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Initial Claims Beats By Multiple Standard Deviations As BLS Revisions Jump Again
We grow weary of reporting the consistent statistical anomaly that is the prior revision UP in the initial jobless claims. Headlines will read of the impressive job 'improving' situation as initial claims fell 37k on the week (a two standard deviation improvement which seems extremely unlikely given the macro/micro backdrop). Once again proving their ineptitude, the claims print was massively better than even the most optimistic economist estimate - an incredible six standard deviations better than consensus. This is the lowest initial claims print since April 1st (ironic really) and only the second time below 400k in the last 25 weeks - though for a moment we must have some hope that this is a trend as ES pops 10pts.
UPDATE: Via Bloomberg (we couldn't resist) from TD Securities' Eric Green: "If its too good to believe, it probably is, and the BLS says as much"
Week-over-week change in initial claims (SA) showing the flip-flopping oscillation and extreme nature of this print (and note previous reactions to such extreme prints).
And our experts said:
Charts: Bloomberg
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Steve (Lies)man was just found breathing into paper bag and masturbating.
only hope is if he has a belt around his neck and his fat fingers cannot undo in time.
I think that it has now become an established fact that only bad news can be true.
That is funny- I realty didn't think he could find his dick!
That's why he keeps John Harwood around.
spin this ZH
Why don't you sit & spin on this
two words: food stamps
look it up
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/food-stamp-use-surges-most-years-alabama-f...
When will July2011 numbers pop up? Monday?
EDIT: the linked report there to fns has June2011 as last numbers (thru all states - increasing)
There seems to be about a two month delay so maybe it is overdue?
Delayed for a"sigma 3" reason? :)
Delayed for :cue rally monkey:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY
LMAO! Needink wipe monitor once again.
Hint: dont click on youtube links from ZH while drinking :)
Your "hint" was a more important clarification than you might realize. Wasn't sure what you were fessin' up to for a minute there...
chill guys I was just joking
Well, you hit -21 on the down before you re-posted. That's a 5-minute major and a game misconduct. :D
I guess the only green arrow I got was from million dollar bonus guy
Plus trolling is the only way to get you guys to explain stuff
peace out
Hey I thouhght you were funny. Stick to your guns, man! Posts to this blog have become all about singing in unison and using the same language (unicorns, hopium, banksters, PM) to convince each other they're right. It's become like the opposite of CNBC... or the same, just for bears and gold bugs. Any miss to the downside is embraced as vindication of precience. Any miss ot the upside is conspiracy.
Now, watch how I get slammed. Predictable. Predictable.
Wait for it...
He didn't have any guns. That's why he capitulated to reality.
it's statistical revisionism: pick a number that most suits your interest, work backwards to come up with a formula.
So I guess we won't be needing anymore stimulus then? Oh wait.. Bernanke *just* said we probably need more.
Does. not. compute...
spin this ZH
No spin needed. We know it will be revised upwards, and the release itself indicates "technical" anomalies in the seasonal adjustment.
But set that all aside, ye light-minded "wizard," A 391K print of initial jobless claims is putrid. The MSM now states that claims "below 375K" is indicative of stable employment...Problem is that in March, they were saying that "below 350K" was indicative of stable employment and in December 2010 they were saying "below 300K."
If you are paying attention, you recognize this as another body blow to the dismal situation. I'm guessing your attention span doesn't break 2 minutes apart from snappin' the radish in your sister's closet.
Consider who owns the MSM. People like Rupert Murdoch WANT the stock market to get pumped. He gets richer.
The "number" that represents stable employment has been tweaked higher and higher over the years. It is a shameless spin job from the whoremasters.
Maybe, but I think the MSM just prints what the White House tainted BLS press release says. If you read the immediate prints that come out at 8:31am EDT, there is almost no editing going on. I think the market gives the stuff about a 15 minute half life, then returns to "important" things like the Eurocircus and whose face is going to go on the US $1 Trillion bill. So I think the 'vested interest' folks here are the ones in the administration looking for sound bites on the Barry bus tour.
My 2 cents...
An example of the spin I am referring to is the endless positive prattle in the AP release after the weekly BLS data is reported. I can't remember when there wasn't some sort of positive spin attempted re. the BLS data.
Agreed. I'm just suggesting that the spinners are in the tank for the prez, not the stock lords.
I can believe that. Looks like they have their work cut out for them to get this clown elected again.
Ok I will give it a try:
99 weeks ago today was 11/05/2009Taking a breather from Obama's crotch?
Wait until the "sue everyone 'cause i'm unemployed" jobs bill kicks in!
Im sure CNBC will have on some CEO's today who have hired 500 people in the last month to describe how the economy is ramping up everywhere. Yea right.
