Inital Claims Soar Again, Ninth Consecutive Miss To Expectations In A Row: BLS Back To Propaganda School

Tyler Durden's picture


There are those who thought last week's massive Initial claims miss was the last one. They were wrong. Instead of printing at the expected 370K, an improvement from last week's already big miss of 380K, this week came at a whopping 386K, the worst standalone print in 4 months. Well, until last week's revision that is: instead of the 380K print that stunned everyone, last week's number has now been revised to a massive 388K. Why? So that mainstream media can declare, with a straight face, that this week saw the number of initial claims decline! Here is the reality: last week's expectation was for a print of 355K. Instead we got a number of 380K. Now this number is being revised to 388K, and is the biggest initial expectation to revision miss since early 2011. Needless to say, this means two things: 1) the transitory bump associated with record warm weather, which was nothing but pulling from the future, is now over, and 2) the April NFP print will be another disaster, which is just as the Fed wants it -  after all it is time to start setting the stage for the NEW QE (and certainly not QE3 which is already in place as Jeff Gundlach was so kind to explain) now that Obama is the margin hiker in chief.

The chart below shows the difference between the actual print (revised) and the expectation survey: 9 straight misses in a row.

For those not on the propaganda hopium dole, this is how YTD revisions look like, courtesy of John Lohman:

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Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:47 | 2357760 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Missed it by jissssst that much!


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:46 | 2357767 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture




Hey....don't junk me....I was really rooting for success.


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:00 | 2357832 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Someone’s having a pissy fit today with the down arrows.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:06 | 2357850 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Hysterical temper into this paper bag.


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:18 | 2358382 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I junked you because you care about being junked. Embrace the fact that not everyone is going to like you.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:07 | 2357857 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

obummer hired troll

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:24 | 2357945 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Obama Bin Lyin' hired a troll????

You mean Valerie "Bitch-O-Matic" Jarrett?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:33 | 2357988 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Pair that with a Bass-O-Matic and you've got a wicked combo there.


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2358195 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Let's see now. We're getting more unemployed who will require unemployment benefits. (Good for Obama) And Obama is implementing his new system of paying unemployment benefits to people working. (see Drudge, good for Obama)I'm not working and not collecting benefits, can somebody call the White House and get a check for me. (I'd do it but I'm too lazy)Better yet I'll sell my vote, somebody have his campaign give me a call.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:19 | 2358383 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

It's probably Diane Sawyer. ABC News reported last month the BLS "improvement of 2k!" yes, 2k! The MSM never reports a revised down figure during an Obama election year.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:44 | 2358454 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Brusca takes pride in the quality of those bls numbers - they have been subjected to extensive analysis by really smart and hard working people in working for your government. You could not possibly hope to understand the complexity of this analysis becaue 1) you are not an econartist an 2) you are not Bob Brusca! So stfu and bask in the warmth of bobs care (what smells like piss?)

I suspect that is not even your real name Mr "Colon".

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:10 | 2357866 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

A cock and balls pair from SA.

They will be punished...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:41 | 2358012 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't understand where all these red arrows are coming from.  This is a Get Smart reference, and is pretty funny.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:59 | 2358072 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...Maybe Bobby Brusca created a few more accounts?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:45 | 2358484 mendigo
mendigo's picture

ZH has been hacked!

Quick, hide the gold.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:45 | 2357761 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Futures refuse to fall and trampoline off of the zero line over and over.  Very strange.

CNBC:  It's dissapointing

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | 2357775 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Strange indeed, is it possible these things aren't correlated at all?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | 2357782 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Of course not. The numbers were great!

And our chocolate rations have been increased to 25gr per week.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:04 | 2357852 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The bullshit we see increasing everyday reminds me of the propaganda the former USSR attempted to use shortly before their demise... the leaders then sensed the end was near and the same is true today.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:06 | 2358091 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Do you recall offhand how long did it dragged on after said propaganda started?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:16 | 2358131 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The USSR always employed propaganda tactics to keep their machine going. That said... from eyewitness accounts the heat was turned to 11 in the autumn of 1985.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:18 | 2358355 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

TY sir.

Just took a look at a timeline for the fall of the USSR, and it looks like it was all over by 1993.  So figure Eight years once the serious BS started.

Best as I can tell, our BS getting turned up to 11 started in '05-06 with the housing bubble touting. So your 24 month prediction seems pretty accurate to me.

Gonna plan for longer than that though...  Just in case...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 12:44 | 2358686 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What if you counted 9-11-2001 as the starting point or using lies to go to war in Iraq as the starting point?  Then it's long overdue.

I don't think you can use numbers as a mirror like that because USSR was extremely poor and had terrible political make-up with rampant fraud (the US may be closer to that now but not the same as the USSR), poor investment (and no retail investors) and horrendous infrastructure as well as a small middle class while the U.S. has the opposite.

Oppulence, they (US) has it.  The Soviet space program was still using 1960s technology until 10-20 years ago just as a point of reference.

The point being is the US will have perhaps twice the duration or more who knows.  So with that there will be another 5 years...

Or the Mayans had it right and Kukulcan is on his way before 2012 is up.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 13:49 | 2358718 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

OK, let's say the propaganda JUST NOW got turned up to 11 (because things are starting to get really bad), and the USSA empire has a ways to slide before it collapses.

