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Inital Claims Soar Again, Ninth Consecutive Miss To Expectations In A Row: BLS Back To Propaganda School

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There are those who thought last week's massive Initial claims miss was the last one. They were wrong. Instead of printing at the expected 370K, an improvement from last week's already big miss of 380K, this week came at a whopping 386K, the worst standalone print in 4 months. Well, until last week's revision that is: instead of the 380K print that stunned everyone, last week's number has now been revised to a massive 388K. Why? So that mainstream media can declare, with a straight face, that this week saw the number of initial claims decline! Here is the reality: last week's expectation was for a print of 355K. Instead we got a number of 380K. Now this number is being revised to 388K, and is the biggest initial expectation to revision miss since early 2011. Needless to say, this means two things: 1) the transitory bump associated with record warm weather, which was nothing but pulling from the future, is now over, and 2) the April NFP print will be another disaster, which is just as the Fed wants it -  after all it is time to start setting the stage for the NEW QE (and certainly not QE3 which is already in place as Jeff Gundlach was so kind to explain) now that Obama is the margin hiker in chief.

The chart below shows the difference between the actual print (revised) and the expectation survey: 9 straight misses in a row.

For those not on the propaganda hopium dole, this is how YTD revisions look like, courtesy of John Lohman:

 


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Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Missed it by jissssst that much!

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Hey....don't junk me....I was really rooting for success.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

Someone’s having a pissy fit today with the down arrows.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hysterical temper tantrums.......here.....breathe into this paper bag.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I junked you because you care about being junked. Embrace the fact that not everyone is going to like you.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

obummer hired troll

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Obama Bin Lyin' hired a troll????

You mean Valerie "Bitch-O-Matic" Jarrett?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:33 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Pair that with a Bass-O-Matic and you've got a wicked combo there.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Let's see now. We're getting more unemployed who will require unemployment benefits. (Good for Obama) And Obama is implementing his new system of paying unemployment benefits to people working. (see Drudge, good for Obama)I'm not working and not collecting benefits, can somebody call the White House and get a check for me. (I'd do it but I'm too lazy)Better yet I'll sell my vote, somebody have his campaign give me a call.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

It's probably Diane Sawyer. ABC News reported last month the BLS "improvement of 2k!" yes, 2k! The MSM never reports a revised down figure during an Obama election year.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment mendigo
mendigo's picture

Brusca takes pride in the quality of those bls numbers - they have been subjected to extensive analysis by really smart and hard working people in working for your government. You could not possibly hope to understand the complexity of this analysis becaue 1) you are not an econartist an 2) you are not Bob Brusca! So stfu and bask in the warmth of bobs care (what smells like piss?)

I suspect that is not even your real name Mr "Colon".

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

A cock and balls pair from SA.

They will be punished...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't understand where all these red arrows are coming from.  This is a Get Smart reference, and is pretty funny.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...Maybe Bobby Brusca created a few more accounts?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment mendigo
mendigo's picture

ZH has been hacked!

Quick, hide the gold.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Futures refuse to fall and trampoline off of the zero line over and over.  Very strange.

CNBC:  It's dissapointing

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Strange indeed, is it possible these things aren't correlated at all?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Of course not. The numbers were great!

And our chocolate rations have been increased to 25gr per week.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The bullshit we see increasing everyday reminds me of the propaganda the former USSR attempted to use shortly before their demise... the leaders then sensed the end was near and the same is true today.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Do you recall offhand how long did it dragged on after said propaganda started?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The USSR always employed propaganda tactics to keep their machine going. That said... from eyewitness accounts the heat was turned to 11 in the autumn of 1985.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

TY sir.

Just took a look at a timeline for the fall of the USSR, and it looks like it was all over by 1993.  So figure Eight years once the serious BS started.

Best as I can tell, our BS getting turned up to 11 started in '05-06 with the housing bubble touting. So your 24 month prediction seems pretty accurate to me.

Gonna plan for longer than that though...  Just in case...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What if you counted 9-11-2001 as the starting point or using lies to go to war in Iraq as the starting point?  Then it's long overdue.

I don't think you can use numbers as a mirror like that because USSR was extremely poor and had terrible political make-up with rampant fraud (the US may be closer to that now but not the same as the USSR), poor investment (and no retail investors) and horrendous infrastructure as well as a small middle class while the U.S. has the opposite.

