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Initial Claims Beats By Multiple Standard Deviations As BLS Revisions Jump Again

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We grow weary of reporting the consistent statistical anomaly that is the prior revision UP in the initial jobless claims. Headlines will read of the impressive job 'improving' situation as initial claims fell 37k on the week (a two standard deviation improvement which seems extremely unlikely given the macro/micro backdrop). Once again proving their ineptitude, the claims print was massively better than even the most optimistic economist estimate - an incredible six standard deviations better than consensus. This is the lowest initial claims print since April 1st (ironic really) and only the second time below 400k in the last 25 weeks - though for a moment we must have some hope that this is a trend as ES pops 10pts.

UPDATE: Via Bloomberg (we couldn't resist) from TD Securities' Eric Green: "If its too good to believe, it probably is, and the BLS says as much"

Week-over-week change in initial claims (SA) showing the flip-flopping oscillation and extreme nature of this print (and note previous reactions to such extreme prints).

 

And our experts said:

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:46 | 1721528 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Steve (Lies)man was just found breathing into paper bag and masturbating.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:52 | 1721563 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

only hope is if he has a belt around his neck and his fat fingers cannot undo in time.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:58 | 1721586 ratso
ratso's picture

I think that it has now become an established fact that only bad news can be true.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:54 | 1721568 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

That is funny- I realty didn't think he could find his dick!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:07 | 1722240 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

That's why he keeps John Harwood around.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:47 | 1721530 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

spin this ZH

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:48 | 1721541 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Why don't you sit & spin on this

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:54 | 1721556 buzzsaw99
Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:02 | 1721578 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

When will July2011 numbers pop up? Monday?

EDIT: the linked report there to fns has June2011 as last numbers (thru all states - increasing)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:07 | 1721610 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

There seems to be about a two month delay so maybe it is overdue?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:08 | 1721616 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Delayed for a"sigma 3" reason? :)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1721641 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Delayed for :cue rally monkey:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:17 | 1721657 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

LMAO!  Needink wipe monitor once again.

Hint: dont click on youtube links from ZH while drinking :)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:23 | 1721675 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Your "hint" was a more important clarification than you might realize.  Wasn't sure what you were fessin' up to for a minute there...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:14 | 1721646 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

chill guys I was just joking

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:24 | 1721681 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Well, you hit -21 on the down before you re-posted.  That's a 5-minute major and a game misconduct.  :D

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:28 | 1721695 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

I guess the only green arrow I got was from million dollar bonus guy

Plus trolling is the only way to get you guys to explain stuff

peace out

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:10 | 1721796 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

Hey I thouhght you were funny.  Stick to your guns, man!  Posts to this blog have become all about singing in unison and using the same language (unicorns, hopium, banksters, PM) to convince each other they're right.  It's become like the opposite of CNBC... or the same, just for bears and gold bugs.  Any miss to the downside is embraced as vindication of precience.  Any miss ot the upside is conspiracy.  

Now, watch how I get slammed.  Predictable.  Predictable.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:16 | 1721813 fuu
fuu's picture

Wait for it...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:19 | 1721819 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

He didn't have any guns.  That's why he capitulated to reality.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1721601 Cynical Sidney
Cynical Sidney's picture

it's statistical revisionism: pick a number that most suits your interest, work backwards to come up with a formula.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1721602 Popo
Popo's picture

So I guess we won't be needing anymore stimulus then?   Oh wait.. Bernanke *just* said we probably need more.

Does. not. compute...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:10 | 1721622 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

spin this ZH

No spin needed. We know it will be revised upwards, and the release itself indicates "technical" anomalies in the seasonal adjustment.

But set that all aside, ye light-minded "wizard," A 391K print of initial jobless claims is putrid.  The MSM now states that claims "below 375K" is indicative of stable employment...Problem is that in March, they were saying that "below 350K" was indicative of stable employment and in December 2010 they were saying "below 300K." 

If you are paying attention, you recognize this as another body blow to the dismal situation.  I'm guessing your attention span doesn't break 2 minutes apart from snappin' the radish in your sister's closet.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:14 | 1721648 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Consider who owns the MSM. People like Rupert Murdoch WANT the stock market to get pumped. He gets richer.

The "number" that represents stable employment has been tweaked higher and higher over the years. It is a shameless spin job from the whoremasters.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1721664 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Maybe, but I think the MSM just prints what the White House tainted BLS press release says.  If you read the immediate prints that come out at 8:31am EDT, there is almost no editing going on.  I think the market gives the stuff about a 15 minute half life, then returns to "important" things like the Eurocircus and whose face is going to go on the US $1 Trillion bill.  So I think the 'vested interest' folks here are the ones in the administration looking for sound bites on the Barry bus tour.

