Implied Unemployment Rate Rises To 11.5%, Spread To Propaganda Number Surges To 30 Year High

Tyler Durden's picture

Sick of the BLS propaganda? Then do the following calculation with us: using BLS data, the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January, an increase of 1.7 million month over month: apply the long-term average labor force participation rate of 65.8% to this number (because as chart 2 below shows, people are not retiring as the popular propaganda goes: in fact labor participation in those aged 55 and over has been soaring as more and more old people have to work overtime, forget retiring), and you get 159.4 million: that is what the real labor force should be. The BLS reported one? 154.4 million: a tiny 5 million difference. Then add these people who the BLS is purposefully ignoring yet who most certainly are in dire need of labor and/or a job to the 12.758 million reported unemployed by the BLS and you get 17.776 million in real unemployed workers. What does this mean? That using just the BLS denominator in calculating the unemployed rate of 154.4 million, the real unemployment rate actually rose in January to 11.5%. Compare that with the BLS reported decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. It also means that the spread between the reported and implied unemployment rate just soared to a fresh 30 year high of 3.2%. And that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda.

Difference between Reported and Implied Unemployment Rate

And why the Labor Force Participation rate is not declining due to retirement.

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alien-IQ's picture

Well Done!!! Simplicity at it's finest.

The truth is often simple. Lies are complex.

VanillAnalyst's picture

ZH to BLS; "All ur base belong to us"

TruthInSunshine's picture

LOLstatistic of the day, bitchez, courteesy of the Obama-New York Times Propaganda Bundling Campaign itself:

Wow. But Is the Number Real? 

February 3, 2012, 10:13 am


How many jobs did the American economy add in January?


The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.


The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.

The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment. Employment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.



And that's your LOLstatistics Moment of the Day, bitchez.

dataanalytics's picture

"But there are plenty of signs that gains are real."

So, you make this statement, yet you offer NO proof or data to back it up.

Stop your shilling Floyd. The New York Slimes, a wonderfully biased, left-wing propagandist rag! Wow, some sharp reporting there Floyd the barber...

TruthInSunshine's picture

Bullshit Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing its thang...

1.2 million working age people no longer have the honor & privilege of being 'counted' for purposes of tabulating unemployment + inherently flawed 'seasonal january adjustment' + a whole lot of temporary workers @ no benefits and minimum wage = turn an actual survey data of a loss of 2.7 million jobs into a BLS reported gain of 243,000 jobs.



....Recovery, bitchez!

economics1996's picture

I checked Tyler's numbers and he is pretty much spot on.  This is bull shit.


The civilian labor force participation rate dropped from December 2011 to January 2012 from 63.8% to 63.4%. this is the lowest it has been since May 1983. The employment-population ratio dropped from 58.5% to 57.8% from December 2011 to January 2012. So why has the unemployment rate dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%?


The civilian non-institutionalized population increased from 240,584,000 to to 242,269,000, a increase of 1,685,000, and more importantly the actual civilian employment dropped from 140,681,000 in December 2011, to 139,944,000 in January 2012.

Using the BLS data the employment was 139,994,000 and the civilian labor force was 153,485,000 for a unemployment rate of 8.8%. So there is a statistical correction with their numbers of 0.5%?

If you use the late 90s as a base line the unemployment rate is 139,994,000/164,112,000 = 14.7%. The 164,112,000 is based on a growth rate of 16.68% in the civilian non-institutional population increase since June 1999.

If you use more recent participation rate the unemployment rate INCREASED to 11.5%.

Either way you calculate it the federal government has decided they do not want Mitt Romney cutting their budgets and the propaganda war is on. Look for this bogus data to continue through election day.


GetZeeGold's picture

We're either doing really good or really bad....I can't decide which.

Ljoot's picture

Either way, it's bullish!


