IMF Warns Developed World May Fall Back Into Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

The IMF has released the report it prepared for last week's futile G-20 session, which incidentally saw the IMF being shut out of bailing out the Eurozone: a development which was adverse at the time but now is largely irrelevant: after all Greece has a new parliament, if still no ink to print tax forms. So what did the IMF say? Here are some key soundbites.

On the future:

  • Recovery remains in low gear in major advanced economies with elevated risk of falling back into recession. Policy paralysis and incoherence have contributed to exacerbating uncertainty, a loss of confidence, and heightened financial market stress—all of which are inimical to demand rebalancing and global growth prospects.
  • Thus, understanding large imbalances within and across countries has taken on renewed importance. Policy makers need to move with a greater sense of urgency on reaching an agreement on policies that will reduce imbalances and lay the foundation for restoring the global economy to health.

On the past i.e., "one-time", "non-recurring" central bank interventions:

  • Monetary accommodation has been crucial for alleviating the financial crisis and recession. Economies hardest hit by the crisis—the major advanced G-20 economies—have kept policy rates exceptionally, but appropriately, low. Headline inflation in these economies rose earlier in the year because of commodity prices (and, in the notable case of the United Kingdom, because of consumption tax increases), but underlying inflation remains subdued in environments of weak demand and high unemployment. The recent moderation in energy and food  prices will further dampen inflationary pressures. The European Central Bank has raised policy rates (but they remain at low levels), and  monetary policy rates remain close to the zero bound in the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan. Should downside risks materialize,  further easing would be warranted.

Well, maybe not so much "one-time"... maybe "constant" and "global" is better:

  • The major advanced economies have also used unconventional monetary policy measures to stimulate the economy. In the United States, the second round of quantitative easing measures was completed as scheduled in June. The Bank of Japan introduced a new asset  purchase program that covered private securities, in addition to government securities. The ECB has extended the full allotment regime of  its refinancing operations until at least October 2011 and reinstated its supplementary refinancing operations, and has resumed buying euro area government bonds and extending credit through its securities market program. In the United Kingdom, the stock of bond purchases has remained unchanged since early 2010.

On China FX bashing:

  • Some progress has been made toward greater exchange rate flexibility, but key surplus economies continue to intervene to limit appreciation. Exchange rate adjustment is critical for global rebalancing and sustaining strong growth. Most G-20 members have floating exchange rate regimes with minimal interventions. Some members have made good progress toward exchange rate flexibility with fewer interventions (e.g., India), but in other cases, progress has been limited (e.g., China).

And so on.

IMF G-20

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

Time to short WTI I guess.

CPL's picture

It'll shave a couple of bucks.  Worth the short at $100, that's when everyones credit runs out again.



Nice thing about oil it's a great way to perform capital destruction and destroy credit for little in return

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I certainly share the IMF's concern. This economic recovery remains decidedly sluggish, and we cannot rule out the risk of a double dip recession. On the bright side, G20 leaders and central bankers are aware of the risk and are working on it, but I would urge them to be cautious.

CPL's picture

Who seriously gives a shit what the puppet show says anymore? 

Shut up and place your bets.  Keep the Stops tight and don't touch margin.  Follow that and you might live up to that ridiculious handle.

dlmaniac's picture

How to fall back into sth you have never really got out of?

I am more equal than others's picture

News flash..................  we never got out of the last recession.  Their metrics are bundled lies and distortions with the intent of igniting the 'animal spirits' - read lemmings are to be lemming - that never happened because there never was a debt clearing for the masses.  No one is forgiving or paying off the local lemmings mortgage and car note off.  Being in the lemming class myself, I wait patiently by the phone with hope waiting for change I was promised. 

moondog's picture

God I love MDB, a troll with subtle sarcasm. Everyone visit and see how seriously fucked we are.

Odin's picture

Yes, that or a hired goon... or just a genuine idiot... or a troll who knows exactly how to irratate the serious members of this site (which I guess is what you said)...