I'd guess two years on the inside, six on the outside.  Better to plan for six, because if it goes much beyond that, it's the same plan anyway...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:46 | 2357762 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Easter bunny lays stinky egg.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:53 | 2357798 HD
HD's picture

A diet consisting entirely of cheap waxy chocolate a yellow marshmallow peeps will do that...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:45 | 2357763 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

386k official, plus 8-10k adjustment and we're so close to 400K.

bullish because its so bad, right?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:08 | 2357860 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



You got it......down is up....bad is good.


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | 2357764 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

It'll likely get worse.. subprime student loan graduates are entering the labor force only to be slapped with 25% youth unemployment. 


student channel stuffing are clearing.  Lots of jobless youth to add to the BLS stats starting this month.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:53 | 2357794 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

The BS, uh, I mean BLS won't pick up those students since I believe you have to have been employed at a point in order to make the "unemployed" report.  So, they will make the unpublished list ...the one that reflects the massive amount of unemployed persons that BLS ignores.  By the way, I wasn't the one who  junked you...your point is well taken so what dope junked you?!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:22 | 2358398 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Yep, if I understand the BLS methodology correctly, you have to be receiving unemployment benefits and actively looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The unemployed graduates will either be counted as "discouraged workers" or "not in the workforce", i.e. they have decided to retire directly after graduation.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:58 | 2357831 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

DormRoom                 2357764

It'll likely get worse.. subprime student loan graduates are entering the labor force only to be slapped with 25% youth unemployment.



I hear the secret service is hiring. But you have to keep you pants zipped up as well as your lips.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:51 | 2357769 mickd
mickd's picture

I just love that Zerohedge beats the MSM on this report. MSM is reporting pre-market is still up.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:27 | 2358411 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Diane Sawyer will "fix"it  tonight!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | 2357771 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Bob Ueker-ish; "Juuuuuust.....a bit outside", according to the Lame Streamers

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:55 | 2357810 HD
HD's picture

Streaks on the china,
never mattered before,
who cares.

When you dropped kicked your jacket
As you came through the door,
No one glared.

But sometimes things get turned around
And no one’s spared.

All hands look out below T
here’s a change in the status quo.
Gonna need all the help that we can get.

According to our new arrival
Life is more than mere survival
We just might live the good life yet.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | 2357772 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

....and today will be a 100+ point green day

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:48 | 2357774 Chain Gun Smoke
Chain Gun Smoke's picture

Last night before taking my wife out to eat we stopped at this DSW Shoe Warehouse so she could pick up a new pair. While at check-out a guy with maybe 2 pairs of everyday type shoes sprints out the door to the parking lot, setting off the alarm. It's the first I've seen a small crime like that. If jobs don't pick up I'm sure I'll see it again.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:04 | 2357851 Dukepinewood69
Dukepinewood69's picture

odd you said something like that,I walk the dog a few miles every night from about 10p to midnight,whenever I get around to it.Anyway,I was walking down the street in my somewhat nice middle-class neighborhood when from behind me I heard the sound of a large diseal engine.Being so late I thought it odd,it was a wrecker,at first I thought why is someone calling a wrecker at 11p at night? Then I realized that it wasnt for car repair they were repo men.A few minutes later I saw them come out on to the main drag ,pull over,jump out and hook the car up to the lights and whatever they have to do.I ,like you,wonder if I will see more of this on my late night walks.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:23 | 2357922 XitSam
XitSam's picture

It will be interesting if we start seeing car fires set by owners for insurance money as was done in Iceland.

Gun Smoke: Gotta have good shoes when he makes snatch and grab beer runs from 7-11.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:48 | 2357776 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Oops just dropped a big bowl of numbers ill just organize them however.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | 2357777 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Brusca have a Fresca...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:48 | 2357778 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

How is 2012, NOT just a 2011 redux?

Also managing expectations is the only thing that matters relative to actual numbers.

So change expectations and problem solved.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:55 | 2357807 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Agree that after the 'economics' (i.e. printing), all that's left is 'psychology' - i.e. managing expectations and messaging is what matters. But is it getting through to anyone? Not to most people that see past the B(L)S.


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:04 | 2357780 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Here is the reality: last week's expectation was for a print of 355K. Instead we got a number of 380K. Now this number is being revised to 388K, and is the biggest initial expectation to revision miss since early 2011.

Indeed, and even if these always-upward revisions are part of the "normal" data collection process (as posited here a couple days ago), the MSM spin always focuses on the previous, revised higher number vs. the latest, yet to be revised number.

Update: and here it is:

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | 2357781 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

It's 'BLS' pronounced as 'balls'

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:36 | 2357995 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

How could any one go minus on that one?

Tyler... post a list of all the commenters who used the minus on this post...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | 2357783 realtick
realtick's picture

The charts don't lie - Initial Claims are going much higher from here:


Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | 2357788 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Liquidity trap. Money printing to paper over losses, but those with cash hoarding it (both companies and individuals). Resulting inflation is killing lower/mid income. The worse it gets, the harder the CBs try and those with money only hoard more tightly. That's why the NFP numbers suck. Why hire when tomorrow is end of days? Only legit policy tool left is propaganda to make things seem better and hope people spend. After that is confiscation or revolution.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:52 | 2357793 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Tyler,I think you could just print the numbers for the rest of the year.  As you keep saying, carbon copy of last year on just about everything. 

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