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The Importance Of Being Earnest

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

The Importance Of Being Earnest

"Pray don't talk to me about the weather, Mr. Worthing. Whenever people talk to me about the weather, I always feel quite certain that they mean something else. And that makes me so nervous."

 

                                 -The Importance of Being Earnest

Today there will be no discussion of the weather. Today platitudes, arcane phrases, vague promises couched in banalities will no longer do. Mr. Draghi has laid down the gauntlet of actually providing a solution for Europe by having the ECB act as Superman, Batman and the Avengers and show up and make the last minute rescue and I fear that anything short of this will now send the markets into a tailspin. Expectations run high, Mr. Draghi may well have over-promised and any sort of under delivery will not be taken well. Today may be the most critical meeting, ever, of the European Central Bank and it is Mr. Draghi’s reputation, the ECB’s reputation that has been put on the line by Mr. Draghi’s bold comments.

This is also a play where it will be important to look behind the scenes. I suspect that the pushing and pulling to determine the lines and the acts of this drama have been frantic and also disturbing. France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece et al are all lined up on one side and I am sure they are besieging Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland et al to live up to their public pronouncements and provide monetary support to bail out the troubled nations in Europe. I would guess that the stress is acute. I think we have reached the inevitable point where Germany and the rest of the providers of capital are either going to begin their downward spiral to an average of funding costs and living standards or the Northern European backs will harden and they will decide that this is a path they will not tread. The ECB announcement today will signal far more than the next line of the European defense in my opinion. Today’s statement will mark just what the funding nations are willing to do or not and just how far Germany is willing to go. In a very real sense it is now Germany versus the troubled nations where any further significant aid will drag down Germany as it helps the crippled countries. You may think of a teeter-totter where any capital slid to one end will have the opposite effect on the other end. In my view we are at a major point of disembarkation and today is the day of decision.

While there has yet been no Lehman moment, some unexpected big bang moment with great consequences, we have had several Greek moments, a Portuguese moment, an Irish moment and a Spanish moment. Today we are going to have an ECB moment I predict that will define much more than Draghi’s brandishing of the ECB sword in a flurry of self-defense. Today you will witness, if you pay attention, exactly where the European Union is headed as defined by its central bank and the use of the EU’s Stabilization Funds. Today we will get some concrete answers and Mr. Draghi will have to do far better than “muddle through” to assure the bond markets of anything.

If normal patterns hold we will run up on the headlines, flatten out in the next few days and then decline once again as people think through the implications but today might not be a day for normal patterns. The rhetoric will be grand no doubt and dressed in its finest regalia but I have a suspicion that this time it won’t be enough. I suspect without real cannons and real bazookas and a massive amount of firepower that words alone will no longer suffice. Today I think will be rather like the Olympics and the famous words often echoed, “Today it all comes down to this” and the “this” will have to be specifically defined and then assessed by market participants.

"I've now realized for the first time in my life the vital Importance of Being Earnest."

 

                            -Oscar Wilde

 

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Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:05 | 2671457 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'm earnestly trying to do that.......but this environment is not making it easy.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:13 | 2671479 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Price action is bullish.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:25 | 2671519 DanP1966
DanP1966's picture

The price action is foolish.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:32 | 2671553 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade...

Just saying.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:05 | 2671459 vinu02
vinu02's picture

Super Lier mario conference in 25 minute. http://goo.gl/vSf3D

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:08 | 2671465 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'm sure this one is gonna be the final fix.....yes.....I'm an optimist.

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:15 | 2671486 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

"Nobody puts Draghi in the corner."

- Dirty Banking, 2012

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:53 | 2671662 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"It puts the lotion in the basket. It does this whenever it's told."

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:06 | 2671463 Peter K
Peter K's picture

You haven't gotten the memo. Today's presser is a non event. Whatever Mario announces really doesn't matter. Therefore, I suggest we all take a nice ride in the country. Move along folks, nothing to see here :)

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:08 | 2671464 AUD
AUD's picture

Draghi will promise to do what he's always done - monetise bad debt.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:10 | 2671467 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

You can't put Paul Bunyan in a bread box....sorry

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:11 | 2671471 youngman
youngman's picture

I had that moment 50 meetings ago...we are all waiting on WORDS......actions are much more valueable....actions....and they have no actions..

Greece agrees to cuts.....but do they ever happen....or do they just lie to get the cash...I think they just lie...

We have put these Politicians and Bankers on high pedestals....very high...its time to take them down some..

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:28 | 2671534 DanP1966
DanP1966's picture

Yep.....at some point the BS and spin stop working.

 

This is like a kid with a lot of promise that keeps telling you they will do better. At some point you just need to see some action..some improvement.

 

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:12 | 2671472 Enkidu78
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Ctrl P

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:12 | 2671475 oogs66
oogs66's picture

after being bearish from the low point, he is finally sounding positive?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:13 | 2671477 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Earnestness from anyone in the professional financial arena is a pipe dream.

 

Deception, lies, and otherwise self serving propaganda is the only methodology employed.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:28 | 2671538 madcows
madcows's picture

Earnest:  Characterized by showing deep sincerity: Serious.

