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Initial Claims Miss For 7th Week In A Row, "Improve" From Last Week's Bogus Revised Number

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the gaming continues: Initial Claims miss expectations of a 383K print, coming at 387K, a number which next week will be revised to 390K. This is the 7th miss in a row, and 23rd miss of the past 26 weeks. It is also the highest 4 week average since December. But the mainstream media has its soundbite: "initial claims decline by 2,000" because, lo and behold, last week's 386K print was revised to 389K. We have discussed this topic to death: little to add here. The ceremonial scripting by the BLS continues full bore. The only real data point in today's release: those collecting extended claims continue to hit the 99-week cliff, as 42K more drop off Komrade Samov's free lunch dole. Finally, judging by the somewhat muted positive market response to this latest piece of horrible economic news, the data was bad but not bad enough: we need a 400K+ print for the ES to get back to 1,400 it appears.

Full summary of misses in the last 6 months:

 

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Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:40 | 2546478 battle axe
battle axe's picture

YAWN......

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:52 | 2546539 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Always wait for the revisions...

 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:07 | 2546605 sablya
sablya's picture

And the market blithely ignores reality.  It sings a little song like this, la-de-da, Bernanke...tra-la-la Bernanke.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 16:49 | 2547597 short-swap
short-swap's picture

Can someone please explain to me how these numbers are so close to eachother week after week, revision scamming aside? If these are INITIAL claims, that means that each claim is a new, unique individual requesting unemployment benefits, correct? How is it that each week, the number varies by only a couple thousand? Is this actually, like everything else, an extrapolation based on some biased survey? Or are these discrete, actual counts? It would seem to me that there should be a legitimate tracking mechanism to actually count the number of claims. I could see rounding to the nearest thousand to make things clear, but I cannot understand how one week 386K new people file for unemployment and then the next week 387K. Shouldn't there be more volatility or are the exact same number of people laid off or fired each week???

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:41 | 2546480 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

amazing action in the /es. so disgusted. good is good and bad is better

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:44 | 2546494 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Fixed.

"good is good and bad is Ben-er."

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2546499 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@transaccountin

I'm not sure what the downward catalyst will be, but we are close.  Economic data is bad and the Fed passed on lending a helping hand.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:40 | 2546482 miker
miker's picture

THEY are doing everything they can to hold the number below 400,000.  That is a significant threshold.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:50 | 2546531 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

...and likely one that has already been breached.  

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:02 | 2546591 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

Very soon the B.S will catch up even the FED admits it now

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:43 | 2546486 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Funny, this morning Bloomberg TV had simultaneous headlines with one caption that said that claims fell by 2k to 387,000 and right below on the breaking news caption had a headline that said claims rose by 2k to 387,000. So someone obvious wasnt paid off in the news dissemination.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:48 | 2546517 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The truth is much easier than lying, you don't have to remember what you said, what you're going to say, what you want them to hear..., you just tell the truth. I know, it's a radical idea.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:45 | 2547102 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Don't you get it? Claims fall when Barack pays up. The rise when Mitt pays up. If neither out-bribes the other, the headlines are chosen by =rand()

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:42 | 2546488 malikai
malikai's picture

I'm so glad we've recovered. I was starting to get worried.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:43 | 2546490 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Do we have to call it a "cliff"?  I thought we were into Vaporized.  Those on 99 weeks were vaporized by reality.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:50 | 2546528 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Don't they just move from the UE benefits line to the SS/Disability line?

Meet the new boss...same as the old boss.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:59 | 2546847 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

If they're "lucky."  :(

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:44 | 2546496 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The dictator is doing great with the economy.  Exactly why he has attempted every other sleazy diversionary tactic known to the Chicago bozys.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2546497 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

keep the homeless bums off the streets..gestapo er HLS has those jobs..USA one giant prison on it's way run by a dyke at HLS and a fag in the not so whitehouse..some people are more equal than others

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2546500 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

CNBC.com headline "Weekly Claims Lower But 4-Week Average Hits 2012 High"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47902094

Apparently, since no one at CNBC passed those higher-order mathematical constructs (like addition), they assume none of their audience did either.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:55 | 2546561 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the 3 people left that watch CNBC?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:58 | 2546573 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh....so their rating are recovering.......glad to hear it!

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:15 | 2546650 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Jezus, a bunch of babe wannabes who have never sweated a drawdown in their lives reading a tele-prompter and telling me how it is?  Right.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2546502 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Poor gold bugs are getting the "Jerry Sandusky" treatment today.

 

After getting hoodwinked by all the "gold going to 'da moon!" calls going on at King World News.

Probably going to be another stellar day for retail, with more stocks in that group hitting 52 week highs.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:55 | 2546555 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dude....we're up year after year for like 11 years now. We can afford it.

 

Just BTFDs......it's pretty damn easy actually.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:55 | 2546560 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Retail and tech are the "Great Shorts" for Summer 2012.

Many are stealth shorting retail with total conviction.   

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:56 | 2546566 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I'm actually grateful that physical bullion can still be gotten at something close to the "Sandusky-ed" paper price.  Just means there are a lot of naivete still in the market to keep the blue-light specials going...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:59 | 2546576 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

SPAM

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:00 | 2546579 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

 What is "Sandusky Treatment"?? Do you mean Gold bugs are children that  been sexually abused?

