This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
IIF's Dallara Warns Holdout Greek Bondholders Could Kill "Successful" Greek Deal
To all those who stayed up until 6 am local time yesterday to hear Europe announce that the Greek deal is done, Europe is fixed, and that a pot of gold was found at the end of the rainbow, our condolences. Sorry, no isn't. Following up on our earlier post about the potential of UK-law bondholders to once again scuttle the deal, here comes none other than the IIF's Charles Dallara who basically says that the fate of Greece, the Euro, and the Eurozone, are in the hands of Greek creditors as we have been cautioning all along. And after all why on earth would hedge funds who just lost over 70% of their recoveries bear a grudge whatsoever...
From the BBC Newsnight interview to air at 10:30 pm tonight:
Jeremy Paxman: What is to stop someone like a hedge fund or someone who has bought Greek debt trying to trigger the insurance involved in a credit default swap?
Charles Dallara: Well there is nothing I am aware of, Jeremy, that will definitively stop someone who wants to take such action and there is no iron clad guarantee...that individual investors may not contemplate counter-productive activity here. They have the rights they have the legal rights they have the market judgements to make....
Jeremy Paxman: If the insurance system worked they could recover perhaps 100% of the money they've lent the Greeks instead of something like 30%
Charles Dallara: Its not inconceivable. If too many go in that direction though, the system breaks down, we will not have the successful conclusion of this deal and then where will they be?...
Jeremy Paxman: The whole deal could still be held for ransom?
Charles Dallara: I don't eliminate that possbility.
Oops. Well, so much for that. And where Elliott is involved, Elliott wins.
Full clip after the jump:
»
- 15658 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Bullish!!!!!
Right at the top....13K and the historical 'effect' of psychological barriers:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/02/dow-13k.html
The market can only go up! The Media told me so....
If you see ANY red, it's an illusion!
You mean to tell me people do not like being shit on?
Serious?
> "If too many go in that direction though, the system breaks down "
If it looks like a Ponzi, talks like a Ponzi, and quacks like a Ponzi.... chances are... it's a Ponzi.
It's one not two. Poop doesn't 'trickle down'. Well....somtimes I guess.
Seriously....does it get any nuttier than having "faith" and "confidence" that private banksters, hedge funds, etc. are willing to unanimously cooperate in "shared sacrifice" for the greater good of European Union?
Yet....apparently, this is what is purported here. The cycles make sense....the history outlined in the context of those cycles is often hard to believe....but yet virtually everyone does!
Are you serious? Someone needs to buy up some greek CDS and bonds and burn it all to the ground.
The politicians around the world will cry evil speculators but, we all know greece is bankrupt and they would be better off Collecting tax renevue going forward and running off that instead of pandering to the EU/ECB/IMF. If they hold out then they are holding the banks hostage not the people because it is all going to burn down anyway why not rip the bandaid off fast instead of pulling it slow and passing out just to wake up and try again?
SHRIIIIIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Well there is nothing I am aware of.."
"Its not inconceivable."
"I don't eliminate that possbility."
Double negatives = as sure as hell
Never underestimate the powers of hopium and denial.
I wouldn't stop myself from saying it's not unwise to never unremember that it's not an unlikely event these days.
Greek bondholders are fucking zombies holding on to nuclear sludge killing dead deals for dying nations!
So I'm making money on most fucked up Tuesday!! Let the morons keep jerking us and I'll take resultant profits!
Blame shift, bitchez!
It's all because of hedge funds now.
Precisely. Everything would be fine if the bondholders would just bend over and not object to being raped. Silly bondholers.
"Precisely. Everything would be fine if the bondholders would just bend over and not object to being raped. Silly bondholers."
While the central bank gets paid. Who do thise fucking capitalist pigs think they are?
Fascist pigs perhaps, capitalism left the building a long time ago. Unless you meant the bondholders, who are naive and not entirely blameless victims for thinking capitalism still existed.
