). "Accidents happen".
Japan as major player, gone.
It's all connected. Not just logically, it's actually the same people in control of both.
Hendry is worried about confiscation..yet, he loves the U.S. dollar, and the robustness of the U.S. to fix its structural problems??
They don't confiscate your purchasing power/savings in the U.S. with the trillions they are printing and the ZIRP?
Simply a Grass is greener thing?
Or, must be a real horror-show over there if he loves the U.S. and its currency.
So, if it boils down to being a race to the glue factory, the play for that is to bet against Europe banks, (maybe puts on the DB), not long US or USD.
(hey, ZHers, if you love this guy who loves the US$, and you love gold, how does that square?)
nothing/no one's perfect. and nothing is going to keep me from stacking. except hyperinflation.
"...We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class - and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond - and it terrifies them...."
Primary wave 3 down for all you elliott wavers:
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/djia/weekly/
You can get notified by email when this chart updates. http://bullandbearmash.com/members/signup/
HH is in love with the sound of his own voice & unbelievably precious - this alone makes me doubt his analysis. He looks like a guy catching sight of his reflection & falling in love all over again.
The main tenet of his $ bull argument seems to be cheap US produced shale oil/gas etc - given that shale oil-gas is cheap, what does he think that would do to OECD/ gas producer prices in a market situation? Correct - they would have to lower their gas/oil prices to comptete. Why does he think that cheap shale oil/gas won't be bid up by China/India etc - will it be sold exclusively to Amercian enterprise at subsidised prices?
None of what he says on this makes sense to me.
You just explained why it makes sense without realizing it. If Oil becomes expensive, NG is the substitute, and US is the Saudia Arabia of NG. Other countries that want to buy our NG will have to buy dollars to purchase it with, bidding up the dollar.
I do not agree with that this thesis will materialize, but it would support HH's theory.
HH's follow-up point that the global cost of energy is one reason you can't just get out your Birinyi ruler and conclude that China's economy will be #1 in X-yrs.
As for the thought that HH is talking his book on energy, I've wondered if the recent panic drops on TOT, CHK, and companies affected by nationalization of reserves have had an orchestrated element. It's difficult to know with worldwide oil demand in a funk and threatening to get funkier with impending recessions.
Buying energy on dips is like buying gold on dips, but the oft-repeated point about utility is moot.
Correct. He's clearly sucking up to someone, his corporation made some plans that require that.
I liked him better when he was genuinely angry.
The Creature from Jekyll Island says it all and we are fast approaching Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged senario. I am off to Galt's glutch which happens to be in Chiangmai Thailand so call us when you all have seen some sense.
Is anyone else not able to log onto chat?
Hugh said Europe sucks!
I did - when?
Not you - Hugh!
Not me - me?
No - "not me - H-u-g-h!"
Go it! So who's Hugh?
No - Who's on first.
I dunno - Hugh?
I'm standing here with you - how can I be on first?
But I dont see Hugh standing next to you?
....
Peak Hendry. Sunshine State? Hugh, you're in L.A... California. Ayn Rand too true?
Total wave he's becoming.
Government "spending obligations to their citizens" -- this mindset is the problem.
The government has no duty to spend other people's money nor do its citizens have any claim or entitlement receive other people's money.
True but they *are* entitled to the benefits of their own taxes that they have paid. If you pay money in, you expect something back, and that is a reasonable expectation.
Most pay very little but expect much in return compared to what they paid in. No one is entitled to any government spending. Relatively few have paid in more than me, but let's just cut taxes and spending and call it even. The reality is there will be no / little return on what we paid in -- folks need to get over the idea the government has any funds to "pay them back" (fyi - they are $16 trillion in debt). It is / was a ponzi -- people need to accept that loss and move on. But we don't need to continue the ponzi -- stop the government spending now.
True, but the problem is that many didn't pay very little in relation to what the government owes them and they rightfully expect the state to do their part. Or else, of course.
That is why HH says now the problem is bigger than the government fucks can handle. Or how do you "stop" if you're a European employee 1 or 3 years away from retirement and most of your mandatory pension savings are in the common public pension fund (that's basically underfunded by at least 50%)?
They still can try to inflate their way out of trouble.
Is he talking down or up something, like 1000 other guys before him? Another day, another Yank with so surefire "predictions" about euro...
The buffoon is in love with his sophisticated anecdotes and quotes from sixteenfortyhogwash.