For all of Sandusky's victims, GO FUCK YOURSELF ROBOTARD!

Find some other analogies, YOU SICK FUCK!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:08 | 2546618 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the motherfer should be drawn and quartered-there is no downside risk to this kind of perversion any more- most of these f*****s will probably enjoy the prison "social scene"

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | 2546983 skohiu
skohiu's picture

Benchmarks of retail: BBY, JCP and now BBBY....nuff said

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2546505 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Bullshitish.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:46 | 2546506 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

all is well, when you have the monkeys pushing green buttons with bad news!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:46 | 2546507 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

man its been 4 yrs almost since lehman..and this economy still has not recovered..i guess thats what happens when you have 1.2 trillion of losses on paper and use mark to mark to fantasy accounting to tell everyone that the stuff that you have is worth 95 cents on the dollar when the true amount is more like 15cents..

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:52 | 2546544 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

We should be so lucky that the paper losses were only $1.2 trillion.  If that was the extent of it, BLS wouldn't need to lie so much...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:48 | 2546520 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

We here know the fixis in. Most people will only hear the improvement soundbite on a 2 minute upadate on the radio or TV after work today. They will 'hear" with their brain turned OFF and their "political" biases turned ON.

Financially, Europe burns and gold takes a hit. All is as it should with the world.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:49 | 2546522 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

How different the headlines would be if we only reported the corrected numbers a week later for unemployment and a month later for non-farm payroll.  

 

When was the last time an initial estimate remained unchanged?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:49 | 2546525 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

YEAY more upbeat optimism for FREE MONEY!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:55 | 2546563 chanxmanx
chanxmanx's picture

Why isn't the /es_f dropping like it's hot? 

 

ohh... apparently everything around the world is OK. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:56 | 2546567 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

There will be no QE3 until next year, after fiscal cliff fiasco.   Plenty of bad news to rally on until then. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:57 | 2546571 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

In order to fix this someone is going to have to lie harder.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 08:59 | 2546572 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

this is getting to feel like summer of 08 with EVERY piece of bad news shrugged off- of course that was before PPT was in da house.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:04 | 2546594 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So things are getting better, right?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:08 | 2546614 Blue Dog
Blue Dog's picture

It's not just the approximately 400,000 lost jobs every week that are a problem. It's the fact that new jobs were only 65,000 last month. We need 1,733,000 every month just to stay even. Even at 3 million new jobs every month it would take a long time for the economy to fully recover.

The way it is now, it's clear that the economy is continuing to shrink. GDP numbers are bogus because they're adjusted by an artificially low inflation number. The economy didn't grow by 1%. It shrunk by 6%.

All the lost income takes an increasing toll on the economy. People don't have money to spend. They're not buying. Companies can't pay their bills because their customers can't pay them.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:11 | 2546624 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

No customers, no jobs.  All you need to know.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:08 | 2546615 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Bush's fault?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:12 | 2546634 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Still believe the two-party lie?  That's a good sheep.  The banks and financial houses thank you and suggest starting another unfunded war.

 

LMFAO!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:11 | 2546625 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Beating expectations, all      the       way        DOWN.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:43 | 2547092 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Best to countersink.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:19 | 2546668 adr
adr's picture

The market still thinks Ben will unleash more QE. The prescription pain killer addict market is saying, "What do you mean you won't write me another, I have pain, I need it, you can't say no."

Did Ben say more QE? I didn't see it, but the market thinks he did.

I guess that is all he needed to do. Let the addict believe more drugs are on the way. Then the most worthless corporations in the world can keep gantin their directors more stock at ever higher valutations so they can all start buying parts of Greece and Spain.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:23 | 2546681 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Stocks are unshackable, hardly moving while the commodity complex and PMs are getting destroyed. 10 year not doing so much either considering.

The market is broken, the central planners have done a royal job of destroying it.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:30 | 2546713 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

But Jim Cramer just said that lower gas prices mean savings on food and other items, particularly at Walmart so I'm better off, right?  And please don't ask why I was subjected to CNBC.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:40 | 2546752 Dukepinewood69
Dukepinewood69's picture

Just out of curiousity,have the numbers ever been revised down???

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2546844 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Claims down 35K year over year (NSA).  If the data is accurate, we're muddling along.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:30 | 2547025 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Excellent! But once again, more people are going on disability than are leaving welfare rolls. So, IJC is really a joke.\

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/21/economic-stall-speed-existing-homes-sales-fall-philly-fed-index-falls-most-since-august-2011/

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:55 | 2547972 covert
covert's picture

where are the real numbers?

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:11 | 2547765 Morrotzo
Morrotzo's picture

Why would anybody listen to Bureau of Labor Statistics? They are almost always more optimistic than is warranted and are ceasely "revising upwards." Wrong 24 times out of 26! How could anybody care about their 27th prediction? They are clearly trying to make something seem better than it is. With proper numbers and assumptions, and no crooked agenda, you would think they'd at least get it correct 1 time out of every 2.

 

 

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