This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Claims Miss Big, People Falling Off Extended Claims Soar To 135K, CPI Plunges Most Since December 2008
Another economic data point, another preview of the coming NEW QE (and if Goldman is right, the perpetual NEW "Flowing" QE). Initial claims print at 386K, a number which will be revised to 390K next week, a swing and a miss to expectations of 375K, and not even the mainstream media will be able to come up with tits token idiotic headline that claims decline because they did not, even relative to last week's revised 380K from 377K. This is the 22nd expectations miss in the last 25 reports. Continuing claims also miss expectations of 3270K, printing at 3278K. But the biggest surprise to some (not ZH readers who were warned that 700,000 Are About To Lose Their Extended Jobless Claims Benefits), a massive 135K people fell off the Extended and EUC claims as the 99 week cliff hits more and more. Recall that last week 105K dropped of extended claims. This means that in the past two weeks alone 240,000 people no longer collect the last possible form government unemployment benefits, the most in a two week period since December 2010!. We can only hope they are fat enough to collect the new normal stimulus check: disability.
Claims misses:
Collapse in those collecting extended benefits:
Finally, the main reason why gold is soaring is that CPI joined PPI in wildly missing expectations, dropping by -0.3%, missing expectations of a -0.2% decline, down from an unchanged number previously. This was the biggest CPI decline since December 2008.
Unleash the NEW QE rumors.
»
- 14794 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Go ahead and repeat: can't stop Deflation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBEXSiFzOfU
He he -- TD said "tits."
Subliminal message?
Tits Up.
Futures are up at least...salivating...they love the smell of QE in the morning.
After all, this is all priced in already.
Decoupling or something.
Oh look. Bon Jovi is on CNBC.
Did someone say 'tits'?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP8nnCqK4gE&list=FLeGAOM7ibPwtPLGNel9UVBA&index=18&feature=plpp_video
If your head isn't nodding, you're doing it wrong...
Most of them voted for Obama.
Let's see, futures are up because the moderately bad jobs data make it somewhat more likely that the Fed next week will announce some type of stimulus program that will kick in in a month or three from now and that program will be similar to all the others that have worked sooo well for us. Now that's a trend I want to jump on.
I wonder how many daytraders out there jump for joy when they see a QE hope rally like this, it seems they are so easy to fade.
If you've got DDs and you're a man...you might be disabled.
Ugly.
Do we deserve any better than we are getting?
It's my understanding that, armed with the right lawyer, ANY able-bodied person can get permanent SS disability checks. Takes about 12 to 24 months, guaranteed results, from any decent lawyer who knows how to work the SS system.
That is my understanding also. The lawyers have a list of conditions, like social anxiety disorder, depression, back pain, that can't be verified medically. At that point it's just a matter of paying off the right people (lawyer, doctor, etc.) and you're in. Now admittedly it's not much money, $1000-1500 a month, but if you can get 3-4 SSDI recipients to share a household, well now we're talking....
If either of you think it is easy to get on or stay on SSD you should try it. Oh the joy of being treated like a criminal, and I applied because of a service related injury in 1991, I did not want to apply, I put it off and put it off till there just was no other choice, and do you know when I finally won? Late 2007. Twenty four months my hairy man cracks. Try 18 years. But I was only back paid to early 2005. And all for the grand sum of 936 bucks per month. On top of that there are regular reviews of your case and an expectation of improvement.
And the part that REALLY pisses me off are the MORONS that think it is some form of welfare rather than an insurance pool which I have contributed to since my first job in 1973.
Ah but the neocon mindset does not permit actual facts to leak in, which leaves me no other hope but that karma really does exist and you find out the hard way what a joy it is collecting soucial security.
Your problem is that you are honest... did you not note the part about using the "right" lyer? There is a whole other nation of which you are unaware - where for example ceo's of insolvent corporations are paid generous bonus funded with taxpayer loans. You are just a little behind the times - integrity has no value in the current environment.
Integrity is everything. Thanks for the reminder.
like robert paulson???