Oppulence, they (US) has it.  The Soviet space program was still using 1960s technology until 10-20 years ago just as a point of reference.

The point being is the US will have perhaps twice the duration or more who knows.  So with that there will be another 5 years...

Or the Mayans had it right and Kukulcan is on his way before 2012 is up.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

OK, let's say the propaganda JUST NOW got turned up to 11 (because things are starting to get really bad), and the USSA empire has a ways to slide before it collapses.

I'd guess two years on the inside, six on the outside.  Better to plan for six, because if it goes much beyond that, it's the same plan anyway...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Easter bunny lays stinky egg.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

A diet consisting entirely of cheap waxy chocolate a yellow marshmallow peeps will do that...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

386k official, plus 8-10k adjustment and we're so close to 400K.

bullish because its so bad, right?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

You got it......down is up....bad is good.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

It'll likely get worse.. subprime student loan graduates are entering the labor force only to be slapped with 25% youth unemployment. 

 

student channel stuffing are clearing.  Lots of jobless youth to add to the BLS stats starting this month.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

The BS, uh, I mean BLS won't pick up those students since I believe you have to have been employed at a point in order to make the "unemployed" report.  So, they will make the unpublished list ...the one that reflects the massive amount of unemployed persons that BLS ignores.  By the way, I wasn't the one who  junked you...your point is well taken so what dope junked you?!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Yep, if I understand the BLS methodology correctly, you have to be receiving unemployment benefits and actively looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The unemployed graduates will either be counted as "discouraged workers" or "not in the workforce", i.e. they have decided to retire directly after graduation.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

DormRoom                 2357764

It'll likely get worse.. subprime student loan graduates are entering the labor force only to be slapped with 25% youth unemployment.

 

Comment:

I hear the secret service is hiring. But you have to keep you pants zipped up as well as your lips.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment mickd
mickd's picture

I just love that Zerohedge beats the MSM on this report. MSM is reporting pre-market is still up.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Diane Sawyer will "fix"it  tonight!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Bob Ueker-ish; "Juuuuuust.....a bit outside", according to the Lame Streamers

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Streaks on the china,
never mattered before,
who cares.

When you dropped kicked your jacket
As you came through the door,
No one glared.

But sometimes things get turned around
And no one’s spared.

All hands look out below T
here’s a change in the status quo.
Gonna need all the help that we can get.

According to our new arrival
Life is more than mere survival
We just might live the good life yet.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

....and today will be a 100+ point green day

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Chain Gun Smoke
Chain Gun Smoke's picture

Last night before taking my wife out to eat we stopped at this DSW Shoe Warehouse so she could pick up a new pair. While at check-out a guy with maybe 2 pairs of everyday type shoes sprints out the door to the parking lot, setting off the alarm. It's the first I've seen a small crime like that. If jobs don't pick up I'm sure I'll see it again.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Dukepinewood69
Dukepinewood69's picture

odd you said something like that,I walk the dog a few miles every night from about 10p to midnight,whenever I get around to it.Anyway,I was walking down the street in my somewhat nice middle-class neighborhood when from behind me I heard the sound of a large diseal engine.Being so late I thought it odd,it was a wrecker,at first I thought why is someone calling a wrecker at 11p at night? Then I realized that it wasnt for car repair they were repo men.A few minutes later I saw them come out on to the main drag ,pull over,jump out and hook the car up to the lights and whatever they have to do.I ,like you,wonder if I will see more of this on my late night walks.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

It will be interesting if we start seeing car fires set by owners for insurance money as was done in Iceland.

Gun Smoke: Gotta have good shoes when he makes snatch and grab beer runs from 7-11.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

Oops just dropped a big bowl of numbers ill just organize them however.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Brusca have a Fresca...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

How is 2012, NOT just a 2011 redux?

Also managing expectations is the only thing that matters relative to actual numbers.

So change expectations and problem solved.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Agree that after the 'economics' (i.e. printing), all that's left is 'psychology' - i.e. managing expectations and messaging is what matters. But is it getting through to anyone? Not to most people that see past the B(L)S.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Here is the reality: last week's expectation was for a print of 355K. Instead we got a number of 380K. Now this number is being revised to 388K, and is the biggest initial expectation to revision miss since early 2011.

