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Implied Unemployment Rate Rises To 11.5%, Spread To Propaganda Number Surges To 30 Year High
Sick of the BLS propaganda? Then do the following calculation with us: using BLS data, the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January, an increase of 1.7 million month over month: apply the long-term average labor force participation rate of 65.8% to this number (because as chart 2 below shows, people are not retiring as the popular propaganda goes: in fact labor participation in those aged 55 and over has been soaring as more and more old people have to work overtime, forget retiring), and you get 159.4 million: that is what the real labor force should be. The BLS reported one? 154.4 million: a tiny 5 million difference. Then add these people who the BLS is purposefully ignoring yet who most certainly are in dire need of labor and/or a job to the 12.758 million reported unemployed by the BLS and you get 17.776 million in real unemployed workers. What does this mean? That using just the BLS denominator in calculating the unemployed rate of 154.4 million, the real unemployment rate actually rose in January to 11.5%. Compare that with the BLS reported decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. It also means that the spread between the reported and implied unemployment rate just soared to a fresh 30 year high of 3.2%. And that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda.
Difference between Reported and Implied Unemployment Rate
And why the Labor Force Participation rate is not declining due to retirement.
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Well Done!!! Simplicity at it's finest.
The truth is often simple. Lies are complex.
Well said IQ.
ZH to BLS; "All ur base belong to us"
LOLstatistic of the day, bitchez, courteesy of the Obama-New York Times Propaganda Bundling Campaign itself:
Wow. But Is the Number Real?
February 3, 2012, 10:13 am
By FLOYD NORRIS
And that's your LOLstatistics Moment of the Day, bitchez.
"But there are plenty of signs that gains are real."
So, you make this statement, yet you offer NO proof or data to back it up.
Stop your shilling Floyd. The New York Slimes, a wonderfully biased, left-wing propagandist rag! Wow, some sharp reporting there Floyd the barber...
Bullshit Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing its thang...
1.2 million working age people no longer have the honor & privilege of being 'counted' for purposes of tabulating unemployment + inherently flawed 'seasonal january adjustment' + a whole lot of temporary workers @ no benefits and minimum wage = turn an actual survey data of a loss of 2.7 million jobs into a BLS reported gain of 243,000 jobs.
Yeah....
....Recovery, bitchez!
I checked Tyler's numbers and he is pretty much spot on. This is bull shit.
The civilian labor force participation rate dropped from December 2011 to January 2012 from 63.8% to 63.4%. this is the lowest it has been since May 1983. The employment-population ratio dropped from 58.5% to 57.8% from December 2011 to January 2012. So why has the unemployment rate dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%?
The civilian non-institutionalized population increased from 240,584,000 to to 242,269,000, a increase of 1,685,000, and more importantly the actual civilian employment dropped from 140,681,000 in December 2011, to 139,944,000 in January 2012.
Using the BLS data the employment was 139,994,000 and the civilian labor force was 153,485,000 for a unemployment rate of 8.8%. So there is a statistical correction with their numbers of 0.5%?
If you use the late 90s as a base line the unemployment rate is 139,994,000/164,112,000 = 14.7%. The 164,112,000 is based on a growth rate of 16.68% in the civilian non-institutional population increase since June 1999.
If you use more recent participation rate the unemployment rate INCREASED to 11.5%.
Either way you calculate it the federal government has decided they do not want Mitt Romney cutting their budgets and the propaganda war is on. Look for this bogus data to continue through election day.
http://usa-wethepeople.com/2012/02/propaganda-unemployment-numbers/
We're either doing really good or really bad....I can't decide which.
Either way, it's bullish!
Lies are always harder to tell because you have to have a perfect memory. I hate that about them.
Steve Liesman rolls eyes and begins next the sentence with "We" & "economists". Barry O adds "Straight denominator homey".
LOL- Liesman! He's such a douche, isn't he?
there's that word "vaporize" again...
Posted this and the original Orwell qoute in my "Wisdom From The Web" feature http://talonspoint.wordpress.com/2012/04/04/wisdom-from-the-web-april-4t...
That was pure literary magic.
Tell granny to get with the program... She needs to retire & sit at home & eat catfood in the dark...
You know with a little milk and sugar it's really not that bad...
Got milk? Hell no. You'll eat your dry cat food straight up with no sugar and no milk and you'll LOVE it.
Now shut the f**k up and get back to work granny.
Lots of 'Grey Beards' in the workforce...Yar!!!
In other words, what we are really looking at is the continued fucking of the younger generation.
