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The Incredible Lightness Of Buy-Side Volume
Today's market movement was/is remarkable in its clarity. One glance at this chart and it will become brutally clear that once 1340 was hit, the 'tickle-algo' was triggered and a de minimus volume press on the bid-offer stack limped us all the way back to the day's highs - considerably above VWAP. Whether we see the institutional selling blocks hit now is still undecided but if there was ever any doubt about who is selling and who is buying this chart should clarify...
lower pane is volume (spot the difference) and the light blue line is VWAP - notice that even as ES ripped to the day's highs, it was unable to push VWAP higher...
Chart: Bloomberg
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how can /es go up on 1/4 the volume? i mean it takes 10 volume to go down but only 3 to go up as much?
Cause the system is rigged to the upside.
Only when They want it to go up. They will push it down if there are a lot of stops they want to hit before they turn it around
... the old Billy Preston song, "Nothin from nothin leaves nothin."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_DV54ddNHE
classic.. I wasn't even born yet
beautiful ...
Yes, "they" have way more than enough money to buy any market move they want. So if they'll net profit from a move up or a move down or holding steady, they'll spend some money to make it happen.
"They" have enough money to place bets, sell bets, AND move the market.
Overwhelmingly rigged to provide more and more and more profit to a few people and wipe out everyone else....
Well then, just trade with them and make tons of money too! Ahahah! People who blame their trading losses on the illuminati!
I would, but they never send me the memos before they rip the market...
Ahahah! I hear ya!
Perhaps this has nothing to do with some Illuminati Grandmaster of Evil, and more to do with shortsellers levered 40 to 1. Ahahah!
Funy how Zerohedge reader do not like my suggestion of making money. God forbig they have more dollars to purchase more real assets before a systemic monetary collapse happens! Ahahah! You guys make me crack everytime. At least a couple of them agreed with me on making money.
Blaming someone else for your bad luck is always a losing attitude. If you're still firm in your conviction, you all should only be glad you can add to your positions at this price! Or sell calls, whatever is is you like to do.
Bullshit
It's pretty easy for the bulls to put momentum behind the market, until, well, it isn't.
Let the bulls continue to do the heavy lifting for you.
IF nosellers
THEN marketmovesup()
Shit. You can't even trust Ponzi schemes anymore.
It's worse.
It's capital dislocation from savers and risk averse to the incorporated in the name of "growth." It's name only and rigged is far too kind a phrase to describe.
More like in the name of illusion. Globally the fed must appear in control of the market, as must everyone's CB. Loss of control is loss of confidence. That is the key these days. It become a giant game poker game where everyone is bluffing so nobody can call...
The banksters 'allow' it to go up by not standing in the way
The Bernanke speech algo.
It will revert.
This insane rigged market is really really annoying....i wish something REAL would happen
Market moved up on powerful earnings growth. The Fed augmented gains by keeping deflation at bay and reducing volatility.
Not a rigged market at all.
powerful earnings growth that would have came inunder estimates published a week ago. Lowering the hurdle doesn't mean you did anything spectacular to clear it.
Robo Trader - did you change your screen name to "The Monkey"?
Just a further refinmement on the software version of MDB and "Max Fisher".
I didn't say the fabulous earnings growth would continue; I just said the market moved higher on a positive rate of change for earnings. This is a great set-up for a top, because the earnings story is behind us.
That said, let the bulls do the work for you. With Apple up next, and insiders closed out of the market due to earnings, prices will move higher.
Long until 1390, then start dollar cost averaging shorts expecting it to crawl to 1421. Keep lots of dry powder.
Sell it then! The sell side is tougher; inflation!
I was noticing the same thing. I guess there are no other sellers (except me) and a lot of the shorts covered down below yesterday's low
My should there be volume? Bernanke gave a blah speech where nothing was revealed. Markets reacted negaitively then rebounded.
It should be "On Bernanke's Incredible Lightness of Being ... Fed Chair."
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/17/market-reactions-to-bernankes-report-to-u-s-senate-bernanke-does-e-f-hutton-impression-gold-euro-10-yr-treasury-yields-tank/
The term "Free Market" deserves a place in the comedy Hall of Fame.
Don't worry about short term noise.
We all know the end result, market is trying to shake as many shorts as it can and sucker in some longs in the process before it rips down.
Market is their to hurt the most amount of people, if you believe we are ina recovory, by all means go long, but most know we are in BIG trouble.
Stay patient, they csnt keep this sucker up too much longer.
