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IceCap Asset Management March Perspectives: "I Need A Job"

Tyler Durden's picture


From IceCap Asset Management March 2012:

Just as Mr. Greenspan had a conundrum, so too does Mr. Bernanke. And just as Mr. Greenspan completely misunderstood his conundrum and how to address it, so too does Mr. Bernanke.

Mr. Bernanke was very clear that his conundrum is the job market. The reason his brow has become furrowed is due to the eternal question of whether the lack of a strong recovery in jobs is cyclical or structural.

Now since most people live in the real World, this concept of cyclical versus structural falls on deaf ears. However, it’s actually a very important concept for you to understand and it could even save you a few bucks in your portfolio.

Cyclical simply means the regular ebbs and flows of a market. Think of your daily commute to work (if you have a job) – some days are longer, some are shorter but in general they are quite predictable.

Structural refers to the underlying foundation and how it supports the system. For example, what happens if suddenly in the middle of the night the bridge everyone uses collapses. Suddenly your commute has become a lot more complicated and will remain complicated for a long time.

In the real World, 6 million people had their bridge collapse and lost their jobs. Yet, in Mr. Bernanke’s World this cyclical inconvenience could easily be fixed simply by cutting interest rates to 0%, spending billions on “shovel ready” projects, and cutting taxes. Sadly, a funny thing didn’t happen - the usual boomerang (or cyclical) rebound in new jobs has not occurred, and for some strange reason the collapsed bridge hasn’t been replaced either.

The high levels of employment reached during the 2004-2007 period were achieved on the backs of the housing and debt bubbles. During that time, economic growth was boosted by 400% as a result of people taking equity out of their homes (mortgage equity withdrawal). Considering no one has any equity left in their homes to withdraw, economic growth and the jobs that come with it are going to have to find another adrenalin shot. If you know the next big thing – feel free to share it, the World needs it.

Full note:



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Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:44 | 2327104 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

I suggest that we nationalize the FED and declare all debts null and void. That will solve the debt crisis immediately

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:49 | 2327120 Future Tense
Future Tense's picture

There are rumors that are growing stronger that the government is considering wiping away some of the student loan debt. They will probably wait until it becomes more of a crisis. It is amazing that citizens of Spain cannot walk away from debt owed on real estate like here in America. This article provides a strong analysis of the most recent data out of Spain, including the bond levels that need to be sold in 2012.....

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:02 | 2327150 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Here's a great example of lookin' for hard work:

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:38 | 2327199 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

"He hates these cans!!!"

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:47 | 2327205 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

The real unemployment rate - new to the job mkt/can't find work + out of work/on benefits + out of work/off benefits = c. 25%. Volatile youth cohort: 50%. Black/Hispanic youth: don't ask. To intensifying race tensions, factor in the IranWar (starts late August/early September) + oil price spike/dollar collapse + election, and there's more than enough cultural, economic, and political tinder for Civil War. A single spark will start a prarie fire. Invest in lead.  

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:57 | 2327122 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Colombian Gringo

Jubillee?  I support some version of this plan.  With this much debt (and I'm a saver), the only other solutions are default or repudiation.  That which is not servicable will not be serviced. It sucks, but there will have to be some consequences for deadbeats.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:33 | 2327193 Doña K
Doña K's picture

We are at a point that labor costs have come down enough and if you were to deduct transportation costs from Asia to the US, we can gear up producing stuff here. Usefull stuff that is. Not Junk.

Thus, if Bennie and the Inkjets had any brains, they could influence congress to go on a bring jobs home spree by increasing import duties. by giving tax incentives for new factories (big and small) and get the union leaches out of the picture.

With organized labor to carry the lazy and the unproductive, to buy political favors and to push for unrealistic wages, the US is toast.

Sometimes, the truth hurts, the truth is bitter and many people can not handle the truth.

We have all seen the hair raising performance of Jack Nickolson. If that does not move you, you are a dead man without feelings and or ideals.

For those who have not seen it, here it is once again.