I bet if you cracked the numbers you would see a lot of kids graduation from college and not being able to get jobs, thus dropping out of the labor force.
Not to worry. They just vaporized.
In other words, what we are really looking at is the continued fucking of the younger generation.
I bet if you cracked the numbers you would see a lot of kids graduation from college and not being able to get jobs, thus dropping out of the labor force.
Junior is getting used to the idea of living on the couch in Mom's basement forever.
Better hope mom didn't do a reverse mortgage cash-out... Otherwise it'll be the bottom bunk at the FEMA camp...
Doesn't everyone love how the CNBC hosts completely ignored the points Santelli made when he referenced ZeroHedge (go TD)? All that little Asian bitch did was regurgitate the BLS propaganda. The Ministry of Truth has spoken. Repeat the same lie as many times as you can to the sheep and eventually it is accepted as truth.
They know they will be fired if they don't march to the Obama tune. MSNBC, CNBC, and NBC have been in the democrat circle for years.
Red team, blue team, same league ownership. Your lame divide and conquer rhetoric does not work here.
Ding, ding, ding, winnah!
They've got voices of all types in order to retain a shred of credibility in the eyes of the viewers (all seven of them).
Don't forget Fox, NPR and the WSJ, etc. Where the f**k are the tribunes of this society? Lonely voices in the woods (ZH/TD/Alex Jones and the like) easily minimized and overshadowed by American Idol and Jer Z Shore.
Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see Armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this
Bullshit...three ring...circus sideshow of
Freaks
More amazing that Zwonk & Zandi still have a job after missing wide and repeatedly over the last several months......today being a mere 50%. How Ben the Printmeister stated economic outlook just a few days ago is at complete odds to this report is amazing. Ditto for the other 100 or so economists that make up the 'consensus'. It'll be even more amazing how the Bernank will handle a ZIRP to 2014 policy in the face of rapidly expanding economy...assuming the report is true. Whatever the case, my new trading methodology will now factor in the Obama manipulation/propaganda factor and assume that any survey numbers from here on out will be 1 to 2 standard deviations to the positive over consensus.
Tyler...what the hell does the second sentence of this piece mean? I have re read it like 4 times and it still makes no sense to me.I have no clue what non institutional population means or where that number came from you are using...
I think "non-institutional" means people not incarcerated.
Children and the elderly are not counted in the labor force as they are institutionalized, as in under someone's care. Prisoners are also not supposed to be counted, but probably are due to work programs, hell they are probably counted as employed twice. Just like their voting records.
They'll just keep expanding the definition to include twenty-somethings in mom's basement, and any other "group" with low employment numbers.
With a little help from Uncle Google (you know, that little internet company oft referred to as a SEARCH engine):
"Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces."
http://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm#C
Which is why the stock indices are holding up at around +1% at the moment.
When this goes, it's going to go big time. Despite the B(L)S on the top line, I'm amazed that there hasn't been a massive drop following the pop on the figures. Go figure (no pun intended).
DavidC
What makes people think that Bernanke would have missed a change in trend even as early as yesterday... Informed (Charge higher on QE3), Uninformed(Charge higher on things getting better).... March comes around, one of them PIIGS will blow up and there it goes down again. Bernanke knows shit is going to hit the fan in Europe... All this is just padding... After all it is a much easier fall to swallow from 1400 back to 1000 vs. 1200 to 800... If central bankers have learned anything from the financial crisis is that you got to hold things up until it is good enough time. They have been holding up Greece for the past 7 months to bulld some cussions under the market and give some time to the other PIIGS...
-
Looking at the chart would suggest that we are bottoming out rather than topping frankly.
It really may be bullish.
Sure the Bernank will still debase, but in the global confetti race, the USD may still come out tops, crazy as that sounds.
Kinda helps that the country can be functionally self sufficient resource wise should it so choose, and should it not, the reach of its MIC is still unparalleled.
Math?
That is SO last century.
Poor Orwell, he was off by a couple decades. The book should have been 2014. With an Obama re-election the transformation will be complete. Since he won't need to worry about being elected again, all of the plans put in place will be executed. The FDA and EPA will take over. The pilot programs like forcing my town to raise water rates because it charged too little for water were succesful. BIG BROTHER IS HERE AND IT'S OVER FOLKS!!! Better get out now while you can.
"the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269 in January,"
You MISSED "million" , should be 242,269 million
You forgot to replace the comma with a period. Should read 242.269 million.