Indeed, and even if these always-upward revisions are part of the "normal" data collection process (as posited here a couple days ago), the MSM spin always focuses on the previous, revised higher number vs. the latest, yet to be revised number.

Update: and here it is: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/initial-claims-propaganda-101

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

It's 'BLS' pronounced as 'balls'

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

How could any one go minus on that one?

Tyler... post a list of all the commenters who used the minus on this post...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

The charts don't lie - Initial Claims are going much higher from here:

http://i41.tinypic.com/fenloi.png

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Liquidity trap. Money printing to paper over losses, but those with cash hoarding it (both companies and individuals). Resulting inflation is killing lower/mid income. The worse it gets, the harder the CBs try and those with money only hoard more tightly. That's why the NFP numbers suck. Why hire when tomorrow is end of days? Only legit policy tool left is propaganda to make things seem better and hope people spend. After that is confiscation or revolution.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Tyler,I think you could just print the numbers for the rest of the year.  As you keep saying, carbon copy of last year on just about everything. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

At what point will it dawn on ZHers that capitalism, contrary to the learned mantra, does NOT create jobs? When will the "misses" and the "manipulation of data" be properly sourced to their cause (hint: capitalism)?

FDR's 2nd Bill of Rights, circa 1944, called for guaranteed jobs. It is high time to implement that idea.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Ah yes, the free lunch. 
Always appealing, isn't it?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Where is this 'capitalism' that you speak of?  I live in a socialist command economy paradise, ruled by wise and knowledgable leaders.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Capitalism? Where? Definitely not here in the US. What we have is a sort of hybrid corporatism/fascism that they've tried to disguise as capitalism. In capitalism, failure is part of the process. If we had capitalism, BAC, C, WF and a few other large financial institutions would no longer exist.

No, capitalism and free markets are an illusion. Kind of like our "two party" political system.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

Ha ha, trolls are so cute when they're young.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

What sleeper time warp hole did you crawl out of ?   Monedas  2012   Comedy Jihad Socialist Sleeper Cells

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

how did that guy get in here, guaranteed jobs huh? go make something people want or need then you got a job.

in prison everybody gets a job that model must work for you. I think this guy could land a seat on MSNBC may replace liesman.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

I belileve the reference was to the "The Employment Act of 1946"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employment_Act_of_1946

"it mandated that the federal government do everything in its authority to achieve full employment, which was established as a right guaranteed to the American people."

 

It is still the law...

 

I always thought, as part of the 'pursuit of happiness' business our gubermint is supposed to be supporting, we should have a 'full unemployement act' - with robots doing all the work -looks like we are getting there, just not how I had imagined it as a kid.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

US DOUBLE DIP RECESSION ON THE TABLE AGAIN - QE ROUND THE CORNER

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

why is the symbol AAPL red again?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

That might have been the shortest discussion ever on unemployment numbers on CNBC.  When the April NFP # prints below 50k, at least we will know we are going to get a change in the White House.

 

http://www.nolanchart.com/article9563-obamas-goose-is-cooked.html

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Silly Moose!

The election won't depend on unemployment, or the economy, or the destruction of our country...

It will depend on if voters think eating dog as a child is worse than strapping a dog to the roof of the car as an adult.  There will be the whole campaign, each lying scumbag spending a billion $ saying:  Vote for me!  The other guy's a dog eater.  Versus Vote for me!  The other guy's a dog strapper.   I'm so excited.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I'm pleased with last weeks' revision, I thought it may have hit the 400 level. I guess that's next weeks'.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Obama Bin Lyin' on the Campaign Trail:


Teleprompter: "Barry, say This week we saved eight thousand jobs!"

Barry Soetoro: "This week we saved eight thousand jobs!"

The Teleprompter aka The Useful Idiot Barry Soetoro is of course referring to the week it took B(L)S to revise initial claims up from 380k to 388k...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Created OR saved.......a LOT.

 

Lost OR destroyed.....a SH!TLOAD.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

My favorite was Moody's Analytics comments on the report: "We need more job growth!" Thanks Mr. Obvious!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/19/unemployment-applicat...

