Indian Silver Demand Leads to Supply Issues, Capacity Stretched, Higher Premiums - Asian Bullion Demand Remains Strong

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by GoldCore

Indian Silver Demand Leads to ‘Supply Issues’, Airline Capacity Stretched and Higher Premiums - Asian Bullion Demand Remains Very Strong

Gold is 0.4% higher in US dollars and is trading at USD 1,665.10, EUR 1,263.00 , GBP 1,082.80, JPY 127,651, AUD 1,764.90 and CHF 1,534.90  per ounce. Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,672.00, EUR 1,267.05, GBP 1,086.35 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,660.00, EUR 1,242.51, GBP 1,068.07 per ounce.

Cross Currency Rates

Gold has risen for a fourth day as investors bargain hunt and safe haven buyers continue to accumulate. The flight to cash trade seen recently, due to margin calls and sharp losses in other markets, appears to be over.

Gold’s resilience yesterday and again today despite sharp falls in equity markets on deepening concerns of banking and sovereign contagion is impressive. Physical bullion buyers remain focused on gold’s long term fundamentals and its value as a safe haven asset.

Gold’s short term correlation with equity markets has been seen on many occasions in recent years. What has happened is after an initial correlated sell off where gold falls alongside risk assets, gold recovers faster than other assets and displays an inverse correlation with riskier paper assets over the long term.

We expect to see that happening again on this occasion.

Especially due to massive continuing demand being seen from China, India and across all of Asia including in Vietnam.

Vietnam has seen robust demand for gold for months now but that demand appears to be accelerating as Vietnamese demand surges due to the continuing devaluation of the Vietnamese dong.

Vietnamese gold bullion imports are $1.5 billion so far in 2011 but astonishingly Vietnam imported $600 million worth of gold bullion in September alone, according to a report from the Tien Phong newspaper, citing the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Due to gold’s still strong fundamentals - bullion banks, mints, refiners and dealers remain bullish despite the recent sell off and very few have lowered their price forecasts for Q4 2011 or for 2012.

Credit Suisse have raised their 2012 average gold price estimate to $1,850 from $1,540.

Those continuing to be bearish on gold and misdiagnosing a gold bubble (for a variety of simplistic and ill thought out reasons – see Commentary) are ignoring the deeply held belief in gold as a store of value of some 3 billion people in Asia.

They also ignore the small but growing number of buyers in the western world who are diversifying into gold leading to an increase in allocations to gold from a miniscule base. These buyers include hedge funds, banks, pension funds and most importantly central banks.

These buyers continue to rightly focus on gold’s value rather than its price.


Silver has risen another 0.6% today as buyers continue to buy on this latest sharp dip.


Physical demand for silver remains high and is being reflected in a slight uptick in premiums. GoldCore have seen continuing coin and bar demand and physical buyers are not being deterred by the latest sell off on the COMEX market. Those buying silver continue to expect silver to rise to $50/oz and many expect silver to rise to over $140/oz which is the real record (CPI inflation adjusted) high from 1980.

Demand from western buyers remains minimal as buyers remain a contrarian few with the majority of investors and savers having no allocation to silver whatsoever.

However, this is not the case in Asia where both gold and silver are held in far higher esteem and appreciated for their wealth preservation qualities.

Indian demand has been very significant in months and has accelerated in recent days after the sell off and tentative signs of a bottoming.

 Heightened physical demand for silver from the Indian subcontinent is causing “supply issues” according to UBS this morning. UBS note that airline capacity  to deliver the precious metal is being “stretched” and premiums are unsurprisingly on the rise.

With gold having risen 17% year to date but silver flat so far in 2011, many in Asia are seeing silver as better value at these price levels. Also, many buyers in Asia cannot afford gold at these prices and thus are buying silver instead as silver again fulfills its roles as “poor man’s gold”.

The physical silver market remains tiny vis-à-vis equity, bond and currency markets and even a small increase in allocations to silver could lead to sharply higher prices. As ever buyers should focus on value rather than price and use silver as a wealth preservation tool rather than simply for capital gains.

For the latest news and commentary on financial markets and gold please follow us on Twitter


(BusinessWeek) -- Gold Rises for Second Day as Greek Debt Spurs Demand for Haven

(MarketWatch) -- More physical gold to serve as collateral: CME

(Reuters) -- World stocks tumble on banks' Greece exposure fears

(Reuters) -- Gold to regain glitter, say bankers to the rich

(Mineweb) -- Silver price to average $36.11/oz this year, $39/oz in 2012-TD Securities


(Zero Hedge) -- Is The CME's 150% Hike In Gold Collateral Just A Ploy To Increase Amount Of Legally Confiscatable Gold?

(Congressman Ron Paul) -- Ron Paul: The Fed twists, the market shouts

(King World News) -- London Trader - Physical Demand for Gold has Been Insatiable

(Wall Street Journal) -- A Golden Age For Gold Loses Some of Its Luster

(Financial Times) -- Gold bugs beware – the bubble is finally bursting

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

Goldcore! Where have you been? BTFD I presume?

