Initial Claims Miss For 7th Week In A Row, "Improve" From Last Week's Bogus Revised Number

Tyler Durden's picture

And so the gaming continues: Initial Claims miss expectations of a 383K print, coming at 387K, a number which next week will be revised to 390K. This is the 7th miss in a row, and 23rd miss of the past 26 weeks. It is also the highest 4 week average since December. But the mainstream media has its soundbite: "initial claims decline by 2,000" because, lo and behold, last week's 386K print was revised to 389K. We have discussed this topic to death: little to add here. The ceremonial scripting by the BLS continues full bore. The only real data point in today's release: those collecting extended claims continue to hit the 99-week cliff, as 42K more drop off Komrade Samov's free lunch dole. Finally, judging by the somewhat muted positive market response to this latest piece of horrible economic news, the data was bad but not bad enough: we need a 400K+ print for the ES to get back to 1,400 it appears.

Full summary of misses in the last 6 months:

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GetZeeGold's picture



Always wait for the revisions...



sablya's picture

And the market blithely ignores reality.  It sings a little song like this, la-de-da, Bernanke...tra-la-la Bernanke.

short-swap's picture

Can someone please explain to me how these numbers are so close to eachother week after week, revision scamming aside? If these are INITIAL claims, that means that each claim is a new, unique individual requesting unemployment benefits, correct? How is it that each week, the number varies by only a couple thousand? Is this actually, like everything else, an extrapolation based on some biased survey? Or are these discrete, actual counts? It would seem to me that there should be a legitimate tracking mechanism to actually count the number of claims. I could see rounding to the nearest thousand to make things clear, but I cannot understand how one week 386K new people file for unemployment and then the next week 387K. Shouldn't there be more volatility or are the exact same number of people laid off or fired each week???

transaccountin's picture

amazing action in the /es. so disgusted. good is good and bad is better

JPM Hater001's picture


"good is good and bad is Ben-er."

Cursive's picture


I'm not sure what the downward catalyst will be, but we are close.  Economic data is bad and the Fed passed on lending a helping hand.

miker's picture

THEY are doing everything they can to hold the number below 400,000.  That is a significant threshold.

ejmoosa's picture

...and likely one that has already been breached.  

dbomb12's picture

Very soon the B.S will catch up even the FED admits it now

Divided States of America's picture

Funny, this morning Bloomberg TV had simultaneous headlines with one caption that said that claims fell by 2k to 387,000 and right below on the breaking news caption had a headline that said claims rose by 2k to 387,000. So someone obvious wasnt paid off in the news dissemination.

DeadFred's picture

The truth is much easier than lying, you don't have to remember what you said, what you're going to say, what you want them to hear..., you just tell the truth. I know, it's a radical idea.

taniquetil's picture

Don't you get it? Claims fall when Barack pays up. The rise when Mitt pays up. If neither out-bribes the other, the headlines are chosen by =rand()

malikai's picture

I'm so glad we've recovered. I was starting to get worried.

JPM Hater001's picture

Do we have to call it a "cliff"?  I thought we were into Vaporized.  Those on 99 weeks were vaporized by reality.

mayhem_korner's picture



Don't they just move from the UE benefits line to the SS/Disability line?

Meet the new boss...same as the old boss.

MFL8240's picture

The dictator is doing great with the economy.  Exactly why he has attempted every other sleazy diversionary tactic known to the Chicago bozys.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

keep the homeless bums off the streets..gestapo er HLS has those jobs..USA one giant prison on it's way run by a dyke at HLS and a fag in the not so whitehouse..some people are more equal than others

mayhem_korner's picture headline "Weekly Claims Lower But 4-Week Average Hits 2012 High"

Apparently, since no one at CNBC passed those higher-order mathematical constructs (like addition), they assume none of their audience did either.

otto skorzeny's picture

the 3 people left that watch CNBC?

GetZeeGold's picture their rating are recovering.......glad to hear it!