Mon, 04/09/2012 - 03:21 | 2327357 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

We are at a point that labor costs have come down enough and if you were to deduct transportation costs from Asia to the US, we can gear up producing stuff here. Usefull stuff that is. Not Junk.


Sure, sure.

Homeless working as human wifi tower: payday expectation:20 bucks.

People working in Amazon delivery sweat shop depot: $60 per day, taxes removed.

Labour cost can not fall beneath Asian and other parts of the world as a result of Smithian economics.

Smithian economics leads to concentrate wealth on certain areas by transfering it from other areas.

As wealth is concentrating on one area, this area grows automatically more expensive to live on.

That labour cost arbitration thing is a pipe dream. It can not happen.

The US of A keeps concentrating wealth (as a normal expectation due to finite earth), meaning living in the US will grow always more expensive.

Bernanke and co know this. That is why they engineered the housing bubble: to provide US citizen middle class with an inventory of houses they could not have bought otherwise.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:51 | 2327210 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

There will have to be some consequences for deadbeats?

Ha! Dictator Obama turns up his Mussolini nose and scoffs at your ridiculous attempt at humor!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 03:22 | 2327358 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

The problem that no one sees is that the consequences for these "deadbeats" will not be very humane at all. There are entire classes of these government dependant types as well as simple debtors who are going to find themselves at the mercy of something very nasty - systemic austerity, basicly instead of that welfare/unemployment/you name it check from the feds/state - people get nothing, and debtors get their house/car taken by a financial istitution that would rather have your house or car than a worthless debt secured piece of paper.

No one sees this coming? Are we blind? How many white elephants have to plop their arse in our living room before history looks back on us as a bunch of outright morons!? 

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 07:55 | 2327482 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

Governments are about to default across the globe. It makes no difference if the debt is cancelled or defaulted. Investors in governmnet debt are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think they will get any money back in five years time. The meteor will impact the earth despite the efforts to blow it up before it hits. No state pensions, no benefits, nada. Fiscal tsuanmis on impact.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:07 | 2327234 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Sounds great but I believe that would start a war with China

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:26 | 2327379 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

I believe that the plan is to extend debt as far as possible over all of society such that we are nearly all "sinners."  Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.  There will be few to cast that stone, if my analysis is correct.

So I have decided to abandon my prudent life of living within my means, saving, and "doing the right thing."  I paid my federal taxes this year with a credit card.  That credit card will never be paid off.  I will be living on credit for the next year or so, and I intend to live well.

The system is irreparably corrupt.  Trillion dollar bailouts for the banks, and life crushing austerity and debt for the serfs.  Everyone's scamming someone or something, and the few of us that live within our means and pay our debts are nothing but suckers in this game.

I will no longer be a sucker.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:44 | 2327105 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Just Kidding. Really, we are so Screwed.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:01 | 2327144 noob
noob's picture

Uncle Remus: Wir sind also geschtupped.

Translation / So we are geschtupped (schtupped? - screwed).

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:16 | 2327159 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Remember in the 90s & 2000s when all the manufacturing jobs were being exported overseas, but the economy didn't shrink, because of the credit/internet/housing bubble?


That's the source for our structural unemploymen.t  All those manufacturing jobs were outsourced under the cover of credit expansion.


Well, that credit bubble popped.


Now, millions in the labour class are jobless, while the rentier class are richer than ever!

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:21 | 2327171 noob
noob's picture theory.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 05:00 | 2327392 Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

They started exporting manufacturing jobs overseas back in the '70's.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:45 | 2327112 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Under Employed?   T --__  __    Barka lounger! 

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:45 | 2327113 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I don't think greenspan or bernanke did/do misunderstand anything. They just don't give a damn. They have other priorities.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:45 | 2327114 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Well this was depressing.  We are truly and seriously boned.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:04 | 2327153 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

this is a total SHOCKER!

but then again.....

the most  abundant sign  on the front of small businesses in my town is....


jobs? what jobs? to have jobs you have to have businesses!

or a really big war.....

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:44 | 2327115 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Who cares... the sheeple are gonna start a race war...

New Black Panthers: Race War For Trayvon April 9th 'Day of Action'

Goddamn fucking fools!!!!!!!!!

