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Initial Claims Finally Beat Expectations As Prior Number Revised Higher As Usual

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Well, we were half right earlier when we predicted a miss in claims coupled with a material upward revision in the prior number. We did get the revision from 388K to 392K for the week ended April 21, but the current week, which was expected to print at 379K, came at a far better 365K, a drop of 27,000 from the revised number, which happens to be the biggest percentage drop since July 2011, and the biggest expectations beat since July 2009. In other words, baffle them with bullshit as economic doctrine continues: will NFP beat tomorrow, won't it? All depends on when Bernanke feels like launching the NEW QE. In other words, the number came in good (for the first time in 6 weeks), which of course is horrible news for a market which continues to levitate higher on hopes of more monetary heroin.

Biggest expectations beat since July 2009:

In other news, continuing claims came at 3276K on expectations of 3311K, from an upward revised 3329K, Non Farm productivity declined less than expected or -0.5%, on Exp. of -0.6%, and finally those falling off extended benefit claims, including EUCs, was a whopping 62.3K: these are people who no longer get a $400 monthly paycheck from Uncle Sam.

 

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Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:41 | 2393356 lizzy36
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So QE3 is off but QE4 is on?

Victory for the bulls!!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:43 | 2393362 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The keyword here being Initial.

 

......OK everyone put on their shocked faces.

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:50 | 2393381 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

The central planning operation these days is to keep bullshitting till the bullshit becomes the Normal. That's how society and humanity has degraded to where it is now.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:52 | 2393391 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Is there some place in Vegas to bet on these numbers......cause I'm pretty sure I know what next months numbers are going to be as well.

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:59 | 2393413 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

Given that the weather plays such an important role in job creation futures should be traded on a commodities exchange. What would be better, holding a paper jobless claim or physical?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:56 | 2393400 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It works until it doesn't. I'm thinking this might be a most excellent day to pick up those 'Just-before-the-market-tanked positions' I'm aiming for VXX 15.80

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:07 | 2393436 HD
HD's picture

The street can't accept that come election day - main street does not care about S&P 1400. They will care about $5 gas and 10 Peanut Butter. Considering the retail outflows, the market going higher would only build resentment, not inspire confidence.

Ben's hands are tired. Any printing will have to come from the other central banks for the time being...

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:21 | 2393862 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

This is really screwing with my time series.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2393360 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Tyler, yes you were half right.  Good thing you have me as a contributor to pick up the slack!!

Sincerely, R. Brusca

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:44 | 2393368 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We've just been Brusca'd!!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:49 | 2393530 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Yeah, but no matter what Brusca says or does, the number that tells the entire story is food stamp participation. If there was just some way we could 'seasonally adjust it.' Oh wait, those people don't vote. Nothing to see here . . . move along sir.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2393361 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I expect we will be "beating" expectations all the way down.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:46 | 2393375 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thank goodness we have the 'experts' who put out their 'expectations' to be beat to show how things are really not so bad! Anyone know the name of 1 'Expectationer'?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2393387 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I cannot name one, but will simply add  - Long sharecropping!

 

Possession is the law now (why China is buying all kinds of commodities hand over fist).

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:18 | 2393457 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Considering how their economy is slowing you have to wonder if they know something the others don't. Well at least they help to keep gas prices up.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:58 | 2393408 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

A remarkable game that most everyone seems willing to play.  I got on my soapbox last week about how meaningless GDP is.  It correlates to money printing and the debt ramp and little else.  Misery is hidden in the stat.  But even the stats that don't hide misery... i.e. unemployment... 1. hide real unemployment and 2. play 3-card monte with "expectations".  They are good and we are dumb.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:13 | 2393445 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

These experts are getting their asses handed to them week after week as someone always beats their forecast. What expert misses on their forecasts this often? I would contend they are not experts but rather a novice if thats the case. We all know this is a game and we are tired of the nonsense.

You can't make this bs up except they do every day.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:15 | 2393451 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Stop the cynicism!  USA! USA! USA!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:43 | 2393363 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SURPRISE!!!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:42 | 2393365 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Shocking really....

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2393370 ndotken
ndotken's picture

It seems every week another 375K-400K people lose their job and file new jobless claims ... and since Obama has been elected, 2 million new jobs have been created ... does anyone else see a problem with this math?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:46 | 2393377 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Thought criminal!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:03 | 2393416 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

ndotken

Are they merely filing, or they filing and receiving benefits?

