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Of Imminent Defaults And Self Deception. Kyle Bass Prepares For The Worst

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In his latest letter to LPs, Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, offers his tell-tale clarity on what may lie ahead for Europe and Japan. With his over-arching thesis of debt saturation becoming more plain to see around every corner, Bass bundles the simple (and somewhat unarguable) facts of quantitative analysis with a qualitative perspective on the cruel self-deception that we all see and read every day about Europe.

Whether it is Kahneman's "availability heuristic" (wherein participants assess the probability of an event based on whether relevant examples are cognitively "available"), the Pavlovian pro-cyclicality of thought, or the extraordinary delusions of groupthink, investors in today's sovereign debt markets can't seem to envision the consequences of a default.

His Japanese scenario is no less convicted, as we have discussed a number of times, with the accelerant of this debt-bomb being the very-same European debacle and his time-frame for this is set to begin in the next few months.

Hayman_Nov2011

(h/t The Fly)

 


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Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

bullish cruel self-deception

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Bass is an amazing technical writer and games master.

 

For those that didn't read the article;  As debt increases the frequency of the bailouts increases like a snow ball rolling down hill and we are almost at the bottom of the hill.

 

Does not mean go out and purchase FAZ or whichever fabricated leveraged derivative device you use.  It means wait for the opportunity to buy it.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

The bigger we can make the debt bubble bomb for maximum effect before it explodes the better. I say print another hundred trillion.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Is anyone else unable to read the piece, as it looks like Greek/Giberish?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:20 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

what piece?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 04:32 | Link to Comment sqz
sqz's picture

"One more dollar worth of global credit market debt produces almost no additional utility via GDP growth."

Pretty much says it all. Kyle Bass certainly has a way with communicating.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:07 | Link to Comment Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

One of the reasons Bass is so impressive is that his presentations combine sharp perception with historical insight and clear rhetoric.  In this case, he utilizes (appropriately, to be sure) the old adage of "the law of diminishing returns".

 

Decades ago, Albert J Nock noted that three "laws" accounted for nearly all social phenomena.  They were:

 

1) The law of diminishing returns.

2) Gresham's law (generalized): Bad money drives out good.  Bad anything drives out good.  Think "white flight" as a possible instance of this law.

3) "Epstean's" law: people tend to follow the path of least resistance in satisfying perceived wants and needs.

 

To be sure, such laws identify tendencies, and are therefore not "absolute" for all individual cases.  But social phenomena deal with the overall tendencies at work, and with this in mind, Nock seems to have nailed it. 

 

Nock would have loved the Cicero quote.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:45 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

didn't you get the memo?  you're supposed to use your lucky charms decoder ring!!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:17 | Link to Comment beaker
Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:22 | Link to Comment percolator
percolator's picture

I got the same problem.  I'm using Firefox 8.0.1 and you?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:23 | Link to Comment DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

Greek/gibberish - have you set your print size to 'actual'?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:24 | Link to Comment percolator
percolator's picture

Just tried Safari and now I can read it.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:10 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

The world doesn't need any more growth, it just needs maintenance.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:37 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Sometimes an idea pops into my head and it happens within the next few days. Let me just post it and see what happens.

There will be a few old fucks in congress who will die of old age pretty soon while still in office. I pray a lot of old congress critter fucks die soon. That's one way to to get rid of them.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:02 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

It is written at another level but totally comprehensible in it's direction.  And that is all that is needed.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:03 | Link to Comment Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

After 3 shots of potato vodka it cleared up...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Viewing Scribd can be challenging. I, too, found the viewing difficult using Firefox 8, both in the embedded document in the ZH post and using the link http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/74335711. Curious, I switched to Internet Explorer 8 and had a slightly different problem.

Long story short, the solution lay in changing the encoding option. In IE I switched (View -> Encoding) from Unicode (UTF-8) to Western European (ISO).  The text was perfectly readable. For the technically astute - the Geek in my name was earned the hard way - there are many ways of encoding text for transmission. Think of it as variations on an alphabet, or differences in font styles. Browsers aren't always able to automatically choose the correct one, and sometimes a human has to correct the situation.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 07:37 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I know You said this in Jest....but when its all over...I bet 100 Trillion is not to far off

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:54 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Fiat snow ball Bitchez!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:08 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Does not mean go out and purchase FAZ or whichever fabricated leveraged derivative device you use. It means wait for the opportunity to buy it.

