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Initial Claims Continue String Of Disappointments

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's initial claims number printed at 357K, on expectations of 355K, a number which next week will be revised higher once again, likely to 362K. The game here is simple - just show a decline in claims, as what happened to last week's number, also revised higher, this time from 359K to 363K, just so it can show a 6K decline and allow the idiot media to blow such headline as "Weekly US unemployment benefit applications fall to 357,000, lowest in 4 years" from AP and "Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease to Lowest Level in Four Years" from Bloomberg. In reality, this is the third consecutive miss of consensus in a row. Give us a break - funny then when one considers that last week's consensus was 350K, which has since been revised to 363K. Or what about that 348K print the week prior which ended up being a more realistic 364K. In other words, the headlines were 348K, 359K, 357K, and somehow this is indicative of anything more than outright and endless data manipulation. Needless to say, when next week the number is revised to a far greater miss, nobody will care as the embargoed headlines will once again say "Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease to Lowest Level in Four Years" and the sheep will keep on buying it over and over and over. What is also notable, is that just like yesterday's ADP number, today's claims data gives no hint what to expect from tomorrow's market holiday NFP.

Below is a true apples to apples chart showing how real claims accounting for continuing, and extended, are not really at 2008 levels.

 

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Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:46 | 2318974 ihedgemyhedges
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3 in a row, eh? In bowling, that's called a turkey.  Name applies here too.........

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:49 | 2318984 Chief KnocAHoma
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Second is good enough.

http://annoyanidiot.blogspot.com/

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:53 | 2318994 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

It works until it doesn't. What terrfies me are those gasoline sales charts. I don't thnk they can keep up the facade much longer.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:21 | 2319300 The Big Ching-aso
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"How many fingers, Winston?"

 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:47 | 2318977 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Today's claims data gives no hint what to expect from tomorrow's market holiday...

A big rotten egg....

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:47 | 2318978 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Obama better get his race war started up quick, or everyone's gonna blame this shit economy on him, and vote for White Obama (aka Mitt Romney) instead.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:55 | 2319002 bigbucksr
bigbucksr's picture

that is indeed the plan....imho.....throw in a Supreme Court ruling in June by the "racist" supreme court, a bunch of HARP induced tornadoes and hurricanes, and a Congressional Debt Ceiling crisis and there will be full scale chaos come October/November......but it doesn't matter because the house always win...there is the Obama, the black globalist or Romney the white globalist....very little difference between their positions....the New World Order wins either way....a default on the US Debt just before the election is not out of the realm of possibility in my opinion

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:12 | 2319048 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm a little afraid of how Obummer the god child will  react if the supreme court rules against him. With an ego like his it could be ugly. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:03 | 2319029 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre so inept that all their plans are discovered pretty quick, NBC just had to issue a statement saying theyre real sorry they cut and pasted and altered Zimmermans 911 call tape to make him sound more 'racist'. Thats the world we live in now, pure propaganda.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:00 | 2319230 worbsid
worbsid's picture

They are still showing the photo of the 13 year old too.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:47 | 2318979 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Pay no attention to USD over 80, and 10Y falling. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:51 | 2318989 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah no kidding someone just declared war on the treasury shorts.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:48 | 2318980 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Biggs going short, he said, on BloomtardTV...! :)))

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:49 | 2318983 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

They should print a plus 750k jobs number tomorrow. Then next month print a plus 750k number again and but revise this months down to plus 110k. Probably get an extra 3k on the dow and a good expirement to see how much they can get away with.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:04 | 2319035 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep they could do that, but dont they want a 'crisis' now? We'll see what they do, whole thing looks like a 3 Stooges skit to me.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:31 | 2319328 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Surely there is some piss ant country somewhere that requires immediate carpet bombing ...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:49 | 2318985 lizzy36
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Rumors in market about a French bank being in trouble.

Which is odd because Bernanke had lunch with the Bankers last week and told them to start helping with the EU debt crisis. Odder still since Mario Monti said (almost at same time as this lunch was held) that the EU crisis was almost over. 

Perhaps this is Jamie Dimons way of helping ;)

 

Fortune has learned that attendees included Jamie Dimon (J.P. Morgan), Bob Diamond (Barclays), Brady Dougan (Credit Suisse), Larry Fink (Blackrock), Gerald Hassell (Bank of New York Mellon), Glenn Hutchins (Silver Lake), Colm Kelleher (Morgan Stanley), Brian Moynihan (Bank of America), Steve Schwarzman (Blackstone Group) and David Vinar (Goldman Sachs).