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I see Robert Brusca has his students at the junior college hitting the down arrows today.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

ROTFLMAO!!

Funny how there are so many thumbs down today? Huh? Propaganda machine in full force?

Tyler should track the individuals who "thumb down" these posts because they probably all end up tracking back to DC or VA

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

maybe we should be nicer to the spookery trolls bilary sends from foggyBottom;  they don't even write much, any more, most of them

can't storm the fort;  better try to undermine the foundations?

propwashSchool is tough right now;  i tried to get a refresher course in b/c i felt some of the stuff i was making up was ineffective, but i had to take a number just to apply for an application to apply...

if you don't know somebody it's hard to get in and get the loans started...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I think they are still here. They write as "contributors" now. Rubber Balls' writing sure sounds familiar.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Oh yea...Brusca and Lee are sharing a box of Kleenexes today.

Wait, no, probably not. They are concocting ways and pages of rhetoric
to be able to distort the facts! Pathological liars to the end!

Where's Ilene????

"Come on Ilene..."
Poor old Johnny Brusca...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment gibons
gibons's picture

haha bloomberg tried to put the blame on seasonality of this week - even though the same excuse was used last week in multiple articles. Gold finally responded, but I doubt if this spike is enough to break a downward trend. US stocks remarkably strong in this environment, would be a great sign if I was long - but I'm not

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bernanke and the Federal Reserve just keep devaluing the US dollar and squeezing most people through price inflation.

Brilliant plan by the bone head economist from Princeton. You'll have Wall Street and the 1% cooing on QE to infinity but it just makes a bigger bubble to burst on a year or 2.

When this Fed's bubble burst it will be historic. Far more severe than in 2008.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 The weekly preliminary initial claims report is ALWAYS revised upward

because it is based on PRELIMINARY reports from the local offices, and they cannot avoid having some pending  unreported claims being processed.

As long as the final number reported remains about level, or even rising slightly,

the preliminary can be compared to the prior week's final, and advertised as "falling" each week.

e.g.

week 1 -  prelim 347k , later revised to 355k

week 2 - prelim 349k ( a "drop" of 6k!) later revised to 357k

week 3 - prelim 351k (another "drop" of 6k!) later revised to 359k

and so on ...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 OMG

red flagged for pointing out some of the mechanics behind the BLS numbers game ! ?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

There appear to be some seriously math challenged folks on board ZH this morning...

Or maybe facts - as in the many months of truth about the Bureau of Lying Statistics - is a bit too much to handle. It IS weird, though. I mean, that is a short, clear explanation of exactly what has been going on every single damn week this year (last year too).

Get a grip folks - facts is facts.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Those swears you are hearing are from the desk of Charles Biderman when he read this bullshit from the BLS this morning. 

And rememeber BTW, the propaganda that you witness isn't just for Obama's re-election.....its to legitimize that the US economy is on the mend, and that the elections this year will have merit towards this for BOTH sides.  I 100% guaruntee that if Romney wins, he'll pick Bernanke again (unless Ben rejects the offer). 

The Fed is the one who has to prop up the market.  The Fed is the one who benefits from BS propaganda that things are "OK".  And as much as the market wants QE3, especially the big banks, the Fed (I think), doesn't really want it because....they, in the end, *really* don't know whats going to happen once that round of QE3 ends.  Hyperinflation might end up being the BEST of the problems that arise. 

That's the scary part that these Ivy reducated central planning motherfuckers being in charge of the money supply.  Ben Bernanke and his asshole cohorts really don't know what is going to happen......and no one in the White House or in the Chamber of Commerce, wants to admit this.  Hell, even the Fed's biggest detractors can't even admit it!

They all rigged the market for so long, and really don't understand the mathematical consquences in social structures, that arise from favoring money printing and wealth for those at the top. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment mickd
mickd's picture

Existing home sales went down from 4.60M February revised to 4.48M annual rate for March. I wonder how the MSM will spin this to look good.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment pleseus
pleseus's picture

April NFP will be terrible 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

No, no, you silly goose, the magic wands of seasonal adjustments and birth/death model will save the day.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment ehwhytry
ehwhytry's picture

juuuuuuuuuust a bit outside!!!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!