I have great respect for those who consume this info and have the capacity to understand it.

Have you ever seen a cat in the field stalking her prey. At some point in time she hunkers down, her tail whipping back and forth. Low to the ground. Anticipating. Instincts piqued, bleeding.

Wait for it.

Thank you CPL.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:27 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Yet you're waiting to buy gold til it doubles in price again?

...either way. Look at the 1 month on FAZ. If it prints sub-$40 I'm a buyer. They'll most definitely bail each other out in their fiat debt-circle jerk a few more times and that might throw another 400-500+ points on the DOW and send FAZ down another 10% but in this environment I call that a discount. If you like FAZ at $45 then you definitely like it at $25... in this environment IMHO.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 04:59 | Link to Comment Raskolnikoff
Raskolnikoff's picture

those things are death traps, someone should go to jail for the creation of these funds alone. saying this as a former investor of SRS and FAS...have made a few bucks shorting SDS & TZA this week as a small hedge against some short positions, wish I could short UNG...but, one lucky day...this strategy won't work, I do believe the doomsayers

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 07:40 | Link to Comment ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

I started messing with FAZ this August, was up almost 40% in October, then down 17% in early November, then up 30% until last Friday and down 12% after the last 2 days. FAZ is like my ex-girlfriend, she gave me the best and worst time of my life.

I think the central banks wil not allow Europe to implode, dragging down the world economy. What they did yesterday is indicative of where we are heading. I think the course is set for an inflationary explosion rather than an deflationary implosion. I no longer expect the S&P will be in the sub 1,000 territory.

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

You just got your 40 print, geek girl.  Hope you like it.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:04 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Exponential growth like that seen in the graphs is always a reason to quetion what is going on.  In reference to debt it cannot be a good thing.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Carlyle gruopie,

you made a good point about peter schiff.anyone who doubts 911 is not credible in my eyes.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:31 | Link to Comment Sunset chaser
Sunset chaser's picture

Other key points for those not reading the full article.

"We are reaching the point at which the amount of funds required to continue delaying the inevitable is simply becoming too large. As more countries require aid and are thus unable to provide aid, the burden on the remaining contributing nations grows."

"Money printing will only start after hard sovereign defaults (are allowed to happen) as printing beforehand without addressing the toxic debt problem would rewind the clocks back to the days of Von Havenstein and then you-know-who."

The second paragraph seems to be particularly worthy of respectful consideration because, as we all know, Germany holds most of the European cards, and would presumably be hypersensitive to the possibility of recapitulating Weimar and WWII via the printing press.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 07:46 | Link to Comment ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

I thought money printing will start after hard sovereign defaults until yesterday. I think the central banks have a death wish of returning to the days of Von Havenstein. I think I am going to stop messing with FAZ and TZA and start buying gold and silver.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 05:54 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Excuse the dumb question.

 

What's FAZ?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 07:59 | Link to Comment ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

Direxion Financial Bear 3X 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:31 | Link to Comment 1000pips
1000pips's picture

K Bass, must own a piece of ZH; always using his script on this site.  

The problem is-HE IS WRONG !  In a perfect world he might be correct, but the one element he does not discuss is corruption of the global 1% to keep this scam game called the stock market, the currency market and the bond markets forever in play.  Japan-one of the most ruthless cultures of all time; China-complete criminal state; Russia-complete organized crime 'gov't'; USA-biggest imperialistic organization ever to roam and steal the natural resourses of this planet.  
These are not 'Nations'; they are all criminal enterprises.  There are no rules, math does not apply except to confuse the honest.  K Bass is a good writer and speaker, yet only with theory, not in real world commerce and usuary.  

Do you not realize that the markets are only a series of 'Ups' and 'Downs'; there will never be an 'End Game'.  

Why? Because, the markets steal and trick the 'suckers' out of their money through fear and hope.  Over and over and over and over.  

How much money have you really made since 2008 shorting the market?  Not much if any, if your a full time trader you know the real money is made on the Long.  

K Bass just bought 20,000,000 US Nickles because he says they are worth 6.34 cents, but you can't melt them down (against the law also) and process them for that amount (6.34 cents), so who will he sell them to for a profit of 20%? Nobody, that's who.  Because if this method produced profit, there would be NO Nickles in circulation the minute it was possible to make 20% off of them!!!  Right?!