Here, maybe I can help spin it. IF YOU BELIEVE ANY DATA THAT COMES VIA THE US GOVERMENT, YOU ARE OUT OF YOUR FUCKIN MIND! Hope that helps!!
Is there any doubt that next week's revisions will revise claims over 400k? I think not. Another bullshit number to increase the hope that unemployment is recovering.
Awesome. This means the Bernank will print mor...wait, shit. Back to shorting silver.
BLS need claim some seasonal issues.....lol
THey did.
Must have been their snow day.
'government statisticians.'
I'm picturing a room full of Rick Moranis-from-Ghostbusters clones. Short-sleeved, check shirts, $9 shoes over tube socks, balled-up handkerchiefs in front pockets, pencil sharpeners in every cubical, reams and reams of 11x18 'documents' marked DRAFT, walls of multi-colored push-pins, posters of abacusses, Rubik's cube paperweights, ....
Sorry - I got carried away. :D
Gozer the Traveler. He will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the traveler came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrick supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor! Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!
Wonder what the birth/death adjustment was on this anomaly.
I think they only bring out the big B/D-A gun for monthly data. For weekly claims they just pick a number 'above expectations', without quite so much fol-de-rol.
Even 390+ (pre-revision) is a horribly shitty number. To hell with expectations, look at what is actually happening. The job market is a slaughterhouse.
"Been down so long, it looks like up to me"
Snowball...trust you're runnin' down a new avatar. We need to be able to spot you quickly on those left-right rant posts. :D
Weird. I'd swapped it a couple days ago after getting tired of 'splaining that I didn't attend Berkeley for the fifteenth time (you people...so literal).
We'll see if it sticks this time.
Bearish- so it'll stick here.
BTW- 31-23, last Saturday.
of course these are lies. bls is playing a game with itself where it plays a sound track for the laugh line, only nobody is laughing.
BULLSHIT.
Why don't they stop revising it and just print the real number? Oh... yeah, forgot about that.
123902193019230913K
Move along, there's nothing to see here... there are no Real numbers.
Experts, bitchez!
Total BS. Anyway we'll see the REAL numbers next week.
No, you'll see revised numbers next week. You'll never see the REAL numbers.
oh my god we heading for a boom time to sell my smelly shorts
What about this? They revised it up a lot?
Can we, at least, have Bagdad Bob lay out these numbers for us over national TV?
I mean, please, throw me a bone and class this up a bit.
Is this what's known as 'jumping the shark'?
Anyone think this was due to end of Month window dressing to help Fund Managers out? Then they will revise it down again next Month.
Yep. But I think QE6 rumors would have worked better (lasted through tomorrow).
Ding, Ding, Ding!!
Tyler, Give Waterfallsparkles a prize for best "undercurrent corruption tactics" recognition!
I like the way you talk. [/slingblade]
Greece saved again for the 45th time this month, BLS throws out some cooked numbers, Dow + 500 today.
Excellent time to establish some short positions at the open. I love these monster bullshit openings.
Amen.
At this point UE numbers are only for the folks on Wall Street. The unemployed already know their screwed, they've been looking for work for months, Main Street doesn't even care about the movement in the DOW and the numbers coming from the BLS. This is purley a tool for Wall Street, nothing more. The next factors we'll be looking at is the "imagination index" where unicorn and rainbow thoughts are bullish.
Another great call by the "experts", a fuckin chimp could do better
Hey now.
Sorry fuu, actually I would prefer chimps driving this bus instead of the current crop of waste's of sperm
Someone else will have to drive, I'm ridin' shotgun.
Jr. Walker
BLS pretty much admits the number is incorrect even as it releases it. I'm really surprised thay admitted probs with the seasonal adjustment before we get a really big worser adjustment next week. These weekly numbers are fundamentally unreliable
EPJ has been calling a M3 fueled 'small bubble' recovery for quite sometime. Who the F knows? Every player in the system wants a kick at the can. I'm as much a bear as you'll ever find but the fact is this zombie is still thrashing and NOBODY can know when it stops.
Yeah and claims aren't being manipulated.....right : http://displacedema.blogspot.com/2011/09/are-weekly-claims-being-manipulated.html
Look at that chart and you tell me. It's like a company playing with the numbers on the balance sheet andincome statement all year long, and then they get real in December.
We'll be fully recoved when there are NO jobs lost for a week and Lies Man will have on air apoplexey! Who will give the details that EVERYONE was out of a job the prior week (and working under the table).
