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Initial Claims Beat Expectations For First Time In 2 Months, Prior Revised Worse
It is unclear if today's surprising beat in both ADP and, just released, Initial Claims, is supposed to set the stage for a much better NFP tomorrow, in order to justify the lack of QE, for at least a few more months, and to validate that Fed's ongoing silence even as the BOE, PBOC and ECB have all eased. What is clear is that after 6 weeks of misses, initial claims finally posted a beat, printing at 374K, better than expectations of 385K, and down from last week's 386K print which as always was revised upward to 388K. Those on EUC and Extended Benefits continued to decline with just under 30K dropping off the 99 week cliff. Finally, if indeed it is Bernanke's intention to telegraph that there will be no QE because the economy is, don't laugh, suddenly improving now, the market will be very, very unhappy.
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And gold/silver getting thrashed ... thank you, counterfeiters, for the deep, deep, deep discount.
Well, if the NFP comes out in-line or better, looks like open market purchases will be on the backburner.
Between China, BOE and ECB all being knowns + a positive NFP, not too much headroom left in stocks.
It's time to start looking at those FY 2013 profits.
Oil too...commodities react first to no free moneez comin....last to react are hockey-helmeted equities still playing with cat turds in the sand box.
It's seriously unsafe for us bears to be in the water right now. Wait for them to get done with their silly games and then...
Are you kidding ... they just gave the all clear to go short. The central banks just intervened. By the end of the day this is the gift you've been waiting for if you want to get short this insanity.
Damn right. Went short EOD Tuesday and looking to add to them this morning.
Payrolls coming in above expectations (USD positive) + Euro policy that falls short again (Europe will continue it's descent into recession), negative manufacturing ISM, post-central bank news, post 4th of July, post EOM, post EOH. In the part of the season that must peak into FY 2013 earnings.
Oh, I forgot to mention we're 8.5% off our recent lows following a bullish retracement coming within less than 4% off the top.
Bullish.
Big deal about the reports. Go contrarian to the news. It's manipulated. Big money wants to unload beginning next week. We should hear from GS any day now revising future projections from 1285 to 1400+. When you hear that, mortgage your house and go short! LOL
Crooks.
My IQ can only take so much as a result of bullshit figures which are almost always revised for the worse. Just delay the damn things by a week or two until the real and final figure can be released.
Peter Pan,
Good idea. But we can look at not seasonally adjusted year over year. It's down 58K. If that's close to reality, we probably have to admit that the employment picture could be a lot worse.
Market always happy now. No one left in market to effect it to the downside. Fixed. Revolution starts in August according to IChing.
August is when the upper and lower range bounds for the PMs meet. They have to break up or break down within a month.
Between the rate cut and payroll data, USD is firm.
And this meant a 30USD drop in gold? WTF happened there?
No free moneez comin, simple as that.
But, but... BOE said it would increase their QE program!... Wasn't Europe cutting rates, didn't China just cut rates too? Shouldn't that be bullish for gold?
Its like when you keep smacking the bottom of the Heinz Ketchup Bottle, nothing happens at first, but if you keep hitting it? YOU GET A LOT MORE THAN WHAT YOU BARGAINED FOR!
i know as fact, that the unemployed take summer off to vacation! like, who wants to work in summer?
It's too hot this summer. I only go out at night.
1000% expected by this clown!
The guy putting the numbers up on the futures scoreboard just quit. Up, down, up, down,
Note: deduct that from next month's jobs numbers.
HOORAY QE3 Hopium comin fer sure now! Oh, wait....
Bunch of junkies, COLD TURKEY BITCHEZ.....can I get a hit?
Expect Biderman by the end of the day.
Yay we are saved!
the market may goto risk0ff
but i don't see why here; yes, marioECB has just wiped his ass w/ the euro, but what is fiat for? he's a central (almost) bankster
the poor SNB and and the melancholie danes will hafta print like crazy to dilute their nation's wealth fast enough to 'support' draghi's illusion
however, the checks are in the mail, BiCheZ! which is more than i can say about the grain prices; anybody seen them or is it a schroedinger holiday?
Didn't Riskoff play chess for Russia in the 70's?
On a brighter note, Syrian soldiers destroyed five Turkish cargo trucks yesterday after they strayed into Syrian airspace.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syrian-military-fires-on-turkish-trucks.aspx?pageID=238&nID=24809&NewsCatID=341
Based on this, and 110% accurate labor reports, I am feeling particularly bullish today.
....previous month revised lower.....
EVERY month for 4 years now. LOL
Anyone still watching the commercial for Draghiand the ECB meeting? It is like some soft fuzzy music and it makes all the banksters appear fluffy and mellow..... Some subconscious brain washing by Freemasons.
On the other hand, mortgage applications DROPPED signaling no recovery in the housing market. AND Bloomberg's consumer comfort index dropped too.
Welcome to a Socialist, Centrally-planned recovery!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/05/consumer-discomfort-mortgage-applications-fall-6-67-consumer-comfort-drops/
Have we forgotten so soon all the Unemployments being kicked to the curb?
I don't care for these goddamn reports anymore to be honest.
"Better than expected." "Worse than expected."
By WHO?
By god, they should simply count the beans and say. Aha.. this is the number.
But no. Everyone knows now to wait three months for the quiet revision.
They have never been correct with these reports and always correct, going on for years now.
Which means it's worthless.
Yes worthless.
When you learn that the situation is actually not as bad as some would like to think but worse than others believe it to be.
It's getting very hard to get information without opinions. I long for truth and freedom.
Jobless claims back to Dec 2011 levels. NICE F***ING RECOVERY!!!!
1.7 million unemployed and we care about 14k decline in jobless claims??????
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/05/jobless-claims-fall-to-december-2011-levels-14k-fewer-claims-when-there-are-12-72-million-unemployed/
Employment is too seasonal for that to matter much. Look at NSA YOY.