Precisely. There is no capitalism anymore. Fascism at best more at Rigged Ponzi Casino. More importantly, economics1996 should be renamed moronics1996racist.
" Who do thise fucking capitalist pigs think they are?"
Bankers
The bondholders should have remembered that historically, Greeks like ass rape.
Since Greece is the first one to go, I suppose one could feel some degree of sympathy. By the time it gets to US Treasuries, my sympathy will be gone.
Playing out perfectly... operation robo-kill enters its first phase. Thanks Dallara, let the world know how the whole deal is being held hostage.
Fuck em...they can call this what it is...a DEFAULT...or they can kiss my ass.
You mean people who saw the credit crisis coming don't want to take a 99% haircut? Shocker.
It is the people who were aware of the Greek credit problems and decided to reap a fee for insuring the repayment by Greece who now want to hold the whole deal hostage. If the CDS were paid out now, then those who wrote the insurance could easily agree to the PSI. It is only the insurers who stand in the way of the resolution.
Even Obama sticks by the deals he negotiates - for at least 24 hours
First banker out first wins!! trigger them damn CDS and break its back!
Ye Olde Prisoners Dillema.
The game theory one or the "shit I dropped the soap one". I believe the outcome will be the same.
The whole deal could still be held for ransom?
...or not.
Yesterday's one-time, emergency, law-busting cramdown is today's precedent. Think Chrysler, "fair share" and a wand waving over a hastilly convened press conference.
(enter stage Left: Sovereign Debt Czar)
So this whole thing is a giant ramp job. Nice one. Remind me to thank Lloyd for that one.
this shit is just plain fucking stupid...
make it stop...please make it stop....
Icleand Bitchez....Iceland you fucking Greek bitchez.................
for crying out loud.....................
apparently the more vocal and awake people need to "retire" their corrupted and coopted government before they follow Iceland's lead.
Greece is too dependent on imports to do that. Not surprising that between being raped and being hungry they would choose the first option.
Just keep the pressure on until she says yes, right? It doesn't matter how many times someone says no when you're a banker. They are eventually going to get effed.
Where's my Broker?! WHERE'S MY #@$*&% BROKER!!!!
"Where's my Broker?! WHERE'S MY #@$*&% BROKER!!!!
Probably at "Happy Hour" by now....laughing with the other big shots how the market went up again today.
Gold certainly isn't buying the "Greek Fix"...
Quick! Somebody manufacture a rumor!!! Just choose a time tested template-
-
-
-
1) China to the rescue!
2) New IMF 9 trillion super deluxe bailout fund!
3) Think happy thoughts...?
Moira?
If the Elliott hedge fund is involved, then this is going to be one messy default.
From the wiki on Elliott Management Corporation:
A small portion of Elliott's distressed securities trading has been in sovereign debt, most recently Argentina and Congo-Brazzaville. Elliott is well-known for its investment in the distressed debt of Peru. In 1995, Elliott bought $20 million face value of defaulted Peruvian bank debt. After extensive and costly litigation and numerous attempts by Elliott to settle, the Court awarded $58 million to Elliott, including past due interest. More recently, Elliott's efforts to enforce judgments against Congo-Brazzaville totaling more than $100 million in defaulted bank debt have contributed to exposing corruption in the country.[12] Elliott states that it only targets countries that can afford to pay, but have decided not to, and has emphasized its efforts to root out corruption in countries like the Republic of Congo.[4]
So, the questions is: can Greece afford to pay, but has decided not to?
But, but, but the IIF is supposed to have the support and backing of all the private sector bond holders right??? I think I will start a new career as a representative for the needs of unicorns. I won't actually do anything but as long as I get paid in gumdrops and smiles I'll be happy.
Nice big asterisk there.
"Most of the groups THAT I AM IN COMMUNICATION WITH support the deal"
What percent are you in communication with? 95%? 80%? 50%?
Well, he has discussed with his family and they support the deal.
