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The Implications Of A Failed Monetary System
Santiago Capital has put together a concise and highly informative 10 minutes video, which explains in the amount of time that a traditional economics professor takes to prepare their coffee, virtually everything that is at risk, and fundamentally flawed, with the current monetary system. While this presentation will not be news to regular readers, we suggest it is watched with recent revelations elsewhere (certainly not here: this has been the default assumption here since day one), that it is flow, not stock that matters to price formation. Which means the exponential curve discussed below will only get ever steeper to asymptote, if the true purpose of the Fed is simply to ramp stocks come hell or high water, in its artificial pursuit of "price stability."
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Hyperinflation is actually already here. Just happens that nobody has stood up and pointed it out to the masses. Once that person declares to the masses that all paper wealth is essentially worthless, the show ends.
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Hyper-inflation "was" here-
Now comes the inevatable deflation-
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO
http://bit.ly/HOETHo
Deflation could have happened in 2008 w/o central bank and government intervention. It was necessary and would have killed off the worst of the parasites on Wall Street. Instead they got bailed out, got free money and started shopping. They bought everything they could afford to which is alot when you have access to free money.
It is free money. It is funny money. It has no value.
Hyperinflation is here and it will get acknowledged once the holders of funny money STOP pretending they actually hold anything of value and START buying everything tangible with their funny money. This process is starting now. The funny money is gradually leaving the equity and bond market.
Where is the cash going? It's not being stashed under someone's mattress, I guarantee you that.
Watch for massive land purchases. Watch for major gold and silver bullion transactions. Problem is, the sellers of land and bullion don't want to have the cash either. WTF are they going to do with the cash?
My friend, cash is worthless. All paper wealth is worthless. It will gradually sink in, the speed of transactions will gradually accelerate. There will be a frenzy and a panic when NOBODY wants to hold worthless cash.
BEN KNOWS THIS. Further easing would literally ignite the fuse to the powder keg.
Do you have lots of cash? I know people that do and they are loosing sleep over it.
My friend, cash is worthless. All paper wealth is worthless. It will gradually sink in, the speed of transactions will gradually accelerate. There will be a frenzy and a panic when NOBODY wants to hold worthless cash.
BEN KNOWS THIS. Further easing would literally ignite the fuse to the powder keg.
Do you have lots of cash? I know people that do and they are loosing sleep over it.
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Maybe you are getting ahead of yourself-cash is not worthless-yet-
I can buy a barrel of oil today for the same price i did in 2007-
If my wage is the same today as it was in 2007-how has my cash become worthless?
If i see a house with a 4-sale sign on it i can go offer cash for that amount-and perhaps the price of the house is back at 2007 prices-
I sleep ok with cash-I sleep better with gold-because gold is better quality money and money is king in deflation-
Yes, I am getting ahead of myself. But I wouldn't want to be caught in the trap. It can happen any day. How much cash can you convert when the stampede starts?
Yes, I am getting ahead of myself. But I wouldn't want to be caught in the trap. It can happen any day. How much cash can you convert when the stampede starts?
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If we listen to what the vid above explains-we simply do not have enough currency to back the debt-which means that it is in short supply relative to total debt-
As the velocity proves-there is a demand for cash-
Here's where all the newly printed money sits-
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS
When they start lending that out-your game will be on-until then-cash is in demand-
If China et al start redeeming bonds in a big way-demand for cash will increase-
I don't know if there's a difference between actual printed cash and electronic cash. The Chinese are not getting paper cash in exchange for their bond sales, they will get a wire into their accounts.
The sheer size of these amounts though is what will kick start the money circulation, the loss of faith and the perception that it's essentially worthless in any form.
The sheer size of these amounts though is what will kick start the money circulation
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Sure-if they all start spending it as fast as they get it-that would be a run on the $ and it could hyper-inflate-
China would also go down in flames as their Yaun is $ pegged-
IMO--to get money in circulation-people/business have to start borrowing again and there lies Bernankes problem-
Those who could borrow wont and those that would borrow can't-
Sentiment has shifted like the vid explained-credit/debt is contracting-it was inflation in expansion-so it has to be deflation in contraction and the credit supply dwarfs currency supply--as Mises explained-both are counted as money supply-the currency supply is simply base supply-
Do you think Weimar in all its "pomp and glory" came crashing down because people had to borrow?
