Initial Claims Continue To YoYo, Beat Estimates On Seasonals; Durable Goods Ex-Transports Slide

Tyler Durden's picture

Here are the initial claims prints in the past 3 weeks: 376K, 352K, 388K, 353K (with the last week number naturally revised higher as always). Why the volatility? Same reason as the plunge two weeks ago: "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline." Naturally, this week's headline will say, 35K improvement in initial claims, and Wall Street will be (un)happy because we had a beat of consensus of 380K, which likely means QE is a little bit further. Looking at the other data point today will provide no help: headline June Durable Goods soared by 1.6%, on expectations of 0.3%, with the previous revised from 1.1% to 1.6%. But the number ex-volatile transports plunged from 0.8% to -1.1%, far below expectations of -0.8%, while Capital Goods orders ex air collapsed from a revised 2.7% to -1.4%. Which number is relevant? Probably the one which can be goalseeked to prolong the EURUSD jawboning rally started at 6 am this morning by Draghi, in which as we already showed, he said nothing new by regurgitating his open ended options, and merely awaits the refutation by Merkel et al who over the past 6 months has become the true European paymaster.

Spot the volatility in initial claims:


and Durable Goods Ex-Transports...


Those curious where inventory stockpiles are, here is the answer:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up twenty-nine of the last thirty months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $366.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.4 percent May increase.

Any minute now, record inventory will result in higher demand for said inventory.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
ihedgemyhedges's picture

No need for auto layoffs.  We have channels to stuff................

GetZeeGold's picture



No jobs.....but we've got lots of cars to choose from here at Honest Al's car lot.


You know they're good........we make them in China.

ptoemmes's picture

Get yours at Barack Obama's New Car Emporium.

60 Day Love It or Return It Guarantee.  

Great financing.  


- Barack Obama, General Manager (GM)

JPM Hater001's picture

The recovery has finally gotten legs.

Time to exit stage left.

Hetty Green's picture

Numbers?  We don't need no stinkin' numbers.  

east paris trader's picture

Love the action in gold this morning.  Dollar pushes lower, so they raid gold and drive it down.  This rally must end!

Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Am I getting this wrong?  Draghi threatens to print to infinity and gold priced in Euros drops off a cliff. Well??

RobotTrader's picture

Next thing we'll start hearing is "Green Shoots" again.


Hey, why isn't gold participating in this Boner Jam?

ihedgemyhedges's picture

The only boner you know about is the one you get masturbating to your avatar...........

LULZBank's picture

No... actually, he also knows another boner...

GetZeeGold's picture



Hey, why isn't gold participating in this Boner Jam?


Maybe you should stop playing with yourself and check the spot price.


You're like a freakin robot with that thing.


Quinvarius's picture

Gold is above the year long descending wedge. 

Dr. No's picture

"How's that working out for you? -- Being clever."

death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Governmet Lies! Bernanke Juices the Market! Algos Run Wild! Until they don't.

RobotTrader's picture

At least you gotta laugh at the market.  It is so sensitive, trillions of wealth is created or evaporated based on jawboning, gum flapping, and pie-holing.

What happens when these guys actually do something instead of talking about it?

Dow will probably be up 500 points on that day.

Dr. No's picture

When are you going to realize, they cant do anything?

LULZBank's picture

When are you going to realise, hes either clueless or just fuckin with you.

SheepDog-One's picture

Robo just cant hide his fanboi admiration for PigMen or his Friday nite 'Boner Jams' at the Blue Swallow bar....he just loves it!

Jlmadyson's picture

My guess is closer to 400K for the final week in July.

Anyhow clearly Draghi has nothing left but talk at this point.

Very likely Spain and Italy will seek external help soon. Spain to be locked out very soon.

otto skorzeny's picture

To QE3 or not to QE3? That is the question.

SheepDog-One's picture

Its a fantasy, they cant do it.

Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Oh they can and they will. But not with Germany in the Eurozone.

Paper CRUSHer's picture

No need,jawboning is just as effective......the bots comply>green on the

Jlmadyson's picture

Oh yea talk about stuffing the channel. Laughable.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Stuffing the channel with a stimulus package

Hype Alert's picture

So we keep building all these durable goods and parking them in inventory.  I'm curious who is ordering all the planes and defense goods.


firstdivision's picture

Anyone here think Goldman was given a heads up on Draghi's intentions today earlier this week when they recommended buying SAP/ITA bonds? 

slyhill's picture

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

SheepDog-One's picture

'QE imminent'? With futures able to rise wildly at the drop of any rumor and no market downside ever allowed here from near all-time highs? They're bullshittin you.

fonzannoon's picture

After watching this horrow show this morning put me in the club that says QE is not coming. As long as these "announcements" still impact this full retard market backed up by "confusing" data implying more time is needed before any action this goes on forever. Or at least until one day you turn on CNBC and all the commentators look at the camera and say "HAHAHA FK YOU!!!" and walk off the set as someone turns out the lights.

fonzannoon's picture

That was liberating. I feel like I just freed myself from my chains of watching everyday with sticks in my eyes waiting for something. I am going for a walk....

PulpCutter's picture

Author of Republican "Deregulate the Banks" plan, Phil Gramm, say HE didn't cause the financial crisis.


Phil Gramm, the former U.S. senator who helped write the 1999 law that enabled the creation of financial giants such as Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp., said his legislation didn’t make the system any riskier.

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act repealed the 1933 prohibition against federally insured depository institutions combining with securities firms and insurers. While his law allows deposit- taking banks to affiliate with securities firms through holding companies, depositors and taxpayers are protected because affiliates can’t take capital out of the banks, Gramm said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Enlarge image

Former U.S. senator Phil Gramm, seen here in a file photo taken in 2002, said yesterday, “Under the law the depositor would not have been affected by a failure of their security affiliate because they weren’t allowed to co-mingle capital.” Photographer: Dennis Brack/Bloomberg

“I don’t see any evidence that allowing them to affiliate through holding companies had anything to do with the financial crisis nor has anybody ever presented any evidence to suggest that it did,” said Gramm, 70. Companies that failed such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “tended to be narrowly focused.”

Sanford “Sandy” Weill, who created Citigroup and pushed for the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, said yesterday on CNBC that he would now support dismantling financial holding companies.

“What we should probably do is go and split up investment banking from banking,” Weill, 79, said in the interview. “Have banks do something that’s not going to risk the taxpayer dollars, that’s not going to be too big to fail.”

Meesohaawnee's picture

oh god please someone put CNBC out of its misery..

GetZeeGold's picture



I threw a grenade in there.....turns out they can't be killed with conventional weapons. Don't have nukes......not sure what more I can do.



azzhatter's picture

they were touting an interview with Chris Dodd this morning when I turned it off. What can that fucktard actually add to a conversation?