He's also talked to his underlings at the IIF and they also support the deal.
Last but not least he's discussed it with himself in front of a mirror and as it turns out, all of "Me", "Myself" and "I" agree with the deal.
The Greek deal will be a success and Europe is saved!
He says, "They'll put their shoulder to the wheel to pull this together."
grindstones not what they used to be
What I find amusing is that the headlines and news pimps keep calling this a "deal", when in reality, nothing has been agreed upon by all parties involved. I call it wishful thinking. I can't do anything but stand here like a slack-jawed moron and wonder at the absurdity of it all.
They are optimistic. They are leaders. They have seen the Secret.
You get a CDS! Eveybody gets a CDS!
-Oprah
kill those HF shill to the last drop...they deserve it, the scavengers.
Who do you want to kill to the last drop?
just think, all of those evil hedge fund managers would be responsible for the end of the world....its bad enough they arent liked now.............just think of their reputation after the world implodes...............thats some heavy burden to be carrying...........
Maybe Phil Falcone can make his comeback here? Got greek debt Phil?
The hedgefunds are simple dung beetles cleaning up the dietrius deposited by the true predators. The predators being CDS issuing banks who collected fees for insurance with incompetent and negligent, most likely criminal, actuarial risk management.
Before this global collapse is finished, the (fiscal sanity) holdouts will be tarred and feathered in the name of maintaining the PONZI can kicking.
Those who threaten to hold out will be able to leverage a higher percentage to maintain the Illusion. Of course there is always the possibility that some will be too greedy or that those taking a bigger hit will object. The bottom line is you can be sure that "some are more equal than others"
Exactly, any person or entity that stands on rule of law to the detriment of this ponzi will be lucky to get tar and feathers.
The worldwide ponzi is coming apart but so very many individual actors from Charles here to your son in law the stock broker, the friendly local retiree simply counting on 8% returns, the overpaid government worker all of them will do anything to keep it afloat. Marx's class war is coming but will be different from the one he envisioned or maybe not so different..
Do not count on rule of law, start to plan for scenarios that leave rule of law behind.
bedlam
Beans, bullets, bullion and belief before bedlam because busy bees breed better babies bitchez.
"There are going to be a lot of people coming together in the coming weeks to pull this together"
We are going to have to hear about this everyday for weeks still. If they expend this amount of energy and resources spent on such a little country, what is the hell are they gonna do when it's us?
Call in UN peace-keeping troops.
I feel sorry for those poor fellas. They'll simply be target practice.
Those blue helmets will stand out like a clay pigeon.
Jeremy Paxman: "If the insurance system worked they could recover perhaps 100% of the money they've lent the Greeks..."
This a major assumption that is not valid. AIG (cough...cough)
Insurers will notice they have enough to pay out 3% of the claims and use/lose all their money. Can anyone say litigation please?
"The deal was phony, the terms were phony, the country was phony, their bonds were phony. We aren't paying anything to you other crooks.
So there never was a successful deal. Dam no golf this week
Eh... they got their bump on the Dow, that should medicate the sheeple for another week or two
NEVER CAN HAVE A DOWN MONDAY. That is the rule. As someone just might Sell. People worry over the weekend so you have to keep the Market Up on Monday at all costs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adHMWQOxZC0
I maintain that actually having a real greek deal is bad for any future auctions of U.S. debt. Hence, there will never be a deal. Once the E.Z. is settled, the world may actually pay attention to the mother of all insolvencies.
If the ponzi system breaks down, then where will they be?
Well in a much better world, of course, in which the monetary system isn't built on a gigantic paper ponzi that's destroying the wealth of the world by misallocating resources and causing those resources to flow into unproductive areas, such as into the government's hands.
The sooner the ponzi ends, the better. The bigger the ponzi gets, the more painful the bursting of the fiat bubble will be.
TheSilverJournal.com
There is no misallocation of resources: resources go where US citizens want them to go, that is themselves.