There was nowhere to borrow, or burrow??
So, again I ask. What difference does it make whether the trillions are actually printed and shipped around physically or the trillions are sloshing around in bits and bytes in electronic payments?
There is no difference.
It takes one pebble to get the stone roling. Whatever it may be. The tension is palpable. So much money in electronic circulation. So much paper wealth on balance sheets and nothing backing it.
Someone is going to call "FIRE" in the crowded theatre and it will happen when you least expect it. Then it will be too late to get anything of value for cash.
Central banks will be forced to print money onto paper at that moment. There will be people lining up to withdraw mountains of cash. The CBs can either comply with the requests or they call bank holidays. Either way, the outcome is the same.
Trillions are sloshing around and the economies are not growing one real iota. Equity markets are churning with no real input or output. Debts are not being repaid. The cost of carrying the debt is only possible with increased debt or "Twist" or "LTRO" balance sheet "adjustments" where the long term debt will become virtually worthless to the lender. The lenders of last resort are the CBs. Weimar's lender of last resort was the Deutsche Reichsbank. The Deutsche Reichsbank helped the banking sector with liquidity. Sounds familiar?
The dam WILL break. Only a matter of when now and probably THIS YEAR. With or without further QE. A QE announcement would only bring about the collapse faster. BEN KNOWS THIS.
Do you think Weimar in all its "pomp and glory" came crashing down because people had to borrow?
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You can't compare Wiemar to today-the rest of the world was locked to gold and Germany unlocked and printed-
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Trillions are sloshing around and the economies are not growing one real iota.
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I wish these reply boxes didn't shrink because there's not room to finish a discussion-but anyway-
There are not trillions sloshing around-dollars are being hoarded-look at the chart of bank reserves-that's a 60 yr. chart and this is the first time they're sitting on cash-
"There are not trillions sloshing around-dollars are being hoarded-look at the chart of bank reserves-that's a 60 yr. chart and this is the first time they're sitting on cash-"
And those "dollars" are doing what they were meant to do- keep banks from collapsing. Problem is, this was a successful operation yet the patient is STILL terminal. It was about one of two choices (other than the third one of just plain calling the game over):
1) Fill the holes in banks' books;
2) Fill the holes in individuals' books.
BUT... that "filling" couldn't be undone. The "filling" has to STAY in place; well, it doesn't HAVE to, it just needs to, lest the auditors close the doors. In BOTH cases the banks will die because they won't have any customers (well, right now they're shaking down smaller institutions of their customers, but eventually there's no more growth and the music stops).
So, the money keeps the store's doors open, but the store is empty (and customers are poor). What is the value of the money then?
jimmyjames, thanks for the dialogue. for the record, we aren't disagreeing. this is constructive dialogue. in my opinion anyways. agree with you on the size of the boxes.
you are right on the money. pun intended. the dollars are being hoarded. that is too much hoarded capital. that capital cannot earn any return simply because the returns cannot be earned other than with more of the same.. printed debt. that capital will find its way into the system. by way of purchases. watch for massive purchases of land, livestock, mines, precious metals. literally anything that is solid that money can buy. there will be a race akin to a stampede.
we're back to square one of our dialogue. cash is worth less and less each day and ultimately worthless when faith in fiat evaporates into the same thin air that this last batch of funny money was created from.
I don't think we need concern ourselves over the bullion dealers, with the inventory they have on hand any given day. Even if they purchased on credit, odds are that the contract calls for payment in U.S. dollars. I've looked over a number of my contracts and they specify payment in dollars. Sure, it would mean some really rough times ahead, but imagine that feeling of euphoria for just a brief moment in time. Windfall!
I like that part about housewives standing in line at the soup kitchen. Same goes for women who divorce their husbands and live of the government and spousal support. I predict there is going to be a real revolution in the women's movement, time to learn home economics, knitting, and planting home gardens, not mouthing off to their husbands, showing off, and using the family's credit card to "eat out".
