• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Initial Claims "Decline" Following Last Week's Revision, Durable Goods Ex-Transportation Miss Big

Tyler Durden's picture


In a absolutely shocking development, initial claims for the week ended May 5 printed in line with expectations of 370K, but to make the Mainstream Media's life easy and unleash all those "Initial Claims Decline by 2,000" headlines, last week's number was increased from 370K to 372K (ignore that NSA number increased by 2,515). Continuing claims missed expectations of 3250K printing at 3260K, but down from an upward revised 3289K. Needs to say this week's 370K adjusted print will be revised higher to 372-373K and the MSM will fall for it all over again. More importantly, the ongoing collapse in those collecting extended benefits now that legislation has halted extensions is becoming more acute: 40K dropped off Extended Claims and EUCs.

More importantly, Durable Goods rose by 0.2% in April to $215.5 billion, as expected. However, when removing the traditionally volatile transportation component, Durable goods slid by 0.6% on expectation of a 0.8% increase; compared to -0.8% in March; Cutting out Capital Goods and Non-Defense Aircraft, the collapse was even worse, printing at -1.9% on expectations of a 0.8% print. And the March number was slashed from -0.8% to -2.2%. The is now the second in a row (see below). Cue downward revisions to Q2 GDP any second.

From Bloomberg:

  • "Very weak’’ orders for non-defense capital goods ex. aircraft “bodes poorly for capital spending in future GDP reports,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • 1.4% decline in non-defense capital goods shipments “weak start” for 2Q business investment

And cue horrible news is great news.

Update: sure enough, here it comes:

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Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:51 | 2458405 kito
kito's picture

its not easy to be the odd man out in a world filled with delusional don quixotes de la mancha......

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:18 | 2458488 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

If we can expense studies done to save the snail darter ... could we not do an public/transparent analysis of the Fed's policy to prop markets up.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 11:47 | 2459057 hawks5999
hawks5999's picture

Speaking of props... isn't this the time of the month that we hear about GM's channel stuffing? Or did that volatile "transportation" number clear their channel?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:51 | 2458406 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



How will they handle the revisions once there are no more people left to fire?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:56 | 2458422 veyron
veyron's picture

There is an endless supply of people to be hired and fired

Worst case the fed can backstop unemployment.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:58 | 2458427 clones2
clones2's picture

It's all part of the BLS's 105% employment initiative...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:52 | 2458408 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Hooray! I feel less unemployed today and feel suddenly like I was more employed last week.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:52 | 2458410 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

40K drop off. Going to be a hot time summer in the city

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:52 | 2458411 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Said it before and I will say it again - "we will be beating expectations all the way down".  At this point it really will become a perception management crisis.  Laughable.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:56 | 2458421 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It will become? This has been the biggest soap opera in history.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:27 | 2458518 narnia
narnia's picture

Painting a rosy, delusuonal picture of this economy is actually hurting the government.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:04 | 2458648 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Always one to find the bright side, eh?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:54 | 2458413 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



"weak start"

Hmmm...any indications whatsoever that May is posting a big turnaround?  Methinks April will be the crown jewel of Q2 once the tallies are in.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:55 | 2458417 spooz
spooz's picture

Horrible is good if it improves the odds of more QE

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2458429 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yes, shocking, just Shocking!! lol

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:03 | 2458443 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Wish I could work for the legacy media and make big $$$ recycling the same articles every week.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:56 | 2458612 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Wish I could work for the B(L)S...

Making good $$$ and a fat retirement (80% @ 55 with full fancy medical), plus 4 weeks vacation and 3 weeks paid sick leave...

For having my error laden statistical work massively revised every week....

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:05 | 2458449 agNau
agNau's picture

What worries me most is the possibility of the Government intentionally lying about important figures like these now that H.R. 4310 is in place.
God help us!

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2458463 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Quite frankly, things have been in place for years. H.R. 4310 is just the public perception of it.



Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:15 | 2458477 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Chain gangs" are nothing new.  That is basically all this is, with the exception of being horribly inefficient and more expensive then it has to be.  You would be surprised how many inmates can be managed with a semi-automatic shotgun and the right rounds.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:24 | 2458512 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

From WiKi

Prison camps

The regulation also sets forth policy for the creation of prison camps on Army installations. These would be used to keep inmates of the labor programs resident on the installations.

In January 2006, Kellogg, Brown and Root reported that they had received a contract from the Department of Homeland Security to expand ICE DRO facilities "in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs."[6] A February news article comments that the "new programs" mentioned could include the Civilian Inmate Labor Program.[7][unreliable source?] ICE has "joint federal facilities" with the Federal Bureau of Prisons.[8]


Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2458623 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Jail the REAL criminals...

Start with Jamie & The Corz and their bitch Barry Soetoro...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:06 | 2458450 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

'Cue downward revisions to Q2 GDP any second.'  Should read: Cue revisions to how GDP is calculated any second.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:07 | 2458453 youngman
youngman's picture

I bet ATM sales in the EU are up big....have to handle all those withdrawels...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:13 | 2458473 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

I think it's safe to say anybody who has been paying attention for the last year or so already knew how this weeks print would fall.

same as last week, and the week before that, and the week before that and so on...

I wonder at what point does the PTB's public perception management program become a played out, pointless exercise in futility?

apparently not just yet...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:17 | 2458487 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Does it really suprise anyone that the first thing a FEMA coordinator will make sure you have access to is a television?

When folks are forced to have to deal with each other and reality, then it will be played out, not before.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:21 | 2458503 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

"access to a television"

you hit it tap dead center...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:16 | 2458483 bdc63
bdc63's picture

you gotta hand it to them -- the BLS has been getting away with this for YEARS.

... and the media hasn't felt any need to point it out ... for YEARS ...

It's all just a "nod and a wink" among the players who are confident that the "dumb money" isn't smart enough to question it or figure it out for themselves.


Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:18 | 2458490 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You forgot "Knowledge is Power", oh wait, I see what you did there.  Clever.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:43 | 2458559 Wreckless
Wreckless's picture

Nothing to see citizen...nothing to see...move along now and pick up your Soylent Green ration.


Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:43 | 2458561 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Even  worse, initial jobless claims are back at mid December 2011 levels. Nice boom in employment! ... NOT!

And average weeks unemployed is at all-time high.

At least Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported that house prices had the biggest monthly gain in history!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111


Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:56 | 2458616 Hohum
Hohum's picture

It should also be mentioned that YOY claims (NSA) down 49K. That's not so bad, right?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2458669 Curt W
Curt W's picture


All the way down to 370 K

Why just 8 weeks ago we were way up at 349 K

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 11:07 | 2458883 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Thank goodness for the offensive aircraft.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2459052 erheault
erheault's picture

This feeding of mis information will go untill zero is reelected to be the Grand Wizard for another 4 years, But I think that the wheels will fall off before summer is over there is way too many disinchanted sheeple out there especially the ones who have lost jobs and homes and have nothing else to loose.

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