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:53 | 2327133 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

K00l  d00g<

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:04 | 2327151 Hapte
Hapte's picture

Sounds scary.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:05 | 2327232 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Starting a race war may be Obama's only last hope for trying to get re-elected.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:26 | 2327254 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

It's not about Obama. Obama, like Romney, is a puppet. It's a distraction to redirect the anger from the banksters (occupy wallstreet, Ron Paul supporters, anti-war activists, pro-constitution groups) to each other (between races, classes)... it's all a big distraction so the criminals don't get punished.

If this wasn't the case, the MSM and politicians wouldn't be going out of their way to promote this race division bullshit and the FBI would be rounding up the New Black Panthers right now. But that's not what they are doing.

/got militia?

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:39 | 2327263 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

I think you've missed the forest for the trees. Wise up. Look at what is happening all around you...

For Obama, Holder, and their band of race pimps and hustlers (Jesse Jackass, Al Sharpton, etc.) it is ALL about race. And their lap-dog PC MSM are only too willing to help fan the flames in order to sell the "news." Example... the doctored NBC Zimmerman audio tape. 'Nuff said!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 01:16 | 2327298 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I'm just saying. All these people you mentionned work for the banksters, they are useful puppets. They are pawns.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 02:14 | 2327323 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

The vast majority of black people aren't anywhere near stupid enough to start a race war.  Those that are will be dealt with quickly.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 02:57 | 2327341 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I know. Hell ``black people`` are just like any other Americans... they want jobs, a good education for their kids, live a happy life, be free, the corrupt politicians and banksters to go to prison. Only a minority of extremists (on all sides) want a race war because they are useless idiots.

The big goal of the elite with this made up crap is : divide and conquer so the country can be fully bankrupted, the country put into martial law and guns taken... then it'll be mass genocide Stalin/Mao/Hitler style.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 03:14 | 2327355 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The big goal of the elite with this made up crap is : divide and conquer so the country can be fully bankrupted, the country put into martial law and guns taken...


No. In US citizenism, the middle class is the king class.

Divide and conquer? On what ground? The US People chose its divisions a long time ago.

It is by popular will. Poor have a low vote turnout rate in the US and the rich can afford buying legislators.

The US citizen elite manage the various moods of the US citizen middle class.

Racism is central to US citizenism. US citizens reap a lot from racism, a rather profitable origin of their prosperity.

US citizen elite have nothing to do when it comes to racial division as US citizens chose since inception to thrive on it.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 03:29 | 2327361 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

Your perspective belongs on MSNBC or CNN. Go and interview for a job, they will hire you quickly.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:47 | 2327118 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

For what it's worth, SP futures down 15 points, Asian markets red.  

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:26 | 2327183 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

Hey hey hey hey....don't be treading on my avatar man.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:29 | 2327381 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

His name and avatar are both better than yours.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:53 | 2327130 KickIce
KickIce's picture

In other words, government has run out of bubbles to inflate.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 02:53 | 2327338 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

Nah, there's brand new machinery that spies the sheeple. How about the tax on unproductive fuck ?

Each time someone fucks his wife without the intention of getting her pregnant, ( terrorist activity ),  owes $20 to the IRS.

If you try to avoid the tax with wanking, DHS deploys an SWAT team to force you to fullfill your patriotic duty.

Just an idea.  ( Derivatives even more exiting ).

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:30 | 2327382 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

No.  The fascism bubble isn't even half way inflated.  What do you think all those TSA jobs are about?  The ever expanding security state?  Fascism is the next bubble.  That and more wars.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:53 | 2327131 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What a coincidence, I've always felt that trading in the markets was like driving in traffic.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:53 | 2327132 Cursive
Cursive's picture


If you know the next big thing – feel free to share it, the World needs it.


Debt counseling (cue rim shot).  Seriously, this is a generational thing.  Developed countries have started aging massively and prior to that the populations of the developed countries accumulated mountains of debt.  Japan was first.  Why didn't the internet revolution completely transform the Japanese economy for the better?  