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Forget gold. Have you seen the discounts on financials and retail stocks!? I've been picking up BARGAINS this week. Congress has proven time and again that they have what it takes to guide us through tough times. The same courage and perseverance that our politicians and Federal Reserve officials demonstrated in the 1930s will serve us well into this economic turmoil. This cycle of crisis followed by courageous resolution by congress and our economic leaders has repeated throughout history, and savvy investors who understand this will be able to profit greatly.

snowball777's picture

Not your best work; it lacks the sheer zany quality of your pro-Krugman posts.

No one will get the inside joke about the future "earnings" of financials.

Fred C Dobbs's picture

Please tell us what you bought, when and at what price.  

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I have a well diversified portfolio consisting of US equities with an emphasis on retail. The returns up untill now have been dissapointing but that's not the point. If history repeats, and congress is able to kickstart this consumer economy by boosting aggregate demand, then I will eventually be a winner. Savvy investors like myself think ahead and plan for the future, and if that means I have to endure constant mocking and insults by arrogant libertarian bullies, then so be it.

Calmyourself's picture

Good stuff, good advice don't let these bears get you down.  Congress has a sterling record of creating demand, jobs and overall economic health.....

Stuck on Zero's picture

To sharpen up your portfolio in core American companies may I recommend Citi, AMR, and Bank of America?

Long-John-Silver's picture

You forgot Netflex (NFLX). It's a bargain right now. /sarc

Whalley World's picture

Hey, you forgot JPM, if ever there was a sterling corporation with ethical management and a well managed hedge book it's JPM.

Hell, they even kicked in a few mill to help the NYPD beat the shit out of all those pesky protesters.

Disclosure: I own mega option contracts March 2012 puts at strike $20.  Already up 75%

Thanks Max Keiser

Smiddywesson's picture

Yes and all of the past stimulus found its way into the pockets of retail customers?  How are retail stocks going to rise with no jobs?

Inquiring libertarian bullies would like to know.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Did you not hear about Obama's new JOBS BILL!? When these nasty republicans finally come around, we will create tens of thousands of jobs with this bill alone. I dare say there are plenty of jobs programs to come following our President's reelection and retail stocks are set to SOAR. This is the most cunning way to play aggregate demand.

mick_richfield's picture

No, MDB.  We haven't heard of that.  Can you tell us more about it?

pupton's picture

"Congress has proven time and again that they have what it takes to guide us through tough times." What planet have you been living on guy???  You sound like a government propagandist shill, do you know that?

You must be part of that 6% that still "approves" of the job Congress is doing.  And the "Jobs Bill" is being held up by nasty Democrats like Harry Reid, not Republicans, because even dirty Harry knows it sucks.  Oh, and it's not going to create any jobs (or save any pretend jobs). It is a tax bill.  The government does not and can not "create" jobs, only take productive money from the private sector and redistribute it toward unproductive waste, regulate and stand in the way.  A real jobs bill would undo the damage done by years of uncertainty resulting from failed Obamanomics, anti-bunsiness propaganda, and abusive over regulation.  Let the market create jobs and STFU.

LudwigVon's picture

tens of thousands


lol !



Black Friday's picture

"returns up untill now have been dissapointing" 

"If history repeats"

"Savvy investors like myself think"



Snidley Whipsnae's picture

MillionDollarBonus... Arrived on planet ZH a couple of weeks ago...After less than rigorous training at 'Troll School For Beginners'...

Evaluation report by overseers: student failing to convince anyone of anything, student has a weak grasp of subject matter, prospects of success as a troll...slim to none.

mick_richfield's picture

I wonder if English is his first language?   Note misspelling of "dissapointing".  OK, that's not proof -- but then the use of ALL CAPS emphasis -- who does that?  Also complete lack of banter /  humor.   A foreigner, or a really old kind of mentally fading sort of in-duh-vidual ?



cynicalskeptic's picture

Bt he did well a few yewars back with Lehman Bros ........   I bet his great-grandfather was sure about Imperial Russian Bonds too.  I mean how much more stable could a country be?


LudwigVon's picture

Idk sounds like Hamy 2 me, I lol'd. I like the posts, ultra sarc, educated.

akak's picture

Yes, he could be HamyWanger, although his syntax and vocabulary are rather more refined and erudite than those of Hamy.

On a side note, I guess the original model for Hamy, good ol' James Kostorhyz, I mean Harry Wanger, finally finished his study on "the psychology of utopian permabears".

Accidental Farmer's picture

Yes; Oh God Yes! Let's trust our Politicians who definitely have our best interest at heart to fix this crisis that is a result of their policies. What we need to fix the problem is more trust in our leaders.

By the way, sounds like you would camp out on the sidewalk over night to give the congress and fed folks rim-jobs.

Change your user name to "Obvious Shill"

Doctor sahab's picture

Lol. Thanks! I needed the levity. Got a busy day with a full office and couple of surgeries today.

DosZap's picture


Your either an agent provcacateur,or a shill/empolyee for the Fed, no one can really be as stupid as your rantings prove.

mick_richfield's picture

Forget what?

You are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!  There are such BUYING OPPORTUNITIES in financials now!  In fact, I expect NOTHING but MORE and BETTER BUYING OPPORTUNITIES in financials FROM HERE ON OUT!