But when it comes to real world predictions, he was wrong a couple of times, for example forecasting deflation in 2009, or bearish calls on China (wrong for what? Two years now?). He was right more often than wrong, though, but don't make him the patron saint of financial forecasting.
Short the Euro, no matter how 'crowded the trade', seems to be a no-brainer.
Like long gold : No matter how crowded that trade may become, it still will be the right one.
At these critical macro turns contrarianism doesn't work (see, for instance, those holding confederate currency before the South surrendered, because everyone else was dumping theirs).
+100
really like that sentence about critical macro turns.
The Milken Institute...same as the Madoff institute.
The States as well as EU countries are starting to revolt against the US FED. That's what happens. Politicians bribe maintenance is headed up.
US/NATO empire is shrinking. Costs are rising. Politicians are abandoning the NWO and the NWO attempt at taking over the world is seen as a very bad thing by billions of people.
We are winning. Rothschildes, and Bushs (-1) People (+1)
One thing the video reveals is that it is best not to sit next to Hugh Hendry during panel discussions. I wonder if he has a drinking problem.
He makes the whole video worth watching.
They didn't mention the squid nor fraud and its impact.
They seemed to think the US is the place to invest in. Hugh said the US addressed all of its problems. He even asked for someone to adopt him. He might try a shower and ask again. I think he is still here in Santa Monica today.
Actually ZH has posted so many videos the last two days I haven't gotten anything done.
Is it me or all the other panelists seem to hate Hugh Hendry?? He seems like a good guy... But his whole ``the dollar is only going higher``.... LOL! And he's a fan of Japan! LOL Japan and the US are going down...
And Wolfgang is a goddamn EU shill...
Like most ignorant commenters here: WRONG. He is incredibly long CDS on Japanese companies. He's 'bullish Japan' because he thinks the inflationary end game is near.
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Banks/Weimar_Hyperinflation.html
My friend actually mentioned this to me a couple weeks ago and I started looking it up today. Interesting.
Hugh mentions the ban on short sale being bad. A short sale of somthing that you first borrowed is good but short sale of something you never borrowed is BAD.
Great entertainment Hugh, but long the USD ? WTF !
People who laugh at his long USD call really should re-read all the articles on this site that explain the colleteral crisis in Europe and Asia.
Wnen your trade moves 2% , take profit or loss!
Total utter market chaos is about to be unleashed.
Going to be historic.
BIG TIME ' 666" massive selling! I just took all my 20- 12 gains and sacrificed them! I'm pissed off but smart!
The melt down is happening.
Either the market is still caught long (doubt that) or HFTs are scavenging the tops and buying dips (likely + funds premature ejaculation on QE3). Either way, volumes are sucked into nothing + EZ political chaos begging to hit. This is going blow. Seen short positions piling up on index shorts, big figures too.
The Fed QE3 only when oil drops under 100 and index clear a large % negative. Yeah it's going to be a big sell off...
Yen, you followng India/INR etc. Amazed this has some what flown under the radar. But one of the BRICS is about to completely implode, that being India.
Re: India sinking
INR - increasingly helpless in the face of a large trade deficit and outflows of foreign equity and bond capital. Credit Agricole.
End of the world sh*t happening baby...
do i have time to buy 100 moar oz. of Ag tomorrow?
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for the Euro drops to Zero.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for all fiat currencies drops to Zero.
I've always felt the problems were so big TPTB were crapping their pants. But mehinks their greatest worry is how they'll come out on top on the other side.
Bankers are controlling and manipulating all markets, looting, and QE-X is just a one-way trip for the USD WRC. I'm sure they are saying behind closed doors they have no choice. They will say it's all being done as matter of national security which will require the full cooperation of the NSA, CIA, and FBI.
The government is out of the economic policy loop, except to ignore the fraud and pass draconian laws to prepare for martial law and TEOTWAWKI.
Trends are peaking. Get square, and live to fight another day! Trade upward spikes/ short!
From what I hear! { GREY matter} is in Vogue!
Is not Japan a preview of all these issues?
Slumping stock market, endless economic quagmire, despite super loose fiscal and monetary policies and massive debt burdens.
So why are they still standing, over 20 years after their bubble popped?
Japan is desperate , and full of tech skills! I'm pretty sure "South Korea", knows about that! My head is resting over " Japans Shoulder".
Wake Up!