DaveyJones's picture

Lies are always harder to tell because you have to have a perfect memory. I hate that about them.

thedrickster's picture

Steve Liesman rolls eyes and begins next the sentence with "We" & "economists". Barry O adds "Straight denominator homey".

dataanalytics's picture

LOL- Liesman! He's such a douche, isn't he?

hedgeless_horseman's picture



For the moment he had shut his ears to the remoter noises and was listening to the stuff that streamed out of the telescreen. It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grammes a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grammes a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it. Parsons swallowed it easily, with the stupidity of an animal. The eyeless creature at the other table swallowed it fanatically, passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grammes. Syme, too-in some more complex way, involving doublethink, Syme swallowed it. Was he, then, alone in the possession of a memory?


Orwell's 1984

francis_sawyer's picture

there's that word "vaporize" again...

hedgeless_horseman's picture



For the moment he had shut his ears to the remoter noises and was listening to the stuff that streamed out of the television. It appeared that there had even been press conferences scheduled to promote Barack Obama for lowering the unemployment rate to 8.3% this week. And within minutes, he reflected, it had been announced that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7%. Was it possible that they could swallow 8.3% unemployment, after reading Zero Hedge? Yes, they swallowed it. Liesman swallowed it easily, with the stupidity of an animal that does not understand how a percentage is calculated. The eyeless creatures at The Wall Street Journal swallowed it fanatically, passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that the unemployment rate was increasing. Bloomberg, too-in some more complex way, involving doublethink, Bloomberg swallowed it. Was Zero Hedge, then, alone in the possession of a working Excel spreadsheet program and the courage to use it?


Obama's 2012

Talons Point's picture

Posted this and the original Orwell qoute in my "Wisdom From The Web" feature


That was pure literary magic.

francis_sawyer's picture

Tell granny to get with the program... She needs to retire & sit at home & eat catfood in the dark...

JPM Hater001's picture

You know with a little milk and sugar it's really not that bad...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Got milk? Hell no. You'll eat your dry cat food straight up with no sugar and no milk and you'll LOVE it.

Now shut the f**k up and get back to work granny.

The Deleuzian's picture

Lots of 'Grey Beards' in the workforce...Yar!!!

midtowng's picture

In other words, what we are really looking at is the continued fucking of the younger generation.

I bet if you cracked the numbers you would see a lot of kids graduation from college and not being able to get jobs, thus dropping out of the labor force.

dwdollar's picture

Not to worry. They just vaporized.

midtowng's picture

In other words, what we are really looking at is the continued fucking of the younger generation.

I bet if you cracked the numbers you would see a lot of kids graduation from college and not being able to get jobs, thus dropping out of the labor force.

Capitalist10's picture

Junior is getting used to the idea of living on the couch in Mom's basement forever.

francis_sawyer's picture

Better hope mom didn't do a reverse mortgage cash-out... Otherwise it'll be the bottom bunk at the FEMA camp...

SeverinSlade's picture

Doesn't everyone love how the CNBC hosts completely ignored the points Santelli made when he referenced ZeroHedge (go TD)?  All that little Asian bitch did was regurgitate the BLS propaganda.  The Ministry of Truth has spoken.  Repeat the same lie as many times as you can to the sheep and eventually it is accepted as truth.

Everybodys All American's picture

They know they will be fired if they don't march to the Obama tune. MSNBC, CNBC, and NBC have been in the democrat circle for years.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



They know they will be fired if they don't march to the Obama tune. MSNBC, CNBC, and NBC have been in the democrat banking cabal advertiser circle for years.

Red team, blue team, same league ownership.  Your lame divide and conquer rhetoric does not work here.

NotApplicable's picture

Ding, ding, ding, winnah!

They've got voices of all types in order to retain a shred of credibility in the eyes of the viewers (all seven of them).

therearetoomanyidiots's picture

Don't forget Fox, NPR and the WSJ, etc.    Where the f**k are the tribunes of this society?   Lonely voices in the woods (ZH/TD/Alex Jones and the like) easily minimized and overshadowed by American Idol and Jer Z Shore.  


Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see Armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this

Bullshit...three ring...circus sideshow of

spiral galaxy's picture

More amazing that Zwonk & Zandi still have a job after missing wide and repeatedly over the last several being a mere 50%.   How Ben the Printmeister stated economic outlook just a few days ago is at complete odds to this report is amazing.  Ditto for the other 100 or so economists that make up the 'consensus'.  It'll be even more amazing how the Bernank will handle a ZIRP to 2014 policy in the face of rapidly expanding economy...assuming the report is true.  Whatever the case, my new trading methodology will now factor in the Obama manipulation/propaganda factor and assume that any survey numbers from here on out will be 1 to 2 standard deviations to the positive over consensus.

lunaticfringe's picture

Tyler...what the hell does the second sentence of this piece mean? I have re read it like 4 times and it still makes no sense to me.I have no clue what non institutional population means or where that number came from you are using...

inkarri9's picture

I think "non-institutional" means people not incarcerated.

adr's picture

Children and the elderly are not counted in the labor force as they are institutionalized, as in under someone's care. Prisoners are also not supposed to be counted, but probably are due to work programs, hell they are probably counted as employed twice. Just like their voting records.

NotApplicable's picture

They'll just keep expanding the definition to include twenty-somethings in mom's basement, and any other "group" with low employment numbers.

dtwn's picture

With a little help from Uncle Google (you know, that little internet company oft referred to as a SEARCH engine):

"Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces."

DavidC's picture

Which is why the stock indices are holding up at around +1% at the moment.

When this goes, it's going to go big time. Despite the B(L)S on the top line, I'm amazed that there hasn't been a massive drop following the pop on the figures. Go figure (no pun intended).


djudy003's picture

What makes people think that Bernanke would have missed a change in trend even as early as yesterday...  Informed (Charge higher on QE3), Uninformed(Charge higher on things getting better).... March comes around, one of them PIIGS will blow up and there it goes down again. Bernanke knows shit is going to hit the fan in Europe... All this is just padding... After all it is a much easier fall to swallow from 1400 back to 1000 vs. 1200 to 800... If central bankers have learned anything from the financial crisis is that you got to hold things up until it is good enough time. They have been holding up Greece for the past 7 months to bulld some cussions under the market and give some time to the other PIIGS...

qussl3's picture

Looking at the chart would suggest that we are bottoming out rather than topping frankly.

It really may be bullish.

Sure the Bernank will still debase, but in the global confetti race, the USD may still come out tops, crazy as that sounds.

Kinda helps that the country can be functionally self sufficient resource wise should it so choose, and should it not, the reach of its MIC is still unparalleled.


Schmuck Raker's picture


That is SO last century.

adr's picture

Poor Orwell, he was off by a couple decades. The book should have been 2014. With an Obama re-election the transformation will be complete. Since he won't need to worry about being elected again, all of the plans put in place will be executed. The FDA and EPA will take over. The pilot programs like forcing my town to raise water rates because it charged too little for water were succesful. BIG BROTHER IS HERE AND IT'S OVER FOLKS!!! Better get out now while you can.

thefedisscam's picture

"the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January,"

You MISSED "million" , should be 242,269 million

gtb's picture

You forgot to replace the comma with a period.  Should read 242.269 million.

roadhazard's picture

Unemployment here in NC went up in 90 of 94 counties. It is now "officially" 9.8. I'll bet it's 25% in this county where home building is King followed by tourism and Xmas trees.

party on, Garth

rpboxster's picture

why aren't we using the 'real' labor force as the divisor?  should it not be an adjusted 17.776/159.4 = 11.1%

Die Weiße Rose's picture

No, we could never use the 'real' labor force as the divisor !

that would upset the BLS bottom line !

BLS need the bullshit BLS  bottom line

to calculate and publish those fake GDP numbers

(ex Food, Fuel, Energy and other faked volatile BLS bullshit numbers.)

but of course you knew that,


miker's picture

I think things are getting worse and our government knows it.  They have ramped up the "optimism" machine (propaganda).  As this continues, the delta between what's really going on and what's in the press is going to widen until finally, everyone calls bullshit.  Watch out then.

MachoMan's picture

And, to make matters worse, they truly believe (or would convince us that they truly believe) that they are doing the morally correct thing by obfuscating and/or outright lying about the country's material economic and fiscal matters.  Through this, their actions will know no bounds.  Ultimately, they've made LeMay's wager, "we'll only be tried for war crimes if we lose the war."  In short, they're all in...  and not just our officials, the entire developed world's.