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Hugh Hendry: When I Speak On TV It Gives The Impression That I Am Full Of Myself

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There are various reasons why not only we at Zero Hedge are big fans of Hugh Hendry. One of them of course is his uncanny ability to not only tell the truth, but to bash his competitors faces into it (as Joseph Stiglitz so vividly recalls), even if it means running squarely against the consensus. The other reason are self-aware statements such as this one via the FT today: "What I found was that when I speak in person, and especially when it’s television and timing is so acute, it gives the impression that I am cavalier and, if you will, full of myself,” says Mr Hendry, speaking by phone from his office in Bayswater, central London." Hendry was obviously discussing his self-imposed media blackout which unlike other prominent financiers is not being used for book sales promotion purposes but appears quite genuine. It also means he won't get to collect $200/appearance fees as a guest contributor on CNBC but we digress. "The danger when people look at that from a distance is that they try to align that with the guy that they’ve just given $50m or $75m to and it’s not the same person." iI is sad that none of the other talking muppet heads and "daily pundits" who appear on financial comedy TV to merely blow smoke up assorted holes and talk their books, don't share Hendry's revelations a little more often.

Still, what Hendry says and thinks influences many. So here is where he stands right now courtesy of the FT:

What does Mr Hendry believe?

 

At the Milken Institute conference in May, he told the audience that France was just a year away from nationalising its banks and that politicians had still not faced up to the scale of the global debt bubble that was now imploding.

 

“We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class – and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond – and it terrifies them.”

 

Three years after Mr Hendry posted videos on YouTube of his visits to Chinese ‘ghost’ towns, he remains pessimistic about the Middle Kingdom. He is shorting the equity of Chinese state-owned enterprises, balanced by a long position in a basket of Asian non-discretionary consumer stocks.

 

He is also using credit default swaps to bet against the debt of financially leveraged Japanese companies such as Toshiba, which he believes are particularly exposed to a Chinese slowdown.

 

Mr Hendry insists that his reputation as a “contrarian” investor is wrong, and that his approach is in fact to take advantage of the prevailing momentum in markets. “Our ideas are harshly disciplined by market trends. You will never see us pursue a homegrown idea when it is to the detriment of the prevailing trend.”

 

For example, he reckons US government bond yields, already at record lows, will continue to fall. And, although he professes not to be a contrarian, he is more optimistic about the US than many investors and is “long the debt-saddled west and short the vastly over-vaunted and over-owned” Bric quartet of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

 

He believes that financial markets are single-digit years away from a crash that will present investors with opportunities of a lifetime. “Bad things are going to happen and I still think the closest analogy is the 1930s.”

But nothing captures the spirit of Hendry as much as the following clip from 2010. Pure mastery.

 


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Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment veyron
veyron's picture

"he won't get to collect $200/appearance fees as a guest contributor on CNBC"

 

That's it????  You'd have to pay me $1000 just to change the channel to CNBC, let alone make a guest appearance ...

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment tsx500
tsx500's picture

i'd rather listen to Dick Clark recite Shakespeare for an hour than watch 30s of CNBC

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Hugh is the most smug person I know of, but he is our smug bastard.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

arrogance will kick him in the ass; it always does. He can bet against the establishment; but the establishment can change the game/rules, or just liebor.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Arrogance backed by Competence = ?

Calvinball is not a game I want to play, so I'm sitting on the sidelines.

Wed, 07/18/2012 - 06:49 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

this is better than "pipers pit"

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Plymster
Plymster's picture

What's more, he's foregoing $200/appearance for the sake of his investment business, which can only rake in many multiples of that.  Wierd.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Psssst.. someone just stole your rims.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Better to be full of yourself than to be full of Bernanke, Dimon, Blankfein or other such "personalities".

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

A typical city-of-london Arschgesicht. Part of the rotten system that should be hung asap

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

Would have to disagree. Hendry comes across as one of those ultra rare creatures known as an "honest banker", 2nd in rarity only to the elusive "honest politician". They do exist.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Honest?  Since when do bankers short countries and leverage market plays using CDSs?

 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

When the countries are so irresponsible as to deserve it?

Profiting from others' stupidity and willful blindness is a wonderful thing!

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

He's not a banker. He's a hedge fund manager. Which means he's never been bailed out when he gets it wrong, which is actually why you should not insult him by calling him a banker...