I marvel at Hugh Hendry's meticulously consistent unkempt appearance....except for the lack of scotch tape holding his glasses together ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Cut Off Blue Jeans And Box Cutter Opened Loafers Improvised Sandals Chic Beach Hoarder With Zippered Guayabera And "No Problem" Black Baseball Cap
You also can't make up how good political minions and sheople are at ignoring how bad it is.
Tyler? LOok & Listen!?
Probably already posted, but since we are talking alot about Hugh appearance
sarc: Zerohedge comment section reports: Paul Krugman Shaves off his iConic beard as pictured in this article. .... Roubini: Iran is the greatest looming threat CNN-Money
EDIT: The ontopic part from this clip is "The Euro and the EU will survive because eventually people will realize this is the longest period with out war on the continent" From the Roubini article: "Roubini: Europe needs a 'bazooka'" and snarc: some brown people to point it at.
5 Stars for Hendry
Sell the Tops when SWAPS come in!
Why worry?
We know anyone or anything on this planet has a timeline.
We know it is finite, just where in the line it stops is the only thing we don't know and too many are going crazy because of it. :)
Hugh looks like he's just back from a week long Vegas vacation. Is that why he's so optimistic on the US?
Might want to wipe that lipstick off and come down off your coke high before you say something you may regret there Hugh.
I'm a casual investor, so, before ZH, did not know who HH was. He certainly grows on you. "...most profound market clearing moment." I'm thinking Dresden.
Why waste my time with you?
I can only hope self-fulfilling prophecy brings us some interesting events for 12/21/2012.
I think we're all collectively longing for an end to this bullshit.
We're all "...polishing the brass on the titanic."
I think it's about time we "...let the chips fall where they may."
Germany always has been a "export powerhouse". I can't confirm the statement that this hadn't been like this at the timepoint of turn of millenium. Also at this timepoint (as in the 90th) "world export champion" was a quite familar dictum occasionally used in the German medias and comparing the export ratio into the Eurozone it was almost the same like today if not higher (with one significant change: Wages and pensions were also remarkable higher).
Warning sign for Germany was Holland's goverment collapsing a week or so back.
A significant Euro-zone slowdown with oil inflation is a recipe for complete turmoil.
But UK/Scotland will try and fly under the radar. GBP bid, Gilts bid and the dear old Scots trading with the rich Northern Europeans (Norway and Sweden) Rest of Europe is and will be a total write-off.
Don't worry, America's payback is coming once Asia's inflation wave hits US shores. Just in time for Obama's election.
Milken Institute? INSTITUTE? Well, I guess that's one way for convicted felons to find work in this era of internet background checks.
As for debates, I think it would be good for Hugh Hendry to sit down at a debate with Max Kaiser, Alex Jones, and...? Because I am not seeing great things for the USA with, what, 6 million dollars of new debt per second, productivity up because people are making the same as 20 years ago, real estate prices back to trend line but property taxes up 100 percent.
I think Hugh is going a little to esoteric on the USA. But I will agree the dollar should do well short term while everyone is paying attention to Euro, then Japan, then China.
I've gotta feeling HH has something in his back pocket...
Some One Tell that wish/wash Sean Lee that pumps his book @ Forex Live to " Get a Life"
I donated to the foundation in Sydney Sean!
Very interesting. The intellectual "divide" between Hugh and Bernard and the two other muppets is staggering. I know which two I would want managing my money. Oh, and the eye candy is what it is.
Then there is Australia...my goodness their ASX200 is 'alive' with HFT bots. Almost comical to watch.
Liquidation trade t-minus and counting. Gonna be eye bleeding.
US Daily: 2012 US April Payroll Preview: Sluggish
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4078-1-1.html
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
Did anyone catch the bit where the eye candy chick, when asked about her portfolio said that only 14% of it was in Europe, and that included the UK part of the investment. After a short discussion about whether the UK is a part of Europe, the moderator didn't follow-up by asking her to breakdown how that 14% was allocated. When it came to explaining why the figure was so small, all she wanted to say was that there were issues in Europe that resulted in low allocations. Priceless stuff.
PS I thought Bernard Conolly was just as good if not better than Hugh. Hugh might get the headlines, but Bernard has his economics down.
PPS The German from Austria, WTF. Need to get the cliche police on his ass. :)
PPPS The Apollo guy was a total waiste of space.
I kinda like the contrary idea of being bullish on the dollar. You have such an overwhelmingly large crowd of people who think the current trend for dollar debasement will just continue endlessly....I can't help but think that we'll have some major 'fuck you' rally that lasts for a couple of years and which completely rips the eyeballs out of the vast majority of market participants.