My 2 cents...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:28 | 1721694 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

An example of the spin I am referring to is the endless positive prattle in the AP release after the weekly BLS data is reported. I can't remember when there wasn't some sort of positive spin attempted re. the BLS data.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:35 | 1721711 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Agreed.  I'm just suggesting that the spinners are in the tank for the prez, not the stock lords.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:43 | 1721736 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I can believe that. Looks like they have their work cut out for them to get this clown elected again.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:10 | 1721629 fuu
fuu's picture

Ok I will give it a try:

 

99 weeks ago today was  11/05/2009
Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:21 | 1721672 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Taking a breather from Obama's crotch?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:22 | 1721673 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Wait until the "sue everyone 'cause i'm unemployed" jobs bill kicks in!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:30 | 1721700 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im sure CNBC will have on some CEO's today who have hired 500 people in the last month to describe how the economy is ramping up everywhere. Yea right.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:38 | 1721719 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Here, maybe I can help spin it.  IF YOU BELIEVE ANY DATA THAT COMES VIA THE US GOVERMENT, YOU ARE OUT OF YOUR FUCKIN MIND!  Hope that helps!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:47 | 1721535 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Is there any doubt that next week's revisions will revise claims over 400k? I think not. Another bullshit number to increase the hope that unemployment is recovering.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:47 | 1721536 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Awesome.  This means the Bernank will print mor...wait, shit.  Back to shorting silver.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:47 | 1721539 The Axe
The Axe's picture

BLS need claim  some seasonal issues.....lol

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:14 | 1721649 citrine
citrine's picture

THey did.     

Department official said government statisticians had problems seasonally adjusting the data.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:23 | 1721677 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Must have been their snow day.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:33 | 1721706 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

'government statisticians.' 

I'm picturing a room full of Rick Moranis-from-Ghostbusters clones.  Short-sleeved, check shirts, $9 shoes over tube socks, balled-up handkerchiefs in front pockets, pencil sharpeners in every cubical, reams and reams of 11x18 'documents' marked DRAFT, walls of multi-colored push-pins, posters of abacusses, Rubik's cube paperweights, ....

Sorry - I got carried away.  :D

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:51 | 1721761 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Gozer the Traveler. He will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the traveler came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrick supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor! Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:47 | 1721540 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

Wonder what the birth/death adjustment was on this anomaly.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:03 | 1721590 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

I think they only bring out the big B/D-A gun for monthly data.  For weekly claims they just pick a number 'above expectations', without quite so much fol-de-rol.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:48 | 1721543 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

Even 390+ (pre-revision) is a horribly shitty number.  To hell with expectations, look at what is actually happening.  The job market is a slaughterhouse.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:04 | 1721599 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"Been down so long, it looks like up to me"

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:14 | 1721643 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Snowball...trust you're runnin' down a new avatar.  We need to be able to spot you quickly on those left-right rant posts.   :D

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:12 | 1721802 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Weird. I'd swapped it a couple days ago after getting tired of 'splaining that I didn't attend Berkeley for the fifteenth time (you people...so literal).

We'll see if it sticks this time.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:30 | 1722266 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Bearish- so it'll stick here.

BTW- 31-23, last Saturday.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:48 | 1721544 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

of course these are lies. bls is playing a game with itself where it plays a sound track for the laugh line, only nobody is laughing.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:39 | 1721866 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

BULLSHIT.

Why don't they stop revising it and just print the real number? Oh... yeah, forgot about that.

123902193019230913K

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:34 | 1722286 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Move along, there's nothing to see here... there are no Real numbers.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:48 | 1721545 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Experts, bitchez!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:49 | 1721547 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Total BS. Anyway we'll see the REAL numbers next week.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1721663 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

No, you'll see revised numbers next week. You'll never see the REAL numbers.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:49 | 1721548 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

oh my god we heading for a boom time to sell my smelly shorts

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:50 | 1721549 Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture
US March 2011 total non-farms payrolls benchmark revised by +192K, previous reading: -378K

What about this? They revised it up a lot?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:50 | 1721552 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Can we, at least, have Bagdad Bob lay out these numbers for us over national TV?

I mean, please, throw me a bone and class this up a bit.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:50 | 1721553 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Is this what's known as 'jumping the shark'?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:52 | 1721561 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Anyone think this was due to end of Month window dressing to help Fund Managers out?  Then they will revise it down again next Month.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:55 | 1721572 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yep.  But I think QE6 rumors would have worked better (lasted through tomorrow).

