Initial Claims Beats By Multiple Standard Deviations As BLS Revisions Jump Again
We grow weary of reporting the consistent statistical anomaly that is the prior revision UP in the initial jobless claims. Headlines will read of the impressive job 'improving' situation as initial claims fell 37k on the week (a two standard deviation improvement which seems extremely unlikely given the macro/micro backdrop). Once again proving their ineptitude, the claims print was massively better than even the most optimistic economist estimate - an incredible six standard deviations better than consensus. This is the lowest initial claims print since April 1st (ironic really) and only the second time below 400k in the last 25 weeks - though for a moment we must have some hope that this is a trend as ES pops 10pts.
UPDATE: Via Bloomberg (we couldn't resist) from TD Securities' Eric Green: "If its too good to believe, it probably is, and the BLS says as much"
Week-over-week change in initial claims (SA) showing the flip-flopping oscillation and extreme nature of this print (and note previous reactions to such extreme prints).
And our experts said:
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