Dollar/Sterling back down to Reagan levels (parity)...dollar/euro back to 80 cents from 1.30.....dollar/Yen back up to 175-185.....
seriously...what would be the greatest fuck you trade you can think of....a stock market sell-off? A collapse of the bond market, with 10yr notes back to 5%? I think a huge number of people are positioned for that, or at least have contemplated the possibility & probability of that happening....but a major mega eyeball gouging dollar rally? Remember, the market always loves to go to the point at which it completely annihilates the most people.
Agreed. But is market sentiment US Dollar negative?
Northrop CEO welcomes FAA regulation of unmanned aircraft
Happy green-shoots day Citizens, your Dystopian non-future has been served! My favourite part of the following is:
Did ya get that bitches? ... i.e. these drones had/have no identified civilian role -- NO IDENTIFIED REQUIREMENT (well, actually, they have identified a requirement, but they aren't going to tell the civil tax-payer population that it's required to, 'put them down', so to speak).
But they simply MUST have them ... for the sake of the children!
So they are gonna, like, ... wing it ... to see what they come up with.
i.e. just fuck around with them until they can find some lame excuse for their permanent and routine deployment above USSA taxpayer's heads, 24-7. You never know, the peace-prize-in-chief may need the 'command' capability to exercise his divine rite to murder citizen taxpayers, at any moment.
Remember that "Global Strike" paradigm and architecture they keep mumbling about?
--
--
As we know, universities are filled with uppity 'intellectuals' that you should keep and eye one, which Soviet-Jewish era Communist revolutionaries ruthlessly exterminated, for these commie-Jews knew that 'intellectuals' were capable of drawing 'counter-revolutionary' forces around them. So they gave them the "extreme pre-judice" schtick, and killed every last one of them. However, now the same Jew-clan has thoroughly infiltrated the USSA, and can press a button that'll make these nasty intellectual rabbles just "go away". No more tedious paper work, no more rounding them up at 3AM to haul them off in trucks and slice their throats open before dawn. Now you just turn them into rapidly bio-degradable pink-slime on the spot.
That's a Win-Win situation!
In other welcome news, for the Involuntary 'Patriots' of Amerika Incorporated ;
--
--
And just so you know exactly what that wee bomblet is, boys and girls;
--
--
Don't blink, this is the part in the movie where Tyler spiced in a huge cock ... every one pretends they didn't see it ... but they did.
Safe and secure now bitches!
But just think of them as roving traffic-observation camera's, that can kill you, or maybe just give you some second-degree burns with it's high intensity laser-target-designator, dwelling upon you for a second or two. You know ... 'non-lethal' force ... just something to put you off your game for a bit.
What's the bet that within five years they'll be putting genuine 'tactical' energy-level lasers on these UAVs, i.e. something that can burn through a car roof in 25 milliseconds at ten miles oblique look-down.
Yeah, they already have them ... but you won't find that out ... until you do.
Rise of the machines = Risen
Looking at the resilience of the eur/usd pair I am wondering if this has to do with asset sales by european banks and repatriation. I am looking at the slide on approx. 0:38:44 of the video. The stark difference between the size of assets held by banks between USA and Europe stats out. 50T!
Based on the slide, lets say, approx 10T is explained by the larger capital market and Securitization Markets in the US and approx 5T by the larger corporate lending by banks in Europe. That still leaves 35T. This is still a sizable amount considering that the total net worth of US households is 58T as per the Flow of Funds report. I will continue to dig this a bit more to research the root of this difference. In the meantime, any thoughts suggestions are much appreciated.
Both Hendry and Kyle Bass are confident of the US Dollar holding its value relative to other currencies in the short term. All my paper cash is also currently in USD and CHF (more USD than CHF by a ratio of 2:1). Ratio of gold to paper cash is around 1.6:1 currently.
Im only hanging on to Dollars for a market panic of some kind a la Lehman. It may not happen but I think the risk of something happening has increased exponentially. You have the following possibilities: (1) a blow up in Europe (too many possibilities here to discuss); (2) a blow up in Japan; (3) a blow up in China; (4) currency crisis in India; (5) a massive housing crisis in the UK; and (7) property bubbles in Canada and Australia. I cannot imagine a time when there was so much in so many places that could turn into landmines.
On that basis, holding on to some USD in the short term makes sense. The US default will overshadow them all and we will wake up to a different world a day later. But that will happen AFTER the events listed above. Hang on to your PMs. You'll need them.