This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Industrial Production Misses, Capacity Utilization Declines For First Time Since April 2011
The Schrodinger economy continues to chug along, with another economic data point miss to follow the blistering beats of the various regional Fed indices: Industrial production was unchanged in February after having risen 0.4 percent in January. Expectations were for a 0.4% increase relative to the pre-revision 0.0% change. Instead we got a slow down in expansion. From the Fed: "Previously, industrial production was reported to have been unchanged in January. Manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent in February. Within manufacturing, the index for motor vehicles and parts fell 1.1 percent after jumping 8.6 percent in January, but the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent in February. Production at mines fell 1.2 percent, while the output of utilities was unchanged. At 96.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for February was 4.0 percent above its year-earlier level." In other words, instead of growing in February as previously expected, the economy will now have grown in January. Also Capacity utilization for total industry edged down to 78.7 percent, a rate 1.2 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average. This was the first decline in utilization since April 2011.
Industrial Production - trending lower.
And Cap Utilization: rolling over 1.6% lower than historical average?
»
- 5613 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Good for another 15 fiat vapor meltup points!
my roomate's mom makes $83/hr on the computer. She has been fired from work for 9 months but last month her pay check was $18339 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this web site ..... http://bit.ly/FPPP3j
The dow futures are down 8 pts. Ben needs to float a QE3 rumor quick.
What 'industry'? Bullshit manufacturing? All time highs.
Militarized weaponry. We have some of them there damn Muslims to blow up.
Gotta blow up 'Kony' too, even though he's already dead.
I guess the best war is launched against someone who doesnt even exist...we've always been at war with Eurasia.
Can we call that a secular downturn?
Now that burger flipping is considered "manufacturing" I'd say sell McDonalds.
Industrial production down. Unemployment up. Gas prices up.
Looks like a certain President needs to kill Osama bin Laden again.
That's what the Kony boogeyman is meant to be. Thanks al-CIAduh!
Kony is already dead, its funny now we can fight 'war missions' against a guy everyone in the region says already died a few years ago. Americans are dumb though, theyll believe anything.
Awesome rants on this topic here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=SBto2u8xy90
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=5v7UpNfza4w
Never mind the DOW, that is useless. The only tell in this market is AAPL...and it is down $1.00, Oh my God, what do we do.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/veoTWOZdqHU4.mp3
ECRI’s Achuthan Defends His Prediction for Recession (Audio)March-16-12 8:38 AM
A prediction for a recession? Pretty easy call to make when any jackass can see we're in a real world depression.
We're gonna need another SPR rumor to juice the market
I am starting to think printing money and giving it to banks actually did nothing for the economy except drain wealth from the real economy and give it to Jamie Dimon.
The economy is exploding upwards. The S&P 500 continues upward; capitulation is happening every day, little by little.
Economy 'imploding' upwards I think you meant.
If you consider a stock index 'the economy' just remember the Zimbabwe stock markets were up 50% daily while everyone was starving to death.
a small note sheepdog
AAPL is the Economy!
funny, reading Bloomberg the headline goes something like
BREAKING NEWS Industrial Production in U.S. Little Changed in FebruaryThe Little Engine that Couldn't.
Meanwhile the market is on another low volume meltup. Be very unusual to close red on a friday.
Market don't care. Market don't give a shit. Market just takes what it wants and it wants more printed money.
~Randall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg
No problems here. The next release will beat estimates.
Banks are dumping the 10Y. Guess they are trying to force Ben into LSAP for MBS's as rates are now rising.
It's all good. The Office of Beatification of Dear Leader Obamao released its pre-campaign 'documentary' yesterday to rave reviews. Nowhere in said documentary does it mention falling domestic production, record number of Americans on government assistance, high unemployment, etc., so it must not be true.
Manufacturing is a lagging indicator. It takes two to three months for orders placed to ship. Far longer for big ticket items like heavy machinery, 6 months to a year for that stuff. Or years for things like the Dreamliner. Slowing output means that less orders were placed over the last few months compared to Oct-Dec of last year. That can only mean companies are expecting demand to falter over the coming months.
There was a mad rush to place orders for big ticket items before the end of the year to take advantage of the tax writeoff. The goods didn't need to ship before the end of the year. If you placed an order and put a deposit down, that is good enough. The machin was still bought in 2011. GOVERNMENT STIMULUS CLOUDS ALL DATA. We are heading out of the manufacturing window to take advantage of the tax credit. One of my friends had his best quarter ever at the end of last year selling parts for big ticket machinery. The first quarter of this year has been terrible.
Let's say you owe the government $20k and they say you can buy a $20k car and get a $20k tax credit. What would you do? Even if you didn't need the car you would buy it because youwould have been out $20k no matter what, at least by taking the credit you gt a car essentially for free. All this does is move purchases up and inflate economic numbers, killing future production.