Fuh Querada's picture


Ha Ha.....Urggghhhhh (sound of pork fried rice luncheon being regurgitated).  I can't decide whether you are the court jester here or simply a right royal pain the the ass.

Top_Kill's picture

#OccupyCFTC #OccupyComex #Occupy LBMA #OccupySILVER

Mike2756's picture

Yeah but, at much lower levels. Dollar, bitchez!

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Keep the faith... We will overcome the paper hangers!

Long-John-Silver's picture

One notable Paper Hanger murdered 6 million people before he was overcome.

ubergaster's picture

Interesting info. Would i buy the "dip" based on this info? Frosted hell no!

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Your participation isn't needed... The Asians, Indians and others are buying for you.

Pegasus Muse's picture

Count me as one of those "other".  


October 3, 2011 

London Trader - Physical Demand for Gold has Been Insatiable

With gold above the $1,650 level and silver near $31, a trader out of London told King World News, “The hedge funds I have spoken to were saying they have lost so much money on their stocks, that they were selling the only assets which were in profits and that turned out to be their gold and silver holdings.”  


“They were not happy about taking the only good performing asset they had, in order to offset the losses on their common stocks.  This was done for the purpose of end of the quarter window dressing.  The indication was that they wanted to get back in as soon as possible and we may be seeing some of that reflected in today’s action.

With regards to silver, you are back to commercial short interest levels last seen when silver was trading in the $9 range.  The interesting thing is there was a lot more liquidation after the COT cutoff on silver, so the levels should be even more extreme. 

The commercials have been covering off of the longs, but recently they have also been covering into fresh shorts by speculators and other traders who believe silver will continue to drop.  This is what you normally see after a washout.  Gold and silver will begin to rise with the least amount of people on the long side.

The Asians have been buying like crazy, all through this takedown they have been buying.  We have seen massive premiums and bottlenecks in supply, they simply cannot get enough physical metal as the prices have dropped.  The demand has literally been insatiable.  As I have stated before, the central bank gold, which was used to sell the market down, has gone to vaults in Asia.  That’s a one way trip, it doesn’t come back into the market.... 

“There is also strong demand from India.  If we get a pit close above $1,705, there are a massive amount of shorts that will be tripped up and be forced to cover.  This will give additional impetus to the upside. 

So the Western central banks got together, leased out some gold and the bullion banks sold the gold.  The central bank gold being unloaded by the bullion banks is not to get the best price, but to smash the price.  The smartest way to sell the gold would be to do it in the liquid sessions.  But the pattern during the decline was they were selling it in the overnight session when things are quiet.  This was no different than what we saw at the end of April, beginning of May on that coordinated smash.

You have to ask the question, why would anyone sell at the most illiquid times?  It is not to get the best price, it is to move the market in the direction you want to move it.  The commercials are now competing with funds that are coming in to buy and they are continuing to compete with the physical buyers and those buyers have been accumulating in size during the entire decline since gold dropped below $1,775.

As it stands today, there are an unbelievable amount of physical orders that have not been filled.  Some of the buyers might have believed there would be more downside action.  When gold was briefly down at $1,530, almost no one got any physical gold.  No one was even getting fills at $1,585 on the second and third dip, the orders down there were not filled.  Those physical buyers are watching right now and if they lose patience, they may very well move their orders higher.  If that turns out to be the case, it will put even more pressure to the upside in gold.” 

Chaffinch's picture

Bullionvault silver customers are buying the dip. Their holdings (for a whole load of little guys and gals) are now over 7 million ounces of silver (30th Sep daily audit on their website 228,000 kilos = 7.3 million ounces). On 8th Sep their holdings were 6.7 million ounces - an 8% increase in 3 weeks.
(physical in your hand is the best solution, but in the UK they make you pay 20% VAT on silver, so I am OK taking the risk to let someone else vault it)

Kina's picture

One certain thing in the current world is that there are banksters everywhere corrupting and manipulating markets. I trust they will all legally swing at the end of a rope for treason one day when the people reclaim rule of law, that regulators and authorities refuse to enforce.


They have already lost and now fighting a losing battle. It seems many in the USA have already fingered the banksters/Wall Street as the resident evil of the USA.

Enkidu78's picture

Gold is currently having a massive take down....   I might buy some more!!

Enkidu78's picture

I know I was on the wind up... I have a coin in my shopping basket im just waiting for the best price... Sell that paper Gold you weak heads.

Schmuck Raker's picture

Tyler, "...Airline Capacity Stretched and Higher Premiums" ??

Wanna fix that?

RobotTrader's picture

New lows in GDX/GLD ratio now assured.

SheepDog-One's picture then you at some point SOLD your 'sizable gold portfolio' then? 

Richard Head's picture

He's like those dumbshit newsletter writers that spew 100 different opinions, then take credit for the handful that turned out to be right.

Temporalist's picture

He's worse than that he's Captain Hindsight.

akak's picture

More like Captain Blindsight.

PulauHantu29's picture

You can't eat silver some say.....

EL INDIO's picture

You can't eat toilet paper (cash) either.