350,000 x 52 = 18,200,000

That is a fucking lot of people filing for UE.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:03 | 2393578 ndotken
ndotken's picture

I have no idea ... I'm a banker ... so I just sell a bunch of shit ... I'm really not very good with numbers

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:03 | 2393417 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

My math has 19,000,000 jobs lost each year.

 

Lufthansa says it will cut 3,500 administrative jobs in bid to improve profitability - @nytimesbusiness
Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2393371 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Govt data is like bullshit...

when it's hot and fresh, you can shape it to look like anything you want.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:44 | 2393373 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why are there still people left to fire?  Why is the number above 100k?  That is what I want to know. 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:59 | 2393410 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Because some people work in the public sector.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2393374 tinsmith
tinsmith's picture

Please. The 365 will be revised to 381 so that the next print of 378 will 'continue the decrease'. These numbers are massaged to the point of limpness, hence no 'happy ending'. But it's o.k., the hits just keep on coming.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:45 | 2393376 crawl
crawl's picture

Tomorrow's NFP can't come in worse than expected, can it?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:49 | 2393380 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Goldman dropped their number to 125k I think, so expect 350k tomorrow.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:11 | 2393437 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So we can get a stock ramp today based on expectations beat good news and tomorrow get more stock ramping on greater QE expectations.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:50 | 2393383 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So yet again they dont go for the 'crisis' and instead put out a comfortable numbers beat, but 'QE3/4New' is of course still a given, to be baked in yet again as we coast along on fumes and 1 wing. 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:59 | 2393412 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I personally need a few more feel good articles from the msm assuring me that Bernanke is all knowing. I could also use EVERYONE in the msm making sure that when they argue inflation statistics, that the argument is whether it is 2% or below. Once that is cemented in my head they can go ahead with QE3 because geez....We need the inflation!

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:52 | 2393388 chubbar
chubbar's picture

OT but Martin Armstrong has an interesting rant he put out a couple of days ago followed by a cryptic reference to a future announcement.

http://www.inflateordie.com/files/Beware%20Lame%20Duck%20Congress%2005-01-2012.pdf

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:52 | 2393392 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

That's the worst part about kicking heroin.  When you finally sober up and look around you at the shithole your life has become, it is very depressing.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2393393 BandGap
BandGap's picture

That's $400 a WEEK, Tyler.  Party money when you don't pay rent/mortgage and are getting SNAP food. Youza!

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:52 | 2393395 zonetraders
Thu, 05/03/2012 - 08:55 | 2393399 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Ok, guys, but gold is now testing $1,638/oz. It is a tough, tough situation to be in. And we have not seen the algo from the BIS act yet. This is not good news.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:04 | 2393418 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Gold is not an investment.  It is the only a safe store of value in troubled economic times (to be purchased during good economic times) and the avergae cost of the gold in my portfolio is under $400 and ounce so who fucking cares.  If you are buying gold as an "investment" you are complete missing the point.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:04 | 2393420 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hope they march Gartman out there to tell me what I should be doing/have done/undid/did again.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:30 | 2393487 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's not an easy time to own short duration calls on GLD or SLV. On the other hand you still have your first-of-the-month money to buy physical you might be smiling. Act fast if you do since they haven't been having much luck with those attacks recently, a few hours only most days.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:06 | 2393423 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

The propaganda machine is in full swing and it's beautiful. 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:06 | 2393424 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

So. it gives the Bernanke and his handlers an excuse to not do more QE. The QE serves no real purpose in the plan for total control.

They have to find a way to screw the gold buyers and preppers; which also means double crossing a lot the peeps that thought of themselves as "insiders", but are really only expendale foot soldiers.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:15 | 2393426 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Did we ever resolve whether or not BLS claims data should look like an election (is a sample) where 90% of the tallied vote should give you a pretty accurate idea of the total percentages /amounts (and the last 10% of the vote shouldn’t result in a “surprise”) …or is all late-breaking initial claims data additive meaning that revised numbers  *should* generally be biased upward as  post-report data makes the total larger?

 

Or is there (also) "adjustment" funny business going on?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:07 | 2393428 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Looks like gold is on sale again.