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:59 | 1721588 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Ding, Ding, Ding!!

Tyler, Give Waterfallsparkles a prize for best "undercurrent corruption tactics" recognition!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:09 | 1721627 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I like the way you talk. [/slingblade]

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:52 | 1721562 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Greece saved again for the 45th time this month, BLS throws out some cooked numbers, Dow + 500 today.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1721645 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Excellent time to establish some short positions at the open. I love these monster bullshit openings.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:28 | 1721692 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Amen.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:52 | 1721564 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

At this point UE numbers are only for the folks on Wall Street. The unemployed already know their screwed, they've been looking for work for months, Main Street doesn't even care about the movement in the DOW and the numbers coming from the BLS. This is purley a tool for Wall Street, nothing more. The next factors we'll be looking at is the "imagination index" where unicorn and rainbow thoughts are bullish.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:53 | 1721565 Pig Brotha
Pig Brotha's picture

Another great call by the "experts", a fuckin chimp could do better

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1721632 fuu
fuu's picture

Hey now.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:21 | 1721671 Pig Brotha
Pig Brotha's picture

Sorry fuu, actually I would prefer chimps driving this bus instead of the current crop of waste's of sperm

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:17 | 1721721 fuu
fuu's picture

Someone else will have to drive, I'm ridin' shotgun.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 23:30 | 1724736 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Jr. Walker

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:55 | 1721571 goldinpenguin
goldinpenguin's picture

BLS pretty much admits the number is incorrect even as it releases it. I'm really surprised thay admitted probs with the seasonal adjustment before we get a really big worser adjustment next week. These weekly numbers are fundamentally unreliable

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:56 | 1721577 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

EPJ has been calling a M3 fueled 'small bubble' recovery for quite sometime. Who the F knows? Every player in the system wants a kick at the can. I'm as much a bear as you'll ever find but the fact is this zombie is still thrashing and NOBODY can know when it stops.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:58 | 1721579 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Yeah and claims aren't being manipulated.....right :   http://displacedema.blogspot.com/2011/09/are-weekly-claims-being-manipulated.html

 

Look at that chart and you tell me.  It's like a company playing with the numbers on the balance sheet andincome statement all year long, and then they get real in December.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:58 | 1721585 optimator
optimator's picture

We'll be fully recoved when there are NO jobs lost for a week and Lies Man will have on air apoplexey!  Who will give the details that EVERYONE was out of a job the prior week (and working under the table).

"They say alchohol and gasoline don't mix.  I tried it and it makes a pretty good drink"

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:59 | 1721587 Ray745
Ray745's picture

According to the state by state data in the unemployment report, it appears to be mathematically impossible for the claims to have decreased.  In the 9 worst states the claims increased by 19,099, and in the 5 best (including PR) the claims decreased by 2,961.  The fifth best state saw a decrease of 423.  So if you assume that every single other state was right behind the 5th best with a decrease of 422, that still gives you a 51 state (with PR) total of an increase in claims of 524.  And it's not the seasonal adjustment because the NSA number saw a 28,800 decrease.  Is this whole report just one giant mistake?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:34 | 1721709 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

No, not one giant mistake - one giant farce. The rabbit hole is a lot deeper than most are willing to believe. In short, if my scholastic performance is predicated on getting A's on the test, and I get to not only collect and score the tests, but also determine what questions go on them and what qualifies for a A, what type of behavior will said school be encouraging? Rigorous academic introspection and education? Or self-affirming circle jerk of delusion?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:39 | 1721723 Ray745
Ray745's picture

Nevermind, they give state data for only the prior week, which they don't really make very clear on the report since the report is for the current week.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 08:59 | 1721589 kito
kito's picture

todays report--another reason you will never see qe3

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:04 | 1721600 fdisk
fdisk's picture

Kito, you think it's mathematically possible to have tens of

Trillions in Debt and survive without printing? Perhaps, while

Yield are so low, it's somewhat helps, but in the long run?

No QE? I don't think so.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:07 | 1721609 kito
kito's picture

who said anything about surviving?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:06 | 1721607 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You think the Fed gives a shit about employment. That's cute.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:22 | 1721674 kito
kito's picture

the fed gives a shit about itself and the dollar and the power it yields around the world, in conjunction with other central banks. the fed knows printing at this stage is a surefire way to fiat death. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:44 | 1721882 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

They probably should have thought about that before they increased the monetary base more in 3 years than they have the past 100.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:01 | 1721594 fdisk
fdisk's picture

Heh, ones Data beats Expectation, ZH-rs turn into denial mode.