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Which country can you find the honest politician?

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

You just have to look hard. Dr. Paul in the U.S. and Mr. Farage in the UK come to mind easily.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

Farage is pro city and insofar part of the system. The buck of his honesty stops here.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment allocater
allocater's picture

> He is also using credit default swaps to bet

 

All you need to know.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Not only is Hendry great television, he is brutally honest - somethins sorely lacking with all the damn powers that be.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Hendry and Kyle Bass splitting a pitcher of beer and talking for a couple of hours, now that would be something worth watching.

How about a new financial show called "An Hour of Truth" sponsored by Zerohedge featuring guests like; Hendry, Bass, Schiff, Faber, Rogers, etc....  hosted by Rick Santelli?

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

Agree with all the names except Rogers. He's like a broken record with nothing new to say and from a trading point of view he is worse than useless.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

My favorite Jim Rogers advice is " buy commodities, if things get better there will be more demand and commodities will go up in price.  If things get worse, they will go up in price because Bernake will print more, it's all he knows how to do". 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment TJ00
Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Fake Jim Quinn
Fake Jim Quinn's picture

His best line: "I recommend you panic". Classic Hendry. He rules

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

E dowes lwook tewwibly constipated in this segment though.

Hew does. No fwow. ;-)

ori

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

When I talk......well....ExLax comes to mind.....

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Anne Ominous
Anne Ominous's picture

If by "full of myself" you mean "full of anger and disgust" then yes, but maybe not yet quite full enough.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment cobber
cobber's picture

the video is very humourous looking back in hindsight... how many things did they get so wrong?

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment TJ00
TJ00's picture

The funniest thing for me is that Hendry was right about the Greek haircut and yet they dismiss him because they live in a fantasy, I'd love to see Hendry go all Travis Bickle on the lot of them.

 

Travis Bickle: Listen, you fuckers, you screwheads. Here is a man who would not take it anymore. A man who stood up against the scum, the cunts, the dogs, the filth, the shit. Here is a man who stood up.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

"What I found was that when I speak in person, and especially when it’s television and timing is so acute, it gives the impression that I am cavalier and, if you will, full of myself,”

 

Yes, perhaps Mr. Hendry and Mr. Durden should try and soften their images a bit.

I'm thinking maybe a joint, video "Chairs" type segment in the morning where softer, newsy topics are volleyed back and forth in a witty and upbeat manner...

 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

...pass around some very clean MDMA, get cozy, and spin some D'n'B before digging into the charts for the day.

 

 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

Mr. Hendry ROCKS. His interviews, debates and panel discussions are the thing of YouLube legend. He always has great historical stories too.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Stiglitz is a clown. Why anybody take him seriously is beyond me. I love how the bimbo tries the straw man argument of saying "If Greece defaults hedge fund like your makes millions". What an idiot.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Milken Institute? Turning out to be great cover for staying in the game.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

You can almost hear " It's the DEBT, you stupid frigging wankers."

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Zola
Zola's picture

Are you sure people get PAID to be on CNBC tyler ??

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

If and only if they perform as requested, yes.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

If you notice, it's the same fee they pay to low-end escorts to give blowjobs in the parking lot.

So you go home from CNBC with your face on TV, your rocks off, and an empty pocket.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Anyone who appears on CNBC frequently should join the actor's union, then at least they'll get scale.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Hugh,

Please stop your media blackout.  While I agree that you tend to sound full of yourself, people in your position have to sound full of themselves else lose credibility and goodwill.  This is simply inherent in the position.  Ultimately, whether you are cavalier or not is born through your performance. 

I could understand you taking a break from the media if you had the bad habit of looking like an idiot or somewhat less than thoroughly destroying the other panel speakers of a discussion.  However, you do nothing of the sort.  In the world of obfuscation, manipulation, and blatant delusion, your voice is a breath of fresh air and much welcomed.  While I realize everyone talks their own book, I really like your book.  Please come out and start busting heads again.  We all love to see it.

In the end, you're going to be graded on your performance, regardless of your live antics.  Please return to the field and play some ball.

/s/ Machoman

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

I agree. Hugh your insights into the markets and the economy are refreshing. No one I personally know believes you are "full of yourself". In fact you are just the opposite. Its the other people that you argue with are "full of themselves".