Manufacturers were ordering new equipment even if they didn't need it because they were able to write off the cost. A lot of corporations decided to expand their business into other areas because the equipment was essentially free. A printing company I work with decided to go into packaging and bought a multimillion dollar machine. They don't know anything about that business but it doesn't matter. If it doesn't work out they will just sell the machine and take a huge profit.
why do we keep giving importance to small percentage point changes? Aren't these below the estimation error margin?
It's the same when they give "updates on the markets", cheering and interpreting when they either are up 0.05% or screaming with disbelief when they're down 0.1%, and this is supposed to mean smth... Ten minutes later, things reverse, new explanations emerge or, explain that, the old reasons are used to explain the opposite event
we play this bullshit game, month after month, week after week, even day after day, always using short-term anchoring points fed to us by media, analysts and government bodies, all with their own agenda, and then they conclude for us whether it's a beat or a miss, while next time these small changes are revised and a new again to be revised anchor point is fed to the masses... this is mass manipulation
if the estimated numbers have to be revised time and time again, why not wait for the real data just ONCE, and postpone the release just ONCE!
Meanwhile we are supposed to believe that the numbers have some meaning, because the markets are "responding" - the truths is the markets are manipulated, as they react in completely opposite sense or overreact irrationally to small changes in numbers that are revised orders of magnitude larger to provide a new fake anchor point next time
Overnight pumping of futures had only one purpose: wipe out positions in derivatives, by pushing underlying indices through stops. The overnight and daytime manipulation is performed by the same entities that sell the derivatives to clients, they trade against their clients, as they dispose of detailed information on their long or short positions. Yes, clients know the risks, but they are sitting ducks for the issuers of derivatives. Easy money... and nobody can prove this is insider trading.
I wounder after FED meeting JPM announced it will buy back its own shares after stress tests allowed this. So.. they can borrow from the FED at 0 and buy their own shares to prob up financials. So is this being considered a qasi QE.. Better than the FED goes straight into equities.
seems like Bloomberg became an Apple advertising and marketing outlet, with comparative testing of screen quality, start-up speed and displaying the mania of buyers flying in from Brazil and Swaziland on 1200 dollar plane tickets to New York to buy two iPads...
off topic, probably entirely, the central banks are now the only problem left. In a sense this is fine, they are all doing crazy and unconstitutional stuff. Of course, they need to be stopped and how we do that i don't know - but I have two cents: You take your COAS, Foreign Minister and Agriculture and you fire everybody else. The Police are organized and paid for by local citizens, National Defense is from a flat tax levied, and a not-necessarily interim Bank (of the Revolution) is set up to assume all Banking functions, under the Aegis of both the Military and Civilian govt. with a charter to document everything transparently, and allowed to accept pre-existing accounts upon documentary evidence. -Sec. AG. is to handle logistics and food, should the need arise; while basically, the country is effectively under martial law ...the second concern is the corporate favoritism shown by government to industry, so I would fein expect a binding committment to provision for the separation of legal functions and industrial planning. Although, the current disaster is absolutely a product caused by discarding the principles enshrined within the original US Constitution. If we really are moving towards a New Order, I think it only fair that we work from that Constitution than from what we have now.
- this 'disruption' should then force political debate, that can be organized. noted and then acted upon.
- I had earlier considered that the only possible path out of this morass would be to issue Sovereign Debt against a special account attributed to each indivdual citizen, who each could accrue such interest, with an Ombudsman to regulate this issuance. Where accounts would still be held in Banks and where principle would perhaps be paid into 'social services'. But now I think that Central Banking itself is far, far too dangerous to suffer its continued existence.
- somewhat trivially, bank loans initially originated from the priesthood, in the days when the priests were possibly more literate, and the accounts have been maintained more or less ever since. Finance as it stands displays none of the standards of integrity which the maintainance of those accounts requires; personally, I consider those monies usurped and have no issue with annhilation of that book. As far as it concerns me.
This is bullish, there is spare capacity to make more iCRAP
Bernanke and the Fed are trying to print their way to prosperity again. With the bankster financialization of the economy who needs manufacturing?
Just issue more and more worthless promissory notes to buy whatever we need. As long as countries continue to accept it.
Capacity utilization is the best real-time indicator of the economy I've ever seen.
Just saying...
Look at Cap Util since 1980. ONLY Adm that has not achieved 80% Cap Util since Carter.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/the-glacial-economy-recovery-capacity-utilization-falls-still-below-80/
Shouldn't they include the manufacturing of money out of thin air in this calc? If so, then it would always show a graph that goes up and up and up!