Sincere:  Not deceitful or hypocritical: honest.

Yeah, I'd say that sums it up.  Remember, they make their living off of you and your money.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:13 | 2671478 madcows
madcows's picture

Why not just admit default, and move on.  Really, how much more can the bankers and "investors" squeeze out of these bankrupt economies.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:17 | 2671491 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Looks like we're about to find out......the suspense is killing me.

 

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:13 | 2671480 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Of course it will be enough Mr Grant.  Whatever Draghi says.

 

Who the hell do you think runs this 'market'?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:13 | 2671482 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

What, hasn't the fucktard already made his announcement?  It is now about 8:15 EST, right?  Is the asshat stalling?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:14 | 2671483 warezdog
warezdog's picture

Market implosion at opening bell and tomorrow will be a bloodbath, the can is just getting to big, each time it's kicked down the road it moves less and less.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:15 | 2671485 tiger7905
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San Bernardino files chapter 9

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=2053

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:59 | 2671702 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"They only got one shower, but it don't apply to Bobby!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lauuZyBbqKA

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:17 | 2671489 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's going to be fun to watch as more Germans realize they are working like dogs to fund France's early retirement programs, while at the same time their standard of living keeps slipping.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:28 | 2671520 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Generally true, but have to take into account that the French work for much less than the Germans.  It is a different social compact, less wages during earning years, easier coaster later......not everything is so simple......

Here in Switzerland folks pay huge prices for everything, but the support staff here get paid 3X what they get paid in the US, a different social compact.  More pay, higher prices, more taxes, better social saftey net, there are some trade-offs and no one country seems to have found the perfect balance, it is more an art than a science.

I used to believe in total free markets, before I learned what an oligarghy looks like.

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:30 | 2671545 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

How's that different than what we are doing?  Very few here are waking up to it.  They keep voting in people that promise more of the same.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:35 | 2671563 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's no different. We are subsidizing them all. Directly and indirectly. I say pull our bases out let them pay for their own defense and maybe some of this silliness will end.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:18 | 2671496 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Thanks....but it turns out I'm not old enough to watch that.

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:17 | 2671492 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

CTRL-ALT-DEL

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:18 | 2671494 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Knight Capital just shit the bed

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:54 | 2671669 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Market Maker Made Mark By Market. Film at 11.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:30 | 2671497 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Great Expectations, expecting a central bwanker to turn this Euro sewage tanker around

looking at all policy options (ummm, print ...errr, not print) take a wild guess..

'Print' is the easy option, for the cabal of broke politicos and bwankers (der 1%) if not the about to be hosed in counterfeit wealth 99%

we don't want Davos Switzerland cancelled as bankers run out of other peoples money and have to stay home and face the music

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:19 | 2671498 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Wish I knew what Draghi's son bought today.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:21 | 2671500 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Mark Grant has gotten quite wound up in a combination of media hype and his own pet theories about Europe ... he writes:

« ... Today may be the most critical meeting, ever, of the European Central Bank ... it is now Germany versus the troubled nations ... »

Ha! Grant's main illusion here, is that Germany is not a 'troubled nation' ... as Reggie M. said on ZH, with the 'penthouse suite at the roach motel' ...

If there is a savage 'crisis' erupting right today and afterwards, it will be just what the EU (and German) leaders are already prepared for as an eventual necessity ... the chance for all to agree to print, to 'save' the German as well as other European banks, insurers and pension funds

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:21 | 2671501 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

The markets are set to rally no matter what he says. They just need some vague hope and confusing statements as an ecuse. 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:21 | 2671502 Itch
Itch's picture

Is he going to make himself look like an idiot? I'm beginning to really doubt that, and he better have some serious bullshit line up if he is.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:21 | 2671503 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

yawn, financial hopium is even sadder to watch than Obama/Romney hopium. Puppets on strings for your entertainment.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:21 | 2671504 Colonel
Colonel's picture

There's bearish and there's Bullshitish. Draghi's talk is the latter.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:26 | 2671522 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

And miserably failed.

Irrational exburence ain't even touching the surface.

CAN I GET ANOTHER 500 ON DJIA PLEASE!

Stuff coming out my mouth but don't know what I say.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:56 | 2671674 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

In this case, "irrational exuberance" is one of the meth-heads from "Breaking Bad" spanking his monkey while it's not even up anymore praying to jesus for one more squirt.

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:27 | 2671530 Börjesson
Börjesson's picture

"... and I fear that anything short of this will now send the markets into a tailspin"

 

 

What's the big deal about sending the markets into a tailspin? Let them spin. Markets go up and markets go down, that's how the world works (or is supposed to work, anyway). It's not Draghi's job (nor Bernanke's) to prop up the markets and help private investors avoid taking losses.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 08:58 | 2671693 GMadScientist
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Easily said, but doubling the already heinous unemployment rate helps whom?!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 10:08 | 2672051 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

But, mien Furher...the offensive cannot begin again. Ze Panzers are out of petrol."

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