ThisIsBob's picture

Jezus, a bunch of babe wannabes who have never sweated a drawdown in their lives reading a tele-prompter and telling me how it is?  Right.

RobotTrader's picture

Poor gold bugs are getting the "Jerry Sandusky" treatment today.


After getting hoodwinked by all the "gold going to 'da moon!" calls going on at King World News.

Probably going to be another stellar day for retail, with more stocks in that group hitting 52 week highs.

GetZeeGold's picture



Dude....we're up year after year for like 11 years now. We can afford it.


Just's pretty damn easy actually.


slaughterer's picture

Retail and tech are the "Great Shorts" for Summer 2012.

Many are stealth shorting retail with total conviction.   

mayhem_korner's picture



I'm actually grateful that physical bullion can still be gotten at something close to the "Sandusky-ed" paper price.  Just means there are a lot of naivete still in the market to keep the blue-light specials going...

CCanuck's picture

 What is "Sandusky Treatment"?? Do you mean Gold bugs are children that  been sexually abused?

For all of Sandusky's victims, GO FUCK YOURSELF ROBOTARD!

Find some other analogies, YOU SICK FUCK!

otto skorzeny's picture

the motherfer should be drawn and quartered-there is no downside risk to this kind of perversion any more- most of these f*****s will probably enjoy the prison "social scene"

skohiu's picture

Benchmarks of retail: BBY, JCP and now BBBY....nuff said

caimen garou's picture

all is well, when you have the monkeys pushing green buttons with bad news!

mrktwtch2's picture

man its been 4 yrs almost since lehman..and this economy still has not recovered..i guess thats what happens when you have 1.2 trillion of losses on paper and use mark to mark to fantasy accounting to tell everyone that the stuff that you have is worth 95 cents on the dollar when the true amount is more like 15cents..

mayhem_korner's picture



We should be so lucky that the paper losses were only $1.2 trillion.  If that was the extent of it, BLS wouldn't need to lie so much...

newworldorder's picture

We here know the fixis in. Most people will only hear the improvement soundbite on a 2 minute upadate on the radio or TV after work today. They will 'hear" with their brain turned OFF and their "political" biases turned ON.

Financially, Europe burns and gold takes a hit. All is as it should with the world.

ejmoosa's picture

How different the headlines would be if we only reported the corrected numbers a week later for unemployment and a month later for non-farm payroll.  


When was the last time an initial estimate remained unchanged?

SheepDog-One's picture

YEAY more upbeat optimism for FREE MONEY!

chanxmanx's picture

Why isn't the /es_f dropping like it's hot? 


ohh... apparently everything around the world is OK. 

slaughterer's picture

There will be no QE3 until next year, after fiscal cliff fiasco.   Plenty of bad news to rally on until then. 

buzzsaw99's picture

In order to fix this someone is going to have to lie harder.

otto skorzeny's picture

this is getting to feel like summer of 08 with EVERY piece of bad news shrugged off- of course that was before PPT was in da house.

Oldwood's picture

So things are getting better, right?

Blue Dog's picture

It's not just the approximately 400,000 lost jobs every week that are a problem. It's the fact that new jobs were only 65,000 last month. We need 1,733,000 every month just to stay even. Even at 3 million new jobs every month it would take a long time for the economy to fully recover.

The way it is now, it's clear that the economy is continuing to shrink. GDP numbers are bogus because they're adjusted by an artificially low inflation number. The economy didn't grow by 1%. It shrunk by 6%.

All the lost income takes an increasing toll on the economy. People don't have money to spend. They're not buying. Companies can't pay their bills because their customers can't pay them.


ThisIsBob's picture

No customers, no jobs.  All you need to know.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Still believe the two-party lie?  That's a good sheep.  The banks and financial houses thank you and suggest starting another unfunded war.



LawsofPhysics's picture

Beating expectations, all      the       way        DOWN.