Unemployment here in NC went up in 90 of 94 counties. It is now "officially" 9.8. I'll bet it's 25% in this county where home building is King followed by tourism and Xmas trees.
party on, Garth
why aren't we using the 'real' labor force as the divisor? should it not be an adjusted 17.776/159.4 = 11.1%
No, we could never use the 'real' labor force as the divisor !
that would upset the BLS bottom line !
BLS need the bullshit BLS bottom line
to calculate and publish those fake GDP numbers
(ex Food, Fuel, Energy and other faked volatile BLS bullshit numbers.)
but of course you knew that,
wr;)
I think things are getting worse and our government knows it. They have ramped up the "optimism" machine (propaganda). As this continues, the delta between what's really going on and what's in the press is going to widen until finally, everyone calls bullshit. Watch out then.
And, to make matters worse, they truly believe (or would convince us that they truly believe) that they are doing the morally correct thing by obfuscating and/or outright lying about the country's material economic and fiscal matters. Through this, their actions will know no bounds. Ultimately, they've made LeMay's wager, "we'll only be tried for war crimes if we lose the war." In short, they're all in... and not just our officials, the entire developed world's.
But Civilian Employment to Population REMAINS AT 58.5% AGAIN - Carter-era Malaise levels. See charts.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/unemployment-rate-drops-to-8-3-but-median-duration-of-unemployment-increases-to-21-1-weeks/
thats what you get when you work with BLS data
Bullshit numbers
they used to call that shit creative accounting,
or Mark to Hopium (MTH)
its a widespread practice in the british financial system,
because that is the only Industry they still got left.
Mark to Fucking Hopium (MTFH) the fucking bullshit crooks !
sorry people, just had to let of some steam !
Fucking Bullshit Accounting crooks !
I feel better now, thanks !
wr;)
while all of this is clearly correct, you just showed us a graph where a 2.5% drop is scaled to the exact same visual size as an 8% gain. what is the justification for that?
It fits in the page better?
This explains, and shows, why the educational establishment (marxists, socialists) have methodically eliminated math proficiency from basic general knowledge of students.
Combine this with the completely melted brains of the nation's TV watchers, who don't have enough mental fortitude to follow the equation...and voila. George Soros is in charge.
As Flounder said in Animal House, "This is gonna be great!"
The news, it appears, is even better than was the BLS has said! Praise the Lard!
Look here, doubters.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/02/03/did-economy-really-create-5000...
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/02/03/economists-react-jobs-report-p...
Nice job Tyler. The Media spin doctors don't have a leg to stand on.
Do Americans really give a fuck
who wins the presidential elections ?
If you really want to know who runs the country,
just follow the money...
Wall street wants Obama back,
because he talks a lot of bullshit, yet changes nothing.
and No Change is exactly what the ruling Elite wants.
besides....
that fucking slut Bernank wants to run the world,
so why not crown him the omnipotent Emperor,
for the Empire that buggers the world..?
crown him with a sledge-hammer,
or give him another GS 100% Haircut,
(that should fix the cunt-ry)
wr;)
As long as people (here called sheeple) simply looks at raw data broadcast from TV and/or common newspapers, they will keep living in Alice in Wonderland's world. With all its consequences.
Can someone send this article to CNBC? Just an idea.
FaceBook Conspiracy includes BLS propaganda.
El Rushbo just quoted this article at the top of his show today, named Tyler and ZH at least twice
The level of group think from the propaganda is a shameful by-product. People are actually talking about 'mimosas' at the white house and that they should be celebrating about this news. In other news, life just got harder for those not 'counted' by MSM/Central Planners.
Where did you get that second chart? real interesting.
The UE doesn't jive with all time record high food stamps. They will have to start gaming the SNAP numbers soon.
More and more seniors are having to work at least part time to survive. Their home value(retirement money) got clocked, they earn nothing on their savings/bonds and are forced to gamble on stocks which they will get burned. Things they own go down in value, meanwhile things they need (food, gas, medical etc..) go up.
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.ceseeb1.txt
I really wish they just simply publish: human with job; hours worked; humans. Leave the rest to others to anaylyze.
So, according to Tyler Douchebag's neat-o chart, Bill Clinton actually undersold his unemployment numbers. I mean who knew that unemployment under Clinton was actually only 2%! And what a great guy Clinton was for not playing politics with that number... that's so like him.
And who knew Ronnie Jesus Raygun actually had higher rates of unemployment than anything Obama's seen? I thought he was the BEST PRESIDENT EVAH!!!
Either that, or this is total BS. I wonder which it is.