I hope it's now clear to all that capitalism has FAILED. Deregulation of the economy simply does not work because, contrary to libertarian dogma, government regulators are more trustworthy and capable at making business decisions than the business owners themselves. Consumers are neither equiped not entitled to make choices about how to spend their money. The government needs to protect consumers from harm by watching out for the little guy.
It would be possible to say that capitalism has failed if it had only been tried. Too bad it's never really been tried.
What successful system would you put in place of capitalism? What are you proposing? Socialism? That's what is failing in Europe.
The people who run that system are running it for their own benefit. There is only a pale reflection of capitalism there.
It is humanity that has failed, as always.
MDB. everyday I giddily wait for a post from you. Your humor is beyond brilliant. Thank you!
Long live Trotsky! MDB your sarcasim is excellent. I wondered if you really beleived what you said or if you are Tyler playing around. Me thinks you are Tyler's alter ego, which is paradoxal since Tyler is Jack's alter ego.
He's (MDB) so cute, kind of like a silly puppy.
Yes, a silly puppy that shits on all the furniture.
"The government needs to protect consumers from harm by watching out for the little guy."
Amen! Paul Krugman for the next Chairman of the FED!
"I hope it's now clear to all that capitalism has FAILED"
"I hope it's now clear to all that cronieism has FAILED."
There, fixed.
"come up with tits token idiotic headline...."
Freudian slip, there, Tyler?
Inflation vs. deflation is a meaningless conversation. The monetary system can't be sustained because math is math. What can't be stopped is the collapse of our debt based monetary system in which virtually all money is loaned into existence with interest attached at its creation. New debt must be issued in order to roll old debt forward. Aggregate debt is required to grow or you have cascading defaults. Deflation vs. Inflation is like choosing between a bullet and a noose. Either will do the trick.
Totally bullish.
Market loves it.
Market loves the sight of more people off the government dole in the morning!
And gold catches the QE bid quickly......
Jaime and friends always bring down the price of gold when they want to buy. And they do get the inside info re the numbers before the rest of us too.
Looking on the bright side at least those 135k people are no longer 'Unemployed'. Things are looking up!
/sarc
And the MSM will continue to baffle us with their bullshit about how all of these people who are no longer eligible for unemployment are suddenly or 'unexpectedly' taking early retirement. Check under you local bridges, overpasses and tent cities for more on the story.
Hah, I look forward to Obama claiming "Last week long term unemployment fell the most in 30 years" in one of his campaign speeches.
And what will Mr. Magic Underpants have to say about it? "Folks, my just RUNNING for office is already having an impact on unemployment, so if you think this is good news just wait till we are the United States of Bain Capital."
but,but we have had under 400,000 claims for 22 weeks straight! msm spin
For the 104th week in a row, new claims down from 2008 highs!
Hope!
400,000 claims X 22 weeks = 8.8 million job losses at least in less than 6 months. A lot of folks who lose jobs do not qualify for un, and a lot who do are forced to defend their right to bennies which can take a while. Those getting new jobs are doing so at average hourly earnings lower than their previous jobs, in aggregate wages are dropping even as prices rise, standards of living are caving.
Heh. You said tits.
Shutup Beavis!
ES rips higher with a break-neck turnaround.
Man, if this weren't so pathetic, it would be downright hilarious watching this epic fraud.
Well ain't that the tits!
Look at her fly. Just keepin' on keepin' on. Big wheel keep on turnin'.
What....a.....fucking....joke.
SURPRISE !!! :)
that wasn't funny.
everything is fine because ES said so!
According to MarketWatch; BREAKING - US Stock Index futures reconsider losses!
As if the /ES was some sort of sentient being?
They have created quite a monster haven't they? I hope, but very much doubt, that the Fed Governers are hanging their heads in shame at this disgusting reaction. Someone, maybe the President no forget that, needs to remind them that the Initial Claims numbers that they have become obsessed with fucking with actually represent real people with families and mortages etc.
Sure goes to show why the velocity of money out there is near zero and why the Fed is force to pump that "flow" to infinity.
Barack Hussein Kardashian says the private sector is just fine. Here is your proof. Since he intends to destroy the private sector it appears he is succeeding.
