Initial Claims Continue To YoYo, Beat Estimates On Seasonals; Durable Goods Ex-Transports Slide

Tyler Durden's picture


Here are the initial claims prints in the past 3 weeks: 376K, 352K, 388K, 353K (with the last week number naturally revised higher as always). Why the volatility? Same reason as the plunge two weeks ago: "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline." Naturally, this week's headline will say, 35K improvement in initial claims, and Wall Street will be (un)happy because we had a beat of consensus of 380K, which likely means QE is a little bit further. Looking at the other data point today will provide no help: headline June Durable Goods soared by 1.6%, on expectations of 0.3%, with the previous revised from 1.1% to 1.6%. But the number ex-volatile transports plunged from 0.8% to -1.1%, far below expectations of -0.8%, while Capital Goods orders ex air collapsed from a revised 2.7% to -1.4%. Which number is relevant? Probably the one which can be goalseeked to prolong the EURUSD jawboning rally started at 6 am this morning by Draghi, in which as we already showed, he said nothing new by regurgitating his open ended options, and merely awaits the refutation by Merkel et al who over the past 6 months has become the true European paymaster.

Spot the volatility in initial claims:


and Durable Goods Ex-Transports...


Those curious where inventory stockpiles are, here is the answer:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up twenty-nine of the last thirty months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $366.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.4 percent May increase.

Any minute now, record inventory will result in higher demand for said inventory.

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Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:46 | 2652666 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

No need for auto layoffs.  We have channels to stuff................

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:53 | 2652686 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



No jobs.....but we've got lots of cars to choose from here at Honest Al's car lot.


You know they're good........we make them in China.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:10 | 2652762 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Get yours at Barack Obama's New Car Emporium.

60 Day Love It or Return It Guarantee.  

Great financing.  


- Barack Obama, General Manager (GM)

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:46 | 2652668 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

The recovery has finally gotten legs.

Time to exit stage left.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:47 | 2652670 Hetty Green
Hetty Green's picture

Numbers?  We don't need no stinkin' numbers.  

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:47 | 2652672 east paris trader
east paris trader's picture

Love the action in gold this morning.  Dollar pushes lower, so they raid gold and drive it down.  This rally must end!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:11 | 2652770 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Am I getting this wrong?  Draghi threatens to print to infinity and gold priced in Euros drops off a cliff. Well??

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:47 | 2652673 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Next thing we'll start hearing is "Green Shoots" again.


Hey, why isn't gold participating in this Boner Jam?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:49 | 2652677 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

The only boner you know about is the one you get masturbating to your avatar...........

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:51 | 2652689 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

No... actually, he also knows another boner...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:57 | 2652705 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Hey, why isn't gold participating in this Boner Jam?


Maybe you should stop playing with yourself and check the spot price.


You're like a freakin robot with that thing.


Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:53 | 2652694 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Gold is above the year long descending wedge. 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:53 | 2652697 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"How's that working out for you? -- Being clever."

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:50 | 2652679 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Governmet Lies! Bernanke Juices the Market! Algos Run Wild! Until they don't.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:50 | 2652684 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

At least you gotta laugh at the market.  It is so sensitive, trillions of wealth is created or evaporated based on jawboning, gum flapping, and pie-holing.

What happens when these guys actually do something instead of talking about it?

Dow will probably be up 500 points on that day.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:54 | 2652698 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

When are you going to realize, they cant do anything?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:57 | 2652711 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

When are you going to realise, hes either clueless or just fuckin with you.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:02 | 2652713 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robo just cant hide his fanboi admiration for PigMen or his Friday nite 'Boner Jams' at the Blue Swallow bar....he just loves it!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:50 | 2652685 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

My guess is closer to 400K for the final week in July.

Anyhow clearly Draghi has nothing left but talk at this point.

Very likely Spain and Italy will seek external help soon. Spain to be locked out very soon.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:51 | 2652690 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

To QE3 or not to QE3? That is the question.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:59 | 2652718 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its a fantasy, they cant do it.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:13 | 2652776 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Oh they can and they will. But not with Germany in the Eurozone.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:18 | 2652788 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, no they wont.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:10 | 2652767 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

No need,jawboning is just as effective......the bots comply>green on the

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:54 | 2652699 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oh yea talk about stuffing the channel. Laughable.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:58 | 2652714 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Stuffing the channel with a stimulus package

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:58 | 2652712 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

So we keep building all these durable goods and parking them in inventory.  I'm curious who is ordering all the planes and defense goods.


Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:01 | 2652723 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Anyone here think Goldman was given a heads up on Draghi's intentions today earlier this week when they recommended buying SAP/ITA bonds? 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:03 | 2652730 slyhill
slyhill's picture

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:04 | 2652740 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'QE imminent'? With futures able to rise wildly at the drop of any rumor and no market downside ever allowed here from near all-time highs? They're bullshittin you.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:09 | 2652759 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

After watching this horrow show this morning put me in the club that says QE is not coming. As long as these "announcements" still impact this full retard market backed up by "confusing" data implying more time is needed before any action this goes on forever. Or at least until one day you turn on CNBC and all the commentators look at the camera and say "HAHAHA FK YOU!!!" and walk off the set as someone turns out the lights.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:11 | 2652771 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL exactly!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:14 | 2652780 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That was liberating. I feel like I just freed myself from my chains of watching everyday with sticks in my eyes waiting for something. I am going for a walk....

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:12 | 2652774 Snakeeyes
Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:14 | 2652775 PulpCutter
PulpCutter's picture

Author of Republican "Deregulate the Banks" plan, Phil Gramm, say HE didn't cause the financial crisis.


Phil Gramm, the former U.S. senator who helped write the 1999 law that enabled the creation of financial giants such as Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp., said his legislation didn’t make the system any riskier.

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act repealed the 1933 prohibition against federally insured depository institutions combining with securities firms and insurers. While his law allows deposit- taking banks to affiliate with securities firms through holding companies, depositors and taxpayers are protected because affiliates can’t take capital out of the banks, Gramm said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Enlarge image

Former U.S. senator Phil Gramm, seen here in a file photo taken in 2002, said yesterday, “Under the law the depositor would not have been affected by a failure of their security affiliate because they weren’t allowed to co-mingle capital.” Photographer: Dennis Brack/Bloomberg

“I don’t see any evidence that allowing them to affiliate through holding companies had anything to do with the financial crisis nor has anybody ever presented any evidence to suggest that it did,” said Gramm, 70. Companies that failed such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “tended to be narrowly focused.”

Sanford “Sandy” Weill, who created Citigroup and pushed for the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, said yesterday on CNBC that he would now support dismantling financial holding companies.

“What we should probably do is go and split up investment banking from banking,” Weill, 79, said in the interview. “Have banks do something that’s not going to risk the taxpayer dollars, that’s not going to be too big to fail.”

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:23 | 2652803 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

oh god please someone put CNBC out of its misery..

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 10:08 | 2652813 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I threw a grenade in there.....turns out they can't be killed with conventional weapons. Don't have nukes......not sure what more I can do.



Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:39 | 2652841 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

they were touting an interview with Chris Dodd this morning when I turned it off. What can that fucktard actually add to a conversation?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 10:07 | 2652974 covert
covert's picture

and the rest of the cnbc copycats also.

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