It's tough. I keep telling myself that the reason it's so hard to stay short is because the banksters want the short positions for themselves. But it's painful.
Shorting is usually futile unless short interest has been completely purged, the market has had 5 too many drinks and headline sentiment is manic bullish.
We still have tons of shorts in this market. They need to be wiped out for prices to move down decisively again. Until then, lot's of fakes until it rips higher taking out the short interest. Probably on new Chinese stimulus and a big Asian rally. The IMF has asked for it.
A good exercise: pair your position to the maximum size that will allow you to still sleep. Hold your short steadfast through the buying capitulation (whatever level that is).
You may come out ahead or behind in the end, but you will benefit from having experienced all the mental stages of a drawdown.
Agreed. Sell even more now!!
Un"bear"able it is!
Clever girl
one thing for sure is that you could go broke trying to short this..
Never short a dull low volume Market.
Volume will pick up with earnings of some of the Bell Weather stocks.
Last night's rally was about China and US possibly doing stimulue. Copper has been denying the China story. SO is ES up on Earnings optimism or do people *really* think Bernanke is ready to blow his wad right now?
All they are looking for is at least a hint that he might be thinking about possibly blowing his wad.
The only thing he'll blow is Obama's.... watch copper as somebody else said in this thread......
Another interpertation (or maybe the same one) is that once the market exahsted the supply of sellers volume plunged and the market rose because fewer sellers were left to push the market down.
I'd love to see the demand side of the curve as the market follows no rational function. VWAP is a mathmatical function to try to determine price, and as you can see, price does what it wants regardless of volume.
I'm trying to decide whether I should be going long on software developers that make trading algos, or manufacturers of drones. Which has more upside long term? They both are very attractive investments right now...
Software developers that make trading algos for drones.
Allow your mind to freely associate with my suggestion.
drones are getting ready to take off
please wall street algos are little more than these.
http://onceuponawin.wordpress.com/2009/08/27/win-pictures-drinking-bird/
a fucking drinking bird and a keyboard. Buy.... buy.......buy......buy.......buy..........buy
Traxis to liquidate Biggs fund -- equity supply is on its way.
Who will absorb Traxis supply at current inflated stock price levels and long-only-fund bozos fully invested?
Great title for an article, Tyler.
BudFox, Ask BLUE HORSHOE and get back to us.
When in doubt, stay out. That is my motto.
I usually day trade but right now with earning of IBM, Goog, Aapl comming up in the next few days, I am staying on the side lines.
I feel like I am losing out on some profits but do not want to get stuck in a Stock ahead of earnings where I could lose a substancial amount of Money if I am on the wrong side of the trade.
I have done well this year and do not want to lose one penny of my profit.
Good idea. And much better than my strategy. I decided to make a very small bet that the market would rally on Bernanke's testimony. That did not work out so wall since I stopped out, and clearly illustrates why you have to have a system and be disciplned abouot sticking to it. It's when you start second guessing the market that you loose.
You may even know something about the earning of IBM Google and Apple, and be tempted to trade on it, but, it's not earnings that matters, it's how much of the earnings are already baked into the market.
It has nothing to do with if earnings are good or bad. The only think that matters is if they beat the "Wall Street ESTIMATES". It depends on if Wall Street wants to pump or dump that particular stock.
I do not use stops. Although, I do watch it all day. Even if the price goes below were I would have had a stop, given time it will always come back for me to get out even or for a small profit.
The other thing is that Stops do not work on earnings when a Stock reports before or after Market. The stop will only get you out at the Market opening price, which could be substancially higher or lower than your stop.
IP = Nokia [last leg], Ericsson [crippled], IDCC [expensive], Rimm [going bust]
ZTE needs IP -- losing badly to APPL
HTC needs help from China, period!
Samsung needs IP -- the more the merrier (QCOM's evolution began and thrived in S. Korea)
APPL lives off the iPhone, but not for long as affordability becomes a strong driver in a weak global economy
*Sure APPL will beat, but...
jmo
Economy dead in the water....yet stocks hover around a few% of all time highs....its all that matters! STAWKS!
cue Momo-tarder bullish commentary in 3...2...1...
15 min ES inverse h&s in place. We're going higher, bitchez.
that is only an inverse h&s in your dreams. this bitches thing makes you guys all sound like a bunch of homos.
Come on, just buy.
The game is rigged and you and me are not in on it. That makes us the mark. Stay awhile from this crap, why bother gambling in a rigged casino.