Stop making fun of Snooki Hussein Obama.
Time for Bloomberg to run the " Stocks higher on stimulus hopes " headline for the billionth time in the last two weeks .
Market soils self in nocturnal emission. Film at 11.
**snicker** Today's Choomberg headline is the home equity ramp...best in 60 years !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/americans-see-biggest-home-equity-jump-in-60-years-mortgages.html
That story completely baffled me. So, homeowners refinanced and brought money to the table to reduce their mortgage balance? Who are these mythical people and where did they get the 5 figure (or more?) pile of cash to pay down their mortgages?
That crawler made me suspicious. Look at the article - it doesn't present any detail of its "analysis" and 90% is just re-telling economc history unrelated to the headline.
Well played Bill D Cat........as predicted - 10.21am BLOOMBERG: US STOCKS INCREASE ON FED SPECULATION
though offcourse gold selling off makes complete sense. These markets are a joke to the point that its not even worth pointing out that there will be no fed action till markets fall and so called "deflation risks" are present so stocks rising on hopes of QE makes no sense, yet these markets make no sense so go figure.
The al queda private sector is doing fine!
On the bright side, if so many people are falling out of extended benefits, then unemployment must be going down!
Because surely those people simply don't want to work, and thus don't deserve to be counted in the labor pool.
cant imagine why thoes people cant find jobs,kfc,mcdonalds,walmart are all looking for a few good poeple
cant imagine why thoes people cant find jobs,kfc,mcdonalds,walmart are all looking for a few good poeple
Yep, they are all the $8.00-$10.00 an hour part TIME POS jobs out there you could want.
Question is IF they take them how do they continue to maintain a family, or much less a household.
THEY cannot.
what about KFC then McDonalds ...
Let see, will this be Bush's fault, Wall Streets fault, Europes fault, Illegal imagrations fault, the rich peoples fault, the republicans fault or Obamas fault? I will bet it is any number of people but Obama takes NO RESPONSIBILITY yet again.
Asked and answered: http://www.gallup.com/poll/155177/Americans-Blame-Bush-Obama-Bad-Economy.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=All%20Gallup%20Headlines%20-%20Economy%20-%20Politics
Never, ever underestimate the idiocy of the American sheeple, I mean electorate.
And this is how the shell game works!!!!! Everyone pay attention to the Bush vs. Obama debate... We'll do some polls... pretend that there are two choices to choose from...keep people firmly planted in one camp or the other. It doesn't matter which camp you choose... you can come up with a laundry list of things that the other side did or did not do to make the problem worse. Turn it into a sport. Get people emotionally invested. It's completely brilliant, if you can only step outside to watch.
Or, somewhat shorter, HEY SHEEPLE, LOOK AT THIS SHINY THING!!!
OOOOOHHH... SHIIIIIINY!!!
Spot-on.
People want the game. They want to be evil and call themselves the good guy. Hence, two parties with each evil side calling the other side evil as if they are the good guys. Everyone thinks they themselves are good and everyone is in reality evil. Knowing this, all the madness in the world makes perfect sense.
I view a little bit differently. I believe the leadership of the system want to be evil and call themselves good... that I agree with. Only they don't see themselves as evil, because sociopaths are wired differently than you or I. But the "people" who get trapped by the game... your average Republican voter, your average Democrat voter... and most of your independents who believe that their vote counts... I think those people are mostly good. They want to be on the good team. They do want the game, as you say... they want to feel like they are doing their part to make the world better... but they are absurdly manipulated and blind to reality.
No. I'm not going to say I was a good guy and was misled. Cheering on the ordinance drops on people for no good reason. Cheering on the empire as it bullies the world. That made me evil. Liberals that stand on the side of the road trying to raise money for murdering babies. They're evil. They aren't trying to be on the good side. They aren't tricked. They're evil just like me. I'm not going to point fingers at politicians and say it is all their fault. I'm not going to deny it. I'll beg forgiveness but not deny it. Only way we can get better is to admit we are evil. That is why people are so put off by Ron Paul's rhetoric. It doesn't spare anyone from having to admit to the truth. The truth is incredibly ugly and scary. All the madness in this world is for not letting the truth see the light of day.