I almost envy my two young sons who will have decent women to choose from.
And perhaps men will come home and not be out gambling and drinking (and not coming home and beating their wives?).
simplicity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPtYGJOh3f4
Brilliant. The Spaniards are probably watching this movie more frequently now than in 2007. There is a real chance that Spain will be the dark horse once again.
One of the best vids capturing the essence of the crisis in under four minutes.
Very good, that's precisely why a system built around gold can never function. We can create things of value but if you set prices around a fixed volume system then eventually the system has to break, fiat is the only way for a society to survive.
"but if you set prices around a fixed volume system then eventually the system has to break, fiat is the only way for a society to survive."
Poke yer head out yer window. That's the real world. It's on top of a fucking ball that's racing around the universe. IT IS A FIXED VOLUME SYSTEM!
GOLD
Not to mention the massive amount of malinvestments caused by 0% rates. Artificially low rates are no problem as long as rates can be lowered further, which keeps the malinvestments from collapsing by creating even more malinvestments.
Crash JPM buy silver!
still?
well, ok!
blythe?
honey is that you?
Tom Jones Its Not Unusual
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URr_6rNlUcU (2:06)
Anyone with a modicum of knowledge of Austrian Economics (Peter Schiff for one) seen the writing on the wall years ago. But because the system relies upon Keyenisian school of thought from top to bottom, from kindergarten to university, most are brainwashed into thinking Austrian economic thinkers are a bunch of nut jobs!
How wrong they are! Hows that writing on the wall for you now? Pretty clear is it? And getting clearer? FUBAR.
And does "Austrian Ecoonomics" rely on infinite growth on a finite planet as well?
That was a copy of a video called Money as Debt, only shorter. Excellent video btw.
O.M.G., I'm having heart failure !!! I know all this, i've known all this now for almost 3 years. I have tried to warn my friends & family, they think i'm nuts !! the whole system is going to blow !!!!! GO OUT NOW & GET YOURSELF AS MUCH SILVER & FOOD AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN ! buy it now & prepare your homes into bunkers . & GOD HELP US ALL .
There is still enough time to walk, stop running around like a sheeple with your head cut off.
callToBunkers from lynny_B!
Lynnybee, you are nuts! But on ZH you are not as nuts!
Hey man calm down..You're going to die anyway..Take your time, no use rushing it....
Food preps are good..I've got allot of cans with a Dec 21 2012 expiration date...Funny the things you notice. Silver is good also...Government made gold illegal to hold the last time around...During the next Ponzi Reconfig they'll probably do the same thing..
LAUGHS and points to the upper right corner of your screen. Right on, Mr. Howdy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn7gHT9Fzk8
this 12 year old lil girl has it ALL! under control!
Except she talks like a valley girl.
What is this with that accent? It has now gone into main stream media. Stop this bimbo talk I am about to vomit.
I'd rather listen to her than to Obama or Romney. she makes more sense than Obama or Romney. In fact, I'd rather have her as president than Obama or Romney. True, she's young, but at least we no longer have to worry about the validity of that "natural born citizen" clause any longer.
We are the World - Michael Jackson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcwblvqir-s (7:13)
What does any 12 year old know personally about taxation, debt, debt slavery and state collusion with banksters?
Nothing whatever.
She has just been brainwashed to repeat this with no personal understanding of what it means in practice.
The parent is a moron.
I was just speaking with the local tella bankster today, our topic of discussion during my business transaction was the "velocity of money" kind of ironic to come back to the pole this afternoon and see this one yikes! Tyler, she's gonna blow anytime now, I can feel the pressure building.
We don't have a fractional reserve currency system. Even the FED admits it:
“Changes in reserves are unrelated to changes in lending, and open market operations do not have a direct impact on lending. We conclude that the textbook treatment of money in the transmission mechanism can be rejected.”
Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201041/201041pap.pdf
The 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by the Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system, are organized similarly to private corporations--possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm
Does anyone have anymore "facts" from the Federal Reserve propaganda site?
Am I the only one with acid burning through his stomach? I'm a ten year old with a fucking ulcer and obviously bad parents.
too much uncle tyler?