The world needs more Hugh Hendrys and less Paul Krugmans!

 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment RallyRoundTheFamily
RallyRoundTheFamily's picture

Anyone contemplate that he may have been "told" to limit his media exposure.

Truth tellers have a history of "bad luck" with suicides, car and plane crashes, etc

Perhaps too many are believing what he has to say.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Yeah, he was told to...  he said it in an interview...  doesn't mean it's in perpetuity or the decision shouldn't be revisited...

At the end of the day, I think he can do whatever he wants.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

I agree. If I had an extra 50 to 75M, I would be inclined to let Hendry manage it over almost anyone else, and all I've seen is videos of him saying the Emperor has no clothes.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment noobscalade
noobscalade's picture

To me it seems obvious he is not "playing the game" because he still has a job to do. If he wakes the world up it squeezes the margin of his insight. His clients wouldn't like that. Once he feels he is done with the rat race he will return to the "game". However, by then it will be a different "game" we're all fussing over. 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Unreal. Stiglitz is more of a moron than I could have ever imagined. How does such a complete fool become a professor? With idiotic instructors such as this filling their gullible students minds with such utter bullshit, what kind of future do we really have?

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

It is only fools like Stiglitz that become professors.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

that shit never gets old.  love it

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment msjimmied
msjimmied's picture

"The danger when people look at that from a distance is that they try to align that with the guy that they’ve just given $50m or $75m to and it’s not the same person." 

It is Hugh, it is. The mask is the face. Depending on the medium used, we present different aspects of ourselves. You are a trader, your job is to look for chinks in the fabric of lies and shoot your arrow right through it. You have sighted the bullseye, don't hide that truth beneath some idiotic reticence for appearances sake. They are not sane, you are. You should read what Krishna told Arjuna, it forms the core of the Mahabharat. Let the arrows fly! 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Dharma, the other white light! :>D

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Hugh Hendry is a shining example of what it means to "misbehave" and have "no regrets", rooted in boundless curiosity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsR2duemqc8

H/T  Hugh Hendry.  He knows that a turd can't be polished, but it can be rolled in glitter.

Whatta fight clubber!

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment billsykes
billsykes's picture

I like him he is an excellent writer- this is his fund's letter to investors:

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/91766362?access_key=key-26mq0yhk3vz1tjr...

The only thing I was a bit surprised about was the lowish returns. But by no way should he feel that he comes off as a pompous ass he is just well spoken. 

 

 

 

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

returns right now are irrelevent, what's relevent is the intangible and unknowable positioning for what is to come. those who get washed out in the next crisis will be crying and wiped out permanently and those who survive will be thankful for their survival. no one will be complaining about a three or four years of low returns if they survive the next wash out and rebailout which will inevitably occur . 

the potlicially connected will even be able to make money on it if they know exactly when the decisions will be made. the others, like hugh henry have a job to do that is about predicting these events and capital preservation in an extremely predatory unstable environement. if you are not losing money you are ahead of the game. and for many investors, this is why they don't even want to expose themselves to the risk of keeping their money with a broker like you saw tihw mfgfg. 

cash under the mattress, or better yet, gold or land or a solid simple asset---is about the simplest way to avoid getting washed and rolled over by the printing press combined with  leverage implosion market cycle.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment billsykes
billsykes's picture

Even mainstream bill gross of Pimco said anything under 10% yield is shit. I like hugh but he needs to pump of those return muscles.

Tue, 07/17/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Hugh Hendry is on of the few who puts his money where his mouth is.

Most of them put taxpayers money in and talk nonsense.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 04:59 | Link to Comment sureseam
sureseam's picture

Commenting on this so late so probably no one will read it but anyway:

Listen carefully to Stiglitz he is talking about short term capacity (of Greece) to repay interest.

This is about "credit" which comes from the word "credo" meaning belief; and belief in this situation that you will get the principle back when you lend.

The pretense that the principle will be repaid has gone and is no longer even noticed.

The bond markets are walking a tightrope over the abyss whilst drunk on low interest rates - it cannot go on indefinitely.

Fri, 08/24/2012 - 01:50 | Link to Comment hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

Not sure if this means anything, but looks like Hugh drank all the water in his glass, the Spanish dude drank half and Stiglitz drank none.

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