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Initial Claims "Decline" Following Last Week's Revision, Durable Goods Ex-Transportation Miss Big
In a absolutely shocking development, initial claims for the week ended May 5 printed in line with expectations of 370K, but to make the Mainstream Media's life easy and unleash all those "Initial Claims Decline by 2,000" headlines, last week's number was increased from 370K to 372K (ignore that NSA number increased by 2,515). Continuing claims missed expectations of 3250K printing at 3260K, but down from an upward revised 3289K. Needs to say this week's 370K adjusted print will be revised higher to 372-373K and the MSM will fall for it all over again. More importantly, the ongoing collapse in those collecting extended benefits now that legislation has halted extensions is becoming more acute: 40K dropped off Extended Claims and EUCs.
More importantly, Durable Goods rose by 0.2% in April to $215.5 billion, as expected. However, when removing the traditionally volatile transportation component, Durable goods slid by 0.6% on expectation of a 0.8% increase; compared to -0.8% in March; Cutting out Capital Goods and Non-Defense Aircraft, the collapse was even worse, printing at -1.9% on expectations of a 0.8% print. And the March number was slashed from -0.8% to -2.2%. The is now the second in a row (see below). Cue downward revisions to Q2 GDP any second.
From Bloomberg:
- "Very weak’’ orders for non-defense capital goods ex. aircraft “bodes poorly for capital spending in future GDP reports,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
- 1.4% decline in non-defense capital goods shipments “weak start” for 2Q business investment
And cue horrible news is great news.
Update: sure enough, here it comes:
BREAKING: Initial Jobless Claims fall 2k to 370k for week ending May 19.
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 24, 2012
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its not easy to be the odd man out in a world filled with delusional don quixotes de la mancha......
If we can expense studies done to save the snail darter ... could we not do an public/transparent analysis of the Fed's policy to prop markets up.
Speaking of props... isn't this the time of the month that we hear about GM's channel stuffing? Or did that volatile "transportation" number clear their channel?
How will they handle the revisions once there are no more people left to fire?
There is an endless supply of people to be hired and fired
Worst case the fed can backstop unemployment.
It's all part of the BLS's 105% employment initiative...
Hooray! I feel less unemployed today and feel suddenly like I was more employed last week.
40K drop off. Going to be a hot time summer in the city
Said it before and I will say it again - "we will be beating expectations all the way down". At this point it really will become a perception management crisis. Laughable.
It will become? This has been the biggest soap opera in history.
Painting a rosy, delusuonal picture of this economy is actually hurting the government.
Always one to find the bright side, eh?
"weak start"
Hmmm...any indications whatsoever that May is posting a big turnaround? Methinks April will be the crown jewel of Q2 once the tallies are in.
Horrible is good if it improves the odds of more QE
Yes, shocking, just Shocking!! lol
Wish I could work for the legacy media and make big $$$ recycling the same articles every week.
Wish I could work for the B(L)S...
Making good $$$ and a fat retirement (80% @ 55 with full fancy medical), plus 4 weeks vacation and 3 weeks paid sick leave...
For having my error laden statistical work massively revised every week....
What worries me most is the possibility of the Government intentionally lying about important figures like these now that H.R. 4310 is in place.
God help us!
Quite frankly, things have been in place for years. H.R. 4310 is just the public perception of it.
http://www.army.mil/usapa/epubs/pdf/r210_35.pdf
"Chain gangs" are nothing new. That is basically all this is, with the exception of being horribly inefficient and more expensive then it has to be. You would be surprised how many inmates can be managed with a semi-automatic shotgun and the right rounds.
From WiKi
Prison camps
The regulation also sets forth policy for the creation of prison camps on Army installations. These would be used to keep inmates of the labor programs resident on the installations.
In January 2006, Kellogg, Brown and Root reported that they had received a contract from the Department of Homeland Security to expand ICE DRO facilities "in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs."[6] A February news article comments that the "new programs" mentioned could include the Civilian Inmate Labor Program.[7][unreliable source?] ICE has "joint federal facilities" with the Federal Bureau of Prisons.[8]
Jail the REAL criminals...
Start with Jamie & The Corz and their bitch Barry Soetoro...
'Cue downward revisions to Q2 GDP any second.' Should read: Cue revisions to how GDP is calculated any second.
I bet ATM sales in the EU are up big....have to handle all those withdrawels...
I think it's safe to say anybody who has been paying attention for the last year or so already knew how this weeks print would fall.
same as last week, and the week before that, and the week before that and so on...
I wonder at what point does the PTB's public perception management program become a played out, pointless exercise in futility?
apparently not just yet...
Does it really suprise anyone that the first thing a FEMA coordinator will make sure you have access to is a television?
When folks are forced to have to deal with each other and reality, then it will be played out, not before.
"access to a television"
you hit it tap dead center...
you gotta hand it to them -- the BLS has been getting away with this for YEARS.
... and the media hasn't felt any need to point it out ... for YEARS ...
It's all just a "nod and a wink" among the players who are confident that the "dumb money" isn't smart enough to question it or figure it out for themselves.
Welcome to the Ministry of Truth: "WAR IS PEACE" "FREEDOM IS SLAVERY" "IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH"
You forgot "Knowledge is Power", oh wait, I see what you did there. Clever.
Nothing to see citizen...nothing to see...move along now and pick up your Soylent Green ration.
Even worse, initial jobless claims are back at mid December 2011 levels. Nice boom in employment! ... NOT!
And average weeks unemployed is at all-time high.
At least Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported that house prices had the biggest monthly gain in history!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/24/initial-jobless-claims-same-as-mid-december-2011-and-other-government-data-peculiarites/
It should also be mentioned that YOY claims (NSA) down 49K. That's not so bad, right?
Wow
All the way down to 370 K
Why just 8 weeks ago we were way up at 349 K
Thank goodness for the offensive aircraft.
This feeding of mis information will go untill zero is reelected to be the Grand Wizard for another 4 years, But I think that the wheels will fall off before summer is over there is way too many disinchanted sheeple out there especially the ones who have lost jobs and homes and have nothing else to loose.