If you do not have inside information, the markets are going to beat you until you are busted, or so paranoid you become anti-social and hoard PM's beside your guns and ammo...don't listen to anyone who makes their market information public for free, especially if they say what you agree with.  

The world is never going to end, it never has, it only evolves new methods to steal from the suckers (99%ers).  

The game is rigged guys, just thought you needed to know.  That my friends is a true 'Flat Refusal'.     

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:39 | Link to Comment VyseLegendaire
VyseLegendaire's picture

The world has ended before, stop telling yourself these feel good normalcy bias tales. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:53 | Link to Comment 1000pips
1000pips's picture

Really?  When did the world 'end'?  We know it began 4.5 Billion years ago approx.  Yet, we have yet to record when the World has ended?  Please enlighten us with this secret you speak of...oh, that's right, you cannot.  So, instead of blindly assuring yourself that you know the 'inside track', open your mind up to the truth and save yourself alot of money, if you have any left...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:34 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

When the Visigoths finally started to come across the Rhine in the north, they didn't even have to fight.  They just had to walk.  They didn't fight an actual battle for weeks, and then against some starving remnant of a legion that crumbled in an hour.  More than half of the troops probably just defected, being Germanic themselves, and starving.

Every denarius the troops were paid with by that time was copper dipped in silver.  Nobody took them seriously but Septimus and the Senate.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:58 | Link to Comment LMAO
LMAO's picture

@Pips

I'm trying very hard to grasp what you are saying here:

"K Bass just bought 20,000,000 US Nickles because he says they are worth 6.34 cents, but you can't melt them down (against the law also) and process them for that amount (6.34 cents), so who will he sell them to for a profit of 20%? Nobody, that's who."

I've heard about people buying Gold American $ 50 denominated Eagles for as much as $ 1800 - $ 1900. There are even people buying Silver Dollars for $ 40.

According to your thesis these people are idiots.

And you were saying......

but you can't melt them down (against the law also) and process them for that amount

so who will he sell them to for a profit of 20%......

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 07:31 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

Here's the problem with Kyle's nickel plan-

He can't melt down those nickels for free.

Factor in the cost to smelt those nickels, let's see what his real profit will be.

Oh- and then factor in what it cost him to store them.

Whoops.

Looked better on paper.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:27 | Link to Comment LMAO
LMAO's picture

Technically Kyle is not allowed to melt down these nickels because he would be destroying legal tender (at least for the time being). Somehow I think he knows this. The same "problem" applies to those who are holding Gold and Silver Eagles.

The argument was made by Pips that atm there is no 20% profit in selling this and maybe even suggesting that there is never going to be a market for these nickels.

It kinda makes you wonder why people would buy Silver and Gold Legal tender ($1 and $50 coins) at prices vastly exceeding their nominal value.

I can't truly say that Pips thesis is supported by reality and I don't think it's a far stretch at all to imagine when Weimar hits the system and a coffee costs $100 in worthless printed fiatscos Kyle might very well be able to buy his coffee with 5 pre-Weimar nickels, by then no longer used as legal tender because of its' nominal value but dare I say it, intrinsic value.

I think storage fees is the least of his problems, he probably has them on skids in a shed on his ranch.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:00 | Link to Comment donis
donis's picture

rome, alexadria, ussr......   the world as people know it is constanly ending.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:40 | Link to Comment Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

You may be missing the point, Pips. Bass says the numbers involved are too big for the ponzi, that guarantors are bust-outs, that rescuers are puny in size and strength. Now, maybe the fed can pony up $18Trn to float the Euro periphery, but what are the implications of that?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:47 | Link to Comment 1000pips
1000pips's picture

Your point is with merit.  

 

Yet, in a derivative macro environment, liquidity can literally be created out of thin air (FED RESERVE).  

So $18T is easily possible, immediately.  

That is really what happened today, it was announced that NOTHING is going to destroy the Euro.  

Again, the game is rigged, it is a huge Bear trap this time, last time it was a Bull trap (2008).  

Over and over and over--the scam will never end, and the world has never ended before, except for the 99%er's.  The 1% are never broken. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:20 | Link to Comment buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

I think you have the right analysis, but wrong ultimate conclusion.