Resources go to the most efficient consumers ever, ensuring they are consumed once for good.
And no bright future coming on, you dont build a bright future on less and less resources.
US citizens, stealing the present was not enough, now we are stealing your future.
I'm pretty sure I can't wave a magic wand and get resources to go where I want, so no, US citizens can't get resources to go wherever they want. I would like a lot of resources but wishful thinking isn't quite going to do it.
The misallocation is caused by the government controlling the price of money through interest rates, therefore borrowing from future prosperity in order to over consume today and destroying the savings and capital that would have been used in order to consume in the future. Also, the government prints currency, which is misallocating resources because that newly printed currency steals its value from currency already in existence and then the government goes on to squander those resources by pooring them into unproductive areas.
TheSilverJournal.com
Hmmm?? Door # 1 - trigger the CDS for 100% or Door #2 - get fucked in the ass by a very large Greek Jabba the Hut???
Monty, I'm taking Door #1!!
"Coming Weeks" ??? Did he say "weeks" ????? guess it was not a done deal.
I should fucking hope the "under UK law bondholders" would throw a big ass spanner in the works.
These ECB fucks don't care about any rules of law or precedents.
They are just looking forward to the next meeting at a 5 star hotel and room service.
They should pass a rule that every "emergency" meeting to resolve the same fucking problem triggers a 50% haircut in their compensation.
Let them eat sandwiches out of a bag and meet in a courtyard.
We are now in Week 8 of the seemingly never ending rise of the /ES.
If it closes green again this week, it will tie the record for consecutive weeks rising as far back as my charts go (20 years).
This is beyond ridiculous.
this is like Tantalus reaching for the fruit only to be forever disappointed
Did you hear? The only way is UP! :D
Bernanke's wallet has predicted the future... IT'S OVERWHELMINGLY GREEN!...
Where is robotrader? He should be out here gloating. Boy it sure climbed a wall of worry this time.
Pay those private bondholders off under the table and lets get on it.
Spain now please.
Does the concept of triggering a credit default swap scare the pale vibrating fellow?
hedgies will trigger CDS when they know the game is over and their clients are coming for them.
Which would YOU prefer, 30% or 100% (or more)? Duh?
It's estimated that Hedge Funds only own about 5 Billion in Greek Debt.
A Sisyphean task.
I'm disappointed in today's end of day ramp. It's been quite... limp.
The standoff continues.
The bond holdouts may be secretly paid by Greek unions to tank their country, as that seems to be their goal.......
Why not use the 'Bernanke solution' and just give the private bond holders their profits and charge the tax payers..??
Is this organized crime, or disorganized crime?
Organized crime, disorganized default
I love it maybe we should forward this to CNBC.... i sat around this am listening to Erin Burnet, that Cee U Next Tuesday, stae over and over how the Greek deal was done.....FN joke...remember Blodgett....Dorfman...and the guys who have been charged with mkt manipulation....tell me why the puppets at CNBC arent included in these charges.....WTF ...u wanna know why if the mkt goes up then nooone gets hurt...what a fn joke...its still manipulation..by the way the Steve leisman and Joe Kernan commercials are a a joke they couldnt trade their way out of a paper bag....clowns...as the old saying those who can do those who cant teach/report
Uhm .... Erin Burnet doesn't work for CNBC anymore. She moved to CNN about 6 months ago. Has her own hour long prime time show, so she hasn't even spoken in public about the Greek debt deal yet.
Wanna try again?
just called cnbc to tell them how irresponsible they are and told them about this report and they hung up on me....they dont want to air anything bad what a fucking joke...everyone should call
201 735 2622 ask for the news desk...the girls names was Brie...like the cheese....
I feel like Gomer Pile on the Andy Griffin show. Suprise, Suprise, Suprise.
What I have yet to hear anyone say is that they take a 70% haircut now, and in a year they take another 70% hair cut or about 90% total. Why in the bleeps name would they ever go along with this? LTRO is going to have to be awefully huge to twist those arms.
