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Initial Claims Beat Expectations, With Prior Revised Higher, As Whopping 105 Thousand Lose Extended Benefits
While it is a number which nobody will care about today, especially if it is better than expected, initial claims printed at 377K on expectations of 378K, the first beat of expectations in 5 weeks. Of course, the claims number next week will be revised to over 380K. Why? Because, as now happens every single week, last week's initial claims number was revised higher from 383K to 389K. As a reminder, last week this number was expected to print at 370K. So only a 19K miss when all is said and done. But at least the mainstream media has its bullish for general consumption headline: "Initial Claims drop by 12,000" even as market participants realize this is still QE-promoting. Continuing claims printed at 3,293K, missing expectations of 3,250K, and down from an upward, of course, revised 3,259K. But the most disturbing observation is that in one week alone, a whopping 104,600 people hit the 99-week cliff, and stopped collecting extended unemployment benefits, the most since December 2011, as those on EUCs dropped by -45,808 while those on Extended benefits dropped by a astounding -58,829. As a reminder, Zero Hedge first noted that shortly 700,000 people will no longer be collecting any unemployment benefits. Here is to hoping those off the dole, are at least collecting disability in the USSA as otherwise these are tens of billions in lost purchasing power.
Note the surge in those dropping off extended claims:
Finally, as per John Lohman, here is the headline and revised change in initial claims Year To Date. No comment needed:
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fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud,
fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud,
wonderful fraud, wonderful fraud
o fraud wonderful fraud!
(spam song)!
Bring on the Bernanker. Ctrl - P or get off the stage.
When 700,000 people fall off the list, that is a lot of angry/hungry people who will vote for "the other guy".
Who are you kidding?
Come October the message is going to be, the other guy wants you to work like you had to do before I took office, do you really want to go back to those days?
Agreed. The Obama spin will be "if the do-nothing Republican Congress had enacted my Jobs Bill/Transportation Bill/$3000 Thingamajig Bill when I told them to, we would have saved or created 3 million new, high-paying jobs in green energy, education, and healthcare. Instead, the Republicans spent that money on tax cuts for the rich"
And, a depressingly large percentage of the voting population will nod their heads and agree.
Look for SSA Disability applications to increase substantially.
According to Alexa, 90% of visitors to the Ssa.gov website come from the US, where it has attained a traffic rank of 792, which is up from over 1200, and the site is particularly highly ranked in the cities of Houston (#612) and Denver (#672). Compared with the overall internet population, Ssa.gov's audience tends to be Caucasian; it also appeals more to higher-income women over the age of 45 who have attended college and browse from home. Visitors to the site view 4.8 unique pages each day on average.
"I'll have fraud, fraud, eggs, fraud, bacon, fraud, fraud and fraud"
"bacon is off"
"Can I have fraud instead?"
"What, you mean fraud, fraud, eggs, fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud and fraud?"
"I DON'T LIKE FRAUD!!!"
Sshh, dear, don't cause a fuss. I'll have your fraud, I love it. I'm having fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud beaked beans fraud fraud and fraud!
cue the vikings
Does this count the Detroit crack dealers or are they not in the labor pool?
It depends on whether they're "serving" from a Wienerschnitzel drive-through or an actual corner. Please see the inter-office bulletin.
The Detroit crack dealers' customers are leaving town, I don't think there should be conditions like that set in an economy like this. It shows there are too many laws and too many lawyers.
Only if they are asked in the BLS survey
The unemployment rate (or rates) is calculated by a monthly survey of 60,000 households, covering 110,000 people and more than 2,000 separate regional areas.
The survey asks dozens of questions, but the two most important for determining the unemployment rate are: Did you work for pay or profit last week? If no, have you been doing anything to find work during the last four weeks? If yes, you're unemployed. End of story. It has nothing to do with unemployment benefits.