I think you can make the argument that these people don't know what the hell they are doing, and are forced to make up much of this as they go along. Would it not have been better to bring all of this in slowly, if they can adjust things as you say? They do great when things are rolling along relatively smoothly. They do better picking up the pieces after collapse, but you'd think they'd want to milk us for all we're worth before pushing us off the milking table. Now we're pretty much milked out, much of the private equity is out of the market, and it's getting too costly to food, clothe, and medicate all of the dependents.The latter requires real resources to be dug up and fashioned into things of real value. That's the rub, in the end. You can print all you want, but it doesn't produce any more yield of real necessities at some point. And competing interests produce many of those necessities.

So either they are incompetent and this mess is not what they intended, or this is all planned. If the latter, that's certainly much scarier. It means that we'll likely be left hanging until things are so bad that people erupt, or the population is begging and totally controllable. Either outcome is a disaster and the end of the world, at least as we've known it.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 04:04 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1000, 1000pips

I like your little reminder that the world is not going to end

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:22 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

"The world will never end" is one of a class of statements that the speaker never has to apologize for.  Similar to, and as clever as "I will never die."

Do you think that ZHers believe that the Earth is about to split in two?

Maybe "paradigm shift" would be easier to understand than "world ending."  But the latter phrase is more accurate, in that it better prepares you emotionally for the magnitude of the event.

 

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:07 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

sure - what I sometimes wonder is how many people appreciate the fact that we had subtle paradigm shifts every decade since the 1780's.

The US has been somewhat insulated from some of the last, though. I just wonder if ZH is not part of this awareness.

I lived and worked in Italy during a time where it was not that clear cut if the communists would not win a general election, for example.

Or traveled quite a lot (for business) in the ex-sovjet satellites after the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Makes me both more cynic and optimistic.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Except the next paradigm shift will be a global contraction coupled with shortages.  100pips needs to watch that Chris Martenson vid again.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 04:22 | Link to Comment pelagivore
pelagivore's picture

Pips, I do subscribe to your view in the sense that the status quo economic system will be forced to be sustained; in fact it may take some extraneous factor to push meaningful and necessary change (war, environmental shock, disease, etc).. at this point I just look at Japan since the late 80's, their unwillingness to address fundamental imbalances has meant a lost generation, which is what the rest of the world faces. Like you I have no confidence in the 1%; and as we see currently, the populace has no stomach to force change... they sit at home. 

I like Hugh Hendry's view of the world... that paradox is a key investment theme going forward. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:26 | Link to Comment dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

1000pips,

the process whereby currency which is officially undervalued and disappears from circulation has occurred repeatedly in monetary history, so often in fact that it has a name. Gresham's Law. also the process whereby TPTB miscalculate and loose control of everything has happened just about as often. read up, sir

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 05:15 | Link to Comment 1000pips
1000pips's picture

Perhaps your education may have examined 'Thiers Law' also, 'Dr.'.  Which is, as I recall is the reverse of Gresham's Law.  The fact is, that people will be driven to except the currency they believe the most redemable and stable (USD).  

It is (as of the Fed announcement yesterday), the USD which will back the Euro, therefore insuring Europe's currency survives and even inflates in value.  

Perhaps you, sir, may want ot 'read up', before you stake your IQ on a mis-statement of what Gresham's Law actually is, "that good and bad coin cannot circulate together"; but 2 bad coins can circulate together endlessly--as we see today.  Hence it is all a scam...

view the Tiger Lillies

http://youtu.be/5U319VzSqEU

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:32 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

And Weimar Germany is alive and well, the Soviet Union never fell, and your social security check is in the mail.

A complex system cannot be controlled centrally, it can only be gradually ruined -- and the ruination gaining exponentially. 

You can tell how close to the end we are by how many bailouts and grand rescues are announced each week, by how many desperate people on TV and on the internet proclaim that All is Well and Our System Is Eternal, and by how viciously they attack the prophets of doom.

Saying "this game will never end" is mouthing a meaningless prayer in an evil religion.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:14 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

but only because a system as a whole is not sustainable it does not mean that parts of it won't survive...

