Initial Claims Miss Big, People Falling Off Extended Claims Soar To 135K, CPI Plunges Most Since December 2008

Tyler Durden's picture

Another economic data point, another preview of the coming NEW QE (and if Goldman is right, the perpetual NEW "Flowing" QE). Initial claims print at 386K, a number which will be revised to 390K next week, a swing and a miss to expectations of 375K, and not even the mainstream media will be able to come up with tits token idiotic headline that claims decline because they did not, even relative to last week's revised 380K from 377K. This is the 22nd expectations miss in the last 25 reports. Continuing claims also miss expectations of 3270K, printing at 3278K. But the biggest surprise to some (not ZH readers who were warned that 700,000 Are About To Lose Their Extended Jobless Claims Benefits), a massive 135K people fell off the Extended and EUC claims as the 99 week cliff hits more and more. Recall that last week 105K dropped of extended claims. This means that in the past two weeks alone 240,000 people no longer collect the last possible form government unemployment benefits, the most in a two week period since December 2010!. We can only hope they are fat enough to collect the new normal stimulus check: disability.

Claims misses:

Collapse in those collecting extended benefits:

Finally, the main reason why gold is soaring is that CPI joined PPI in wildly missing expectations, dropping by -0.3%, missing expectations of a -0.2% decline, down from an unchanged number previously. This was the biggest CPI decline since December 2008.

Unleash the NEW QE rumors.

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GeneMarchbanks's picture
'CPI Plunges Most Since December 2008'

Go ahead and repeat: can't stop Deflation.

sablya's picture

Futures are up at least...salivating...they love the smell of QE in the morning.  

HelluvaEngineer's picture

After all, this is all priced in already. 

Decoupling or something.

Oh look.  Bon Jovi is on CNBC.

DeadFred's picture

Let's see, futures are up because the moderately bad jobs data make it somewhat more likely that the Fed next week will announce some type of stimulus program that will kick in in a month or three from now and that program will be similar to all the others that have worked sooo well for us. Now that's a trend I want to jump on.

I wonder how many daytraders out there jump for joy when they see a QE hope rally like this, it seems they are so easy to fade.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



We can only hope they are fat enough to collect the new normal stimulus check: disability.

If you've got DDs and you're a might be disabled.

odatruf's picture


Do we deserve any better than we are getting?

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

It's my understanding that, armed with the right lawyer, ANY able-bodied person can get permanent SS disability checks. Takes about 12 to 24 months, guaranteed results, from any decent lawyer who knows how to work the SS system.

ElvisDog's picture

That is my understanding also. The lawyers have a list of conditions, like social anxiety disorder, depression, back pain, that can't be verified medically. At that point it's just a matter of paying off the right people (lawyer, doctor, etc.) and you're in. Now admittedly it's not much money, $1000-1500 a month, but if you can get 3-4 SSDI recipients to share a household, well now we're talking....

boiltherich's picture

If either of you think it is easy to get on or stay on SSD you should try it.  Oh the joy of being treated like a criminal, and I applied because of a service related injury in 1991, I did not want to apply, I put it off and put it off till there just was no other choice, and do you know when I finally won?  Late 2007.  Twenty four months my hairy man cracks.  Try 18 years.  But I was only back paid to early 2005.  And all for the grand sum of 936 bucks per month.  On top of that there are regular reviews of your case and an expectation of improvement.

And the part that REALLY pisses me off are the MORONS that think it is some form of welfare rather than an insurance pool which I have contributed to since my first job in 1973. 

Ah but the neocon mindset does not permit actual facts to leak in, which leaves me no other hope but that karma really does exist and you find out the hard way what a joy it is collecting soucial security. 

mendigo's picture

Your problem is that you are honest... did you not note the part about using the "right" lyer? There is a whole other nation of which you are unaware - where for example ceo's of insolvent corporations are paid generous bonus funded with taxpayer loans. You are just a little behind the times - integrity has no value in the current environment.

goldfish1's picture

Integrity is everything. Thanks for the reminder.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I hope it's now clear to all that capitalism has FAILED. Deregulation of the economy simply does not work because, contrary to libertarian dogma, government regulators are more trustworthy and capable at making business decisions than the business owners themselves. Consumers are neither equiped not entitled to make choices about how to spend their money. The government needs to protect consumers from harm by watching out for the little guy.

sablya's picture

It would be possible to say that capitalism has failed if it had only been tried.  Too bad it's never really been tried.  