That Jim Grant interview with Fartiroma yesterday was fantastic. Funny I don't see it anywhere on their stupid site to replay it with the rest of their crap. I also don't see them replaying Cramer telling me to buy lulu pre earnings because cotton came down.
Do Lulu clothes even contain cotton?
They're made from recycled child laborers.
Deflation of middle class. Inflation of FED class.
@LongSoupLine
Yellen's comments last night included a statement about how the Fed's low interest rates have kept equity valuation high. They don't even attempt to hide it.
I'm viewing the situation as 105,000 future militia members with nothing to lose now.
I just hope all these unemployed dont tip over the disability life boat.
Okay. First crippled children, then crippled women, then non-crippled children, then non-crippled women, then crippled men, then non-crippled men. In orderly fashion please.
GMadScientist
What is an Indian beggar convention buffet?
Indie Hindi Shindig? ;)
+1
Does getting your face eaten off qualify you for disability? Rapid rise occuring...
It really would be cool to get visibility on "under the table" employment in the US.
Impossible, true, but think how an accurate accounting of that one factor would change your view of the economy as a whole.
And, my tired refrain: it's not number of jobs but aggregate income which can go down even while BLS UE improves without actual growth taking place.
That would be....tens of billions less printing. Not even a rounding error.
Laser focus is now a 3 watt flashlight.
And it has to be an LED flashlight
... all made in China.
"a whopping 104,600 people hit the 99-week cliff, and stopped collecting extended unemployment benefits, the most since December 2011"
they will all get on the disability suppliment.....and that NEVER ends
Is it a good time to start a business selling pitchforks and hand-held torches yet?
youngman
Asshole, it is hard to collect SSD.
Initial claims are almost always denied. Then there is over a year wait, the courts are well backlogged.
You get examined by SSD docs and you need your own docs records.
You need an attorney, becaus the system is designed that attorneys tend to have some type of relationship with the corut. Meaning that if an attorney takes your case, since they don't really fight anymore, you are likely truly disabled in the courts eyes.
An attorney takes about a quarter of past due monies.
Afterward SSD pays only a percentage of what you received while working, and that alone is based on your last year or two of income not lifetime.
In other words SSD is a big goddamned hit in the fucking pocketbook for those who can not work even though they want to.
45% of all vets are applying for SSD.
Do you think they are scamming the system?
Just because someone LOOKS like they can work doesn't mean you have any insight on the level of pain they are in or the amount of meds they require everyday to just get by.
GF, it is not hard to collect SSD, but it might be time consuming. But for low-lifes, with nothing else to do, time is what they've got lots of.
I have had 3 people in the last few months ask me to pay them under the table (which I won't do - evrybody should be put through the government meat grinder) so that they could collect SSD and still work. These people WERE FINE! They were exactly the types you would expect to scam the system.
We have a neighbor who is on SSD. Nothing wrong with him. He does odd jobs for cash running a small handiman business. And, oh yea, he qualifies for home heating oil subsidy and food stamps.
Hard indeed...
Needing a lawyer is part of the scam (the legal system getting its cut). And just because it's hard to get SSDI and just because you need to pay a laywer doesn't mean that a large part of SSDI claims, especially those of the past few years, aren't fraudulent. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. Something like 40% of recent claims are for mental conditions such as depression, which conveniently can't be identified physically by medical tests.
Surprise, bitchez!
Welfare rolls, disability rolls never decrease....they are an every growing heap at the bottom of the "cliff" ! They want us to believe that suddenly 104K will lose their income....their benefits will probably increase as they now qualify for the whole package of benefits ! Monedas 1929 Don't forget the universae of perverse outright grants !
Avoid large population centers--or rather, people in general, and the end won't be so bad.
Just chill and watch it all come down. You only really need to worry if you're embedded deep into sheeple territory.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wctt1rkJJZ0
And dont forget to travel light and have allot of tree cover as to not be spotted by spy drones
Monedas
I understand everyone here loves to rag on benefits, until themselves or a family member need them. Then the reality sets in.