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 06:38 | 2327418 mckee
mckee's picture

Screw your debt counseling .... I'm long Skylanders!

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:54 | 2327134 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

You have to actually make something besides debt in order to have a real economy.

Amazing how primitive the employment calculations are, when the same super computers that listen to your phone calls and copy your email could simply be switched on to log official employment per SSN.  Its like a monkey trying to fuck a football.  Get ready to have your IP address become your cell phone number and employment ID.

Funny how many times the same SSN is used by illegals to get free money and democrats votes.

Never-mind that a "job" today does not have the earning power of a job in the 60's.

You want to know how the economy is doing?

Walk out your front door at 7AM and count the cars leaving driveways for the day.

88 million not doing too much these days - except selling grandma's china on eBay to pay the cell phone bill.

The country is one big garage sale.  10 cents on the dollar in order to buy a happy meal and a mocha.

Just remember its the banks.  The banks.  The banks.

And the wild beasts that ran the country into the ground for fun and profit.



Sun, 04/08/2012 - 22:55 | 2327135 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Jobs? We don't need no stinkin' jobs!! We've got da gubmint to take care of us!

Ben'll fix it...he's got a printer...he's an expert on depressions...he really cares about his people--er, I mean, us people...just you wait and see....

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:04 | 2327152 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

The next big thing? Default. What happens if thousands, tens of thousands, or even millions decide, out of desperation, to default en masse?

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:35 | 2327384 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

I've actually decided to go that path.  Run up $50K or so in credit card debt then refuse to pay and leave the country.  What's my FICO score gonna matter on another continent?

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:06 | 2327155 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

cant even get a gold bubble going...

Mining stocks are in a bear market

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:16 | 2327165 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 FUCK CHINA !     SANS 'Barbra Streisand", South Park Godzilla ,          FLOAT the " YUAN"!

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:20 | 2327169 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

the next great thing ......Barter

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:24 | 2327177 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture


Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:27 | 2327173 barliman
barliman's picture



What the world in a collective and on an individual basis will face is reality. It is not cycilical in nature - it has been denied on the macro scale since the start of QE 1 and its structural aspects are going to hammer everything flat when it can no longer be denied.

We've talked about it endlessly on ZH over the lst three years:

Reflating the markets was the Too Stupid To Fail game plan from day one and has always had a net position of zero chance of success.

"We'll just pretend the amount of debt is meaningless as long as the major markets are brought back to their pre-Lehman levels."  Every person who has bought into this insanity deserves whatever reality they are forced to face when it unwinds.

The unwind has not yet happened. What would have been survivable 3 years ago has now been made into a M.A.D. scenario by Bernanke and his ilk. What "wiggle room" was available in system then has now been spent on a vast game of pretend - while the sand continued to slip from underneath the foundations while we ALL watched (Exactly when did housing recover? Exactly when was the EU anything but a ponzi scheme? Exactly when was China going to become a net consumer vs export economy?).

Race war? - I don't think so and I hope not. If we do, it will be brief, ugly and stands a 1 in 4 chance of bringing slavery back into the mix. No, liberals hiding in here pretending to be ZH'ers, the greatest failure regarding race relations has nothing to do with CRT. It has everything to do with money/assets/influence/outlook of any specific group. African-Americans are demonstrably in a net negative balance over the last 50 years thanks to the Great Society and convincing this specific group to constantly think of themselves as victims. Another bit of unpleasant news for you - the vast majority of people on this planet are sooo racist it would make your teeth hurt & 99% of them live outside the United States. By the way, we owe these people a crapton of money and they are going to want something tangible when they won't take our money or UST's any more. We might end up deciding to export our unproductive consumers as involuntary exports as a means of settling accounts.

The next big thing?  Liquidity.  It always has been and always will be about liquidity.


Mon, 04/09/2012 - 02:13 | 2327321 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture


Another bit of unpleasant news for you - the vast majority of people on this planet are sooo racist it would make your teeth hurt & 99% of them live outside the United States.