Germany and Russia are quite good examples for this, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina come to mind

lots of parts. If you devalue your currency by half, for example, all your debts are halved. Do it enough and suddently, voilà! Ze Problem iz Zolved. So that we can go on as before! Straight from the new book: "Dreams of Mr. Bernanke".

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

"And Weimar Germany is alive and well, the Soviet Union never fell"

If there was a concerted effort by all global participants both may be alive and well today as we speak.

But both entities were targets and both were assassinated.

Had the White Shoe Boys seen value in sustaining their existence, they would be here today.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 05:36 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It's funny that you say these big guys are the ultimate criminals and then worry about the law when it comes to melting nickles.  Incidentally, that is a US law.

 

Also, try to buy a pre-1964 quarter on ebay.  Nobody is paying more than $.25 for those right?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:58 | Link to Comment donis
donis's picture

who's hording guns....  im not hording any guns or gold. god bless the usa.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 13:50 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

Pips, K Bass is not saying the world will end.  Nor are most of the sane ZHers.  What he is saying is economic depression and massive dollar devaluation.

Yes, the central banks can and will print.  They will save the banks that way.  But fiat currencies in the cross hairs will be ravaged.  Our savings, our pensions -- largely gone.  Unless we can protect them somehow.  Gold/silver???  Nickels???   We don't know what will protect our wealth because we can't predict what the banksters/politicians will do.  But we know our currences will be seriously devalued.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:11 | Link to Comment Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

Kyle Bass makes me believe in truth again. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:30 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

oddly enough though, he sees europe and japan imploding, but not the united states. I can only scratch my head.....

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:46 | Link to Comment SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

He does think the us will crash, but his money is on Japan blowing up first. It's a domino thing, and we're the grand finale. Get the popcorn...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"I've been out in the world, getting buttfucked by Fortune."

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:49 | Link to Comment vato poco
vato poco's picture

Nice quote. Is that Dan Jenkins?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:26 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Neal Stephenson "Cryptonomicon". It's a quote from Sgt. Bobby Shaftoe when MacArthur asks where he has been.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 16:42 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Bobby was a bad ass indeed.  I recommend this book .

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

*Reserve currency

(for now)

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:39 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

There is only one currencie, and it is set to fail.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:17 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

He has not said that. He has said the US can print money but the US is not safe.  A lot of these bailouts are to bailout govt union workers which is where most of the TARP money went.  The refuse to cut spending there or here.  Harry Reid in the Senate still does not have a budget 1,000 days after one should have been presented.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you like just sit around and make shit up because you like the way it sounds??  Most of TARP was used to Bailout gubbmint workers????

You said that you don't watch TV or listen to the Clown and/or the Gasbag.... where do you get these ideas from? Are you picking up NPR from an alternate universe??

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:32 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

ah sh*t  thought this was schiff's post. damn

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:01 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

A vain Emperor who cares for nothing but his appearance and attire hires two tailors who are really swindlers that promise him the finest suit of clothes from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position or "just hopelessly stupid". The Emperor cannot see the cloth himself, but pretends that he can for fear of appearing unfit for his position; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they mime dressing him and the Emperor then marches in procession before his subjects, who play along with the pretense. Suddenly, a child in the crowd, too young to understand the desirability of keeping up the pretense, blurts out that the Emperor is wearing nothing at all and the cry is taken up by others. The Emperor cringes, suspecting the assertion is true, but holds himself up proudly and continues the procession, deciding never to be so vain again and to take his position more seriously.

Kyle Bass once again tells the world "the Emperor has no clothes", and life imitates art.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

With the state of the world financial system I just wanted to say that NASA sending a $2.5 billion remote controlled car to Mars was a bit...frivolous

Humanity needs to get it's priorities in order.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

So you would have us what? Sit in a cold dark cave and wait for the end? Or spend even more on military that can't be used without spending even more? I wouldn't want to live in your dumbed down stone age world!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:46 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Strawman, much?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:40 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That's ad hom.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:38 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

What a stupid argument. As if the only other possibility is the other extreme. Balance my man.

Balance.

ORI

/the-plan/

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:39 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Balance? Not in the US. During the 50s through early 80s many people drove while so drunk they were seeing double. Few got drunk driving tickets.

Now the drunk driving laws are so draconian that a single beer before driving will cause one to 'test over the limit' for drunkeness.

Where is the balance? More like a pendelum that swings from one extreme to the other.