What successful system would you put in place of capitalism?  What are you proposing?  Socialism?  That's what is failing in Europe.

The people who run that system are running it for their own benefit.  There is only a pale reflection of capitalism there. 

It is humanity that has failed, as always.

Dixie Frank's picture

MDB. everyday I giddily wait for a post from you.  Your humor is beyond brilliant. Thank you!



Simulacra10's picture

Long live Trotsky! MDB your sarcasim is excellent. I wondered if you really beleived what you said or if you are Tyler playing around. Me thinks you are Tyler's alter ego, which is paradoxal since Tyler is Jack's alter ego. 

prodigious_idea's picture

He's (MDB) so cute, kind of like a silly puppy.

akak's picture

Yes, a silly puppy that shits on all the furniture.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"The government needs to protect consumers from harm by watching out for the little guy."

Amen!  Paul Krugman for the next Chairman of the FED!

JPM Hater001's picture

"I hope it's now clear to all that capitalism has FAILED"

"I hope it's now clear to all that cronieism has FAILED."

There, fixed.

my puppy for prez's picture

"come up with tits token idiotic headline...."

Freudian slip, there, Tyler?

kridkrid's picture

Inflation vs. deflation is a meaningless conversation.  The monetary system can't be sustained because math is math.  What can't be stopped is the collapse of our debt based monetary system in which virtually all money is loaned into existence with interest attached at its creation.  New debt must be issued in order to roll old debt forward.  Aggregate debt is required to grow or you have cascading defaults.  Deflation vs. Inflation is like choosing between a bullet and a noose.  Either will do the trick.

TrumpXVI's picture

Totally bullish.

Market loves it.

Market loves the sight of more people off the government dole in the morning!

ihedgemyhedges's picture

And gold catches the QE bid quickly......

RiverRoad's picture

Jaime and friends always bring down the price of gold when they want to buy.  And they do get the inside info re the numbers before the rest of us too.

Quintus's picture

Looking on the bright side at least those 135k people are no longer 'Unemployed'.  Things are looking up!



Lil Ms.Homesteader's picture

And the MSM will continue to baffle us with their bullshit about how all of these people who are no longer eligible for unemployment are suddenly or 'unexpectedly' taking early retirement. Check under you local bridges, overpasses and tent cities for more on the story.

ElvisDog's picture

Hah, I look forward to Obama claiming "Last week long term unemployment fell the most in 30 years" in one of his campaign speeches.

boiltherich's picture

And what will Mr. Magic Underpants have to say about it?  "Folks, my just RUNNING for office is already having an impact on unemployment, so if you think this is good news just wait till we are the United States of Bain Capital."

caimen garou's picture

but,but we have had under 400,000 claims for 22 weeks straight! msm spin

taniquetil's picture

For  the 104th week in a row, new claims down from 2008 highs!


boiltherich's picture

400,000 claims X 22 weeks = 8.8 million job losses at least in less than 6 months.  A lot of folks who lose jobs do not qualify for un, and a lot who do are forced to defend their right to bennies which can take a while.  Those getting new jobs are doing so at average hourly earnings lower than their previous jobs, in aggregate wages are dropping even as prices rise, standards of living are caving. 

Boilermaker's picture

ES rips higher with a break-neck turnaround.

Man, if this weren't so pathetic, it would be downright hilarious watching this epic fraud.

ThisIsBob's picture

Well ain't that the tits!

Boilermaker's picture

Look at her fly.  Just keepin' on keepin' on.  Big wheel keep on turnin'.


caimen garou's picture

everything is fine because ES said so!

HyperLazy's picture

According to MarketWatch; BREAKING - US Stock Index futures reconsider losses!

As if the /ES was some sort of sentient being?

Village Smithy's picture

They have created quite a monster haven't they? I hope, but very much doubt, that the Fed Governers are hanging their heads in shame at this disgusting reaction. Someone, maybe the President no forget that, needs to remind them that the Initial Claims numbers that they have become obsessed with fucking with actually represent real people with families and mortages etc. 

RiverRoad's picture

Sure goes to show why the velocity of money out there is near zero and why the Fed is force to pump that "flow" to infinity.

kralizec's picture

Barack Hussein Kardashian says the private sector is just fine.  Here is your proof.  Since he intends to destroy the private sector it appears he is succeeding.

TrainWreck1's picture

Stop making fun of Snooki Hussein Obama.