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Initial Claims In Holiday Shortened Week Drop To 350K From Upward Revised 376K Due To "One-Time Factors"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

First the expected: last week's 374K in initial claims was revised upward to 376K as is now the norm. Then the unexpected: this week's initial claims dropped to 350K, well below expectations of 372K, and purely an artifact of the holiday shortened week as this was the biggest miss to expectations since November 2008. Of course, the Not Seasonally Adjusted claims number rising by 70K is very much irrelevant: it is all about statistical smoothing as those who have leaked access to early release BLS data will tell us. Finally, here is what the BLS actually said: "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline." Continuing claims did miss expectations of 3300K printing at 3304K, and down from a revised 3318K. The market reaction is typical schizophrenia: first risk is up on "better than expected" news, then right back down as the meme spreads that this makes the NEW QE even less realistic. Our condolences to all whose job it is to trade this newsflow. Finally, in the all important cliff category, another 13K fell off extended claims programs, and no longer are eligible for Uncle Sam funded X-Box 360 playtime compensation.

and non-seasonally adjusted initial claims are rising rapidly towards their 5 year average as this July period's seasonal pattern is likely a major fact in the big beat in Claims SA - which bodes ill for the next few weeks as the seasonal unwinds...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:36 | 2609469 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

My condolences to all whose (lost) job is this newsflow.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:48 | 2609509 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

How 'bout the plunge in import/export prices.  Export prices went straight down the toilet.  QE3 ain't dead with this report.......

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:56 | 2609534 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

qe will never die. at least everyone (hopefully) now knows that "the market" is a farce. bennie is the conductor and the (overpaid) orchestra is a bunch of washboards, cider jugs, etc..

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:51 | 2609514 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

As of 5:00 pm tomorrow I will be in next week's count.  Second time in the last 18 months.  

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:00 | 2609546 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

that sux :(

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:17 | 2609586 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Not to worry as gov't statisticians will seasonally adjust your claim away..........

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 10:05 | 2609720 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yeah, that does indeed suck.

"...another 13K fell off extended claims programs, and no longer are eligible for Uncle Sam funded X-Box 360 playtime compensation."

If one o' them uncompensated folks robs my house in desparation, I'm gonna come over to the BLS HQ and whoop some ass.  Or, at the least, rummage around in their trash cans and make a helluva mess.

Fri, 07/13/2012 - 01:17 | 2611983 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

A 'coon's gotta do what a 'coon's gotta do! LOL :>D

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:38 | 2609473 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Can't file a jobless claim if you're on SSDI either................and with 85K claiming that just last month, no surprise here when combined with July 4 falling midweek......

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:39 | 2609482 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Meanwhile Gubment Motors still pumping and channel stuffing when they usually layoff for retooling!!

What a country!!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:41 | 2609491 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Ahhhhhh, pumping and stuffing the channel.  The good ole pre-marriage days..............

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:44 | 2609499 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

As always.......just wait......the the revisions.

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:49 | 2609511 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Not to worry, the channels will be cleared thanks to government back-stopped 60+ month financing!  There is your QE3!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2609533 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Not to worry, the channels will be cleared thanks to government back-stopped 60+ month financing!  There is your QE3!

Not to worry, the channels will be cleared thanks to government back-stopped 60+ month sub-prime financing!  There fixed it for you...........

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:56 | 2609536 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Or the DOE will buy them. Hey doesn't that mean we, the taxpayer, are buying them?  I want a new Burb - make that a Sclade with twenty fours.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:02 | 2609549 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Government-owned ALLY/GMAC is ALREADY financing 480 score credit criminals on new GM cars, and they are giving away VOLTS for $249 a month/Cruizes for $149, to these same Credit Criminals.

But, don't worry, YOU will be paying to bail out GM and ALLY again if Obama is reelected!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:05 | 2609560 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

60 months is so 2007. Now we do 72 months, keeping the american way affordable

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:19 | 2609589 adr
adr's picture

No, the 580 credit score gang gets deals like 96 month 6.9% financing. Don't laugh it's true.