I'll deal with the ulcer...
" Americans will remain willfully ignorant of the big red, white and blue dick thats being jammed up their assholes everyday. Because the owners of this country know the truth, it's called the 'American Dream', because you have to be asleep to believe it."
-George Carlin
GROWTH is good for you!
This presentation looks a bit like it was made by conspiracy theorists.
I don't know much about the Federal Reserve System, except what I learnt in high school, but to my mind is is pretty obvious that the country couldn't function without it (see the banking panics and the Long Depression of the 1800s).
Besides, all the "fiat paper money" and "evil Rothschilds" talk makes them look like a ranting Alex Jones. The world is not black or white or made up of conspiracies, it is very complex and comes in shades of grey.
I don't know much about the Federal Reserve System, except what I learnt in high school, but to my mind is is pretty obvious that the country couldn't function without it (see the banking panics and the Long Depression of the 1800s).
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Ok-so what were the consequences as opposed to what the Fed did during their 1930's depreession?
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To be sure, there was a massive deflation of the money supply, especially in the years 1839 to 1843, and a similarly massive decline in prices. So why wasn't this a 'severe depression' as Lowenstein wrongly avers? As Rothbard writes on this:
love the satire, hamy...
glad to see you again...
missed ya...
that vid was made for retards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IwwuZr6H1LQ
yeah well, it's not 100% accurate but it does explain a few things for total noobs.
it's great to send to friends or anyone who is still buying stocks right now, think Fukushima is a sort of sushi-roll, and park their hard earned savings with the TBTF.
0__0
News flash March, 2013: In order to boost confidence in the dollar, President Romney today ordered that all FRN's will henceforth carry the smiling face of Ronald Reagan regardless of denomination.
No. Your presentation is wrong and premis is flawed. Money is not created through the fed but created through the fractional reserve system and thus consumer debt.
Banks only hold only a "fraction "of their deposits (reserves, while the rest is re-loaned (assuming people are borrowing money). Then loan proceeds are deposited in another bank account and again a fraction again is re-loaned, The process continues over and over again.
This is how a simple $10,000 deposit can generate up to $90,000 in new loans (according to money mechanics which is a publication that explains the process by the St Louis fed). This is why banks are always leveraged. It is also the secret of "pro growth Policies" that bring in more revenue to the government. Deficits do not drive growth but consumers borrowing and spending money created out of thin air does.
It is why there is nothing real and the reason why there is inflation and so much disparity. The world is operating under the illusion of prosperity. Without an ever growing additional supply of new consumer debt, the economy cannot be supported. Why? Because money that is lent must be repaid. It is that simple.
Money spent does not circulate but goes back to paying someone debt along the food chain, thus raising banking reserves and allowing for more lending. And once a debt is paid off it must be replace by another debt or money leaves circulation. This has never happened before but people are not borrowing enough money to support the economy.
Sure banks can borrow money from the fed but they must pay it back with interest, thus removing the money out of circulation back to the fed. It is actually a deflationary process unless banks lend out more money than was borrowed generating interest and profits. Without an act from congress, the fed cannot inflate the money supply legally.
The fed holds existing treasury debt or buys and sells it for proceeds that have already been created through the fractional reserve system. It is the same can be said when the treasury sells and IOU's. They sell it for proceeds that have already been created. When foreign governments buy our debt, they buy it with American dollars that has already been created too assuming that the fed does not created money illegally by placing digital credits in foreign nations accounts so that they do not take enough money out of circulation. We don't know since it has not really been audited.
And the Fed passes all interest that it receives from holding treasuries back to the treasury, which means that the government pays interest to itself. Finance, the economy, and just about everything else in the last 100 years including the creation of nations is a lie and would not exist except for the debasment of currency nor will they after the real correction. Centralized governemns cannot exist without this. It was the excessive printing of money that gave rises to things like socialism and nationalism. These would not exist under sound money. The whole world is a stage but it is over for them.
Because of this a lot of people are going to get stuck ether by not being paid or by money that has been inflated money. The real problem has not occurred yet. The real problem will happen when the economy returns and people in mass start borrowing money.