Funny, I've been to the other hemisphere, and just about to the opposite side of mine, and stayed in one long enough to learn the language, and I never ran into all those racists...  I guess it must be me.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 06:33 | 2327415 GCT
GCT's picture

Indeed Barliman.  Having spent most of my adult life in other countries Racism does indeed abound.  I can remember reading articles published in German newpapers about Americans.  They wanted our government to lower the amount of black soldiers in Europe.  Why?  They did not like the thought of mixed race babies being made on their soil.

My first wife was Japanese and well any other race was infereior to theirs and they would openly publish this in their papaers.  Racism does indeed abound in other countries they do not have the PC thing going on like we do here in America.  Women in America actually have it better then in most other countries of the world. 

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:21 | 2327174 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

The next new 'things' are likely yrs away and some of them might actually destroy jobs.  Lately most of what we get is just unproductive aspects.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:50 | 2327391 Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

Isn't called "creative destruction"?

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:29 | 2327184 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

The next big thing is an aircraft carrier arriving in the Persian Gulf theater right about now, so they hope.

Seriously, think about what they did last time around to create a big next thing. Disaster capitalism.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:34 | 2327194 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Speaking of aircraft carriers, aren't they nuclear powered, as in the same nuclear power that Japan is struggling to control after the tsunami??

We send these sitting ducks out there as targets.  I don't care what kind of defense these aircraft carriers have, there are only so many missles and torpedoes they can stop and after that?

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:35 | 2327264 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

War might be too limited in scale to be a Big Thing anymore. Weather, on the other hand, has global scope.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:30 | 2327186 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

"I gotta job...killing cock-roaches in your filthy building"  -M. Rourke (The Barfly)

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:05 | 2327229 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Not any more. Gov't now requires an individual death certificate for each and every assassinated cockroach.  

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:31 | 2327188 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Remember the Rodney King Riots in LA?

It wasn't about Rodney King as much as it was socio/economic.  People were frustrated and broke.  Rodney was the straw that broke the camel's back.

In the end Rodney wondered, "Why the fuck can't people get along."

I wonder the same thing.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:41 | 2327385 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

And the police back in the 90's weren't all kevlar clad carrying M4's.  The American police state these days would just have shot Rodney King 64 times, then arrested the guy who video taped it and charged him with 3 felonies, ruined him and his family financially, and put him in prison for 10 years.


And the rioters would be dealt with by the U.S. Army's rapid reaction force, part of NorthCom, set up specifically to brutalize and murder the American people when the inevitable riots begin after austerity is imposed on America.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:33 | 2327190 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Don't listen to " Ancient Scriptures"...    

                                                             I believe in an " entity"!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 03:33 | 2327362 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The Flying Spaghetti Monster FTW!

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:32 | 2327192 monopoly
monopoly's picture

True, they are, so I hope many are waiting for the right pitch on miners. We could see 1,535 in gold and 30 in silver. The pieces are together for a dollar rally. Means nothing long term but it appears for now confetti along with physical is a good combination. The good part is if we do see lower gold, well, who does not like a sale. THAT s is the kind of sale I can get excited about and am ready to take advantage of. 

And this was an excellent article. A good refresher for us here but we know most of what was posted. If you listen, you can learn much here at Zero Hedge.

How can so many people be fooled by so few ignorant public officials. It is truly mind boggling.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 01:07 | 2327291 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I'm talking my book now but I am counting on the miners too as it becomes obvious we'll soon see more QE.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:47 | 2327389 Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

I am also looking into the miners, but I expect it to take a while to pay off. The rare earths are also interesting.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 05:07 | 2327393 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Just remember what other resource is needed in the mining/refining process -- water. Better pick your mine locations very carefully and balance off the ore in the ground with the availability of water in the locality. People can get a might bit disturbed when they run low on water for the households, other businesses, or for their crops.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:38 | 2327198 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thanks Tyler.,

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 23:55 | 2327217 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I know the next big thing - human liberty.


Ron Paul 2012!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:42 | 2327386 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

I am not so optimistic.  Unfortunately the next big thing in America is creeping fascism, more wars, and more support of the fascist state in the name of national security.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:01 | 2327224 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Right. As if the FED wasn't involved when Bush took down the World Trade Centers.