Clearly we see things the same way. We have a minor difference in how much blame to place on those who have not unplugged from the matrix. I understand your POV, and am sympathetic to it... and could be easily swayed towards it. The problem I have... I know too many people who accept the narrative that is placed in front of them, and know that they are not evil people. Friends... family members, etc. Perhaps I'm still plugged in.
The truth is terrifying.
This is one of the best posts I've read here in a long time. Frighteningly refreshing.
I will also indict myself. Before I found ZH, back in the Anonymous days, I was a full-on, flag-waving right-winger. Invade Iraq? America, fuck yeah. Liberals are the cause of all our problems. Rah rah Republicans, etc. etc.
I was the problem, and I still am. I get up every day and go to work "at a job I hate so I can buy shit I don't need" and beg forgiveness because "I have a family to support and a mortgage to pay." Then I post a comment or two on ZH and think I'm unplugged and somehow not one of those sheep. Delusional. It's time to take a cold hard look at what the fuck I'm doing. Do I want my son to grow up to be a hypocrite like his father? Or do I want to make the hard choices and deal with the risks of doing what I know is right?
Thanks for this post. You've prompted some deep introspection here and I think I and my family will be better for it.
'I get up every day and go to work "at a job I hate so I can buy shit I don't need" and beg forgiveness because "I have a family to support and a mortgage to pay."'
That really hits home.
Good luck to you. If you find a way out, I'd love to hear about it.
If only you could step out and watch.....
I voted you down... not because I support Obama... I absolutely do not... but because posts like yours perpetuates the myth that what is happening now is in any way political... it is not. There is no solution to offer to solve our problems.... there is no problem to solve. We selected a system to facilitate economic interaction that requires infinite growth in a world with finite resources. That system will collapse, and there is nothing anyone can do other than tweak the timing. People can down vote this all they want... we are all bred with some sort of "can do" attitude that usually serves us well, but has created an enormous blind spot in the middle of this debate. Politics perpetuates the blind spot.
Preach it brother! I shut down more political debates IRL by injecting that little nugget into debates. Of course my opinion was not asked, nor wanted. :)
But it does shake people from their beliefs. And that is good.
Politicians, as people with power, money, and influence, could change the system. That is in general how politics actually works. In America you are sold 2 ever so slightly different options, which are painted as polar opposites, and the political machine keeps rolling. It should go without saying that the 2 options offered by politicians are always "bad" and "worse". Our democracy is not mob rule, it is posse rule, as in which party commands a larger posse. They set agenda, the idiot "electorate" assents, job well done, congratulations all around, lots of flag-waving.
I never selected a model based on exponential growth, neither did anyone else in "the public", which was presented with a false choice between a federal reserve system and economic catastrophe, FDR's New Deal and annihilation, Reaganomics and annihilation, TARP and martial law, etc. etc. etc. The choices were already made by the people who control the system.
The system will collapse, but only because too few have the integrity/understanding/will/desire/ability to change it for the better. No one forced the politicians to embark on these last 100 years' Odyssey of Idiocy, but they did, "the public" merely assented.
I feel like I'm splitting a hair, because we agree that there are no political solutions, but not because politicians lack the ability, simply because it's the nature of large-scale democratic systems to reward the worst types of people with the most power -or- it's in the nature of such people to take advantage of such an easily gamed and lucrative system as democratic politics.
I can assure you that it won't be O'bomba owning up.
Headline from the blowhorn:
Jobless Claims Up, CPI Down: Time for the Fed to Step In?How's about NO.
That should drop the unemployment number below 8%. Ta da. And all the zombies that will vote for Obama this time and last can proclaim he kept the promise for lowering unemployment.
Look at the reaction to when Obama said the private economy was "doing fine". People (well many of them anyway) are getting tired of the happy talk bullshit from the administration. There has been enough coverage of how the BLS numbers are bullshit that any claim of less than 8% unemployment will not have the desired effect.