Odin's picture

next time he comments we should all immediately agree with him and vote him up... maybe it will scare him  away...

Flakmeister's picture

Check the archives..... As I have repeatedely said start putting your shorts on when Brent hits $120...

CPL's picture

Brent will hit 120 not yet though.


WTI will hit $100 first and that cripples practically most of Asia and North America.  The speculators then will push the margin credit factory in Brent to $120.


Russell is showing some amazing bear charts right now.


So TZA and WTI (short) coming up.  TZA entry under 29, leveraged decay spread is now 28.54 - 465.45 in the range from top to bottom.

Flakmeister's picture

WTI price means nothing except to some mid-continent refiners and their crack spreads....


sschu's picture

WTI was below $80 for a while and seemed "pegged" to the dollar/euro.  Now, not so much, and the WTI is over $98.  Bad news.

With oil consistently over $80, the chance for any meaningful recover is very small.  This is the moral hazard which Bennie with all his free bucks has handed us.  They made a decision that the US and the world would not tolerate a 1930s deflationary depression, so print, extend and pretend was the answer.  The best case is we are stuck with stagnation/stagflation for a long time and maybe collapse if we are unlucky.  Look at Japan over the last 20 years and this is about all we can expect.

Thanks so much central planners.


vast-dom's picture

What they meant to state was DEPRESSION. 

Undecided's picture

The way the title should read, we the IMF have failed and depression is imminent.

thadoctrizin's picture

I'm pretty sure it goes  recession---> depression ---> desperation ---> chaos

Considering we are have solid footing in desperation, I think "being in danger of heading back into recession" is a bit of an understatement.

TheRegulator's picture

I was going to post my own reply, but I think you covered it perfectly. Welcome to reality, bitchez....

sabra1's picture

the IMF, the soon to be in hell oldidorks collection agency!

IMF prints the other reserve currency, the SDR!

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Last I recall, these magical measures passed by the Italian Senate were complete worthless.  Something about increasing the retirement age by a couple of years not to occur until 2026?

ultraticum's picture

"Further easing would be warranted."  =  "Man the presses.  We IMFers will save the banks - ehem the people - krauts be damned!"

SheepDog-One's picture

'Further printing warranted' what on earth for? Markets up 2%-3% daily no problem at all. 

Syrin's picture

Oh silly IMF !!  To enter a recession, we would have to exit the depression, and that's just not going to happen.

Steak's picture

something to help keep your Friday from falling into recession

Inspirations (a tracklist):


William113's picture

So they are saying we are coming out of the Depression. Because a recession is better.

Oh the Glory Days are here again.

TheSto's picture

"IAEA detects higher than usual levels of iodine 131 over Europe."

Racer's picture

And on that the Dow soars...

valley chick's picture

what rumor did I miss ? 

RobotTrader's picture

Feels a lot like the "Green Shoots" rally of 2009.

Bears keep fighting it and are getting blown out.

Long-John-Silver's picture

How can we have a second dip recession while we are still in a depression?

baby_BLYTHE's picture

a 'double-dip' recession= depression

Caviar Emptor's picture

Depression without reckless money printing = 1930s

Depression with reckless money printing = Now


1930s: After 4 years GDP grew at 10.4%, then 8.9% then 13% 

Now: Instead we'll be stuck in biflation/stagflation

Flakmeister's picture

Don't forget, no shortage of cheap oil... In fact there was more oil than people knew what to do with in Texas...

Cpl Hicks's picture

Policy paralysis and incoherence have contributed to exacerbating uncertainty.

We get weekly examples of that lack of leadership out of Barry the Big 0. His latest was to kick the can on the Keystone pipeline deal out past next years election. So the better part of 20 to 25k jobs don't get added to the US economy.  Some would have been Canadian jobs, but those are good for NAFTA, right?

Why, you might ask? Good question. Maybe he doesn't want to disappoint his base. You know, the Green energy job good, fossil fuel jobs bad crowd. Maybe, as some have darkly suggested on this website, he really wants to destroy this country. You make the call.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

No no no.  We are in a depression but with a morphine drip (massive deficit spending with record low interest rates) so it only feels like a recession.