Reasoning is not bad but based on a false premise.

They would much prefer you waste your time second guessing them while they take your tax dollars to build up DHS so they can kill you.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:05 | 2327231 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Bad Guys/ Did Bad Shit! Ass- Hole!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 00:43 | 2327271 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

The Money the FED put into the system went to all the wrong people.  It went to the top 1% who will not spend it into the economy to improve the GDP.  The top 1% will not spend the Money they have been given by the FED, they will save, hoard, stash it in items like gold, fine art or invest inthe Stock Market.  A great deal of the Money will be squirreled away Overseas and not effect the American Economy. Yet, this Money does nothing to create Jobs.  It does not stimulate the Economy.  The Money created was misplaced.

If the average person was given the Money that was given to the 1% then they would have spent it.  They would have bought Homes, Cars, furniture and items that would create jobs and improve everyones situation.

Volker did a good job when he tightened the Money supply and raised interest rates.  He created a type of panic in Real Estate as everyone was Buying thinking that they had to buy now because interest rates were going up and if they waited they could be priced out of the market because of the monthly payments.  The FHA offered individual Real Estate investors the ability to buy an investment property with a total cash out lay of 15% and an accelerated depreciation of the property to 15 years.  Housing inventory flew off the Market which helped to raise Real Estate Prices and created a lot of Jobs.  It is unbelievable just how many Industrys and Manufactures are reliant on strong housing.

Glass Segal is also an important factor.  With Glass Segal Banks could not use depositors Money to "Gamble" in the Market, buy CDS's, oil futures, corn, wheat, pork bellies, etc..  The Banks had to use depositors money for Loans to other Consumers to buy Homes, cars, for credit cards, personal loans, etc.  When the Banks had to Lend Money to make Money they stimulated the Economy.  Yet, without the Banks willing to lend as they can make more in short term money elsewhere they have dried up the preverbial spigot on growth.  They would rather have an HFT Computer trading the Market that makes them a Million Dollars a day with no potential downside than lend to someone who wants to buy a Home for 30 years.

Will think of some more tomorrow.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:45 | 2327388 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

Glass Segal?  As in Steven Segal?


As someone that has lived within his means and saved, I do not want to see money dumped onto the ignorant, ravenous, American sheeple just so they can cause a hyper inflationary orgy of consumption.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 01:08 | 2327293 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Fuck Off yya wana bee Junkster!  Take this trade!  CHF/JPY on a cross GBP/JPY @ 5 % you douche bag ass clown.

  P.S. I already tracked ya!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 01:12 | 2327297 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ifff? I would be buying ( aud/jpy)!  RBA a month away and carry is good!

   Not to mention GDP is OK!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 01:19 | 2327299 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

it is structural, but the fed is using a cyclcal approach to fight it.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 01:26 | 2327301 non_anon
non_anon's picture

the biggest employer, the Fed Gov

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 02:13 | 2327322 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

The next big thing.

Building a new monetary system from scratch.

Or laser tattoo removal clinics.

I can't decide.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 02:16 | 2327324 Dorky
Dorky's picture

"If you know the next big thing – feel free to share it, the World needs it."

The World needs nothing, except Ethics.

Not infinite oil. Not infinite power. Not infinite money. Not infinite money. But simply Ethics.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 03:53 | 2327369 sbenard
sbenard's picture

The actions of these elitists like Bubbles Bernanke always have unintended consequences. Am I the only one that has noticed that those "unintendeds" are always negative and harmful in nature?

What is it about the psyche of the Bernankes and Obamas that makes them oblivious to the destructiveness they cause? It is a mental disease of academics and intellectuals? Is it pure sickening hubris?

It appears to be something of a pride vs. humility characteristic that leads these people to see themselves as "entitled" to rule over everyone else! Perhaps intelligent people need a lobotomy that takes them down a notch or two (or five or six). How do we teach a sense of humility in people that will help them to acknowledge that they aren't gods with a right to rule in their delusionally-oblivious tyranny?