I wonder how many people falling off the extended benefits rolls recently is due to the Census. I know personally of 3 people that worked for the Census (2 stay at home moms and 1 retired guy) who were eligible for UE and had no intention of going back to work. They all worked until around August 2010. 90+ weeks later, they would be falling off now or almost falling off.
Yanks better hope that EZ doesn't solve its "issues" any time soon. Because then the glare of the world will be back on the shit show that is the US economy.
I have infinite faith in the Euro leaders to not address their problems but instead to try to kick the can down the road and make things worse.
THE BUCK STOPS HERE!
Now back to work!
And the S&P heading back in the 1320s as I said yesterday. This news does not matter, the market is just moving in a channel
I do recall that you said that and at the time I thought you were wrong. Nice call.
AP newsreader translation (said that with a smile & a sparkle in their voice.)
Bullish for disability.
Glad to hear real numbers being discussed. Tired of the spin. Only by knowing real numbers can we begin to have a meaningful discussion about how to change.
http://www.theglobalroundhouse.com
@GlobalJackie
Go long tents and tarpaulin. Oh wait - ex 99ers can't aford them either. Go long Poorhouse Corporation instead.
Oh yes. I can't wait for the free gardening from all those who will be looking for wild weeds for their soups.
LOL wow,,,hey MillionDollarDumas,,,what is clear, is that LIBERAL LEFTWING CRONY capitalism, practiced by all of your DNC heroes on Wall St and in the WW bank cabal,,,,has FAILED ! No need to go into details.
There is a bright spot though, TRUCKING IS GREAT ! Gonna lead the way out of the 'Bush recession'. Fn lemming.
If you think it's left versus right, or R versus D that caused this, you haven't a clue. It's been a concerted effort. They would admit under water-board questioning that it was essential to grow our economy.
"you haven't a clue."
You could have stopped there. If he didn't get the initial parody of MSM economic reporting, he won't get what you are espousing either.
Time for the "ObamaJob Creation" chart again.
If I hear "we've created 4.3 million jobs in the last 27 months", once more, I will throw up on my own shoes. The disgrace has been in office 41 months, not 27, and with the Feds involvement, they have "spent $4,000,000,000,000. That suggests that each created job, costs $1,000,000, of debt we can never repay.
Most of the media is barely noticing this headline. WSJ doesn't even show it on its main page. Bloomberg mentions it as "unexpected". Even Business Insider buries it as more reason for the Fed to do QE.
No wonder stock futures are up!
If I was elected Dictator......there would be a huge increase in unemployment....million of government workers..accountants...lawyers...Wall Street Market players ....bankers...teachers...would be out of work.....but in two weeks they would be hungry.....so they would get back in the work force...of course at a much cheaper rate and actually work....at something more productive...tough love.....and in 5 years we would have a normal market economy....and much closer family ties...less Apple goodies...but much more time together..and school would be teaching again...things would be earned....and appreciated
Looks like someone is having prison sex with silver
For now, continue to see positive economic indicators, along with negatives. A few months, other months the other. If the economic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate, our numbers will also be ugly.
"A few months, other months the other."
Wow. Your prescience is incredible! Have you ever thought about being an investment adviser? Such bold predictions - things may get better, or worse. It just kinda depends.
so, can we also look at it as new actual unemployment claims were 386k+ the 135k getting layed off from unemployment?
although that 135k should have much stronger of an impact on the economy. This will be intresting to watch play out. people have agrued that lots of people on unemployments are not taking jobs because they can't replace their full salaries, but they could find jobs at the rate of their unemployment check. I will be very interested to see if these people actually get to work, which would show how super long unemployment benefits actually hurt the economy....or that the more liberal view that w/o long term unemployment benefits the economy would have imploded and those jobs would never return.
playing weatherman here, I'm predicting we see a short term shock to the economy, but within 3-6 months, these people get to work. time will tell.
people have agrued that lots of people on unemployments are not taking jobs because they can't replace their full salaries, but they could find jobs at the rate of their unemployment check
People are full of shit too. That claim is valid in an low unemployment environment but it is NOT valid when a quarter of the population is either unemployed or underemployed.