According to the ISDA, Greece is not a default. JPM, GS, BAC, C and WFC run the ISDA. Gee, imagine that. Esp considering there the ones that sold the insurance.
Oh and btw..........I want a check for all my stupid stock picks over the past couple years while they're at it.
All caterers will remain on standby.
"Jeremy Paxman: What is to stop someone like a hedge fund or someone who has bought Greek debt trying to trigger the insurance involved in a credit default swap?
Charles Dallara: Well there is nothing I am aware of, Jeremy, that will definitively stop someone who wants to take such action and there is no iron clad guarantee...that individual investors may not contemplate counter-productive activity here. They have the rights they have the legal rights they have the market judgements to make.
..."
This whole CDS and the question of what/when/how/where its triggered is pure horse hockey. No way on gods green earth do the folks who took out the CDS not have it spelled out in precise/clear terms of exact details of what triggers CDS payout and waiting for some organization who manages CDS to be the end all, be all, say all of when exactly a default has happened is pure horse puck. These folks put the capital D in Details and I find it hard to believe they did not spell out clearly in the contracts specifically in D.E.T.A.I.L. what it would be triggered by, what the payouts are and a haircut of any kind, especially deep into the double digits would be a default and trigger to me.
/course what do I know, other than running a car into a bridge piling and is 66% smaller is declared salvage, sounds like it would trigger some insurance yeah?
So is every one going to be NICE and just stand in line??? is that what happens , no one has the balls to demand full payment?? If i were your representative wouldn't you demand it or has the whole world been cowed into submission???
...wow! even the tone in this assholes voice rings true to the prophetic strong delusion. This guy sounds like a father that just slaughtered his Son like a China (PIIGS) Pig and is sad that everyone can see that he's full of shit and needs to take another dump in the PIIGS pen. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84nz5K1yoYs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh3pVpJIGU8
Somewhere near Atlanta GA a tap dancing Bob Prechter is tapping down Peachtree Blvd in endless concentric fibonacci induced Elliott Waves screaming laugh at me will they - EVEN A BROKEN CLOCK IS CORRECT TWICE A DAY!!!! DIE BITCHEZ DIE!!!! And the dance continues...perhaps a little Ozo & some plates to toss at the fireplace tonight!
MUST READ
http://www.scribd.com/doc/82358492/Eurostudy-0212-Primer-Euro-Breakup-De...
??????
So, essentially the bond holders have the opportunity in front of them right now to bring down the whole global ponzi by seeking their CDS rights? Sorry, that sounds like a wonderful thing, but this has been worked through already for that eventuality. Greece won't bring the global ponzi cartel to their knees, but it would sure be a nice kick in the balls as the opening throw
Point re Elliott....they sit on the EMEA, which is the regional body at ISDA that determines whether or not a default event has occured. Others on EMEA who might have a vested interest different from the big banks are DE Shaw and, maybe, Citadel. How the vote is taken, I do not know.
Point re law....what law? As numerous bailouts have demonstrated over the last few years, laws can be changed on a whim and grandfathered as needed by those with the power to change them. If Greece can insert CACs well after the fact, what is to prevent them from first canvassing bondholders, then making the CAC hurdle whatever number it needs to be?
Point re means of coercion....just a quote from recent history, made by a conveninetly temporary "public servant": "I'll sick the IRS on you and every single on of your investors!"
Link now goes to the whole interview. BBC has updated
I don't get it. The EU screws all the investors by doing illegal bond swaps because they can change the rules at will. Well except for the bonds under british law and they expect them to bow to their will. What a fricking farce, I wish I had a british bond CDS would be the way to go! Screw the ECB. I would take my chances on getting more then they are offering.
That dick in the interview is wearing more money in clothing then most make in three months these days, easy for him to say they all agree. Easy for him to say well that would screw up the deal and that would not be right as we need to basically look at the big picture, cry me a river please.