I'd rather go to a casino. There you get free drinks and there's bells that go off if you guess right. And ... besides ... There are fewer crooks running a casino than Wall Street
But I've got a hot tip.
The South Sea Tulip Co.
Should I go all in ?
Nay, Winston. LAND is the current investment opportunity of our lifetimes. As a Principal in the Mississippi Company, may I interest you in some fine French colonial land in Louisiana ?
Short Squeez .. bitchez
ES 1357 + and we fly!
This is like waiting for monthly retail and auto sales data. You know deep inside that sales are probably propped up by some unseen force (govt spending/govt fudging the numbers) but magically every month the spinsters will start ringing the bell for any modest increase. I now believe that all data is now fudged (share price and volume included). Look at LIBOR and everyone "in the know" knew about it. Most people on this site suspected it. It is a shame when suspicion becomes reality and YAWN!
Nothing will get done politically until we see a 1,500 pt move on the Dow.
No volume until end of August.
Once momo's return, algos go full blast, market drops, credit locks, politicos have to act (too late).
Europe goes tachycardia, market drops another 1,000 pts.
You know how the rest of this story goes.
That's why I'm buying gold, diamonds, dry foodstuffs, water, and guns.
I don't know, look at the week of 7/25/2011. Something happened there.
Get long bitchez.
You cannot short this market......
lol
It's the instane logic of rigged markets. Participants start betting on what the manipulators (the Fed) will do.
Long goat intestines.
or better yet algo nested IF
If = no sellers ramp on no volume,
else
If large vol sellers (ie 6/28 6/29) call Brian Sack with nuclear tipped ES buy
nuke shortsellers and declare no market pad hedgie bonus pool collect campaign contributions
endif
endif
Massive reversal...buy, buy
once all the soon to be in hell bastards own all the debts, they will crash the markets to deep dark levels, where they will buy all, for pennies on the dollar! thereafter, they will announce a new fairer market for all! count on it!
I'm sure the 401(k)'ers and the general ignorant public will really oppose this. Of course it's garbage. But, it's touchy-feely-velvet-comfy garbage.
This isn't going to stop. Ever again.
10 handles....do I hear 20...what about 30. Hell, what about 40?
What an absolute show of strength and utter control. Illegal, yes. Fraud, yes. Corrupt, absolutely.
Now we are at FULL RETARD
ES 1366 Target
Hope you're holding all your funds in TNA overnight.
What part of "zero real returns across all paper asset classes for the next decade" don't you understand?
This is like taking a microscope to a dead, rotting cat carcass. Watching the maggots feed doesn't make it a live cat.
Looky at the REITS...
IYR now busting over $66. Man, you've got to be joking.
Considering the state of the "markets", you would be best served by reducing your long term horizon to a few hours at best.
Good tell TD/ZH.
Thus we took +64% profits on SPY July calls
and are accumulating DIA August puts:
http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/rich-cash-overnight-options.html
look at the bankster stocks, they tell the real story, most are red. The rest is just BS.
Watch aapl, when it drops it will take the market with it
I've got a deep ITM buy/write on AAPL - fingers crossed it shits the bed, but these guys have a habit of crushing estimates time and time again.
uncharted waters with central bank influences. creating huge divergences between sectors within the market. consumer staples eg. KMB, CL, WMT are parabolic or nearly so. Industrials and commodity names and financials can't move.
Will stocks massively outperform gold again today?
Bring on the red arrows .. you guys amuse me. :-)
SP500 still has more upside after today according to elliott wave. When at the end of wave 2, volume should be almost non existent.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/hourly/
What's the deal with all these posts that leave the answer a mystery with assumption that everyone knows what's being talked about?
I guarantee 75% of the readers have NO IDEA how that chart describes who is buying and who is selling.
STOP THE MADNESS TYLER.
I am glad that you just posted this because I was about to put my hand up and say "Please sir, I haven't a clue what this means!"
Have to say it Tyler, but your articles are increasingly only understandable by people who work on Wall Street or in The City, or who are regular traders... there must be plenty of enthusiastic market watchers, like myself, who come here seeking info on how the markets are being allegedly manipulated, etc, but who can't understand what many of the articles mean.
The way I read this is that volume of shares traded is now incredibly low but, despite this, the market is not only NOT crashing, it is remaining high and going up. In other words, it is rigged and appears, allegedly, designed to lure in suckers like Joe Doe Public such as myself?
Dont get too hung up on the vwap
Over the last 90 days the vwap closed at an average of -.01 from the mid price for the day
http://atoast2toast.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/es_intraday_shared2.png