This site is pretty much 110% lender fault / 0% borrower fault. Borrowers are always the victims of banks. Not borrowing money (or borrowing very little) is not an acceptable solution. We have lots of "needs" you know. Can't stop ourselves from debt financed consumption.
Whao there fella..the biggest 'crime' most committed was paying too much (the prevailing market rate) for a roof over their heads..the reason they had to pay more and more was due to the games Wall St invented.. Ya know those sub prime securitised bollocks, you may have heard of them? Caused a bit of a fuss a few years back?
...and so I lend you money knowing you're a deadbeat and that's not my fault?
Yea OK...the people who have been conned by just about every politician and wallstreet scumbag out there with the "American Dream" BS...It's sooo totally their fault.
"Go Shopping" - GWB
Not every here feels that way. For those who were prudent they escaped much of the heartache. Unfortunately not everyone has advanced degrees and understands the time value of money and other aspects of managerial accounting. Those who trusted and were betrayed DO have just cause to be angry. We trusted our politicians and they treated us like muppets (yea the bankers were not alone). Those who did deserve whatever is coming. Every Congressman who had a hard time seeing the limitations of the Constitution...they have it coming double.
My only feeling is this: The country is going down and no one is doing anything to stop it...They don't want to and maybe they know they can't...
We would need such a radical departure from what we do now...Tax Code needs to be 10% for all activities..No loopholes allowed..Make the tax code so simple that it drive business here..
Unfortunately our CONgressmen would never have it...Because then things would actually be fair and that's not what they or their sponsors ever wanted.
Did you actually watch the video?
Information theory alone would tell you that you can't get something for nothing. That is the Fed has zero ability to positively influence the amount of information in the system (the only value it can create since it produces nothing and has no commodities). Unless one assumes Ben Bernanke is a quantum amount smarter than everyone else (I would be hard pressed to find anyone who believes that), the central banks are by definition a Ponzi scheme.
Therefore the geometric progression of expanding money must eventually lead to a collapse, the only question is when this happens. The central banks are all pushing on a string. My only divergence from this presentation is that what occurs is more of a Biflationary Depression than inflationary depression, caused by a mix of inflationary AND deflationary forces. In Biflation, monetary inflation in certain sectors is accompanied by deflationary crashes in other sectors as velocity plummets. The video alluded to this by showing the collapse of M1 and M2 velocity. But the Keynesian 'unexpected' stagflation that they talk about, is really EXPECTED biflation - it is worse than the sum of inflation and unemployment rates because the stagflation is compounded with the collapse of wages, interest rate returns, etc. Here's some description of a Biflationary Depression. http://www.futurnamics.com/biflation.php
About the only way out for the little guy is to Go Galt. That means not only buying gold and silver, but internationalizing investments, becoming self sufficient where possible (maybe to the extent of growing food), doing maintenace yourelf, etc. Anything to be out of the way of the economic bus as it goes off the cliff. http://www.futurnamics.com/goinggalt.php
Watch this speech:) http://youtu.be/Y-rMBqdzv2A
Ron Paul has secured 10 of 12 delegates in MN
Red Alert! The 'Cyber Intelligence Sharing & Protection Act' CISPA (HR 3523) Already Has Over 100 Co-sponsors
http://www.dailypaul.com/227007/red-alert-cispa-hr-3523-the-ciber-intelligance-sharing-protection-act-already-has-over-100-congressional-co-sponsers
i posted this yesterday and 'steve from virginia' had an excellent reply - but i'd like as many people as possible to see this.
it is in a sense, from an 'insider'. however she choose wisely to get outside. personally, i think they were setting her up big time to fail. and she did dissent in the media, in an odd way when she was in front of congress, et. al.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fix-income-inequality-with-10-million-loans-for-everyone/2012/04/13/gIQATUQAFT_story.html
Thanks Tyler! :)
Another round of kool-aid for everyone!
Isn't life grand....got gold???
that's 'zee price ste-beel-e-tee' using correct ECB pronunciation
I was with him right up to the point where is told me that Gold is the answer.
Bzzzzzt. Sorry. When the deleveraging hits, you're precious shiny shit will be headed south.