Can't we all just go on unemployment?  Would be bullish for AAPL and Starbucks.

Hey, what's that?  Sales at Costco and Target lower than expected?

That's it, time for QE3 Ben.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:09 | 2393431 catalyst21
catalyst21's picture

If the BLS (Ministry of Truth) is going to keep giving screwing us from behind why can't they at least hold a televised "news" conference and have the weekly number delivered by Michelle Caruso-Cabrera or similar looking talking head.

As she is delivering the number the cameras can zoom in on what we're all looking at and we can all go into happy newspeak mode.  It would give a whole new meaning to the phrase "BEATING EXPECTATIONS" 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:10 | 2393434 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Which wing of the corporate party is in control right now? Do they have a reason to massage numbers? Am I just paranoid?

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:11 | 2393440 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Expect an ongoing series of positive employment data over the next six months. Obama wants to be reelected.

Unemployment will fall under 8%, perhaps approaching 7%

The national debt will not be allowed to exceed the debt ceiling before the election

The CPI will continue to be reported below reality

Deaths of US soldiers in Afghanistan will continue to be ignored

The DOW will continue upward to $14K+

Reality be damned; all that counts is the narrative.

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:17 | 2393454 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So now theyre going for no QE? Funny the consencsus everyone had just a couple weeks ago was QE is definitely going to happen very soon, so stocks could go up to make Obummer 'look good' etc etc....theyve gone with 'baffle em with bullshit' to make stocks go up till fall now. You sure theyve got the fuel for that? I'm not.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:41 | 2393508 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Elections have nothing to do with ideological shifts and everything to do with a systematic progression to serfdom.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:23 | 2393469 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Economic numbers have been a lie (lies, damn lies and statistics) for a couple of generations now.  The longer you buy the idea that the cartel who appoints the president gives a damn which one you "elect", the longer reality will escape your grasp.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:52 | 2393543 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The willing suspension of disbelief is the glue that holds the contemporary world together.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:29 | 2393477 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Seriously, this is all noise.  Someone upthread mentioned that the Obama economy has added a gazillion jobs, yet we keep seeing the ranks of the unemployed swell by 300K every week.  There's a fundamental problem here.  This report is massaged by the Ministry of Labor Propaganda, and anyone who's paying attention knows it.  The government is merely trying to calm the sheeple on a week-by-week basis until election day.

The problem is that the US economy is floundering.  To get the unemployment rate significantly lower we need growth, which is something the Democrats have failed at the last 4-5 years, and the Republicans have been neutered as they only hold one chamber of Congress.    You need jobless claims to be sub-200K for months to see us come close.

 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:55 | 2393554 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I've decided to hope for change and vote Republican in November. I doubt I will be disappointed. I listen to Romney and he has a plan to save us, to get us all back to work and growing again. I can't see any reason to disbelieve.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:02 | 2393576 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Plus he's not a marxist/communist/socialist/islamofascist/anti-American like the current president.  This is fascinating to watch.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:44 | 2393736 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Romney is a mirror image of the majority of ALL politicians in DC. ALL pander and are beholden to corporate interests and the pos banksters.

Believing that Romney is any different is well, a bit foolish. I understand the disdain for comrade obama, I share it as well. BUT, I will not vote for another talking-head, stuffed-suit who will get in bed with the bloodsucking, scumbag banksters and mega-corporations who hold all the strings. Fuck them all.

As long as we are basically forced to choose between the two corrupt, similar and like-minded parties, nothing will change. The so-called 'differences' in ideology is just theater for the masses.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:27 | 2393480 adr
adr's picture

After last week when the MSM actually started talking about how the decline was due to the previous week being revised up, the BLS had to create a real beat.

Of course next week this week will be revised up, perhaps even the greatest mean revision over the last three years. 

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:28 | 2393485 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

This is where the world is heading "GET READY"

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/5/3_Bil...

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 09:32 | 2393492 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Apparently investors sell gold when jobless claims decline. I did not know that.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/kitcoNewsMarketNuggets20120503.html

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:04 | 2393586 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Things must be great.  Initial claims NSA are down about 85K YOY.

Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:26 | 2393806 LarryDavis
LarryDavis's picture

I think we need to give more subsidies and incentives to the world of finance. That way things trickle down. I feel like US companies are going to repatriate money this year and start hiring. 

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