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Initial Claims Beat Expectations, To Miss Next Week Following Revision

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Same old, same old from the BLS: with initial claims expected to print at 350K, we get a number that is just better, or 348K - supposedly the best since February 2008, however one which will be revised to about 351K next week, hence a miss, in line with the perpetual +3K upward statistical bias each and every week demonstrated by the BLS, which is no longer even funny. To be sure, last week's 351K was just raised to 353K, just so that headlines can announce a 5K drop in claims week over week. Continuing claims printed at 3.352MM, down from an upward revised 3.361MM. And yes, initial claims are lowest since February 2008... Until one adds the continuing claims, EUCs and Extended Claims as seen in the chart below. The 99 week cliff saw a total of 18K drop from total rolls: these are now 1MM lower compared to a year ago.

Combined initial, continuing, EUC and Extended Claims. Not the lowest since February 2008.

 

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Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:46 | 2279976 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

amazing. simply amazing.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:26 | 2280089 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Why is this amazing? They must continue the illusion for as long as possible, knowing that the game is already over... BEnron pulls out his mutually assured destruction card on China and the whole world and says "you better keep taking our money or else!" but very soon that will end and a great war will erupt. A war the world has never seen nor will see again. This is the war Einstein spoke about...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:46 | 2279977 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

kermit the frog

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:47 | 2279979 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Nobody is listening. DWTS is back on.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:01 | 2280016 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

Tyler should start naming articles after celebrities; the sheeple might take notice.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:47 | 2279980 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I am part of the continuing claims number! I feel like I'm a part of something, for once in my life. I'm so happy I could watch "The Soup" all morning.

Here's another pointless continuing claim:

Bullish!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:15 | 2280271 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

And I finally feel like I am part of the recovery. I exhausted my UI last month and helped contribute to the positive spin the continuing claims number! Next goal is to add to tax receipts.....just kidding!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:52 | 2279990 james larson
james larson's picture

Yeah..best in 4 years.  I guess we can ask were we better off before Obama?  I also notice the total measurable workforce (see BLS stats) was 133,010,953 back then as well..before the massive alien abduction of workers.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:57 | 2280004 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I'd like to think I am better off. Thanks to Obama and the federal reserve, my perception of reality has changed for the better. My liver and my children's financial future - not so much.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:07 | 2280029 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Glad the aliens brought you back in one piece. Kinda.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:02 | 2280232 poor fella
poor fella's picture

There's an investment idea in damaged livers! Oooo. Anyone?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:01 | 2279992 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Something tells me the John Galvin@BLS doesn't have the .ZHCLAIMS index prominently displayed on his Bloomberg Launchpad. Could you email it to him?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:54 | 2279997 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

All the 'numbers' being set up nicely for an Obama win.

Expect more fudging, lying, manipulating, perverting, right up until election day...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:08 | 2280252 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

The numbers will not propel Obama to victory.

Everybody knows that things are awful in this country and that crony capitilism won't change anything.

Sound bites won't change anything.

Now, the NY Post says we've supposedly got Jeffrey Immelt (on Obama's economic advisory council) privately telling people he supports Romney because Obama doesn't get it. 

When sociopaths turn against their sociopathic partners in crimes, the current course will not be sustained.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:55 | 2279998 knukles
knukles's picture

Once upon a time, there were some unusual data being released which nobody could rationally explain.  Curiosity got the better of me and so I started examining the seasonals applied thereto, which back then were published.  (May still be for major adjusted data series, I don't know, nor care.)  And what was striking was that for data that would make the economy look better (employment, GDP, etc, up; inflation lower, etc.) whether annualized on an arithmetic or geometric basis, the seasonals did not provide an adjustment (ie the numbers did not result in a neutral result, arithmetic being zero, geometric being 1.0) but provided a net upward or downward bias.

That's not a "seasonal".  That's fudging the numbers under the guise of "a seasonality".

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:57 | 2280007 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

RESIGNATIONS FROM WORLD BANKS, INVESTMENT HOUSES, MONEY FUNDS
http://americankabuki.blogspot.com/p/131-resignations-from-world-banks.html Over 350 and counting!

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:18 | 2280058 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Could it be that some of those people have a conscience?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:03 | 2280011 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

FedEx Will Park Some Planes and Reduce Flight Hours

FedEx is widely considered to be one of the best economic bellweathers there is.

And though the company beat on earnings, the company is falling nearly 2% in the pre-market.

On the call just now, the company says it will "reduce flight hours, and "park some planes" according to headlines on Bloomberg.

