Initial Claims Miss Expectations, Rise For Third Consecutive Week For First Time Since August 2010
Initial claims printed +362K, missing consensus of +352K, and up from a upward revised, (of course) 354K. As a reminder, last week's print was expected to be 355K, instead coming at 351K spiking the market far higher. Needless to say, the response would have been far more muted had the number come at its true final print of virtually on top of expectations, but who cares anymore - everyone appears to enjoy lying and being lied to. That this miss comes ahead of a critical NFP print will likely have some scratching their heads especially since this is the first time we have seen three consecutive weeks of rises since August 2010. Also keep in mind next week, today's 362K will be upward revised to 365K. Hence the immediate if not sooner need for more, more, more QE. Continuing claims also missed at 3416K vs exp. of 3400K, and rising from an upwardly revised 3406K. Finally, EUCs and Extended benefits rose by 27K. Finally, when it comes to comparing before and after, we think it always makes sense to see the full picture, not just initial claims, and account for continuing and extended. Here is what it looks like for all those who tell us that the labor situation is as good as it was in 2008.