Before the latest crack down on drunken driving we had 'prohibition', where selling alcohol for consumption was illegal. How well did that work out?

Before anyone asks... I have never had a DUI arrest or conviction... but I could have.

BTW, has anyone considered that forcing the population to give up (or cut back on) alcohol might be a contributing factor to recessions/depressions?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I believe the US should stop playing world police and baby sitter for the corrupt shithole state israel and spend the money on space exploration and related technology.

AND as we develop it we have to be sure to secure it so those thieves in Tel Aviv don't steal it and make some more false claims about their superiority.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:25 | Link to Comment buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Are Herrnstein and Murray wrong? (I get that superiority isn't based solely on raw cognitive power)

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

How about just not spend money you don't have?  Too difficult to comprehend?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:54 | Link to Comment BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Apparently for governments, the answer is "yes".
Fot the rest of us, thrift is a very doable operation as we prepare for the hunkering down part of history.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Don't worry 'bout Mr. Dabolina Mr. Bob Dabolina; he's too goddamned ignorant to understand that spending on science
was causally connected to him being able to type his idiotic post in the first place.

Most likely revolves around some moronic notion about ideas coming from fucking CEOs.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:33 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

yes! yes! a wafer thin mint for Monsieur Creosote!

 

it is the spending on probes of Uranus that will send us to living in dark caves.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 05:42 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I thought the space men came to Earth to probe Ur anus.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Or did they?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:43 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

Funny how we beg the Russians for a ride to the space station. We are now spending less then the Chinese! So you want to be the country of hamburger flippers to the rich? Wow, not the forward thinking ZH of old. Sad when Cock Brother tools think learning is a bad thing. We wouldn't want our country to be inventive would we? Would you like fries with that?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:57 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Moron Dem.  NASA is a govt works program now.  It was great when the Germans ran it.   Bert Rutan is doing more than NASA and he always say NASA is a joke.  Your muslim boy told NASA it's biggest priority is outreach to Islamic countries and faux global warming.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:27 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

without space, how would we know where tf we are?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:27 | Link to Comment buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

I laughed out loud and I don't know why

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:52 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Good one slewie... Without space we would have an entirely different set of 'scientific texts' explaining in minute detail the can of sardines surrounding us...and, why that can is not infinite in size.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

...but if it is not infinite in size it can be kicked.

Bullish!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:27 | Link to Comment el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

That is total crap.  The two rovers were an incredible technical success with fabulous scientific discoveries about Mars.  Whether a bankrupt soon-to-be ex imperial power can afford it is another story.  But don't badmouth the NASA recent achievements.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:38 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Go watch your Star trek reruns.  NASA Is just another pig at the trough.  It was pretty good when the Germans ran it but we were not bankrupt then.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I guess Hubble, COBE, WMAP, Chandra and AMS were wasted endevors...

Do you ever leave the basement? Have you ever been to a museum?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:25 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Yes they were.  America is a bankrupt nation but you want to keep spending on useless shit.

Is ZH attracting NASA "workers" taking a break from surfing porn at The "Johnson" Control Center?   Gold brickers.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Look up the term Boetian and get back to me.... It looks like we wasted a few bucks on your education..

Hell, I bet we could get good money for the redwoods if we turned them into chopsticks, maybe we could pay for it with that....

Are you familar with the history of the Internet and WWW?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

In defense of NASA, I do think it's the best government program money can buy. Can you think of any government program which has contributed more to society? I can't.

However, I agree that private enterprise is the future of space exploration (and it should be).

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:33 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Is it worse to waste the money on NASA or GS, BAC, and JPM?  At least NASA provides jobs.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:38 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yeah, and they came up with that great pen that writes upside-down.   I'm in that position all the time, so it comes in handy.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:50 | Link to Comment Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Nice one.  But man's destiny - and deepest desires - require him to explore space.  It's hard-wired in our DNA.  Anything NASA does to further this is a good thing.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:10 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Not if you're broke.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 02:31 | Link to Comment Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

No no no, this is how we meet those aliens Krugman was talking about see?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

The Russians solved that same problem with a pencil, perhaps we are entering the time when our solutions should start looking like pencils instead of pressurized stainless steel pens..

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Good job.  Simple is good.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Let's cut the the crap, this is a normative ethical argument and it happens to be very simple. One side maintains that the end justifies the means (teleology), the other, that the means must must be justified apart from the end (deontology).