Whatever bullshit people have been espousing here, state and federal benefits are BARELY survival.
Got it, BARELY enough to get by on.
I suggest you idiot fucks quit viewing the world through the Republican Welfare queen mantra and take a good long look at those on benefits and their lifestyles.
Because your cracker ass might be next.
Then the pissing and moaning will begin.
You are right on, receiving 1000-1500 a month is bare bones but when the Govt. defaults think of all the unhappy people that will receive 0
I am assuming by barely enough to get by, you mean HD cable tv with at least 1 premium channel, cell phone with unlimited data, home internet, 2 cars, .....
The other thing that the unemployed don't do besides not working is that they don't volunteer to do anything. My wife and I both work. The kids' school are begging for volunteers for end of year activities. My wife and I take turns taking a day off from our jobs to help out. You know who else is there, all employed people, that want/need to take a day out of work to clear their heads and be with their kids. You know who isn't there, the f-ing unemployed because everyone owes them something and they don't owe anyone else a thing and besides they might miss the View or some Kardashing crap show.
SSDD
Small gain, continuing claims increase. But remember, since June 2010, 2 mill have gone on liability, 5.2 million on foodstamps while less than 2million left unemployment rolls.
So ijc are cooked.
HTTP://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
Gold bitchez, wait until at 10am, the Ben doesnt say anything and the algo is launched to break gold back to below $1,600, where it belongs!
370,000 give or take 100,000
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/05/31/3-misconceptions-about-the-jobs-r...
No more money for unemployed ppl? THAT won't be good for iCrap and McStuff sales.
I wish someone would do a report on how much of Govt UI cash to the unemployed is shuttled towards paying off mortgages/credit cards/bank fees.
My number would be 40%. Which is 40% too high.
In an unrelated story, SSI disability claims unexpectedly jumped by 105,000 this week.
His outlook for housing wasn't any prettier.
Predicting that we have another four years until the market absorbs all the excess housing supply, he said that Americans have finally reached an important realization that could change their views on homeownership in the future.
"People now realize, for the first time since 1937, that house prices can and do fall," Shilling said.
"The next event to watch is what happens in the next few quarters," he continued, arguing that major banks and the government "did not want the bad PR of a big wave of foreclosures" while they were mediating an end to the robo-signing crisis. "Now they're [foreclosures] going to come back with a vengeance," he predicted.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-the-sp-500-will-fall-to-800-this-year-2012-6?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Money%20Game%20Select&utm_campaign=MoneyGame%20Select%202012-06-07#ixzz1x7DGsoAxWhen I lost my job I hadn't worked long enough to be eligible for unemployment benefits, so they need to appreciate those 99 weeks. Probably going to have to sell my car soon to cover my monthly expenses. One year, three months and counting.
Sorry to hear about your situation, but selling your car is a smart thing to do under your situation. It's expensive to own and operate a car. Insurance alone will cost you $1000 or more a year. Hopefully there is public transit where you live.
No public transport, but there are parents. I think my parents finally understand how bad the job market is, especially when they talk with friends and people their age whose kids are either unemployed, living at home, or both.
YOY claims down 45K. Same old, same old.
Maybe one should worry more about the Federal Government. The 104k off the compensation roles mostly just means 104k more people growing dope. It's the tax base that's really taking the hit.
"Beating expectations", all
the
way
down.
Same as it ever was.
Yes, LOP, the MSM is orgasming the decline in initial claims all the way up to 400k.
I had trouble figuring out if they were doing it on purpose as a coverup or if they were just stupid. Watching the MSM clips here on ZH, I think they're just too stupid to figure it out.
As i said before. See mortgae defaults sour now that people are off unemployment.
Even the BLS cautions againt any optimism in the report because of the fact that it was a four day week...
In the holiday shortened June 2 week and following a sizable 6,000 upward revision to the prior week, initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to a slightly better-than-expected level of 377,000.