Once either the deficit spending is cut back or interest rates wake up it is happy buy buy buy bot time.

LooseLee's picture

That wonderful barometer that is the U.S. equity market vehemently disagrees. Today they are pricing in 5% GDP growth in the USSA. And as we all know, the all-knowing 'free market' is a forward-looking mechanism that discounts all known and unknown possibilities. Party on, fools!

RobotTrader's picture

I repeat.

Where is the recession?

With names like SBUX on a boner run from $15 to $45 with no selloff whatsoever?

Instead of Gerald Celente's prediction of people "losing it".....

They are piling into AAPL stores and sipping $5.00 coffee at Starbucks enjoying life.

blindman's picture

here is the recession. what is receding?
watch closely and you will see it.
WikiLeaks releases secret video of journalists, civilians killed in Baghdad
Posted on November 11, 2011 by maxkeiser

TheMerryPrankster's picture

And thats why 45 million Americans can't even afford food and so are in the food stamps program? 1/3 of all mortgages is underwater and record foreclosures continue for the 4th year in a row.

Cherry picking anomalous data points results in illusory models. A ship sinks an inch at a time, just because parts are still above water doesn't mean things are going swimmingly.

Even during the starvation that caused the French Revolution, the ruling class led a pampered life of luxury. When Queen Marie Antoinette was informed the peasants were starving and had no bread, she famously quiped "Then let them eat cake!"

Your data set is too small to reflect reality, you are enjoying an illusion that your resources allow you to pretend is reality.

SheepDog-One's picture

One HALF of all mortgages now underwater in the US.

TheMerryPrankster's picture

Thanks for the correction, sorry for the error, which begs the question at 50% - Is the mortgage equity glass half full or half empty?

TheRegulator's picture

Wake up, pull your head out of your ass, stop wasting server space....Around here, the mall where the Apple store was supposed to go was never completed and all but one of the Starbucks closed...due to poor sales. Go figure...

Fucking loser troll...

blindman's picture

it is a monetary system problem not an
economic problem. recession has nothing
to do with it. imf = fuckshite wanker bankers.
financial terrorists !
steve keen ...
Steve Keen on Capital Account: Economic Progress one Funeral at a Time?
Posted on November 11, 2011 by stacyherbert|
Capital Account with Lauren Lyster (11/10/11)
WikiLeaks releases secret video of journalists, civilians killed in Baghdad
terrorist activity here. imf banker sponsored.

jmcadg's picture

Really RT. Is that in Athens or Rome?

blindman's picture

@" .. is that in.."
no bunga bunga.

Zero Govt's picture

"IMF Warns Developed World May Fall Back Into Recession"

No Shit Batman

Out here in the real world nobody thought we'd climbed out of recession in order for the goons at the IMF to declare we "may" fall back in!

But then when you're an unelected crone whose wages have not changed since 2007 hit looking out of those ivory towers gives a different perspective 

slewie the pi-rat's picture

we have been warned, BiCheZ!

blindman's picture
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Tim Rifat : The Rothschild own the World except 3 countries
Tim Rifat on Jeff Rense Show November 9th 2011

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

So who does this sack of shit IMF represent...?

Not me.

Where do they get their money...?

Yup,me...(and you)

Did the public vote them in...?


Me niether.

Kinda pisses you off ,huh.

Kinda like the CFR...(Council on Foriegn Relations)

They basically have the major say of what goes on in the USA (and globally)

Did I elect any ane of them...?


Do they represent me...?


Does their influence (read power) affect my life...?


So to make a long story short.....

FUCK the IMF......

and FUCK the CFR.

And if you don't know what the CFR is,the sleazy mother fuckers,you should take the time to learn.

Thanks all.

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hey MillionDlollarCumSwallower.

Take a fucking hike,you fucking Rothschilds dick licker,