Tragedy, Market is up again :))) Time to take some ZH Zoloft :)))

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1721605 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Definitly this is great news, now is the best time to buy a house.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1721642 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes fdisk this report means all is well, you should buy stocks today.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:18 | 1721814 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

fdisk, 

But ZH-ers don't change their minds.  They know one thing and one thing only... and assume all data that doesn't conform is conspiracy.   These are the same exact posts that were put on this site in August of 2010.  The blind faithful will be screaming for collapse and ammmunition no matter what.

Now, watch the slamming I get from the fathful.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:02 | 1721596 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I was looking to add to my shorts. Thanks, BLS!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1721639 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

How much, at what point, what expiration date. So many questions!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:20 | 1721822 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Not even puts...straight up SDS...unimpressive amounts, this is my pocket change after all.

Looks like I'm not gonna see the entry point I was hoping for though...she's rollin' over as we speak;

I'll just have to settle for the sub-$20 pile on hand and continue "hoping for the worst", if you will.

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:07 | 1721597 citrine
citrine's picture

Interesting statistics this morning: GDP is revised up, AND jobless claims are considerably better than most optimistic forecast. Did Bernanke not know this when he called US employment situatuion "A National Crisis" this morning?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1721688 Sambo
Sambo's picture

If no QE3 in the near future then why should the markets go up? I think the jump has more to do with europe.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1721603 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Another census already?!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:05 | 1721606 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

I think this puts Benocide Bernanke & His Band of Thieves in a bind...but then again they have given themselves 4 main reasons to print:

1) Lack of Inflation

2) Too much Deflation

3) Unemployment too high

4) Stock Market too low

What's not to love about Permanent Open Season on Money Printing?

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:07 | 1721611 Stuart
Stuart's picture

Erosion of trust in government has always proved disastrous for the sitting government.   GOP take note.  You're going to get stuck with the tab. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1721637 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

Sorry Stuart...the only ones stuck with the "tab" are taxpayers...but thanks for your insight.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:16 | 1721652 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Stuck with the tab' of what? The 'erosion of trust of govt' you think that just started today? Youre just following the script of the puppet show too closely, demicans and republicrats the same acting troupe.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:11 | 1721630 The Axe
The Axe's picture

I believe in Santa, easter bunny....and the BLS.....please....only a moron   would believe that number.... too funny how much the BLS has become a joke.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1721634 nantucket
nantucket's picture

this has been happening for quite a while now, a string of really bad data and mkts shit the bed and talk about depressions, then some not so bad data and mkts crank pud and talk about recovery,...lather, rinse, repeat.  the govt data is as useful as a hat full of busted assholes.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:12 | 1721636 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Thank you BLS. This may allow me to buy even more puts on that uber piece-of-shit LNKD.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:13 | 1721638 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

It was good enough for the perpetual equity momo-crowd. Insolvent Europe jumped instantly and indices are roughly up 2% EVEN THOUGH the horrible set of data from Europe today.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:14 | 1721644 hejss
hejss's picture

Sales have increased at the beginning of september past years. Might be true but temporary.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:RETAIL

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:15 | 1721650 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Does anyone here view this as anything more than another fraudulent attempt at a stick-save?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:18 | 1721661 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The funny part is no ones actually going to BUY it, other than some stock trading robots...I see the DOW is set to open at 11,100, about the avg of the index over the last year.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:38 | 1721715 kito
kito's picture

sheepie, the moms and pops around the good ole usa are getting calls from their 401k and ira reps, telling them, "things are getting better"--"buy while stocks are a bargain". everybody BUYS this crap. its a national pastime, ranking up there with baseball and apple pie.

anybody see old man bogle, giving an interview in front of the vanguard building? he has the sheer audacity to tell the american public to buy index funds!!! he says stocks provide better returns than bonds!!! thats like telling you to hold a grenade instead of a dirty nuclear bomb. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:46 | 1721744 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just the same as Ive been saying for many moons, keeping the 401K Bathrobe Brigades placated until its time to chop their heads off.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:16 | 1721654 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

This is right in line with what Bob Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal.com has been saying- the artificial boom (from the Bernank's money printing) has started to filter into the economy, and unemployment will drop for a while.

Then inflation hits.

Then the money stops flowing, and we crash again, harder than before, since the problems haven't been flushed out of the system yet.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:20 | 1721665 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I havent seen any of the money flow my way yet.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:19 | 1721658 LMAO
LMAO's picture

I don't understand why anybody with half a brain still uses this BS creative accounting ponzi-like data to get a feel of the unemployment pulse and or the economy in general.