Either publicly funding a government agency is okay or it isn't. What that agency does, as well as whether or not NASA actually spends any public funds on bona fide space exploration, is only material to the argument if you maintain that the end justifies the means, for funding is only ever a means to an end.

Some of you think NASA's end justifies its means (public funding), some of you don't think so.

This can be simplified to "I believe public funding is morally acceptable (in one, some, or all cases - it is irrelevant)" or "I believe public funding is morally unacceptable (in any case)". This is not a false dichotomy, some may believe that public funding is acceptable in some cases but not others, the first statement encompasses this; others may believe that the ends of public funding never justify the means, the second statement encompasses this; and so on, this list is not exhaustive.

I strongly doubt that any of you oppose space exploration in se, which makes this argument over NASA's actions, not its funding, sophomoric and specious.

And just so I don't appear to be a complete ass feigning Stoic dispassionate disinterest: I believe that while public funding is never morally acceptable, because it implies actions which are malum in se, if it is occurring, using those funds for NASA, as opposed to any other federal agency, is the least immoral choice. Yes, an argument with something for everyone to hate.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:58 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

NOAA does a pretty good job.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:27 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Noaa is another lying sack of bullshit. At least with nasa we got tang drink.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ohh... thats good... Could you explain why and what they are lying about??

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You see that thing you're typing on?

QED.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:20 | Link to Comment criticaster
criticaster's picture

Actually the modern digital computer was Turing, von Neumann and World war II.

The web was Tim Berners-Lee at CERN.

But the sentiment is the same.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

Burt Rutan is a genius. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Or maybe just a regular guy committed to a dream.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

Ja NASA, kudos for tecnological achievements but  for most part a bureaucratic cluster of groupthink lemmings wasting billions attempting such projects as validating the hallucinatory physics of Einstein and his intellectual heirs (i.e. space/time continuum, black holes, dark matter, big bang etc,). Our great individual thinkers cannot get the funds or equipment to do their research in the USA. Consider the predicament of America's Galileo Halton Arp who had to go to the Max Planck Institute in Germany because his thinking went against the party line. Transfer NASA control from Houston to Munich for the good of humanity.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Wow you make one fake moon landing joke and people get frothy.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:13 | Link to Comment dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

most arrogant and child killing americans just don't understand.  They believe that we must be first and must destroy anyone in our way, or against our way.

The only successful and fruitful space program will be a global effort among all nations with access to all information by the public.

Otherwise, its a foolish race and a waste of time and money.

As you know, you get nothing in return for the trillions spent on space programs because the real data is hidden from you just as if you were the "enemy".

So...what has the space program done for you? for humanity?  How about....not a goddamn thing except some pictures and more secrecy.

Privatize it!  I'm tired of having my tax dollars being spent by people I do not know or trust.

 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:56 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

2,5B for an interplanetary space mission? Oh noeees! Ben had to skip one lunch!!!!!!

Granted, this has nothing to do at all, with if that NASA mission made sense or not.... but neither did your post have anything to do with that. All it was, was a really lameass appeal to a lousy 2,5B being significant for the multi-TRILLION debt timebomb and wrecked economy (not to be mistaken for "the market (tm)" - that's something entirely different).

I mean, seriously..... slow troll day?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:02 | Link to Comment mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I don't know why, but "oh, noes" is one of the best memes of all time...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:58 | Link to Comment The Man in Room Five
The Man in Room Five's picture

The US spent $11.4 billion on F-35's this year. I agree, humanity needs to get its priorities straight.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:06 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The military spent a few billion on air conditioning, didn't they? What has it been, $35 billion to date on ethanol subsidies??

Yep, all about priorities....

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

Spending on ethanol subsidies...  simultaneously paying farmers to grow food and others not to grow food.

Dig a hole, tax a permit to dig the hole, tax getting rid of the dirt, pay and tax the worker, pay and tax the shovel maker, pay for a 10 year study to fill the hole...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:07 | Link to Comment Milestones
Milestones's picture

Better up there than a high roller game of craps in the board room of Goldmans.  2.5 Billion on Wall St is chump change.   Milestones

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:29 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

it'll all be worth it when the martians bail us out

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 03:05 | Link to Comment calgal
calgal's picture

You silly wabbit

They're not sending anything to mars except your imagination....

