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On The Imminent Slovenian Government Collapse And Greek T-Bills

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Slovenia and Greek T-Bills

It looks like the Slovenian Government may collapse today.  It is one of the smallest EU members, but an EU member nonetheless.  Slovenia accounts for about 0.5% of EFSF and is Aa2/AA  

Looks like Greece won't default today, though it seems that more and more people think it is the likely outcome, and actually think it is the best outcome from Europe.  Stocks continue to rally on every bit of good news related to Greece, but there is a growing consensus that Greece should default sooner than later, and that it would be easier for Europe to deal with that, than the eventual default.

Still waiting for the "private sector initiative" results on Greece.  I really am not sure how much of a benefit Greece gets, but the banks transfer about 40% of their Greek exposure to EFSF exposure.  Not a bad deal for banks considering where Greek bonds trade.

The Greek T-bill was a success, although my understanding is somehow t-bills are treated differently and cannot default under EU law.  I'm not sure exactly how that works, or if it has been tested, but the T-bills do not get rated by any of the rating agencies, unlike their normal debt which is Ca/CC.  The 13 week yield of 4.5% is very expensive relative to actualy 3 month Greek paper which trades around 87 to yield 65%.  So whatever the beneficial of status of t-bills is, it has a huge impact on their yield, but also means they cannot be looked at as much of a sign of Greece's health.    Today's auction is useful but they have 2 billion coming due on Friday.  Since 4.5% seems very good for Greece, I'm not sure why they don't issue more T-bills, but I assume there is some restriction on that in the law.  

 

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Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:29 | 1688613 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'The Greek T-bill was a success, although my understanding is somehow t-bills are treated differently and cannot default under EU law.'

That level absurdity should send you on your way to a local coin shop.

As for Slovenia 'contributing' to the EFSF... (LOLing so hard)

TBC


Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:01 | 1688764 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

If Slovenia defaults, it will drag down Pottsylvania, then (shudder!) Mooseylvania!  Oh, the Humanity (or at least the moose & squirrels!) :>D

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:19 | 1689055 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

I advised them to keep their Tolar.
But they wouldn't listen.
Just as the dutch wouldn't listen when I advised them to keep their Gulden.

Germany has collapsed too:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/merkel-coalition-fears-co...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1688617 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Gold to 2K by end of year.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:29 | 1688622 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

October, you meant of course.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:30 | 1688624 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

By the end of the month

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 17:44 | 1690215 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

It should already be there. But one can never discount the cartel on gold. Only the cartel is allowed to discount gold.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:30 | 1688626 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall.....

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:31 | 1688629 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"once more...unto THE BEACH!" quite nice this time year so I've been told as well.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:34 | 1688638 RSloane
RSloane's picture

The Slovenian government will not collapse today. Full guidance and direction will be offered because its worked so well for Greece.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:25 | 1688895 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

The Swiss will provide a stick save so the Slovenian problem doesn't go contagious into Austria where banks are already in trouble for mortgages made in Swiss Franc to Hungarian properties.  That region has a bunch of messes not many are paying attention to, yet combined are bigger than Greece in EU impact potential.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:34 | 1688640 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

can we assume this spike higher on /ES is just greenspan tweeting his buddies the good news from inside ?

 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:37 | 1688656 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Prepare ship for ludicrous speed!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk7VWcuVOf0

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:39 | 1688669 oa92000
oa92000's picture

 

 

HELP ME HERE !!!

why can not Greek government sell their land and other assets to avoid default?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:21 | 1688877 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

They don't want to. Period. They want to keep their corrupted system with all the benefits to "insiders".

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190419460457658022015932424...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:44 | 1688688 DosZap
DosZap's picture

WHY would Greece SELL their country?,screw the Banksters default.

Do an Iceland.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:07 | 1688791 oa92000
oa92000's picture

 

 

According to law, does Greek government have to include their land into the asset pool that would be used to pay off the debt?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:54 | 1688730 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It appears that Greece has found some way to game the EU financial system. I think Greece delaying the default is a constant uncertainty to the market. This is why the markets are volatile. The idiot officals don't really understand that. Like Robot girl said the other day: Once Greece defaults, the market will rally because the shoe finally dropped.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 10:54 | 1688733 SteveGennisonBa...
SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

Ah good ole Slovenia, was just next door in Croatia visiting family.  They are jonesin' to join the EU even now, with all this shit going on.  It seems to be a sense of acceptance in Europe for them.  Weird.  I called my family dumbasses.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:25 | 1688897 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

...pizde!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:34 | 1688936 SteveGennisonBa...
SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

jebem ti mater!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:15 | 1689091 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

imate li slivovica?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:49 | 1689251 Picaferaj
Picaferaj's picture

Mogoce še kaj? / Možda još nešto?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 13:11 | 1689333 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Viljamovka!

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:17 | 1688856 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Gubbermint collapse should be wildly bullish for Slovenian spreads. In EU/Euro-fantasyland everything that in normal world would be potentially damaging to democracy, public finances etc is treated as a positive. Just look at Belgium...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:28 | 1688907 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Kreditanstalt, bitchez ...

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:36 | 1688945 KondaU
KondaU's picture

Considering what was said by now in the slovene parliament, the government will be ousted. We will however not have a general election, but a search for someone foolish enough to govern until november 2012 elections, which will probably be unsucessful.

 

In short: Current government is an unmitigated disaster. Corruption is running rampant. Country of 2M people borrows roughly 2B EUR a year just to keep afloat and most of our biggest banks are close to collapse due to abovementioned corruption and foolish lending to real estate builders which already collapsed mainly because banks will not let them sell the properties for less than they owe. In a country with average wage of 975 EUR a 50m2 appartment costs 125.000 EUR.

 

Yea. Slovenia is going down

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:40 | 1688951 drB
drB's picture

1. What is the connection between Slovenian govt collapse and Greece?
2. What significance does the Slovenian govt collapse have? Governments collapse and new ones are formed with no negative effects on economy.
3. I think total Slovene govt debt is about 50-60% of GDP which is less than for many European countries.

And for aficionados of Slovene swearwords - jebi se pizda materna :)

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 11:47 | 1688989 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Go fuck your mother's cunt?  That's harsh. 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 13:02 | 1689302 Picaferaj
Picaferaj's picture

The significance is that the Slovenian parliament won't be able to vote on the EFSF expansion until 2012.

 

Prokleti skupnoskledarji! ;)

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:03 | 1689030 KondaU
KondaU's picture

88/90 representatives present, yea I know...88. 51 voted down the prime minister's suggestion for new ministerial positions so we can say the govt has collapsed

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 12:26 | 1689143 KondaU
KondaU's picture

Whoa. one of the ministers says elections may be held in 2nd half of this november. 

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