"At the moment, 53 percent of all Americans with a bachelor's degree under the age of 25 are either unemployed or underemployed, and there are more than 100 million working age Americans that do not currently have jobs." http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-bad-jobs-report-is-just-a-very-small-taste-of-the-economic-nightmare-that-is-coming
And now for the anecdote; I have a buddy that had a good job at a car dealership 3 years ago, but he was foolish enough to get a DUI and because his job required driving dealer vehicles they could no longer insure him, so he was pink slipped. He was unemployed 20 months before he found a job in a gas station and that lasted less than a year before going back on unemployment, now almost 9 months later he is manning a cash register at Burger King part time at minimum wage, no benefits, and he will always be part time there because full time people are paid more and get bennies. Was it his fault he fucked up originally, sure, we all fuck up occasionally, only in such a dismal depression does a fuck up become a life or death situation. The worst of it is that even if by magic the economy does ever get better he and millions of others will have lost critical years of advancement on the career ladder as well as saving for the day they can no longer work.
I have read and scrolled and looked for even a HINT of empathy for the 240,000 in just two weeks that have been dropped from unemployment benefits, zip. Most of those people have dependents, and the social services that will have to absorb them just cannot do it at this rate of need increase. Can one of you at least suggest we all think about visiting the local food bank with some food donations? I wonder how many will now be so backed up against the wall that crime will be the only path left to them.
That's it for me today, I am headed to the Grocery Outlet to pick up $20 worth of tuna and cereal to take to the food bank.
I sure 99.9% of people feel sorry for victims of this downturn. I'm concerned with fixing the problem. My point was more that it will be interesting to see if we can determine which view point is correct, i concede i don't have the answer. Your story is all too common and a sad state of the US indeed...but i can also find just as many stories on the otherside of people taking advantage of the situation. It is hard to analzye info with high emotions. I'm glad people do, we do need the so called bleeding hearts bringing the plights of these unfortunately people to our attention...but we also need the cold hearted view that there is a point where saving the weak will kill us all. the answer is obviously in the middle.
Personally, I am willing to help through taxes and donations, but i am not willing to speak for future generations obligations on these debts. If we do, then the cycle will never end.
The bigger question...is it the government's job to act as a long term safety net, or even a safety net at all? and if so, can we even trust they can apply taxpayers money effeciently?
Here comes The Fed to the rescue! A hint of deflation and another lousy jobs report.
Who Let The Fed Out?
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/14/jobless-claims-rise-6k-cpi-falls-0-3-who-let-the-fed-out/
If you got what it takes to suck extended benefits for 99 weeks....you are Obama material ! Pull yourself up with your own panty hose....LOSERS ! Pull yourself up by the wings of your own panty liner ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Not So Rugged Rugged Individualism
You know, I have that exact situation living next door. Over the past year, three folks have stopped going out to work, adding to a fourth, actually disabled. The matriarch is a CSW, and can promote a depression diagnosis. They do keep a low profile, though.
As I do most weeks, I mention YOY claims. Down 27K. When will YOY (NSA) be higher YOY?
You guys are too negative.
This is bullish for homeless shelters, goodwill industries, camping equipment, sex trade work, the drug-prison industry, and recruiting Pentagon cannon fodder.
But best of all, it has a MOST SALUTORY effect on transitioning US laborers to become more wage competitive internationally.
So long as US workers are better fed than Haitians and have more freedoms than Saudis, they have nothing to complain about!
Besides, Obama has promised an even better economy if he is re-elected.
And Romney has promised a better economy if he is elected.
We can't go wrong either way!
The Emaciated Lady is singing.
"Soar" or "sore"?
Rally warning continues...
Despite stockbears with their pre-election jitters, SPX choppy bullish daily & USDX bearish daily charts strengthen.
Significant equity / EURUSD upside & USDX retracement ahead.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
135k fewer in the workforce ... we'll be back to sub-7% unemployment just in time for the election.
He may not be playing with a full deck? He works for the American voters, not the Politbureau. They are formulating their verdict.