Sources say Bernanke spoke at length about monetary policy, in an apparent effort to persuade attendees that they needed to take a more active role in helping to deal with the European debt crisis. He spent virtually no time discussing regulation, although that mantle got taken up by both Dimon (domestic regulation) and Schwarzman (global regulation).

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/04/exclusive-bernanke-breaks-bread-with-top-bankers/

 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:51 | 2318988 anynonmous
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U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in Four Years

 

Growing Economy

 

Growing Confidence

 

sincerely,

http://www.mikebloomberg.com/

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:51 | 2318992 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm looking forward to the jobs report tomorrow with no robots to react to the number. I wonder what they will release.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:55 | 2318993 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oh but wait they keep falling right? Yea after every revision up every single week. What a farce of an economy we live in today.

Timmy G: We can't afford another debt ceiling debate.

Hate to break it to you brother but the clock is ticking and ya got 6 months at most.

Tick, tick, tick.

Oh wait a French bank in trouble? Well surprise, surprise. Ya can't fix capital debt issues with liquidity debt. Feeling a lot like 2008 across the pond now eh?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:54 | 2318997 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Kind of funny how suddenly everything is disappointing. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:57 | 2319012 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yep. They are just begging for QE.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:01 | 2319019 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Also begging for retail to come in and buy too, I see thats still in almost every media paragraph.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:56 | 2319006 JohnKozac
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A huge wave of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have returned to the U.S. in recent months, and that's created a surge of applicants for the GI Bill.

His office created an emergency scholarship fund of $30,000 for Rutgers GI Bill students who are contending with late VA payments.

More than 416,000 veterans have enrolled in school for the spring semester under the Post-9/11 GI Bill, which President Obama enacted in 2009 and made available to anyone who's served in the military since Sept. 11, 2001.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gi-bill-back-helping-thousands-094700820.h...

For those good at math, whats $30k x 416,000?

Good for the Vets, but Ben will need to print more...lots more to help ouot these and the next 500,000 vets who apply to further their education and hopefully find a job.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:57 | 2319007 ebworthen
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Press release:  "To reflect their broader role, the name of the B.L.S. has been revised to B.S."

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:59 | 2319015 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Efficiency!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:57 | 2319009 Carl LaFong
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What happened?  Headline should have read "Weekly US unemployment benefit applications UNEXPECTEDLY fall to 357,000, lowest in 4 years"

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:06 | 2319020 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I look forward to more creative "Just In Time" BLS "Window Dressing" leading up to the election !  We should get a lot of laughs !  On election eve everything will be in full spin mode hopium momentum fast track !  After the election will come the revisions !  Monedas  2012   On the left we have full bore, balls against the wall Socialist living economic laboratories (Norko, Zimbabwe, etc.)....on the right we at best get some mixed economies heavily weighted toward Socialism !  What ever happened to the scientific method with it's control group safeguards ?  PS - Phil Free, feel free to check my posts in regards to your threatening comments at the last thread on the Syntagma suicide !

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:01 | 2319021 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Vampire Squid raising their NFP-lottery guesstimate from 175K to 200K citing "better employment-related indicators this week".

So, bad number is in the cards and monetization hopes get back up. This is getting old...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:08 | 2319040 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They want the news GOOD, plus more hopes for QE....theyre going to have to decide 1 way or the other. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:02 | 2319023 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Gosh, if I was not now laid off and probably somewhere in one of these stats (maybe next week) and still had access to some charting SW...

In the meantime - someone - perhaps a chart over time that shows the concenus, reported, and revised...

Gotta capture the historical record in pictograms.

Sorry if this already exsits.

 

Pete

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:02 | 2319024 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

what does the BLS do, pick the initial number out of a hat? and why do they even bother printing it, this might just be the single most useless number in the history of stats. it's seasonally adjusted in perpetuity and has a 100% success rate of being completely inaccurate every single week and it is always adjusted higher.

I mean if your going to try to sucker the marks into a rigged game at least show some small amount of creativity and, I don't know, maybe adjust it down every once in a while, the numbers are complete bullshit anyways so why not?

just another day in centrally planned bankster paradise.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:08 | 2319042 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

CNBC's spin:  "Jobless claims stay on downward drift.  Down 6000"   BUT, Dow futes jumped 20 in the 5 mins after release....which has held.

Seems the # did not disappoint the market.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:15 | 2319052 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yahoo headline reads...."Jobless claims near a 4 year low"

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:34 | 2319081 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Bruce Krasting covered this 'manipulation' the other day...but maybe this Tyler doesn't read contributors before posting them: BLS conducts landline surveys only, thus missing out on the 27% of Americans who have cell phones only (and I expect are more likely to be employed)...I don't know who is more stupid frankly, BLS or this particular Tyler.