They don't care about the end cost, just the monthly payment. With such a low credit score, they don't care about getting the car reposessed.

I've had scumbag salesmen come at me with numbers like $429 for 72 months on a $18k car. My next comment is, "Your fucking insane."

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:15 | 2610569 laomei
laomei's picture

Yep, SSDI is the new thing to claim instead of bothering with UI once it starts expiring.  And the cool thing is that it effectively removes you from the labor force stats, so the numbers can all be juked.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:38 | 2609481 james larson
james larson's picture

Seasonal adjustment smooths out reality

 

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 439,743 in the week ending July 7, an increase of 69,971 from the previous week. There were 473,963 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent during the week ending June 30, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,102,691, a decrease of 42,328 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 3,534,925.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending June 23 was 5,874,035, an increase of 17,011 from the previous week.

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:54 | 2609679 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Yep, 34K lower YOY not seasonally adjusted, but down 60K year over year seasonally adjusted.  WTF!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:44 | 2609485 monopoly
monopoly's picture

They did not mention the holiday shortened week on the TV. Must just be an oversght. Riigght!!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:41 | 2609490 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The sun sets further on hopes of QE3-4.NEW or whatever.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:46 | 2609501 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC should run the show 'Intervention' all day....its what the markets are about now. out of people to borrow more money from and places to crash overnite. Markets, yer on yer OWN.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:46 | 2609503 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

how did the blowhorn manage to have the crawl "claims lowest since 2008" only seconds after the print? thats some really fast calcs in the writers mind isnt it..

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:51 | 2609517 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC and all Wall St whores now backed in a corner touting 'good news'.....exact opposite of what free money greedy markets want to hear.

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:49 | 2609512 Monkeyfister
Monkeyfister's picture

So Unemployment Claims are down, and Market Futures are dropping, "on the economic news." Cynical Banksters.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:49 | 2609513 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

So with a run rate of 18,800 / day of initial claims means the number would have been closer to 368,000.

No worries, just throw in another 1800 "births" of businesses.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2609522 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Import and Export prices are ugly.  We're importing and exporting deflation!

Also, the 10Y is on the cusp of staying below 1.5

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2609538 Alexmai
Alexmai's picture

Good job report will make things worse because it will dely QE3, if QE3 is not coming sept, market will drop further, that is for sure

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 08:59 | 2609544 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i guess at the end of the day it all doesnt matter. Ben and Timmy are on a conference call as we speak trying to figure out what to tell the algos  they want the print to finish at today

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:10 | 2609574 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Just read the CLUELESS missive by Denninger at The Market Ticker, and the more CLUELESS - is that possible - comments by his Kool-Aid group.

Thank gawd for ZeroHedge!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:13 | 2609576 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Look at how this is being reported by the whores in the media.  A complte lie as aways .  What the fuck kind of countruyy is this that the media lies about everything and misleads the public for poltitical gain?  It is not a free country and its best the sheep wake up and realize its either leve this place or get ready to fight for change to take your country back.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:17 | 2609584 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

as if we can even trust that these numbers aren't manipulated either.  To me this is the real financial cliff; losso of all confidence an any gov or corp data.  Mainstream investors see the libor manipulation (which I agree with ZH other market manipulations will be realized), Gov's like Italy may just stop producing info, and those still producing info can't be trusted, regulators continually giving ponzi firms or reckless banks clean bills of health minutes before their death etc....with all this, we see our models and ideas area all based on fantasy.  Massive market pull-out of all investors. 

I really hate thinking just how bad this could get. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:23 | 2609600 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

This calls for a zombie group hug. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 09:23 | 2609601 adr
adr's picture

With July 4th on a wednesday, I would hope claims were down. The week was pretty much a loss for eveything business wise.

Real unadjusted claims are still way above 400k. Amazing considering more than half the jobs out there aren't even eligible for unemployment compensation.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 10:20 | 2609775 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

NSA, jobless claims rise!!!!!!!!! The recovery from hell with Obama advertising the merits of food stamps.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/12/new-solution-to-unemp...

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