They say this shit and then broadcast a bunch of phony pix

And then they steal the money out of the treasury for nefarious thingys like chemtrails and bailouts

Get with the program bob!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 06:16 | Link to Comment criticaster
criticaster's picture

Sure. Why not give it to a bank, or better still use it blow civilians up instead? America, FUCK YEA!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

I would rather die young exploring than live forever in a cave.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:17 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Its amazing just how many folks are telling it like it is, yet we still have so many more that actually think our current sustem is sustainable and the EU will be fine... 

Can people possibly be this stupid? 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:19 | Link to Comment Glass Steagall
Glass Steagall's picture

They are actually something worse than stupid.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:17 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Bass kicks ass. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

It seems that Central Banks tried to provide for the short-term funding needs of Europe's banks today, while it is still every Country for itself to try and solve the real insolvency of their own banks.  That clearly won't work so there is probably insane plan #2 still to come?  As ZH knows, these sons of bitches aren't going down without a crazy fight.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

These "plans" seem cobbled together and more desperate by the day

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:29 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Seems like a lot of global coordination to me.  I may just be sick of waiting for capitulation, but I get the feeling the German's are about to agree to something stupid.  More time to buy gold I suppose...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Uncle Sugar
Uncle Sugar's picture

Frankly I'm glad the Fed is able to keep the balls in the air a little longer. I'm not done buying all my rounds (Au, Ag and Pb) and other supplies.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

So Japan will make us feel better about Europe- awesome.....

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:27 | Link to Comment billsykes
billsykes's picture

ha ha, in Firefox it looks like its in greek.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:29 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Kyle Bass

 

I'll add that to the list of "dead bodies" I'm keeping tabs on

When the market reaches new closing highs next year.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:37 | Link to Comment DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Keep us posted on how much sleep and money you lose/gain attempting to exit in time. Hope you are not MFG'ed.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

it better to be much too early, than one day late

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:45 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Dead man tabulating.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:48 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

I bet that the market will be LOWER relative to REAL money - you can keep any list you want

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:16 | Link to Comment RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

How's NFLX doin for ya?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:51 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"Nominal" highs?  The Zimbabwe Stock Market had some pretty good years, too.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 05:31 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

RobotLemming: losing the last shreds of his ZH credibility one red arrow at a time.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Nicely timed RT, conversation winding down and you jump in to roil the waters. Kudo's TD.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:37 | Link to Comment citrine
citrine's picture

I am glad that Kyle at el mentioned Japan: my view of the country's problems had not been taken seriously enough before. Now I can simply quote him.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:36 | Link to Comment JSchroe
JSchroe's picture

Bass is far too optimistic.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 00:05 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

He has his gold, nickles and sniper rifles, if he is wrong about TEOTWAWKI.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Chorus of the American people when this shit implodes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsPYJIat0lo

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:39 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Is there a way to download the document?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment citrine
citrine's picture

I clicked the "full screen" button, while being logged in to Scribd. I do not believe you can save it, though.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 23:42 | Link to Comment el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

I saved it (on a Mac in Chrome), not in pdf but html.  But it looks very good when I kicked it up off the HD.  Just went to full screen and right click pull down to "save as"

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

The download option has been disabled by the author.

So while you're here:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/74335711/Hayman-Nov2011

Print, 'Destination' either CutePDF or Print to PDF.

Optional Install:
http://www.cutepdf.com/

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 22:44 | Link to Comment fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

It's a mixed message. Trillions of dollars in debt that needs to be destroyed. Countries going under left and right.

But it's not the end of the world etc, the social fabric would be ruffled?...It would seem if these things played out and the domino's fell all the way to the US it may not literally be the end of the world....but It would be pretty freaking bad. The social fabric would be more than ruffled.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:29 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Social fabric might be ruffled?  Oh the Greek govt union workers might have to take a 10% pay cut, might have to work until age 51 and not have a millionaire pension?  The Horror!

Sadly - I think we moved beyond that.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 01:42 | Link to Comment sasebo
sasebo's picture

Just says that the financial parasites aren't important enough to shut down the real economy, or they already would have. We can shut them down & keep on trucking. Who needs them & all their fraudulent debt? Not I.

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