ZH has a great franchise, and almost all the Tylers do great work...but Monsieur, fuck one goat...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:35 | 2319133 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

It may be time for your medication?

Times Three: That's How Much The BLS Upwardly Fudges Data During An Election Year

That the BLS perpetually distorts and manipulates data is no secret and has been reported previously both here and elsewhere numerous times. That the BLS also has a habit of leaking critical market moving data to various entities is also well known. However, we had yet to see just what the BLS is capable of when it comes to fudging and outright slaughtering economic data in a presidential election year. The result is nothing short of a 3 sigma stunner.

John Lohman explains:

It has been well over a year and a half since Zero Hedge first exposed the Department of Labor’s incessant upward revisions to Initial Jobless Claims (here).  As this ridiculous bias continued, it was eventually called out by such  “non-fringe” media sources as CNBC (here).

One might think that, after 18 months of exposure, the almost-as-fast-as-a-blind-and-retarded-turtle statisticians at the BLS would “find” and correct the bias.  Alas, one would be wrong.  Not only does the bias continue, it’s getting worse.  Much worse.  As illustrated in the chart below, 2012 year-to-date revisions are running 3x the long-term average.

Indeed, the most recent revision was the fourth largest on record.  If one only read the headlines this year (at such blogs that specialize in architectural billings, deliveries by canoe, and what not), one would have the impression that Initial Claims have fallen nearly 25,000 this year.  The revised reality? Barely over 10,000.  And that’s a 10,000 improvement against a number that has been revised upward by 50,000.  So, yeah.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:59 | 2319182 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Well, with the greatest respect this is worthy of consideration:

 

Bruce Krasting "I think that taken together these factors can only account for half of the increase in payroll tax revenue. The other half is a function of more people working. The data suggests there are 1-2 million more people working than the BLS is reporting.

Is this possible? “Yes”, is the answer. The BLS puts the work force at 142m. Could its numbers be wrong by 1%? Sure they could. The BLS conducts its surveys by land-line phone. It does not attempt to contact households that exclusively use cell phones. In 2010, 27% of all households exclusively used cell phones. The exclusion of a quarter of all households makes the BLS numbers very suspect."

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-14-02/social-security-%E2%80%93-good-news-bad-news

because telephone polling has a history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman

 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:41 | 2319157 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

is the BLS cookbook for economic numbers beeing published already? i am sure they have many recipes i never eard or knew they existed...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2319171 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

We can harp about the Initial Claims BS all we like but the fact is that it has become a nominal number. The job market has changed so much that to compare claims from this week to claims from 2008 is a useless excercise. It should be presented in relation to the workforce participation rate.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 16:50 | 2320440 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

why? so jerks like on this forum can say that the BLS is manipulating the numbers by changing the rules.  buddy, if YOU want to make that adjustment, you are free to do so. that is why they give you all the frigging straight up data; so you can make your own analysis.  so make it, and come back.

since 2009, the jobless claims and continuing claims have roughly halved.   and in that time the workforce has done.... what?  without even bothering to look, i am going to lay money that it hasnt halved. in which case both these series would still show a very steady and entrenched downward trend. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2319176 Monedas
Monedas's picture

CNBC...........Castratti Nubian Boys Choir     Monedas  2012   Comedy Jihad Books Cook Off

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2319231 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Thats OK, the MSM will spin it so Comrade Obama looks like the hero of the state he really is.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:11 | 2319271 wearef_ckedwith...
wearef_ckedwithnohope's picture

Another really cool experiment is to go back and read all the expert quotes addressing the fudged and constantly upwardly revised figures.  Citing the "job market improvement", etc based on the usual 4k deviance in claims.

The quotes from the "original 348,000" reported on 3/22/2012 were classics.  I wonder what the MSM quotes would have been if they were originally reported at the upwardly revised 364,000?

What a wack-job stock market we have that is consistently and constantly driven by fraudulent jobless claim numbers week after week.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 16:45 | 2320423 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

god it must be just so galling for ZH to see Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims at the lowest levels for 4 years!  so much so that you have to create bullshit charts in an attempt to show otherwise.  anyone with a bloomberg can see simply for themselves that these two series have been falling steadily since 2009 and are the lowest levels since 2008.  so what if weekly estimates are frequently revised up the next week??   the chart of the revised numbers none the less shows the clearest of downward trends to the lowest levels since 2008.

maybe there is something in the data collection process which biases the initial estimate to a lower number? gosh, there's a revolutionary thought.  maybe that is why they release an estimate, and then a revision.

commiserations on the economy improving. 

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