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:03 | 2327372 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Fuck Benanke, and the whole lot.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 04:49 | 2327390 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

"Shovel ready"  how I hate that term....So is  a pile of horse manure that needs to be cleaned out of a barn.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 05:10 | 2327394 Marc_W
Marc_W's picture

Real 5% unemployment is gone from America forever.  Wave bye bye, we had a good run.


The fascist-socialist welfare/warfare state is the name of the game today.  Most of the good jobs are in working for some branch of the fascist state, whether it's the banks or some part of the government (police, teachers, various paper pushers, TSA, DHS, military, etc.).  There will continue to be an ever declining number of creative and productive businesses, mostly centered around the usual cities on the American West coast and resource rich areas.  The rest of the population will subsist on the socialist welfare state.  With their SNAP cards, section 8 vouchers, free cell phones, free internet connections, and various other hand outs.


A highly optimized quasi-capitalist (fascist) society has no use for the bottom quintile of society.  Between outsourcing, shipping jobs overseas, and automation, those 20% have no place at the table.  Our benevolent socialist masters will not kill these useless eaters, though they jail many of them.  In their compassion for those less fortunate they will ensure that society is run in such a way that wealth is transferred from those "more fortunate" to those "less fortunate."


All part of the plan as America makes the final transition to state-capitalism (fascism) to compete with China and Russia.  You see, China and Russia have been beating America (and the rest of the Anglosphere) at its own game and the Anglo elite's have concluded that in order to compete we must follow suit.  This means less liberty and more central control.  They do not believe individual liberty will result in individual's making the kinds of choices necessary to compete with totalitarian autocratic regimes.  And they're right.  Americans, especially, have historically shown themselves to be isolationist and unwilling to make the kinds of sacrifices necessary to win the great game of geopolitics.  But that doesn't matter because all of the important decisions are out of the people's hands in our pseudo-democratic society.  You see, in order to protect freedom and the Anglosphere from the Chinese/Russians we must destroy individual liberty throughout the Anglosphere and become a totalitarian fascist regime.


The proof is in the pudding.  Just take a look at the policies adopted by the Anglosphere over these past 20 years.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 05:14 | 2327397 zonetraders
Mon, 04/09/2012 - 07:30 | 2327444 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The major stock market indexes LEAD the economy by 3 -4 months. 


We've seen the SP500 rise by about 18% in four months on relatively weak volume.  It appears the market has topped and is turning down now.

This morning, US markets are down - again.


But for the moment, the economy is living off this 4 month gain in markets.  By summer, this should change.


Don't judge - just get prepard.  If this is wrong, you lost a little effort and all will be ok.  If this is correct, you are ready.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 07:52 | 2327473 dir
dir's picture

Far be it from me to act as the Word Police, but this report is so rife with basic grammatical goofiness that it's hard to cut through to the accurate and useful meat of the report.

  • "46 year old Frank McGee also loses him job"
  • "Barrack Obama"
  • "the World"

Perhaps a proofreader would help in future editions.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 07:55 | 2327484 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture


Mon, 04/09/2012 - 08:10 | 2327508 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Mr. Bernanke was very clear that his conundrum is the job market. The reason his brow has become furrowed is due to the eternal question of whether the lack of a strong recovery in jobs is cyclical or structural

Try fucking greed as we need to include the Insurance PONZI. These greedy folks who are on the many boards of many different companies see only ONE THING---GREED---and you wonder why your premiums keep going up---its for the good of these productive people/sarc.============WHAT A SCAM.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 08:48 | 2327584 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The keyword for this entry is "Fixed Recovery"

Sounds right.

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 08:51 | 2327593 JustZaFakz
JustZaFakz's picture

Next big bubble?  The OIL industry:  drilling, transport,  and storage.  Both USA and Canada are drilling like mad in their bakken regions, oil pipelines are being proposed, once-untouchable land areas are being opened to drilling, off-shore oil drilling activity continues, old shut-in wells are revving up once again.  This will suck up the labor pool faster than a paper towel on a kitchen spill. We will see a renaissance of oil millionaires.  Attention was drawn to this employment opportunity on the FREE information website:    

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