The unemployment PONZIonomic numbers are not telling us anything about what really matters in the US:

The steadily declining numbers of the fully EMPLOYED who will have to pump twice as hard trying to keep the sinking USSA Titanic afloat.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:23 | 1721676 fdisk
fdisk's picture

Heck, I'm not complaining, GOLD is going up.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:31 | 1721846 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

An 80 hour work week should pump things up twice nicely.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:17 | 1721659 yabs
yabs's picture

I give up\

everytime this Pig of a market is about to die it comes back to life and rallies

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:25 | 1721685 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

The sad part is that you think this a pure coincidence.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:33 | 1721704 citrine
citrine's picture

Now that is hilarious!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:20 | 1721667 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Does anyone have any thoughts on the best way to short muni bonds ? ... serious.  The spreads on the ETF options are outrageous...obviously they want to keep everyone away.  Any other ideas ? 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:25 | 1721686 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

That's not it, it's a thin market and the volatility is jacked.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:24 | 1721684 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Glad to see it, but look at the consumer durable purchases and household deleveraging.  Could just be an anomaly.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:26 | 1721689 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

In a word, "transitory".

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:29 | 1721697 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The report is so good that certainly CNBC will have on a bunch of CEO's who have hired 500 or 1,000 people over the last month to talk all about how things are ramping up everywhere.

Cue crickets chirping.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:33 | 1721705 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

those would be CEO's from another dimension/parallel universe I imagine....

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:37 | 1721859 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

You are right on SheepDog... as usual you're mental clarity reminds me of some fine Vodka.  Hmmm, have to mix me up a nice Vodka on the rocks in a few.

Where are these administration supporting robot CEO's touting all the hiring?  They don't exist.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:35 | 1721710 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

of course they are clever...next week when monthly jobless claims for sept come out on friday, this weeks numbers will be washed out..who says laundering gov stats doesnt exist?

uncle ben's converted numbers..better than the rice!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:41 | 1721732 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

LOL...through march???   "Another report from the Labor Department showed the U.S. economy likely created 192,000 more jobs in the year through March than previously estimated."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Secondquarter-growth-revised-rb-3757794895...

 

oh yeah..what did they just find a box of receipts with numbers under cousin tims desk and assume it should be applied  to jobs, instead of his taxes?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:55 | 1721769 chindit13
chindit13's picture

If this number is correct, then I would like a big round of applause for our Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, who has proven that DOING ABSOLUTELY NOTHING has the greatest positive effect on economic conditions.

If you or your staff are reading this, Ben, go ahead and take a much deserved vacation.  Clearly you can take the rest of the year off, and if that is not enough, go ahead and take 2012 off, too.  America will let you know if anyone ever needs you again.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:56 | 1721770 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

this data isn't even worth the conversation it's generating because it's irrelevant anyways, if there is anything of importance in these reports it's not what this weeks print is, but what last weeks print was revised up to. anybody want to bet that trend is going change anytime soon?

besides this is exactly what happened last year as the holiday bump set in claims dropped, "official" unemployment edged down (though the u-6 number barely budged) and DC road it for all they could, but we all know what happened after the christmas hopeium wore off. we may have a repeat in the pattern again this year though I suspect the bump will be weaker as the data clearly shows the economy is in worse shape going in to this holiday season than last.

still this holiday season will be a battle ground for those lost souls who continue to fight the teabagger vs libtard, R vs D, fake left right paradigm battle in the run up to 2012 when we cast our votes for the next TOTUS.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 09:58 | 1721772 yabs
yabs's picture

razor
stick save aND FRAUDULENT IT IS
I'm sick to the death of them just kicking the can like this its insane
I mean forgive me If I am wrong but countries and companies including banks have been going bust since we had banks but the world didn't end
now default is a tabbo word it seems
friggin insane and totally wrong
fascism gets worse and worse

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:28 | 1721836 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

I expect now to help keep those BLS numbers improving they're going to trickle out those 200,000 Post Office layoffs to one person a month.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 10:35 | 1721851 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Well, we're going to see some extra special spin and pump from these bureacracies as the man in the oval office is starting to feel some heat from former zombified supporters and growning poll numbers from opposition candidates who want his job.

I heard they were going to re-animate Osama Bin Laden so we could hunt him down and kill him again for a little presidential approval boost.

Sorta like "Weekend at Binney's".

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:04 | 1721952 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

I guess the magnitude of East Coast Hurricane cleanup was bigger than expected. Only 10 more Huge Natural Disasters and we could be back to normal employment numbers. BTF Disaster. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 11:18 | 1722009 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

That first chart looks like the ECG of a dying crack addict.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:13 | 1722806 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

I think in auditor terms this anomoly would= someone is cooking the books and not very well either.

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