Don't bother telling me I'm wrong. I've heard it all. Just keep buying that crap.
you'll be long dead and gone and gold will still very valuable. unless 5000 years of recorded history is wrong.
When the deleveraging hits.....you don't think that the Gov'ts will print more, or just hand it out?
Eurpe will go down...and you don't think those socialists will print?
There maybe a s/t correction in AU, but it is just a question of time before they panic and print.
Ok man, whatever you say
market heading up into 18-20th
http://change-in-trend-premium.blogspot.com/
Very interesting. Failed monetary system or not, the dollar is probably headed higher at least over the mid-term. Resource and material ie. commodity plays are the stocks that are getting hit, not the benficiaries of a stronger dollar like the consumer sector. sell some gold and hedge with things like PG or some financials. avoid companies with currency risk.
You note that you have been waiting for default since day one of this blog which was back in 2008 0r 2009. Most of life happens under the meaty part of the bell curve. By spending all of your time waiting for Armageddon you miss quite a few opportunities to make a few shekels. It is not about being right or wrong; it is about making money.
oh, we've made some silver and gold in between. but inevitability could happen any day.
In my opinion (which probably has about the same level of soundness as the latest figures coming out of the BLS, though with a great deal more intellectual honesty) if you aren't hedging that dollar with some type of tangible commodity, it won't matter how much fiat you've made if this thing comes down.
I debate the odds in my head all the time, but have no crystal ball that tells me how it will ultimately turn out. At this point, I see no conflict in being schizophrenic by preparing for it to go into free fall tomorrow, while also preparing for the system to stay intact for my lifetime. Those are the conclusions I've reached. Your conclusions may vary.
Pentagon defends millions to contractor despite unpaid taxes
By Tom Vanden Brook and Ray Locker, USA TODAY
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-04-15/carper-lionie-i...
.
"..Carper and Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., had urged the Pentagon to garnish federal payments made to contractors if they had overdue taxes. They had cited a Feb. 29 USA TODAY report about the growth in Pentagon spending on information operations or propaganda programs. The article detailed how two owners of Leonie Industries, the Pentagon's largest such contractor in Afghanistan, owed more than $4 million in unpaid federal taxes.
The owners, the sister-brother team of Rema DuPont and Camille Chidiac, repaid their taxes in late March, according to documents provided by Gar Smith, a spokesman for Leonie Industries.
"Leonie and my clients were in full compliance with contracting laws related to debts or delinquencies," said L. Lin Wood, a Leonie attorney. "To suggest otherwise would be a clear misrepresentation of the facts."
" ....
Except the Fed is not "the government", its a private company with share holders... a private company with a checkbook that can never run out of funds.
They can create money for anything.... even hiring ninja assasins. . . there are no regulations or oversight.
So by this logic, the only outcomes are.
-Hyper inflation
-Hyper deflation
-A new monetary system, or the return of an older monetary system (gold) that isn't so "needy" for exponential growth to survive.
-Banks keep getting free money and just hold onto it till people starve to death and revolution happens.
Might as well stop paying your mortgage then if thats the case.... no point in wasting your money when you can pick your house back up in 10 years for 1/10th the price.... your debt will be devalued due to hyper inflation. . . they will have to force the min wage up to something stupid like like 1000 an hour just to keep the system going.
http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/2012/04/change-in-trend-premium-website.html
I'm not so sure anything will change. We will all still sleep 8 hrs. a day, work 8 Hrs. and fuck around the other 8.
Why sweat the small stuff? Probably because your as worthless as tits on a bull, eh?
Betting on gold, cash or puka shells is a bad risk, they will adjust to the times, up or down.
What won't change is the fact you will need sleep and have to work getting in the much needed fuck around time. Buy your toys !
Which is exacly why fiat currency will be replaced with labor vouchers, like Ithica Hours.
[/sarc]
Brazil and India Bonds, 12.55 and 8.8 % yielding, much higher than PIGS, Brazil's 10 year is better than credit cards.
CDS's are risk free, pending India doesn't starve to death in 10 years on their way to becoming the largest economy by 2050.