"They say alchohol and gasoline don't mix. I tried it and it makes a pretty good drink"
According to the state by state data in the unemployment report, it appears to be mathematically impossible for the claims to have decreased. In the 9 worst states the claims increased by 19,099, and in the 5 best (including PR) the claims decreased by 2,961. The fifth best state saw a decrease of 423. So if you assume that every single other state was right behind the 5th best with a decrease of 422, that still gives you a 51 state (with PR) total of an increase in claims of 524. And it's not the seasonal adjustment because the NSA number saw a 28,800 decrease. Is this whole report just one giant mistake?
No, not one giant mistake - one giant farce. The rabbit hole is a lot deeper than most are willing to believe. In short, if my scholastic performance is predicated on getting A's on the test, and I get to not only collect and score the tests, but also determine what questions go on them and what qualifies for a A, what type of behavior will said school be encouraging? Rigorous academic introspection and education? Or self-affirming circle jerk of delusion?
Nevermind, they give state data for only the prior week, which they don't really make very clear on the report since the report is for the current week.
todays report--another reason you will never see qe3
Kito, you think it's mathematically possible to have tens of
Trillions in Debt and survive without printing? Perhaps, while
Yield are so low, it's somewhat helps, but in the long run?
No QE? I don't think so.
who said anything about surviving?
You think the Fed gives a shit about employment. That's cute.
the fed gives a shit about itself and the dollar and the power it yields around the world, in conjunction with other central banks. the fed knows printing at this stage is a surefire way to fiat death.
They probably should have thought about that before they increased the monetary base more in 3 years than they have the past 100.
Heh, ones Data beats Expectation, ZH-rs turn into denial mode.
Tragedy, Market is up again :))) Time to take some ZH Zoloft :)))
Definitly this is great news, now is the best time to buy a house.
Yes fdisk this report means all is well, you should buy stocks today.
fdisk,
But ZH-ers don't change their minds. They know one thing and one thing only... and assume all data that doesn't conform is conspiracy. These are the same exact posts that were put on this site in August of 2010. The blind faithful will be screaming for collapse and ammmunition no matter what.
Now, watch the slamming I get from the fathful.
I was looking to add to my shorts. Thanks, BLS!
How much, at what point, what expiration date. So many questions!
Not even puts...straight up SDS...unimpressive amounts, this is my pocket change after all.
Looks like I'm not gonna see the entry point I was hoping for though...she's rollin' over as we speak;
I'll just have to settle for the sub-$20 pile on hand and continue "hoping for the worst", if you will.
Interesting statistics this morning: GDP is revised up, AND jobless claims are considerably better than most optimistic forecast. Did Bernanke not know this when he called US employment situatuion "A National Crisis" this morning?
If no QE3 in the near future then why should the markets go up? I think the jump has more to do with europe.
Another census already?!
I think this puts Benocide Bernanke & His Band of Thieves in a bind...but then again they have given themselves 4 main reasons to print:
1) Lack of Inflation
2) Too much Deflation
3) Unemployment too high
4) Stock Market too low
What's not to love about Permanent Open Season on Money Printing?
Erosion of trust in government has always proved disastrous for the sitting government. GOP take note. You're going to get stuck with the tab.
Sorry Stuart...the only ones stuck with the "tab" are taxpayers...but thanks for your insight.
'Stuck with the tab' of what? The 'erosion of trust of govt' you think that just started today? Youre just following the script of the puppet show too closely, demicans and republicrats the same acting troupe.
I believe in Santa, easter bunny....and the BLS.....please....only a moron would believe that number.... too funny how much the BLS has become a joke.
this has been happening for quite a while now, a string of really bad data and mkts shit the bed and talk about depressions, then some not so bad data and mkts crank pud and talk about recovery,...lather, rinse, repeat. the govt data is as useful as a hat full of busted assholes.
Thank you BLS. This may allow me to buy even more puts on that uber piece-of-shit LNKD.
It was good enough for the perpetual equity momo-crowd. Insolvent Europe jumped instantly and indices are roughly up 2% EVEN THOUGH the horrible set of data from Europe today.
Sales have increased at the beginning of september past years. Might be true but temporary.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:RETAIL
Does anyone here view this as anything more than another fraudulent attempt at a stick-save?
The funny part is no ones actually going to BUY it, other than some stock trading robots...I see the DOW is set to open at 11,100, about the avg of the index over the last year.
sheepie, the moms and pops around the good ole usa are getting calls from their 401k and ira reps, telling them, "things are getting better"--"buy while stocks are a bargain". everybody BUYS this crap. its a national pastime, ranking up there with baseball and apple pie.
anybody see old man bogle, giving an interview in front of the vanguard building? he has the sheer audacity to tell the american public to buy index funds!!! he says stocks provide better returns than bonds!!! thats like telling you to hold a grenade instead of a dirty nuclear bomb.
