Initial Claims Beats By Multiple Standard Deviations As BLS Revisions Jump Again

Tyler Durden's picture

We grow weary of reporting the consistent statistical anomaly that is the prior revision UP in the initial jobless claims. Headlines will read of the impressive job 'improving' situation as initial claims fell 37k on the week (a two standard deviation improvement which seems extremely unlikely given the macro/micro backdrop). Once again proving their ineptitude, the claims print was massively better than even the most optimistic economist estimate - an incredible six standard deviations better than consensus. This is the lowest initial claims print since April 1st (ironic really) and only the second time below 400k in the last 25 weeks - though for a moment we must have some hope that this is a trend as ES pops 10pts.

UPDATE: Via Bloomberg (we couldn't resist) from TD Securities' Eric Green: "If its too good to believe, it probably is, and the BLS says as much"

Week-over-week change in initial claims (SA) showing the flip-flopping oscillation and extreme nature of this print (and note previous reactions to such extreme prints).


And our experts said:


Charts: Bloomberg

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LongSoupLine's picture

Steve (Lies)man was just found breathing into paper bag and masturbating.

Jayda1850's picture

only hope is if he has a belt around his neck and his fat fingers cannot undo in time.

ratso's picture

I think that it has now become an established fact that only bad news can be true.  

Yamaha's picture

That is funny- I realty didn't think he could find his dick!

Cpl Hicks's picture

That's why he keeps John Harwood around.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Why don't you sit & spin on this

Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

When will July2011 numbers pop up? Monday?

EDIT: the linked report there to fns has June2011 as last numbers (thru all states - increasing)

buzzsaw99's picture

There seems to be about a two month delay so maybe it is overdue?

Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Delayed for a"sigma 3" reason? :)

Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

LMAO!  Needink wipe monitor once again.

Hint: dont click on youtube links from ZH while drinking :)

mayhem_korner's picture

Your "hint" was a more important clarification than you might realize.  Wasn't sure what you were fessin' up to for a minute there...

Gandalf6900's picture

chill guys I was just joking

mayhem_korner's picture

Well, you hit -21 on the down before you re-posted.  That's a 5-minute major and a game misconduct.  :D

Gandalf6900's picture

I guess the only green arrow I got was from million dollar bonus guy

Plus trolling is the only way to get you guys to explain stuff

peace out

Joe Shmoe's picture

Hey I thouhght you were funny.  Stick to your guns, man!  Posts to this blog have become all about singing in unison and using the same language (unicorns, hopium, banksters, PM) to convince each other they're right.  It's become like the opposite of CNBC... or the same, just for bears and gold bugs.  Any miss to the downside is embraced as vindication of precience.  Any miss ot the upside is conspiracy.  

Now, watch how I get slammed.  Predictable.  Predictable.


mayhem_korner's picture

He didn't have any guns.  That's why he capitulated to reality.

Cynical Sidney's picture

it's statistical revisionism: pick a number that most suits your interest, work backwards to come up with a formula.


Popo's picture

So I guess we won't be needing anymore stimulus then?   Oh wait.. Bernanke *just* said we probably need more.

Does. not. compute...

mayhem_korner's picture

spin this ZH

No spin needed. We know it will be revised upwards, and the release itself indicates "technical" anomalies in the seasonal adjustment.

But set that all aside, ye light-minded "wizard," A 391K print of initial jobless claims is putrid.  The MSM now states that claims "below 375K" is indicative of stable employment...Problem is that in March, they were saying that "below 350K" was indicative of stable employment and in December 2010 they were saying "below 300K." 

If you are paying attention, you recognize this as another body blow to the dismal situation.  I'm guessing your attention span doesn't break 2 minutes apart from snappin' the radish in your sister's closet.

John Law Lives's picture

Consider who owns the MSM. People like Rupert Murdoch WANT the stock market to get pumped. He gets richer.

The "number" that represents stable employment has been tweaked higher and higher over the years. It is a shameless spin job from the whoremasters.

mayhem_korner's picture

Maybe, but I think the MSM just prints what the White House tainted BLS press release says.  If you read the immediate prints that come out at 8:31am EDT, there is almost no editing going on.  I think the market gives the stuff about a 15 minute half life, then returns to "important" things like the Eurocircus and whose face is going to go on the US $1 Trillion bill.  So I think the 'vested interest' folks here are the ones in the administration looking for sound bites on the Barry bus tour.

My 2 cents...

John Law Lives's picture

An example of the spin I am referring to is the endless positive prattle in the AP release after the weekly BLS data is reported. I can't remember when there wasn't some sort of positive spin attempted re. the BLS data.

mayhem_korner's picture

Agreed.  I'm just suggesting that the spinners are in the tank for the prez, not the stock lords.

John Law Lives's picture

I can believe that. Looks like they have their work cut out for them to get this clown elected again.

fuu's picture

Ok I will give it a try:


99 weeks ago today was  11/05/2009
lead salad's picture

Taking a breather from Obama's crotch?

Mike2756's picture

Wait until the "sue everyone 'cause i'm unemployed" jobs bill kicks in!

SheepDog-One's picture

Im sure CNBC will have on some CEO's today who have hired 500 people in the last month to describe how the economy is ramping up everywhere. Yea right.

MFL8240's picture


Jayda1850's picture

Is there any doubt that next week's revisions will revise claims over 400k? I think not. Another bullshit number to increase the hope that unemployment is recovering.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Awesome.  This means the Bernank will print mor...wait, shit.  Back to shorting silver.

The Axe's picture

BLS need claim  some seasonal

citrine's picture

THey did.     

Department official said government statisticians had problems seasonally adjusting the data.

Mike2756's picture

Must have been their snow day.

mayhem_korner's picture

'government statisticians.' 

I'm picturing a room full of Rick Moranis-from-Ghostbusters clones.  Short-sleeved, check shirts, $9 shoes over tube socks, balled-up handkerchiefs in front pockets, pencil sharpeners in every cubical, reams and reams of 11x18 'documents' marked DRAFT, walls of multi-colored push-pins, posters of abacusses, Rubik's cube paperweights, ....

Sorry - I got carried away.  :D

-Michelle-'s picture

Gozer the Traveler. He will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the traveler came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrick supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor! Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

Chuck Bone's picture

Wonder what the birth/death adjustment was on this anomaly.

MichaelG's picture

I think they only bring out the big B/D-A gun for monthly data.  For weekly claims they just pick a number 'above expectations', without quite so much fol-de-rol.

Nascent_Variable's picture

Even 390+ (pre-revision) is a horribly shitty number.  To hell with expectations, look at what is actually happening.  The job market is a slaughterhouse.

snowball777's picture

"Been down so long, it looks like up to me"

mayhem_korner's picture you're runnin' down a new avatar.  We need to be able to spot you quickly on those left-right rant posts.   :D

snowball777's picture

Weird. I'd swapped it a couple days ago after getting tired of 'splaining that I didn't attend Berkeley for the fifteenth time (you literal).

We'll see if it sticks this time.


Cpl Hicks's picture

Bearish- so it'll stick here.

BTW- 31-23, last Saturday.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

of course these are lies. bls is playing a game with itself where it plays a sound track for the laugh line, only nobody is laughing.

tekhneek's picture


Why don't they stop revising it and just print the real number? Oh... yeah, forgot about that.


Cpl Hicks's picture

Move along, there's nothing to see here... there are no Real numbers.