It also sees weakness in tech, mobile phones, finance, insurance, and real estate, and it also anticipates below-trend growth.

Not great.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-growth-outlook-2012-3

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:05 | 2280023 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

They're a bellweather on the price of jetfuel. And this is a nice demo of the fundamental difference between FedEx and the USPS...only one gets to idle when delivery is too expensive.

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:01 | 2280017 james larson
james larson's picture

Ive meant to ask you guys about this...we know the BLS numbers simply arent right or the supposed positives arent translating well to other measures like spending/GDP.

Is it possible part of the problem may be the exodus of mexican workers?  That no doubt began near the recession?

What Im getting at is perhaps that number was much larger than stats support.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:03 | 2280019 Xinu
Xinu's picture

BuLShit.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:03 | 2280020 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Am I the only one who thinks that 175k people are just trading jobs every other week?

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:04 | 2280022 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Thought the 99wk got cut to 75 wks now?

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:06 | 2280028 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

Are Centralbanks Buying Gold Secretly?

Confusion about alleged increase in British gold reserves .There were rumours again yesterday that a western central bank had restocked its gold reserves or is planning to do so.


more:

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/9763-are-centralbanks-buying-gold-secretly

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:07 | 2280031 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Welcome to the recovery.
Sincerely, Tim...

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:17 | 2280047 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They may as well stop phonying-up the numbers now, its pointless, no ones paying attention anymore. Fat Bastard Bernankes stock market momo has lost its mojo. 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:18 | 2280057 kralizec
kralizec's picture

BLS...Bullshit, Lies and Scams.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:25 | 2280087 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Central banks and the uber rich Fiati gamesters are quietly hoarding as they suppress prices and spook investors ? Monedas  2012  Unemployed Heritage Staff Hoarder

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:37 | 2280133 devo
devo's picture

The irony of BLS methodolgy is that unemployment figure will be 0 when nobody has a job.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:52 | 2280193 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

BLS numbers would put the remaining 2 workers left at the lone operating McDonalds at a 100% employment rate. Its all meaningless drivel.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:42 | 2280154 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

All Governments numbers are a fraud, like everything else.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:13 | 2280268 poor fella
poor fella's picture

I don't understand all the naysayers here today! If the economy can keep this up for a couple more years, claims will be sub 350k - perhaps 347k!! Levels that show a strong job market.    

 /(do I need to do it)?

The best 'new' new number heard a week back - "We don't think 150k jobs is necessary to keep up with those entering the workforce. With boomers retiring, that number may only be 75k. So the numbers have been looking much better." - wish I remembered who it was. Shove that back at some Big Kahuna like J 'C' Cramer.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 09:52 | 2280196 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Again, it is simple.

BTFD

What part of that do you not understand?  It will always work; until it doesn't.  Big Ben says it will work and for now, my money is on the Benster.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:24 | 2280305 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Initial claims down 40K year over year.  That may be close to the truth.  But it's been close to that figure for some time now.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 10:59 | 2280398 pinqy
pinqy's picture

BLS does NOT release the Unemployment Insurance Claims.  Never have.  That's done by ETA.  Why is it so hard to read a news release and see who is actually putting out a report.  It hurts credibility when you don't even know what source you're quoting.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:54 | 2280566 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

There was a story on the evening news here in Oregon this week that Oregon is about to lose it's federal emergency unemployment extension because unemployment has dropped to 8.8% which is the threshold for which states qualify for that emergency benefits extension.  The BLS and congress and the White House all say this is GREAT news that unemployment has dropped so far.  A lot of people who are still unemployed will suddenly be cut off of unemployment because of this loss of federal support.

If, big if, our unemployment rate dropped to 8.8% because unemployed people were actually getting jobs this would not be a problem.  But, the reality is that the unemployment rate here has dropped to 8.8% because of long-term unemployed people exhausting all benefits and thus being dropped from those counted in the labor pool, smaller pool = lower rate of unemployment and fewer beneficiaries collecting. 

I am sure your state has something of the same going on, once the federal emergency extension is withdrawn that many more thousands will be no longer counted, kicked out of the labor pool as well and we will see a yet lower rate for a big one time downtick in unemployment just as we are about to vote in the primaries.  (May 15).

But here is a fact, January 2012 nonfarm payroll employed residents in Oregon were 1,623,200 and in February 1,616,800.  Jobs are still being LOST not added.  That means that the GAMES go on without pause over at BLS and in the Barry S. White House. 

 

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/CES?areacode=41010000001&action=rs54&submit=Continue

 

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 13:25 | 2280915 ClevelandJanelle6
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