Just the same as Ive been saying for many moons, keeping the 401K Bathrobe Brigades placated until its time to chop their heads off.
This is right in line with what Bob Wenzel at EconomicPolicyJournal.com has been saying- the artificial boom (from the Bernank's money printing) has started to filter into the economy, and unemployment will drop for a while.
Then inflation hits.
Then the money stops flowing, and we crash again, harder than before, since the problems haven't been flushed out of the system yet.
I havent seen any of the money flow my way yet.
I don't understand why anybody with half a brain still uses this BS creative accounting ponzi-like data to get a feel of the unemployment pulse and or the economy in general.
The unemployment PONZIonomic numbers are not telling us anything about what really matters in the US:
The steadily declining numbers of the fully EMPLOYED who will have to pump twice as hard trying to keep the sinking USSA Titanic afloat.
Heck, I'm not complaining, GOLD is going up.
An 80 hour work week should pump things up twice nicely.
I give up\
everytime this Pig of a market is about to die it comes back to life and rallies
The sad part is that you think this a pure coincidence.
Now that is hilarious!
Does anyone have any thoughts on the best way to short muni bonds ? ... serious. The spreads on the ETF options are outrageous...obviously they want to keep everyone away. Any other ideas ?
That's not it, it's a thin market and the volatility is jacked.
Glad to see it, but look at the consumer durable purchases and household deleveraging. Could just be an anomaly.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
In a word, "transitory".
The report is so good that certainly CNBC will have on a bunch of CEO's who have hired 500 or 1,000 people over the last month to talk all about how things are ramping up everywhere.
Cue crickets chirping.
those would be CEO's from another dimension/parallel universe I imagine....
You are right on SheepDog... as usual you're mental clarity reminds me of some fine Vodka. Hmmm, have to mix me up a nice Vodka on the rocks in a few.
Where are these administration supporting robot CEO's touting all the hiring? They don't exist.
of course they are clever...next week when monthly jobless claims for sept come out on friday, this weeks numbers will be washed out..who says laundering gov stats doesnt exist?
uncle ben's converted numbers..better than the rice!
LOL...through march??? "Another report from the Labor Department showed the U.S. economy likely created 192,000 more jobs in the year through March than previously estimated."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Secondquarter-growth-revised-rb-3757794895...
oh yeah..what did they just find a box of receipts with numbers under cousin tims desk and assume it should be applied to jobs, instead of his taxes?
If this number is correct, then I would like a big round of applause for our Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, who has proven that DOING ABSOLUTELY NOTHING has the greatest positive effect on economic conditions.
If you or your staff are reading this, Ben, go ahead and take a much deserved vacation. Clearly you can take the rest of the year off, and if that is not enough, go ahead and take 2012 off, too. America will let you know if anyone ever needs you again.
this data isn't even worth the conversation it's generating because it's irrelevant anyways, if there is anything of importance in these reports it's not what this weeks print is, but what last weeks print was revised up to. anybody want to bet that trend is going change anytime soon?
besides this is exactly what happened last year as the holiday bump set in claims dropped, "official" unemployment edged down (though the u-6 number barely budged) and DC road it for all they could, but we all know what happened after the christmas hopeium wore off. we may have a repeat in the pattern again this year though I suspect the bump will be weaker as the data clearly shows the economy is in worse shape going in to this holiday season than last.
still this holiday season will be a battle ground for those lost souls who continue to fight the teabagger vs libtard, R vs D, fake left right paradigm battle in the run up to 2012 when we cast our votes for the next TOTUS.
razor
stick save aND FRAUDULENT IT IS
I'm sick to the death of them just kicking the can like this its insane
I mean forgive me If I am wrong but countries and companies including banks have been going bust since we had banks but the world didn't end
now default is a tabbo word it seems
friggin insane and totally wrong
fascism gets worse and worse
I expect now to help keep those BLS numbers improving they're going to trickle out those 200,000 Post Office layoffs to one person a month.
Well, we're going to see some extra special spin and pump from these bureacracies as the man in the oval office is starting to feel some heat from former zombified supporters and growning poll numbers from opposition candidates who want his job.
I heard they were going to re-animate Osama Bin Laden so we could hunt him down and kill him again for a little presidential approval boost.
Sorta like "Weekend at Binney's".
done.
Dire Prediction From Osama's BodyguardAl-Qaida calls on Ahmadinejad to end 9/11 conspiracy theories
I guess the magnitude of East Coast Hurricane cleanup was bigger than expected. Only 10 more Huge Natural Disasters and we could be back to normal employment numbers. BTF Disaster.
That first chart looks like the ECG of a dying crack addict.
I think in auditor terms this anomoly would= someone is cooking the books and not very well either.